LogFAQs > #939682678

HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

I work at a medical university that has been doing data modeling just for the cases in the metroplex. As far as I can tell, their model is very accurate now. While they didn't retroactively model what it would look like if they shut down earlier, they could model what the case numbers would look like if we had shut down any later than we did. And the numbers for one and two week delayed are absolutely ridiculously larger. Delaying 1 week is 4x the amount of cases. Delaying 2 weeks is 18x higher.

And this is in an area that did not have an early spike, mind you. It absolutely stands to reason that if the places hit hardest had shut down even a little bit sooner it would have made an enormous difference.

It's theory. Just like the theory modeling on predicted deaths. The reason why it is likely not very accurate though is because it assumes things. In general, since we never had overwhelmed hospitals systems. Whoever has died would have died eventually. Just may have taken longer to get there.

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