Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 297: Mnuchin's Oddysee

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HeroicCrono
05/25/20 12:20:03 PM
#353:


HeroDelTiempo17 posted...
I work at a medical university that has been doing data modeling just for the cases in the metroplex. As far as I can tell, their model is very accurate now. While they didn't retroactively model what it would look like if they shut down earlier, they could model what the case numbers would look like if we had shut down any later than we did. And the numbers for one and two week delayed are absolutely ridiculously larger. Delaying 1 week is 4x the amount of cases. Delaying 2 weeks is 18x higher.

And this is in an area that did not have an early spike, mind you. It absolutely stands to reason that if the places hit hardest had shut down even a little bit sooner it would have made an enormous difference.

The problem with retrospective modeling is you can always find one that fits the data after the fact. If I make 100 models, I'll probably get one that comes close to the data after the fact. It is not the same as predicting it beforehand, because no one will take me seriously if I present 100 models and then brag that one of them was right. But with retrospective modeling, you can just not publish the models that were wrong and it looks like you "predicted" things.

As an Econ major I'm well aware of this problem which absolutely plagues the field. The hard sciences generally give very little credibility to retrospective modeling but in Econ we have no choice as it's hard to design macroeconomic experiments due to the scale and number of variables.
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TheRock1525
05/25/20 12:21:38 PM
#354:


SmartMuffin posted...
When half the country is under indefinite house arrest because Fauci said so
It's amazing when we see all 50 states open up and you still argue "we're under house arrest!"

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Dancedreamer
05/25/20 12:23:10 PM
#355:


SmartMuffin posted...
When half the country is under indefinite house arrest because Fauci said so, and the libertarian presidential candidate thinks that "federal civil asset forfeiture" is the issue that is going to get people to care about her.

When 'libertarians' are okay with the government taking your assets without any sort of trial.

Face fucking palm.

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SmartMuffin
05/25/20 12:23:11 PM
#356:


"you can go to this small list of businesses if they comply with these onerous regulations that make it impossible for them to actually turn a profit" is not "opened up."

As far as I can tell, there isn't a single state that is truly open in the "feel free to do whatever you were doing back in February" sense. Not officially at least.

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SmartMuffin
05/25/20 12:23:53 PM
#357:


When 'libertarians' are okay with the government taking your assets without any sort of trial.

I'm not okay with it. Asset forfeiture sucks. It should be immediately abolished.

It's also like way way down on the priority list at this exact moment. And is a technocratic issue that 99% of the general public doesn't give a single solitary shit about.

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HeroDelTiempo17
05/25/20 12:24:37 PM
#358:


HeroicCrono posted...
The problem with retrospective modeling is you can always find one that fits the data after the fact. If I make 100 models, I'll probably get one that comes close to the data after the fact. It is not the same as predicting it beforehand, because no one will take me seriously if I present 100 models and then brag that one of them was right. But with retrospective modeling, you can just not publish the models that were wrong and it looks like you "predicted" things.

As an Econ major I'm well aware of this problem which absolutely plagues the field. The hard sciences generally give very little credibility to retrospective modeling but in Econ we have no choice as it's hard to design macroeconomic experiments due to the scale and number of variables.

I mean, they most likely did this but they aren't trying to say "look how right we were!"

They're using the model to predict future cases, then verifying the accuracy of their model of choice by applying it to old data to make sure it actually lines up with real data. More accurately, they probably did that in the other order and simply selected the most accurate model to use going forward like you say.

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Dancedreamer
05/25/20 12:25:47 PM
#359:


I mean what she said definitely appeals to me. Releasing offenders of non-violent victimless crimes? End civil asset forefiture? It's one of the few things I could agree with Libertarians on!

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SmartMuffin
05/25/20 12:27:52 PM
#360:


Also to be really technical, what she's saying is that she would end federal drug laws/asset forfeiture, which is only a small subset of all drug laws/asset forfeiture that actually happens.

It's cool and it should happen but it's a super minor deal all things considered.

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TheRock1525
05/25/20 12:28:28 PM
#361:


SmartMuffin posted...
"you can go to this small list of businesses if they comply with these onerous regulations that make it impossible for them to actually turn a profit" is not "opened up."
Literally every fucking thing is open in Florida.

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Grimlyn
05/25/20 12:33:30 PM
#362:


SmartMuffin posted...
It's cool and it should happen
so what the fuck are you complaining about

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SmartMuffin
05/25/20 12:36:40 PM
#363:


I just told you - that it's a ridiculously low priority issue that nobody cares about right now.

It would be like if Biden made abolishing the penny his #1 campaign issue. It's like yeah, do it, that's good and makes sense, but it's still a really dumb thing to be talking about right now that shows you aren't a serious candidate...

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Dancedreamer
05/25/20 12:40:23 PM
#364:


To be fair, she's running third party. Which means she already isn't a serious candidate.

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SmartMuffin
05/25/20 12:42:43 PM
#365:


Dancedreamer posted...
To be fair, she's running third party. Which means she already isn't a serious candidate.

So she should maximize for "getting the most attention possible."

Which you do by taking a firm, non-mainstream stance on the culturally dominant issue of the day (lockdowns). Not by pointing to obscure minutiae the average person has never even heard of.

At least Vermin Supreme could get media interviews because he wore a boot on his head and talked about ponies...

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Xeybozn
05/25/20 12:44:27 PM
#366:


Dancedreamer posted...
To be fair, she's running third party. Which means she already isn't a serious candidate.

This. If the Libertarian Party actually had ideas popular enough to win elections, they'd have either replaced or taken over one of the major parties by now.
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Inviso
05/25/20 12:45:31 PM
#367:


SmartMuffin posted...
So she should maximize for "getting the most attention possible."

Which you do by taking a firm, non-mainstream stance on the culturally dominant issue of the day (lockdowns). Not by pointing to obscure minutiae the average person has never even heard of.

At least Vermin Supreme could get media interviews because he wore a boot on his head and talked about ponies...

So she should make the Libertarian Party a COMPLETE joke by railing against an issue that only self-centered assholes have a problem with, just to garner attention?

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Jakyl25
05/25/20 12:58:11 PM
#368:


Does the Libertarian Party think theres more potential in converting Republicans, or converting non-voters?
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Suprak the Stud
05/25/20 12:58:27 PM
#369:


SmartMuffin posted...
https://twitter.com/Jo4liberty/status/1264727587244445700

When half the country is under indefinite house arrest because Fauci said so, and the libertarian presidential candidate thinks that "federal civil asset forfeiture" is the issue that is going to get people to care about her.

Face-fucking-palm.

I very much care about civil asset forfeiture and did an "ooh hey that's pretty cool" eyebrow raise at that tweet when I saw it. So nyah.

Also you know the first part of that isn't true so I'm not going to bother arguing with you about it.

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Mr Lasastryke
05/25/20 1:34:18 PM
#370:


SmartMuffin posted...
"you can go to this small list of businesses if they comply with these onerous regulations that make it impossible for them to actually turn a profit" is not "opened up."

SmartMuffin also said...
States that are re-opening are doing fine.

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iiaattgg
05/25/20 1:39:10 PM
#371:


Boring argument yall are having

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Sess
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Mr Lasastryke
05/25/20 1:40:04 PM
#372:


it's a lot more interesting than your attacks on biden

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ChaosTonyV4
05/25/20 1:47:24 PM
#373:


iiaattgg posted...
Boring argument yall are having

Yeah, totally this, honestly. Its flat-Earth adjacent as far as Im concerned.

The really important argument should be about UBIs and stimulus, because staying closed without it is literally forcing people to choose MAYBE catching the virus or DEFINITELY falling behind on their bills.

Everything else is just a stats comparison between wildly different states that cause everyone to draw different and totally impotent conclusions.

Mr Lasastryke posted...
it's a lot more interesting than your attacks on biden

Is Sess really attacking Biden all that much? Does Biden not say objectively hilariousthus, interestingshit constantly?

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Mr Lasastryke
05/25/20 1:49:22 PM
#374:


i didn't say he attacked biden much!

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iiaattgg
05/25/20 1:49:39 PM
#375:


Yeah LOL like i might have just said the black comment was bad but like i never post about the dude. Are you okay?

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Sess
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iiaattgg
05/25/20 1:51:33 PM
#376:


Laser im starting to think you dont like me!

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Sess
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HeroDelTiempo17
05/25/20 1:53:22 PM
#377:


ChaosTonyV4 posted...


The really important argument should be about UBIs and stimulus, because staying closed without it is literally forcing people to choose MAYBE catching the virus or DEFINITELY falling behind on their bills.

Everything else is just a stats comparison between wildly different states that cause everyone to draw different and totally impotent conclusions.

Yeah but even that isn't an interesting argument because the need for more UBI/stimulus has been apparent for weeks and the government hasn't moved on it. There's nothing to discuss.

All we can do is watch numbers go up

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Mr Lasastryke
05/25/20 2:29:40 PM
#378:


iiaattgg posted...
Yeah LOL like i might have just said the black comment was bad but like i never post about the dude. Are you okay?

iiaattgg 5/6/2020 2:34:47 PM#193
I mean I think she would be a better choice for our country than Joe Biden

you're denying that you posted this?

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MoogleKupo141
05/25/20 2:33:43 PM
#379:


who is the she in that post

without context that barely even reads as negative about Biden, its just positive about someone else
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Mr Lasastryke
05/25/20 2:38:35 PM
#380:


sess said "i never post about the dude." i just cited a post where he did, in fact, post about the dude. why are you defending him?

(the "she" was hillary)

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iiaattgg
05/25/20 2:39:22 PM
#381:


My boy went back like 3 weeks to find one side comment i made to justify some minor point in a silly meaningless argument

I miss the asset forfeiture talk yall were having

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Sess
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Mr Lasastryke
05/25/20 2:40:58 PM
#382:


fuck off

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iiaattgg
05/25/20 2:41:06 PM
#383:


And yeah, that was less negative biden and more pro hillary

You should go back and see who i voted for in my primary since you care about this so much. It might surprise yoy

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Sess
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iiaattgg
05/25/20 2:43:12 PM
#384:


Mr Lasastryke posted...
fuck off
Im not entirely sure why you are acting this way. All i said was the argument was boring and you blew a freaking gasket

I repeatedly apologize for past behavior and try to extend the olive branch but you just choose to be a fucking dick all the time man

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Sess
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MoogleKupo141
05/25/20 2:43:32 PM
#385:


Mr Lasastryke posted...
sess said "i never post about the dude." i just cited a post where he did, in fact, post about the dude. why are you defending him?

(the "she" was hillary)


because the first thing you said that lead us here was its a lot more interesting than your attacks on biden so I kind of figured you would pull up one of those attacks

showing that he has not literally never mentioned Biden isnt the impressive gotcha you seem to think it is. he obviously wasnt using the word never completely literally
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Mr Lasastryke
05/25/20 2:50:17 PM
#386:


iiaattgg posted...
Im not entirely sure why you are acting this way. All i said was the argument was boring and you blew a freaking gasket

I repeatedly apologize for past behavior and try to extend the olive branch but you just choose to be a fucking dick all the time man

oh, give me a fucking break.

first you go "i never post about biden! ARE YOU OKAY?" as if i'm some crazy person who's hallucinating that you made posts about biden in the past.

then i go searching in my archive for posts you made about biden (which isn't something i greatly enjoy doing or anything) and find an example, and instead of saying "oh looks like my post was totally wrong sorry," you go "MY BOY [which is condescending] went back 3 weeks to find a post CAN WE GO BACK TO THE ASSET FORFEITURE TALK PLEASE THESE LASA POSTS ARE SO TERRIBLE." you're creating a pointless argument by being objectively wrong and then you complain that said argument sucks.

and then I'M the "fucking dick." sure.

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Mr Lasastryke
05/25/20 2:51:52 PM
#387:


MoogleKupo141 posted...
he obviously wasnt using the word never completely literally

spoilers: he made way more posts about biden than just that one.

i could look for more in my archive but it would save us all a lot of time if sess would just admit that he's talking out of his ass for no reason, apologize and move on.

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Corrik7
05/25/20 2:54:32 PM
#388:


Oh god. Lasa is being an unpleasant person take #879.

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Mr Lasastryke
05/25/20 2:59:25 PM
#389:


Corrik7 posted...
Oh god. Lasa is being an unpleasant person take #879.

shut up douchebag

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iiaattgg
05/25/20 3:00:16 PM
#390:


Mr Lasastryke posted...
oh, give me a fucking break.

first you go "i never post about biden! ARE YOU OKAY?" as if i'm some crazy person who's hallucinating that you made posts about biden in the past.

then i go searching in my archive for posts you made about biden (which isn't something i greatly enjoy doing or anything) and find an example, and instead of saying "oh looks like my post was totally wrong sorry," you go "MY BOY [which is condescending] went back 3 weeks to find a post CAN WE GO BACK TO THE ASSET FORFEITURE TALK PLEASE THESE LASA POSTS ARE SO TERRIBLE." you're creating a pointless argument by being objectively wrong and then you complain that said argument sucks.

and then I'M the "fucking dick." sure.
I hate to break it to you man but you are sounding like a lunatic

I dont post about biden here. You think i do because you have a crazy hatred of me. You had to go back three weeks to find some side comment that was not even negative about him. You took a potshot at me for no reason, and instesd of just saying "my bad i was being a dick" you double down and act like more of one. I hope the rest of the topic sees whats going on here, its pretty clear that you went off the rails here

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ChaosTonyV4
05/25/20 3:01:18 PM
#391:


Lasa: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LaRBGBHsjU8

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SmartMuffin
05/25/20 3:01:37 PM
#392:


Jakyl25 posted...
Does the Libertarian Party think theres more potential in converting Republicans, or converting non-voters?

converting Democrats, actually

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MoogleKupo141
05/25/20 3:01:39 PM
#393:


Mr Lasastryke posted...


spoilers: he made way more posts about biden than just that one.

i could look for more in my archive but it would save us all a lot of time if sess would just admit that he's talking out of his ass for no reason, apologize and move on.


you found a post from like three weeks ago. If hes posting about Biden like once every three weeks that is very infrequent

maybe slightly downplaying how often he mentions joe Biden in a post isnt something he needs to apologize for, it could not possibly matter less. you could save yourself the time of looking into the archive by not caring about this because its silly and meaningless.

Im a pretty objective observer here and you look worse than him in this interaction to me.
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iiaattgg
05/25/20 3:02:41 PM
#394:


Mr Lasastryke posted...
spoilers: he made way more posts about biden than just that one.

i could look for more in my archive but it would save us all a lot of time if sess would just admit that he's talking out of his ass for no reason, apologize and move on.
I said that the black comment was disgusting and that hillary would have been a better option (which wasnt even meant to be anti biden, just that she would have been a better president). Other than that? I cant recall. I may have when he said something weird, but nothing stands out. Again i encourage you to go see who i voted for in the primary. You are embarrassing yourself here

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Corrik7
05/25/20 3:04:27 PM
#395:


Lasa I think isn't good with norms of society, iiaattgg. Not sure he can help the way he acts.

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MoogleKupo141
05/25/20 3:05:56 PM
#396:


I mean I dont know if its because English isnt your native language or what, but it seems like you took him saying I never post about Biden to mean I have never posted about Biden, but its meant to convey posting about Biden is not something I generally do.
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Mr Lasastryke
05/25/20 3:05:56 PM
#397:


MoogleKupo141 posted...
you found a post from like three weeks ago. If hes posting about Biden like once every three weeks that is very infrequent

maybe slightly downplaying how often he mentions joe Biden in a post isnt something he needs to apologize for, it could not possibly matter less. you could save yourself the time of looking into the archive by not caring about this because its silly and meaningless.

Im a pretty objective observer here and you look worse than him in this interaction to me.

"sess made a post that was wrong. you pointed out how he was wrong. you look worse than him."

you're full of shit on this one. i expected better from you.

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iiaattgg
05/25/20 3:06:37 PM
#398:


Corrik7 posted...
Lasa I think isn't good with norms of society, iiaattgg. Not sure he can help the way he acts.
Heres the thing. I have been a big dick to the guy for many years. I apologized. If he doesnt want to talk to me, i understand. If he wants to ignore me, thats his right. If he wants to call me names and flame me, sure i deserve it. But this kinda act does him more harm than good

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iiaattgg
05/25/20 3:07:19 PM
#399:


MoogleKupo141 posted...
I mean I dont know if its because English isnt your native language or what, but it seems like you took him saying I never post about Biden to mean I have never posted about Biden, but its meant to convey posting about Biden is not something I generally do.
Bingo

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Sess
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Corrik7
05/25/20 3:08:04 PM
#400:


iiaattgg posted...
Heres the thing. I have been a big dick to the guy for many years. I apologized. If he doesnt want to talk to me, i understand. If he wants to ignore me, thats his right. If he wants to call me names and flame me, sure i deserve it. But this kinda act does him more harm than good
He is like this to everyone.

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iiaattgg
05/25/20 3:08:34 PM
#401:


Mr Lasastryke posted...
"sess made a post that was wrong. you pointed out how he was wrong. you look worse than him."

you're full of shit on this one. i expected better from you.

I dont think people are concerned about the content of the argument as we sre you acting like a total moonman


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Mr Lasastryke
05/25/20 3:12:46 PM
#402:


MoogleKupo141 posted...
I mean I dont know if its because English isnt your native language or what, but it seems like you took him saying I never post about Biden to mean I have never posted about Biden, but its meant to convey posting about Biden is not something I generally do.

ok but why does it matter if he generally posts about biden? i never claimed every politics topic is filled with sess posts about biden. one of the first things i said during this argument was "i didn't say he attacked biden much."

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