Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1329

(+) Yeah! (+)

Advokaiser posted...

MZero is Japanese, right?

No, MZero is from Arizona.

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also I'm already looking forward to round 2 so we can start getting preliminary X-Stats

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ctesjbuvf posted...

I agree that this site isn't the place where LiS would fare best, but it's my experience that people that like it really like it, in other words a really vocal fanbase that generally has little tolerance for any negativity towards the game. It's definitely not as big as some people make it out to be.

That explains the 9 seed for this fodderous game.

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I mean I imagine a lot of the 8 and 9 seeds will finish near the bottom of the X-Stats because they have enough of a fanbase here to get a decent seed but nobody else cares about it

Fate/Grand Order sleeper pick for dead last in the X-Stats

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LeonhartFour posted...

No, MZero is from Arizona.

Hmm I'm sure there was at least one Japanese B8er in here.

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I mean, MZero lives in Japan now.

As far as a B8er who was born and raised in Japan? Not that I can recall. We do have several Asian B8ers, but I don't think any of them are Japanese, but I could be mistaken.

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the bracket glitch from earlier is fixed by the way

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Voltch is Japanese IIRC but lives (born??) in the UK I think. No idea if he's still here, I forget who's active and who's not almost instantly.

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I thought voltch was Vietnamese, but he's also lived in France before living in the UK.

I did see him the other day but he doesn't come by often anymore.

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I made a list of every contest game's Metacritic score (except for Fate/Grand Order which doesn't have one). Looking at this, you can see how the bracket was likely heavily selected/seeded using these numbers. I took the highest score out of all the platforms a game was released on, and didn't include later ports, remasters, goty editions, and so on. Only ports from the same year were counted.

Only 4 games had a score in the 70s: Destiny, Dragon's Dogma, Dying Light, and Street Fighter. Three of those have a decent number of hardcore fans, so I could see them getting plenty of nominations (I dunno how to explain Dying Light, though). I'll also note that Fortnite's score is weird since it only has a few reviews, and some are from the single player version.

89 (1) Dark Souls
97 (1) Grand Theft Auto V
96 (1) Mass Effect 2
93 (1) Persona 5
93 (1) Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
96 (1) The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
97 (1) The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
93 (1) The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt
92 (2) Bloodborne
86 (2) Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age
89 (2) Fire Emblem: Three Houses
94 (2) God of War
88 (2) NieR: Automata
97 (2) Red Dead Redemption 2
97 (2) Super Mario Odyssey
95 (2) The Last of Us
96 (3) Batman: Arkham City
84 (3) Fallout: New Vegas
90 (3) Monster Hunter: World
87 (3) Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver Version
95 (3) Portal 2
93 (3) Resident Evil 2
92 (3) Undertale
92 (3) Xenoblade Chronicles
87 (4) Hollow Knight
89 (4) Horizon Zero Dawn
95 (4) Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain
93 (4) Minecraft
95 (4) Red Dead Redemption
97 (4) Super Mario Galaxy 2
90 (4) Super Meat Boy
93 (4) Uncharted 4: A Thief's End
91 (5) Borderlands 2
83 (5) Final Fantasy XIV Online: A Realm Reborn
83 (5) Final Fantasy XV
87 (5) Marvel's Spider-Man
93 (5) Persona 4 Golden
86 (5) Sonic Mania
89 (5) Stardew Valley
85 (5) Yakuza 0
94 (6) BioShock Infinite
94 (6) Celeste
89 (6) Dark Souls III
87 (6) DOOM
83 (6) Kingdom Hearts III
91 (6) Overwatch
91 (6) Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice
90 (6) Shovel Knight
88 (7) Animal Crossing: New Leaf
89 (7) Devil May Cry 5
88 (7) Diablo III
93 (7) Divinity: Original Sin II
89 (7) Dragon Age: Inquisition
92 (7) Fire Emblem: Awakening
88 (7) The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth
94 (7) The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series
88 (8) Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag
88 (8) Cuphead
88 (8) Fallout 4
n/a (8) Fate / Grand Order
91 (8) Halo: Reach
93 (8) Mass Effect 3
86 (8) Rocket League
91 (8) The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds
90 (9) Bayonetta
87 (9) Dragon Ball FighterZ
92 (9) Journey
85 (9) Life is Strange
90 (9) Sid Meier's Civilization V
93 (9) Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty
81 (9) VVVVVV
88 (9) XCOM 2
86 (10) Bastion
90 (10) Deus Ex: Human Revolution
83 (10) Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze
93 (10) Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft
88 (10) Nioh
88 (10) Ori and the Blind Forest
77 (10) Street Fighter V
88 (10) Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward
82 (11) Death Stranding
90 (11) Disco Elysium
91 (11) Dishonored
78 (11) Dragon's Dogma
93 (11) INSIDE
85 (11) Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch
92 (11) Rayman Legends
83 (11) Terraria
84 (12) Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night
87 (12) Crypt of the NecroDancer
90 (12) Dead Space 2
76 (12) Destiny
84 (12) FTL: Faster Than Light
87 (12) The Witness
92 (12) What Remains of Edith Finch
85 (12) Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA
91 (13) Dead Cells
90 (13) Dota 2
85 (13) Fortnite
83 (13) Ghost Trick: Phantom Detective
88 (13) Mario Kart 8
89 (13) Return of the Obra Dinn
89 (13) Slay the Spire
80 (13) Tales of Berseria
85 (14) Bravely Default: Flying Fairy
81 (14) Danganronpa 2: Goodbye Despair
88 (14) Night in the Woods
83 (14) Octopath Traveler
83 (14) Splatoon 2
88 (14) The Stanley Parable
87 (14) Tomb Raider
83 (14) Xenoblade Chronicles 2
91 (15) Bayonetta 2
88 (15) Call of Duty: Black Ops
82 (15) Crusader Kings II
75 (15) Dying Light
86 (15) Mortal Kombat 11
85 (15) South Park: The Stick of Truth
80 (15) The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky SC
85 (15) The Talos Principle
87 (16) Assassin's Creed Odyssey
87 (16) Baba Is You
87 (16) Heavy Rain
85 (16) Hotline Miami
86 (16) Resident Evil 7: biohazard
87 (16) Subnautica
82 (16) Tekken 7
85 (16) The Outer Worlds


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Average Metacritic score by seed

1 94.3
2 92.3
3 91.1
4 92.4
5 87.1
6 89.9
7 90.1
8 89.3
9 88.3
10 86.6
11 86.8
12 85.6
13 86.9
14 84.8
15 84.0
16 85.8

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I recall Dragons Dogma being a game SBAllen specifically told us was in the top 100 most nominated in 2015 but didnt make the bracket, so yeah, its nomination support is probably pretty good this time too.

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For the last games contest, SBAllen made sure no joke entries (games with low scores) were allowed in. I imagine the same principle was applied here as well.

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Denying us the epic Breath of the Wild vs Ride to Hell final we all deserve

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The biggest problem with the metacritic consideration is Deadly Premonition. I have no doubt it has more than enough nominations to make it in.

Oh yeah there's a contest

Glad Hollow Knight is kicking ass. Also glad BotW is beasting but that's not really surprising.

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UshiromiyaEva posted...

The biggest problem with the metacritic consideration is Deadly Premonition. I have no doubt it has more than enough nominations to make it in.

It's rated 6.8/10 on Meta Critic, despite the user scores I don't think it was able to get out of that hole.

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Hm, is the Metacritic why Dual Destinies and Spirit of Justice failed to get in? :(

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PrinceOfKoopas posted...

Hm, is the Metacritic why Dual Destinies and Spirit of Justice failed to get in? :(

Nah they both have 81. Really I think people just split the support.

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Yeah, I imagined they just LFF'd each other out.

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Same with the Pokemon games.

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With just 1 hour left in the first day of matches, we currently have 14376 raw votes in the BotW match and 14258 raw votes in the Halo: Reach match. Looks like my initial prediction of 14500 raw votes for the first day of matches (based on the first hour of voting) will be fairly accurate it seems.
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After Hk vs Berseria we don't have a hotly debated match for a while right? If I'm looking at the bracket right not until DMCV V Donkey Kong?

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We don't, but I'd be more surprised if there wasn't a random upset along the way than if there was - there's so much we don't know and our hypothesising is just that.

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UltimaterializerX posted...

I think Octopath has a chance to upset Undertale that day, too.

Mmm after today I would think taking a bottom rung RPG to beat a highly acclaimed indie game is a pretty tough proposition. Octopath was considered disappointing by a LOT of people on this site and was very quickly forgotten.

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Octopath would beat Berseria. Its not bottom rung. But yeah Undertale will win easily.

There has been some debate over TWD vs. Bastion but likely not. Its more coming up with ways TWD could choke.

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If you believe really, really, really hard in Undertale anti-voting Octopath has a shot, but at that point you're going 'Well, I'd take ANYTHING over Undertale'.

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scaryice posted...

Looking at this, you can see how the bracket was likely heavily selected/seeded using these numbers.

Am I supposed to be seeing something I'm not here? Street Fighter V has an awful Metascore and an awful GameFAQs user score, so it would likely have to be top 30 or so in nominations to make a 10-seed with those taken into account. Likewise, F/GO has no Metascore at all, so it would again probably have to be top 30 or so in nominations to make an 8-seed if Metascores were used for seeding. Those are just two examples that typify the trend.

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SFV is weird in that its reputation has improved a lot. The most recent version has an 87 on Metacritic. I dont think that redeems the first two years.

FFXIV on the other hand, went 83 (ARR)>86 (PS4 version+Heavensward)>89 (Stormblood)>91 (Shadowbringers), it shouldnt be judged by that ARR score I think.

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How high can Breath of the Wild go?

85% is about as high as it gets nowadays. It's proved its claim as the favorite to win.

How much will Halo, a triple-A shooter, get antivoted?

Unless Life is Strange is a secret powerhouse, the answer is "a lot." It was the conventional wisdom already, but it bears repeating: triple-As aren't safe.

Will Hollow Knight, an indie game in a debated match, rise to the challenge or flop?

Rise it does! Rather than Tales sucking, I see this as setting the standard for indies this contest. They can, and will, put on midcarder worthy showings, even in the face of legit competition.

Questions to answer for today:
Will Sekiro put on a good showing for the soulslike genre? If it does well, is Monster Hunter in trouble next round?
Can Dragon Quest justify its 2 seed?

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

If you believe really, really, really hard in Undertale anti-voting Octopath has a shot, but at that point you're going 'Well, I'd take ANYTHING over Undertale'.

And I'm banking on that. Octopath to round 3.

Monster Hunter: World vs. Bravely Default is a debated match as well.

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match pics?

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Advokaiser posted...

Monster Hunter: World vs. Bravely Default is a debated match as well.

Really? Shouldn't MH win that handily?

SwiftyDC posted...

match pics?

https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-back/465583.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-back/193502.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-back/483352.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-back/78460.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-back/160198.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-back/82880.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-back/448607.png
https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-back/29447.png

For logos, replace the "back" part of each of those urls with "logo" (without the quotes).

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The Walking Dead VS Life is Strange?
Hale: Reach VS Bastion?

There's room for a close match in a few minutes with Bastion VS TWD.

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gl all! day 2 lesss go

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Walking Dead

Halo

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All I ask for is one match that isn't over within 10 minutes.

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GL GL GL GL go ni no kuni!

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WarThaNemesis2 posted...

All I ask for is one match that isn't over within 10 minutes.

well you might have one that'll last at least 5 minutes!

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LadyVyxx posted...

Really? Shouldn't MH win that handily?

I mean, it should, but BD is stronger than people give it credit for.

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Monster Hunter not starting off so hot!

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spoilers Monster Hunter was never going to be strong so I hope no one has it going deep

Bravely Default is more this site's type of game but it'll probably still lose

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The Monster Hunter > Sekiro crowd better hope BD won the board vote

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