Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 288: Ventilators! Mount Up

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pyresword
03/31/20 10:38:51 AM
#152:


Also this is an old article from a few days ago which I already posted either here or in the coronavirus thread, but there's a relevant segment.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/business/economy/coronavirus-economy.html

Mr. Eichenbaum and his colleagues say the optimal policy assessing economic losses alongside lives requires restrictions that slow the economy substantially. Under their approach, the decline in consumption in 2020 more than doubles, to $1.8 trillion [from 0.8 trillion], but the deaths drop by half a million people. That would amount to $2 million in lost economic activity per life saved.


Jobless people sometimes commit suicide. The poor are likelier to die if they get sick. Mr. Viscusi estimates that across the population, every loss of income of $100 million in the economy causes one additional death.


If the economists cited by this article are both competent and trustworthy (an assumption I am not prepared to evaluate), then the economic fallout resulting from government action to contain the virus will cause only 10,000 additional deaths. So, those are the numbers we're dealing with.

Edit: Wait, I guess to clarify, this is under their "optimal policy". From my memory we are currently on a similar trajectory to what the article describes that optimal policy as being, but it also depends on future actions.
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Free-Speech
03/31/20 10:42:52 AM
#153:


TheRock1525 posted...
I'd tell you to have an account bet but you'll just get banned again anyway.

that's cold


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SephG
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Free-Speech
03/31/20 10:44:52 AM
#154:


Jakyl25 posted...
Youre...aware of the curve were on with deaths right?
I am aware of how data can be used to fit any narrative, yes.

I mean, when you adjust per capita, the rate of increase really doesn't look that bad right?

https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1244663595524292610/photo/1

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SephG
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Jakyl25
03/31/20 10:46:36 AM
#155:


Free-Speech posted...
I am aware of how data can be used to fit any narrative, yes.

I mean, when you adjust per capita, the rate of increase really doesn't look that bad right?


You werent talking about anything but pure bottom line number of deaths though
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Free-Speech
03/31/20 10:51:48 AM
#156:


34,200 deaths from the flu last season. By end of summer, if COVID mortality is under that number, you owe me and the country a big apology.

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SephG
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Jakyl25
03/31/20 10:54:25 AM
#157:


Dude well be close to beating that by the end of April
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Mr Lasastryke
03/31/20 10:54:44 AM
#158:


i still don't get why flu deaths should be the gold standard that decides whether or not the government should take action to battle covid.

if there's tons of flu deaths, shouldn't the conclusion be that... maybe flu deaths are a bigger deal than everyone thought?

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Jakyl25
03/31/20 10:57:03 AM
#159:


Mr Lasastryke posted...
i still don't get why flu deaths should be the gold standard that decides whether or not the government should take action to battle covid.

if there's tons of flu deaths, shouldn't the conclusion be that... maybe flu deaths are a bigger deal than everyone thought?


Would not be opposed to mandatory flu shots every year if you are not immunocompromised
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Not_an_Owl
03/31/20 12:22:44 PM
#160:


Jakyl25 posted...
Would not be opposed to mandatory flu shots every year if you are not immunocompromised
So long as there's no cost at the point of service, sure!

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red sox 777
03/31/20 12:23:36 PM
#161:


Mr Lasastryke posted...
i still don't get why flu deaths should be the gold standard that decides whether or not the government should take action to battle covid.

if there's tons of flu deaths, shouldn't the conclusion be that... maybe flu deaths are a bigger deal than everyone thought?

At some point as a society we have to take risks. For instance, suppose we pursued the extreme solution of placing everyone in isolation cells for their whole lives. No one gets sick from a transmittable disease again, but the whole population starves when we run out of food.

This is the kind of thing the free market is good for deciding. If you ask a government official to decide how many dollars are worth one life, obviously that official is in no position to decide that. So you let people decide themselves. Do they want to isolate themselves at home forever to escape the flu? Isolate themselves only in the winter? Get a flu vaccine? And the free market reaches a solution that lets each person choose their own risk exposure, on all fronts.

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red sox 777
03/31/20 12:25:31 PM
#162:


Jakyl25 posted...
Dude well be close to beating that by the end of April

April is probably going to constitute a majority of total deaths we suffer from this this year. Exponential decay is the flip side of exponential growth.

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red sox 777
03/31/20 12:27:50 PM
#163:


That said, if we have the same number of deaths as the flu after locking down the country for 2 months, that means this is a much more dangerous disease, right? We even have a control to work with - you can compare the percentage of flu deaths coming in the second half of March and April this year with what it is historically. If it's markedly lower, that means the social distancing tactics are working. Because they should hit the flu equally hard.

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Suprak the Stud
03/31/20 12:32:18 PM
#164:


Strange poll from Harvard-Harris yesterday:

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/HHP_March2020_RegisteredVoters_Topline.pdf

Approval of Trump's handling of the crisis: Net +0
Overall Trump approval rating: -4
Biden vs. Trump: Biden +10 (Sanders is only +6)

I have a hard time imagining that if Trump's handling of the crisis is positive or at least non-negative, and his overall approval rating is only low single digit negatives, that Biden is still able to put up those kind of numbers on Trump.

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pyresword
03/31/20 12:37:17 PM
#165:


pyresword posted...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/business/economy/coronavirus-economy.html

Edit: Wait, I guess to clarify, this is under their "optimal policy". From my memory we are currently on a similar trajectory to what the article describes that optimal policy as being, but it also depends on future actions.

So I dug into the actual paper/study here. Earlier I had a longer post written out with quotes that I lost when GameFAQ's went into read-only that I don't have the motivation to reproduce. The highlights:

--The "optimal policy" leading to the numbers given by the NYT article involves immediately imposing "severe" containment measures at t=0 weeks and slowly ramping up containment until a time of t=32 weeks around when the infection peaks, after which containment is slowly ramped down. Note that the time is defined from point of first infection I believe, which means we're currently at about t=12 weeks. Since containment was not started at t=0, the details of the ideal policy (when assuming containment is implemented starting around t=8-10 weeks) involves more severe containment and an infection peak which happens sooner than above.

--The paper does not provide a good way to translate their abstract measure of containment policies into the real world. So, I don't know whether government mandated lockdowns are more, less, or equally severe to the measures recommended in their mathematically optimal policy.

--More detail on the above is that it looks like if I'm interpreting it correctly, they model the effect of government mandated containment policies in the same manner as government-imposed taxation on consumer consumption. (A containment policy of "40%" means that the net effect of a containment policy is to artificially reduce consumption from the free market value by an amount equivalent to a 40% tax. Note the model also considers that the free market will change its behavior on its own as people go out less often for purchases for fear of getting the virus.) The best translation the paper gives is that the 40% metric in their "optimal policy" starting from t=0 is "severe" containment, and a containment value of 250% is considered "draconian". The NYT article interprets "severe" to be consistent with government-imposed lockdowns, but as far as I can tell the study itself does not attempt to do this in any way other than the "severe" and "draconian" qualitative descriptions I gave above.

--One other tidbit mentioned by both the study and the NYT article is that the results suggest ending containment prematurely results in effectively no economic benefits but does result in substantial increases in death totals.
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Suprak the Stud
03/31/20 12:39:18 PM
#166:


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-biden-choose-a-running-mate-based-on-electability-ideology-or-identity/

538 trying to work out who would make the most sense as a VP pick from a cost-benefit standpoint.

Spoiler: Harris, Abrams, Duckworth score highest.

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Moops?
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FFDragon
03/31/20 12:43:04 PM
#167:


Harris would make me not drink the Windex for what it's worth.

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SmartMuffin
03/31/20 3:00:19 PM
#168:


Something that I find kind of amusing is that we've all spent the past four years being told that "stop and frisk" is an evil and racist policy.

And yet, everyone's proposed solution to COVID involves some sort of "testing and certification." So we're basically creating a system wherein law enforcement will be allowed (encouraged?) to stop everyone they see and demand their papers.

I'm sure this will have no negative effects whatsoever.

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ChaosTonyV4
03/31/20 3:06:15 PM
#169:


Suprak the Stud posted...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-biden-choose-a-running-mate-based-on-electability-ideology-or-identity/

538 trying to work out who would make the most sense as a VP pick from a cost-benefit standpoint.

Spoiler: Harris, Abrams, Duckworth score highest.

FFDragon posted...
Harris would make me not drink the Windex for what it's worth.

I could handle Kamala. Abrams is my kryptonite pick.

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Leafeon13N
03/31/20 3:23:04 PM
#170:


Mr Lasastryke posted...
i still don't get why flu deaths should be the gold standard that decides whether or not the government should take action to battle covid.

if there's tons of flu deaths, shouldn't the conclusion be that... maybe flu deaths are a bigger deal than everyone thought?
Flu deaths have always been a horrible stat to cite because the flu has many different strains on any given year. This is a single strand of coronavirus that is going to be more deadly than every single strain of the flu combined.
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Suprak the Stud
03/31/20 3:26:42 PM
#171:


I get Harris not being your favorite, but I have a tough time understanding someone that prefers Biden over Harris in the first place. I'd take Harris in a heartbeat.

But yeah I agree with Tony that Abrams is far and away the worst of that group of three. I see 538's arguments, but she hasn't held any major office and I don't think she would have any pull, at all. There are no kryptonite picks for me out of anyone he could reasonably pick, but Abrams is the one that I feel like would be the one that confuses me the most.

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Moops?
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Corrik7
03/31/20 3:28:04 PM
#172:


https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/politics/trump-white-house-guidelines-coronavirus/index.html

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Jakyl25
03/31/20 3:53:25 PM
#173:


As March finally ends, I was reminded that when March began, Pete Buttigieg was still in the Democratic primary

What a month
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ChaosTonyV4
03/31/20 4:15:51 PM
#174:


Jakyl25 posted...
As March finally ends, I was reminded that when March began, Pete Buttigieg was still in the Democratic primary

What a month

Not only that, he won Iowa and dropped out already.

Truly an unprecedented campaign, but not in a good way.

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Leafeon13N
03/31/20 4:19:53 PM
#175:


ChaosTonyV4 posted...
Not only that, he won Iowa and dropped out already.

Truly an unprecedented campaign, but not in a good way.
Poor dude polled pretty much literally 0 with black voters.
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MoogleKupo141
03/31/20 4:20:12 PM
#176:


Jesus i cant believe that was this month

March has been three years lonG
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TheRock1525
03/31/20 4:31:26 PM
#177:


Yeah I was just thinking about how March felt like the longest month ever.

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Kinglicious
03/31/20 4:42:09 PM
#178:


ChaosTonyV4 posted...
I could handle Kamala. Abrams is my kryptonite pick.

I'm a no for both of these.


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LordoftheMorons
03/31/20 4:43:03 PM
#179:


Jakyl25 posted...
Would not be opposed to mandatory flu shots every year if you are not immunocompromised

Be careful, youre gonna force Sephy to call you a nazi and get banned again!

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Kinglicious
03/31/20 4:44:05 PM
#180:


MoogleKupo141 posted...
Jesus i cant believe that was this month

March has been three years lonG

You remember world war 3 memes just 2 months ago

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LordoftheMorons
03/31/20 4:48:06 PM
#181:


https://twitter.com/jon_m_green/status/1244765744342208512?s=21

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Peace___Frog
03/31/20 4:50:00 PM
#182:


Ok, that's pretty good

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red sox 777
03/31/20 4:56:38 PM
#183:


Yeah please stop getting Sephy banned people. He is by far the most entertaining poster on here. I want more discussions about pandemic modeling and fewer circular firing squads with Bernie/Biden fans declaring each other to be heathens.

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red13n
03/31/20 4:58:21 PM
#184:


red sox 777 posted...
Yeah please stop getting Sephy banned people. He is by far the most entertaining poster on here. I want more discussions about pandemic modeling and fewer circular firing squads with Bernie/Biden fans declaring each other to be heathens.

Hey now, I call anyone voting for Trump either literally or passively by staying home or voting third party to be a heathen.

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xp1337
03/31/20 4:59:06 PM
#185:


I've long thought Harris would strengthen the ticket the most with a Biden nomination. Duckworth is a good pick too. I think Whitmer has emerged as a dark horse what with Trump beefing with her over the pandemic but idk if she even wants the job.

I used to be okay with Abrams but have cooled on that choice over the course of the primaries. I know Warren is occasionally brought up but I think she's more valuable in the Senate tbqh. Hell, probably more valuable as a Cabinet official than a VP.

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red13n
03/31/20 5:00:27 PM
#186:


If Harris weren't from California I think she'd be a good pick but that alone I think makes her a less likely option.

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SmartMuffin
03/31/20 5:00:34 PM
#187:


https://www.mcall.com/news/police/mc-nws-wilson-murder-suicide-update-20200331-ykvwbq4lgnglhpcenvr33lsd2m-story.html

expect much more of this

depressions also cause deaths

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red13n
03/31/20 5:02:43 PM
#188:


SmartMuffin posted...
https://www.mcall.com/news/police/mc-nws-wilson-murder-suicide-update-20200331-ykvwbq4lgnglhpcenvr33lsd2m-story.html

expect much more of this

depressions also cause deaths

Remind me how many people this virus killed yesterday?

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red13n
03/31/20 5:03:25 PM
#189:


Oh I don't even have to ask for yesterday because today already killed more.

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SmartMuffin
03/31/20 5:09:04 PM
#190:


Remind me how many people this virus killed yesterday?

Impossible to say, because there is no globally consistent method of attributing deaths to COVID. And because many jurisdictions are just outright lying about it.

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Mr Lasastryke
03/31/20 5:17:38 PM
#191:


SmartMuffin posted...
https://www.mcall.com/news/police/mc-nws-wilson-murder-suicide-update-20200331-ykvwbq4lgnglhpcenvr33lsd2m-story.html

expect much more of this

depressions also cause deaths

are there more depression suicides than flu deaths

if not this doesn't matter

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LordoftheMorons
03/31/20 5:22:43 PM
#192:


https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1245097450865487872

What a strong show of leadership

(I'm definitely reading this as him realizing a shutdown is the right call but being too much of a fucking coward to do it without political cover from Trump)

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StealThisSheen
03/31/20 5:37:18 PM
#193:


SmartMuffin posted...
https://www.mcall.com/news/police/mc-nws-wilson-murder-suicide-update-20200331-ykvwbq4lgnglhpcenvr33lsd2m-story.html

expect much more of this

depressions also cause deaths

wait why are you posting this as if you care

it's not a million so

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LordoftheMorons
03/31/20 5:38:58 PM
#194:


https://twitter.com/politico/status/1245099442832912387

Terrible

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TheRock1525
03/31/20 5:40:29 PM
#195:


StealThisSheen posted...
wait why are you posting this as if you care

it's not a million so
Keep in mind these same assholes don't give a shit when someone kills themselves when they become burdened with too much medical debt, because we can't have universal health care.

They absolutely 100% don't care about this dude killing himself and just want it as an excuse to open up their favorite store or restaurant. It's hilariously and brilliantly selfish.

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red sox 777
03/31/20 5:44:00 PM
#196:


LordoftheMorons posted...
https://twitter.com/politico/status/1245099442832912387

Terrible

They probably can't afford Obamacare. It's just too expensive. Bring on Trumpcare, paid for by the government!

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MoogleKupo141
03/31/20 5:47:09 PM
#197:


SmartMuffin posted...

Impossible to say, because there is no globally consistent method of attributing deaths to COVID. And because many jurisdictions are just outright lying about it.


how do you know theyre lying if its impossible for you to say how many deaths there are
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Kinglicious
03/31/20 5:48:31 PM
#198:


https://nypost.com/2020/03/30/brooklyn-man-arrested-for-hoarding-masks-coughing-on-fbi-agents

80,000 masks.
As Trump said a few days ago, which was a repetition of what Cuomo said at the start of the month, yes. There is major theft going on here.

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Xeybozn
03/31/20 6:02:21 PM
#199:


LordoftheMorons posted...
https://twitter.com/politico/status/1245099442832912387

Terrible

The whole point of having health insurance enrollment periods at all is so people can't just wait until they know they'll need care to sign up. Even in an emergency like this, reopening it would end up encouraging people to go without coverage in the future.

(Obviously this situation is probably more proof that the US system is terrible in the first place, but that's not the issue here and this wouldn't help much anyway.)
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ChaosTonyV4
03/31/20 6:07:25 PM
#200:


LordoftheMorons posted...
https://twitter.com/politico/status/1245099442832912387

Terrible

Unless you support Medicare for All, this is what you support.

Private insurance sees their profits from not allowing people to sign up AFTER healthcare is a problem, so this is inevitable in a system like that.

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LordoftheMorons
03/31/20 6:26:04 PM
#201:


Xeybozn posted...
The whole point of having health insurance enrollment periods at all is so people can't just wait until they know they'll need care to sign up. Even in an emergency like this, reopening it would end up encouraging people to go without coverage in the future.

(Obviously this situation is probably more proof that the US system is terrible in the first place, but that's not the issue here and this wouldn't help much anyway.)
Point taken about the incentives. It seems all but certain that the insurance companies are gonna have to be bailed out though, at which point you might as well just throw everyone in there.

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