Board 8 > In-Depth Contest Analysis (2020 Version)

Topic List	Page List: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
Leonhart4 03/09/20 10:11:33 PM #203:	Mac Arrowny posted... Where did it hold up well against BotW? I think this is the only poll they shared. https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6730-five-months-in-to-2017-whats-your-pick-for-game-of-the-year Well, Persona 5 actually managed to get closer to BotW in the actual GOTY poll, so I wouldn't take that entirely at face value. --- https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB <cite>Leonhart4 posted [p:935462202] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>Mac Arrowny posted... </cite> <quote>Where did it hold up well against BotW? I think this is the only poll they shared. https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6730-five-months-in-to-2017-whats-your-pick-for-game-of-the-year</quote> Well, Persona 5 actually managed to get closer to BotW in the actual GOTY poll, so I wouldn't take that entirely at face value. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KamikazePotato 03/09/20 10:12:06 PM #204:	Division 6, Round 3, Match 1 Persona 5 Super Meat Boy https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6953-best-of-2017-game-of-the-year https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4214-best-of-2010-best-indie-game Yeah. Expected Result Persona 5 > Super Meat Boy 70 - 30 -- Division 6, Round 3, Match 2 Portal 2 Red Dead Redemption 2 https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6069-best-game-ever-day-5-portal-2-vs-sonic-the-hedgehog-2 https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7471-best-of-2018-game-of-the-year Now this is a match that requires a bit more analysis. First blood goes to Portal 2 thanks to this poll: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7514-whats-your-all-time-favorite-2-game These kinds of polls can easily produce wonky results, but it's never a GOOD thing when you're in the same poll as your opponent and place lower. At the very least, it probably implies that Portal 2 has a more dedicated fanbase. Now let's look at stats: Portal 2 (2015g) VS Red Dead Redemption (2015g) Portal 2 has a strength of 23.30. Red Dead Redemption has a strength of 24.60. Red Dead Redemption wins with 52.64% of the vote! Point to Red Dead Redemption 2. While it's not guaranteed that RDR2 will be as strong as it's predecessor - I'm honestly not sure if it'll be weaker or stronger - that already gives it a strength buffer to work with. This match is still up in the air, so let's dig deeper. https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7462-best-of-2018-playstation-4 That ranking feels...I don't know, a little unimpressive? GotY polls for specific consoles can get VERY wonky (see Undertale beating Witcher 3 in the PC poll and then getting wrecked in the general poll) but it's still iffy to see RDR2 getting edged out by Spider-Man and DQ11 before its Switch port. At the very least, it doesn't give me hope that RDR2 will be stronger than 1, which lines up with the general impressions I've gotten from fans who played both games. This match in my mind is a coinflip, as you can make valid arguments for each game and there's no one big thing pointing to either game having a clear-cut advantage. I'm going to go with RDR2 because it's more recent - people have had more time to forget about Portal 2, while RDR2 is still (relatively) fresh. I'm not comfortable with that choice though, so feel free to go with your gut on this one. Expected Result RDR2 > Portal 2 51 - 49 --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. <cite>KamikazePotato posted [p:935462232] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>Division 6, Round 3, Match 1 Persona 5 Super Meat Boy https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6953-best-of-2017-game-of-the-year https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4214-best-of-2010-best-indie-game Yeah. Expected Result Persona 5 > Super Meat Boy 70 - 30 -- Division 6, Round 3, Match 2 Portal 2 Red Dead Redemption 2 https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6069-best-game-ever-day-5-portal-2-vs-sonic-the-hedgehog-2 https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7471-best-of-2018-game-of-the-year Now this is a match that requires a bit more analysis. First blood goes to Portal 2 thanks to this poll: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7514-whats-your-all-time-favorite-2-game These kinds of polls can easily produce wonky results, but it's never a GOOD thing when you're in the same poll as your opponent and place lower. At the very least, it probably implies that Portal 2 has a more dedicated fanbase. Now let's look at stats: Portal 2 (2015g) VS Red Dead Redemption (2015g) Portal 2 has a strength of 23.30. Red Dead Redemption has a strength of 24.60. Red Dead Redemption wins with 52.64% of the vote! Point to Red Dead Redemption 2. While it's not guaranteed that RDR2 will be as strong as it's predecessor - I'm honestly not sure if it'll be weaker or stronger - that already gives it a strength buffer to work with. This match is still up in the air, so let's dig deeper. https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7462-best-of-2018-playstation-4 That ranking feels...I don't know, a little unimpressive? GotY polls for specific consoles can get VERY wonky (see Undertale beating Witcher 3 in the PC poll and then getting wrecked in the general poll) but it's still iffy to see RDR2 getting edged out by Spider-Man and DQ11 before its Switch port. At the very least, it doesn't give me hope that RDR2 will be stronger than 1, which lines up with the general impressions I've gotten from fans who played both games. This match in my mind is a coinflip, as you can make valid arguments for each game and there's no one big thing pointing to either game having a clear-cut advantage. I'm going to go with RDR2 because it's more recent - people have had more time to forget about Portal 2, while RDR2 is still (relatively) fresh. I'm not comfortable with that choice though, so feel free to go with your gut on this one. Expected Result RDR2 > Portal 2 51 - 49 </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KamikazePotato 03/09/20 10:21:51 PM #205:	Division 7, Round 3, Match 1 Dark Souls Metal Gear Solid V https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6136-best-game-ever-day-22-round-2-metal-gear-solid-v-vs-dark Every contest has a rematch we don't need, and you're looking at a prime example here. Since 2015, Souls games have only gone up in popularity and importance. The Metal Gear series is dead and Snake didn't do very well in the last character battle. So...yeeeeeeeah. The only relevant thing about this match is that it can be used as an easy barometer for Dark Souls' strength. If it can't outperform its 2015 result (and easily at that) then it's going to run into problems next round. Expected Result Dark Souls > MGSV 58 - 42 -- Division 7, Round 3, Match 2 Batman: Arkham City The Last of Us The Last of Us (2015g) VS Batman: Arkham City (2015g) The Last of Us has a strength of 27.36. Batman: Arkham City has a strength of 25.17. The Last of Us wins with 54.00% of the vote! There is absolutely no reason for this match to go differently. If anything, TLOU does a bit better than the projections because it's still extremely highly-regarded and has a sequel coming out soon while the Arkham Era has ended. The stats might show Arkham City within striking distance but there is zero reason for TLOU to lose this one outside of a massive, unexpected bomb. Expected Result Last of Us > Arkham City 56 - 44 --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. <cite>KamikazePotato posted [p:935462599] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>Division 7, Round 3, Match 1 Dark Souls Metal Gear Solid V https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6136-best-game-ever-day-22-round-2-metal-gear-solid-v-vs-dark Every contest has a rematch we don't need, and you're looking at a prime example here. Since 2015, Souls games have only gone up in popularity and importance. The Metal Gear series is dead and Snake didn't do very well in the last character battle. So...yeeeeeeeah. The only relevant thing about this match is that it can be used as an easy barometer for Dark Souls' strength. If it can't outperform its 2015 result (and easily at that) then it's going to run into problems next round. Expected Result Dark Souls > MGSV 58 - 42 -- Division 7, Round 3, Match 2 Batman: Arkham City The Last of Us The Last of Us (2015g) VS Batman: Arkham City (2015g) The Last of Us has a strength of 27.36. Batman: Arkham City has a strength of 25.17. The Last of Us wins with 54.00% of the vote! There is absolutely no reason for this match to go differently. If anything, TLOU does a bit better than the projections because it's still extremely highly-regarded and has a sequel coming out soon while the Arkham Era has ended. The stats might show Arkham City within striking distance but there is zero reason for TLOU to lose this one outside of a massive, unexpected bomb. Expected Result Last of Us > Arkham City 56 - 44 </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KamikazePotato 03/09/20 10:43:42 PM #206:	Division 8, Round 3, Match 1 Elder Scrolls: Skyrim Mario Kart 8 Skyrim (2015g) VS Mario Kart 8 (2015g) Skyrim has a strength of 34.93. Mario Kart 8 has a strength of 16.75. Skyrim wins with 76.02% of the vote! Mario Kart 8 got a highly successful Switch release since then, which means it gets dumpstered to a slightly less degree. Congrats. Expected Results Skyrim > MK8 72 - 28 -- Division 8, Round 3, Match 2 Pokemon HeartGold NieR: Automata https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4204-best-of-2010-best-ds-game https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4217-best-of-2010-game-of-the-year https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6730-five-months-in-to-2017-whats-your-pick-for-game-of-the-year https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6945-best-of-2017-playstation-4 Hoo boy. This match is important because it's going to help answer an important question: how much of a GSC proxy are voters considering HGSS to be? Because let's be clear - Pokemon GSC eats Nier alive. It placed in the Top 20 stats of the last Games Contest, which included all generations of games. Conversely, Nier played a clear third fiddle to Horizon Zero Dawn and Persona 5 in GotY polls. Let's be nice to Nier and say that, at the time of GotY 2017, it was equal to Persona 4 in strength (it was probably weaker). Pokemon G/S/C (2015g) VS Persona 4 (2015g) Pokemon G/S/C has a strength of 33.68. Persona 4 has a strength of 25.16. Pokemon G/S/C wins with 62.65% of the vote! You see how large this gap is? Gen 1&2 of Pokemon don't fuck around. With that said, I don't think the end result of this match is going to be nearly that bad, for several reasons. Nier is a game that has grown significantly in both sales and regard over time - it sold like 2 million in its first year and 2 million more since then, which are great sales legs for a single-player game without consistent updates and DLC. Speaking of great legs, 2B is one of the breakout characters of the generation and is known by everyone by virtue of fan art and cosplay alone. I wouldn't take Nier over Persona 5, but if the GotY poll was re-run I think it outdoes Horizon Zero Dawn with room to spare. Then you get to Pokemon GSC, which is not GSC. It's HeartGold/SoulSilver. The remake that came out 15~ years after the original. HGSS is a beloved game that is a huge favorite among the hardcore Pokemon fanbase...but here's the thing. The hardcore Pokemon fanbase does not matter on GameFAQs. At all. Every bit of Pokemon-related media that's strong here is based on nostalgia. We played a lot of RBY, a good amount of GSC, and then we stopped giving a fuck. HGSS might be the better game than GSC but it's simply not as nostalgic, and that matters a lot on a site where the youngest person is like 57 years old. And out of every game in the bracket, HGSS is going to stand out the most as not belonging. People were barely okay with Majora's Mask in Game of the Decade 1 and it was actually released during that decade. Pokemon GSC came out 19 years ago, and more than one voter is going to raise an eyebrows at its remake being in this contest. It won't be universally rejected, because its GameFAQs, but it's going to hurt HGSS' potential a little. That was a lot of words to say 'Nier doesn't get blown out as badly as preliminary stats imply'. HGSS still wins this one, but Nier will look respectable...and more importantly, HGSS will show that it doesn't have what it takes to overcome Skyrim. Expected Result HGSS > Nier Automata 55 - 45 --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. <cite>KamikazePotato posted [p:935463463] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>Division 8, Round 3, Match 1 Elder Scrolls: Skyrim Mario Kart 8 Skyrim (2015g) VS Mario Kart 8 (2015g) Skyrim has a strength of 34.93. Mario Kart 8 has a strength of 16.75. Skyrim wins with 76.02% of the vote! Mario Kart 8 got a highly successful Switch release since then, which means it gets dumpstered to a slightly less degree. Congrats. Expected Results Skyrim > MK8 72 - 28 -- Division 8, Round 3, Match 2 Pokemon HeartGold NieR: Automata https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4204-best-of-2010-best-ds-game https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4217-best-of-2010-game-of-the-year https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6730-five-months-in-to-2017-whats-your-pick-for-game-of-the-year https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6945-best-of-2017-playstation-4 Hoo boy. This match is important because it's going to help answer an important question: how much of a GSC proxy are voters considering HGSS to be? Because let's be clear - Pokemon GSC eats Nier alive. It placed in the Top 20 stats of the last Games Contest, which included all generations of games. Conversely, Nier played a clear third fiddle to Horizon Zero Dawn and Persona 5 in GotY polls. Let's be nice to Nier and say that, at the time of GotY 2017, it was equal to Persona 4 in strength (it was probably weaker). Pokemon G/S/C (2015g) VS Persona 4 (2015g) Pokemon G/S/C has a strength of 33.68. Persona 4 has a strength of 25.16. Pokemon G/S/C wins with 62.65% of the vote! You see how large this gap is? Gen 1&2 of Pokemon don't fuck around. With that said, I don't think the end result of this match is going to be nearly that bad, for several reasons. Nier is a game that has grown significantly in both sales and regard over time - it sold like 2 million in its first year and 2 million more since then, which are great sales legs for a single-player game without consistent updates and DLC. Speaking of great legs, 2B is one of the breakout characters of the generation and is known by everyone by virtue of fan art and cosplay alone. I wouldn't take Nier over Persona 5, but if the GotY poll was re-run I think it outdoes Horizon Zero Dawn with room to spare. Then you get to Pokemon GSC, which is not GSC. It's HeartGold/SoulSilver. The remake that came out 15~ years after the original. HGSS is a beloved game that is a huge favorite among the hardcore Pokemon fanbase...but here's the thing. The hardcore Pokemon fanbase does not matter on GameFAQs. At all. Every bit of Pokemon-related media that's strong here is based on nostalgia. We played a lot of RBY, a good amount of GSC, and then we stopped giving a fuck. HGSS might be the better game than GSC but it's simply not as nostalgic, and that matters a lot on a site where the youngest person is like 57 years old. And out of every game in the bracket, HGSS is going to stand out the most as not belonging. People were barely okay with Majora's Mask in Game of the Decade 1 and it was actually released during that decade. Pokemon GSC came out 19 years ago, and more than one voter is going to raise an eyebrows at its remake being in this contest. It won't be universally rejected, because its GameFAQs, but it's going to hurt HGSS' potential a little. That was a lot of words to say 'Nier doesn't get blown out as badly as preliminary stats imply'. HGSS still wins this one, but Nier will look respectable...and more importantly, HGSS will show that it doesn't have what it takes to overcome Skyrim. Expected Result HGSS > Nier Automata 55 - 45 </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Team Rocket Elite 03/09/20 10:50:16 PM #207:	How well do you think Nier Automata compares against a modern Pokemon game? Like would you pick it over Pokemon DP or Pokemon XY? --- Link isn't the only one who kicks ass. Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Contest! <cite>Team Rocket Elite posted [p:935463725] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>How well do you think Nier Automata compares against a modern Pokemon game? Like would you pick it over Pokemon DP or Pokemon XY?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KamikazePotato 03/09/20 10:54:10 PM #208:	https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6062-best-game-ever-day-3-zelda-the-wind-waker-vs-pokemon-x-y I would certainly hope that Nier would do better than this. Diamond is a tougher call. I also think lumping Diamond in with XY is unfair to Diamond - essentially, every Pokemon generation is going to be weaker than the one before it. https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6234-what-is-your-all-time-favorite-pokemon-generation With the exception of Gen 5, apparently. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. <cite>KamikazePotato posted [p:935463903] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6062-best-game-ever-day-3-zelda-the-wind-waker-vs-pokemon-x-y I would certainly hope that Nier would do better than this. Diamond is a tougher call. I also think lumping Diamond in with XY is unfair to Diamond - essentially, every Pokemon generation is going to be weaker than the one before it. https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6234-what-is-your-all-time-favorite-pokemon-generation With the exception of Gen 5, apparently. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Team Rocket Elite 03/09/20 10:58:54 PM #209:	I was thinking more Diamond/Pearl for the comparison since that's the gen HGSS is from. I'm not sure HGSS is stronger than DP but that might be enough to win anyways. https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5374-best-of-2013-3ds https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6062-best-game-ever-day-3-zelda-the-wind-waker-vs-pokemon-x-y What even happened to XY between those two polls? --- Link isn't the only one who kicks ass. Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Contest! <cite>Team Rocket Elite posted [p:935464115] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>I was thinking more Diamond/Pearl for the comparison since that's the gen HGSS is from. I'm not sure HGSS is stronger than DP but that might be enough to win anyways. https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5374-best-of-2013-3ds https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6062-best-game-ever-day-3-zelda-the-wind-waker-vs-pokemon-x-y What even happened to XY between those two polls?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KamikazePotato 03/09/20 11:00:34 PM #210:	People realized they didn't have to like it? I remember X/Y having a lot of release hype, which often translates to inflated GotY poll success. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. <cite>KamikazePotato posted [p:935464189] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>People realized they didn't have to like it? I remember X/Y having a lot of release hype, which often translates to inflated GotY poll success. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Big Bob 03/09/20 11:07:30 PM #211:	I've got a lot of faith in Nier this contest, though part of that is the weakness of its opponents. I think Pokemon's on a downtrend, and having a remake represent the series is going to make people hesitant to vote for it. In addition, it's cool to hate on Bethesda right now, so Skyrim won't be as strong as in the past. Automata got a fantastic reception and great word of mouth, so I took it to win the division. --- Come watch me on Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/gameryogi <cite>Big Bob posted [p:935464484] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>I've got a lot of faith in Nier this contest, though part of that is the weakness of its opponents. I think Pokemon's on a downtrend, and having a remake represent the series is going to make people hesitant to vote for it. In addition, it's cool to hate on Bethesda right now, so Skyrim won't be as strong as in the past. Automata got a fantastic reception and great word of mouth, so I took it to win the division. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
OrangeCrush980 03/09/20 11:28:28 PM #212:	The weird part about newer Pokemon games being so weak is that it's not like they're unpopular. The Pokemon boards here get a ton of traffic. Though I suppose the biggest thing newer Pokemon games lack is a singular very strong game to rally behind (besides HG/SS which is a remake). Every game seems to find a way to rub a lot of people the wrong way. I love R/S/E and Gen 5 but a lot of people can't stand them. Sadly Gamefreak gave up on making good Pokemon games a few generations ago, so it's doubtful that we'll ever get such a game. --- Courage is the magic that turns dreams into reality <cite>OrangeCrush980 posted [p:935465275] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>The weird part about newer Pokemon games being so weak is that it's not like they're unpopular. The Pokemon boards here get a ton of traffic. Though I suppose the biggest thing newer Pokemon games lack is a singular very strong game to rally behind (besides HG/SS which is a remake). Every game seems to find a way to rub a lot of people the wrong way. I love R/S/E and Gen 5 but a lot of people can't stand them. Sadly Gamefreak gave up on making good Pokemon games a few generations ago, so it's doubtful that we'll ever get such a game. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
ZeldaTPLink 03/10/20 5:57:23 AM #213:	KamikazePotato posted... The remake that came out 15~ years after the original. 10. GSC is from 2000, the remake is from 2010. It barely makes this bracket either, since the Japan release is 2009. <cite>ZeldaTPLink posted [p:935472986] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>KamikazePotato posted... </cite> <quote>The remake that came out 15~ years after the original.</quote> 10. GSC is from 2000, the remake is from 2010. It barely makes this bracket either, since the Japan release is 2009. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
ZeldaTPLink 03/10/20 5:59:53 AM #214:	OrangeCrush980 posted... The weird part about newer Pokemon games being so weak is that it's not like they're unpopular. The Pokemon boards here get a ton of traffic. I mean they do, but have you seen how toxic that traffic is? Just try to go there and say you like the newest game, I dare you. <cite>ZeldaTPLink posted [p:935473014] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>OrangeCrush980 posted... </cite> <quote>The weird part about newer Pokemon games being so weak is that it's not like they're unpopular. The Pokemon boards here get a ton of traffic.</quote> I mean they do, but have you seen how toxic that traffic is? Just try to go there and say you like the newest game, I dare you. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Advokaiser 03/11/20 7:09:43 PM #215:	https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/259372-pokemon-sword/77536263 Anyone familiar with the Pokmon fanbase may already be aware that HG/SS is the holy grail of the ~~hardcore~~ Pokmon fanbase. I don't believe HG/SS voters will be G/S/C proxies, but I haven't met a single person, anywhere, anytime, that hasn't liked or utterly loved HG/SS. The real question is: How strong can the strongest hardcore fan-favorite Pokmon game truly be? HG/SS being the only Pokmon game(s) in the bracket from this decade, despite already having 4 more generations added since then, is going to be the single, most important reading we'll have regarding a well-received Pokmon game after Gens 1 and 2. --- It's an honor being part of Board 8's community. <cite>Advokaiser posted [p:935547815] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/259372-pokemon-sword/77536263 Anyone familiar with the Pokmon fanbase may already be aware that HG/SS is the holy grail of the hardcore Pokmon fanbase. I don't believe HG/SS voters will be G/S/C proxies, but I haven't met a single person, anywhere, anytime, that hasn't liked or utterly loved HG/SS. The real question is: How strong can the strongest hardcore fan-favorite Pokmon game truly be? HG/SS being the only Pokmon game(s) in the bracket from this decade, despite already having 4 more generations added since then, is going to be the single, most important reading we'll have regarding a well-received Pokmon game after Gens 1 and 2. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KamikazePotato 03/11/20 7:53:28 PM #216:	Division 1 Finals Zelda: Breath of the Wild Dragon Quest XI I wonder if I can get away with not giving BotW a proper writeup this entire topic. Would anyone blame me? Expected Result BotW > DQ11 68 - 32 -- Division 2 Finals Mass Effect 2 Resident Evil 2 / Bloodborne / Fire Emblem Awakening https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7514-whats-your-all-time-favorite-2-game https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4218-best-of-2010-game-of-the-year-final https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6162-best-game-ever-day-32-round-3-metal-gear-solid-3-vs-mass https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6146-best-game-ever-day-24-round-2-starcraft-vs-mass-effect-2 https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7838-best-of-2019-game-of-the-year https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7840-best-of-2019-game-of-the-year-final-vote So here's the thing. Mass Effect 2 (2015g) VS Fire Emblem: Awakening (2015g) Mass Effect 2 has a strength of 25.58. Fire Emblem: Awakening has a strength of 22.89. Mass Effect 2 wins with 55.26% of the vote! Mass Effect 2 (2015g) VS Bloodborne (2015g) Mass Effect 2 has a strength of 25.58. Bloodborne has a strength of 21.24. Mass Effect 2 wins with 58.48% of the vote! Even with ME2's probably-underrated 2015 Xstat value, it still beat Bloodborne and Awakening easily. Neither of those games are going to increase THAT much. If you took either of them to get this far, don't take them here. Resident Evil 2 is a different story. Mass Effect 2 (2015g) VS Resident Evil 2 (2015g) Mass Effect 2 has a strength of 25.58. Resident Evil 2 has a strength of 23.93. Mass Effect 2 wins with 53.23% of the vote! It's very likely that RE2 2019 is stronger than the original. 2019 beat Fire Emblem Three Houses worse than RE2 Original is projected to beat Awakening. If you roll with that logic, and think that ME2's 2015 value isn't underrated, then it puts RE2 within striking range. It's not the worst upset pick in the bracket to roll with. I'm going to have to take ME2 in the end, though, mostly due to the 'All-Time Favorite 2 Game' poll. Those are never perfect, but while RE2 held up well it still lost cleanly to ME2. Aside from that, ME2 is the higher seed and was a bigger deal when it came out; conventional wisdom is absolutely in its favor. It just feels right, and you have to stretch the numbers a bit too much to make the RE2 upset a likely outcome. I wouldn't be entirely surprised if it happened, but I'm not rolling the dice on it. Expected Result ME2 > Resident Evil 2 53 - 47 --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. <cite>KamikazePotato posted [p:935549758] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>Division 1 Finals Zelda: Breath of the Wild Dragon Quest XI I wonder if I can get away with not giving BotW a proper writeup this entire topic. Would anyone blame me? Expected Result BotW > DQ11 68 - 32 -- Division 2 Finals Mass Effect 2 Resident Evil 2 / Bloodborne / Fire Emblem Awakening https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7514-whats-your-all-time-favorite-2-game https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4218-best-of-2010-game-of-the-year-final https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6162-best-game-ever-day-32-round-3-metal-gear-solid-3-vs-mass https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6146-best-game-ever-day-24-round-2-starcraft-vs-mass-effect-2 https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7838-best-of-2019-game-of-the-year https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7840-best-of-2019-game-of-the-year-final-vote So here's the thing. Mass Effect 2 (2015g) VS Fire Emblem: Awakening (2015g) Mass Effect 2 has a strength of 25.58. Fire Emblem: Awakening has a strength of 22.89. Mass Effect 2 wins with 55.26% of the vote! Mass Effect 2 (2015g) VS Bloodborne (2015g) Mass Effect 2 has a strength of 25.58. Bloodborne has a strength of 21.24. Mass Effect 2 wins with 58.48% of the vote! Even with ME2's probably-underrated 2015 Xstat value, it still beat Bloodborne and Awakening easily. Neither of those games are going to increase THAT much. If you took either of them to get this far, don't take them here. Resident Evil 2 is a different story. Mass Effect 2 (2015g) VS Resident Evil 2 (2015g) Mass Effect 2 has a strength of 25.58. Resident Evil 2 has a strength of 23.93. Mass Effect 2 wins with 53.23% of the vote! It's very likely that RE2 2019 is stronger than the original. 2019 beat Fire Emblem Three Houses worse than RE2 Original is projected to beat Awakening. If you roll with that logic, and think that ME2's 2015 value isn't underrated, then it puts RE2 within striking range. It's not the worst upset pick in the bracket to roll with. I'm going to have to take ME2 in the end, though, mostly due to the 'All-Time Favorite 2 Game' poll. Those are never perfect, but while RE2 held up well it still lost cleanly to ME2. Aside from that, ME2 is the higher seed and was a bigger deal when it came out; conventional wisdom is absolutely in its favor. It just feels right, and you have to stretch the numbers a bit too much to make the RE2 upset a likely outcome. I wouldn't be entirely surprised if it happened, but I'm not rolling the dice on it. Expected Result ME2 > Resident Evil 2 53 - 47 </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Captain_Sorzo 03/11/20 8:08:02 PM #217:	Much as I love the game, I have little confidence in ME2 to win against serious competition these days. Shepard's painful underperformance in 2018 bodes ill for the series, and BioWare's reputation has only fallen further since then thanks to Anthem. On the other hand, it's at least a lock to be in the division finals. --- "In this world you will have trouble. But take heart! I have overcome the world." - John 16:33 <cite>Captain_Sorzo posted [p:935550395] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>Much as I love the game, I have little confidence in ME2 to win against serious competition these days. Shepard's painful underperformance in 2018 bodes ill for the series, and BioWare's reputation has only fallen further since then thanks to Anthem. On the other hand, it's at least a lock to be in the division finals. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KamikazePotato 03/11/20 8:31:11 PM #218:	Divison 3 Finals SSB Ultimate Super Mario Odyssey https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7471-best-of-2018-game-of-the-year https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7473-best-of-2018-game-of-the-year-final-final-vote https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7577-what-is-the-best-all-time-super-smash-bros-game https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6946-best-of-2017-switch https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7757-whats-your-all-time-favorite-3d-super-mario-game Smash Ultimate is the big favorite to take this match, and it probably should be. It's a huge deal right now, what with continuous DLC and EVERYONE IS HERE and all that. There was a poll held on B8 about which game in the bracket would be the 2nd-strongest and Smash Ultimate dominated. It's just...a bigger deal than Odyssey, right? Right? First, let's tackle the polls that most point to Smash Ultimate's victory: the 'favorite Smash game' poll where it beat Melee and the 'favorite 3D Mario' poll where Odyssey got wrecked by SM64. If you take those as direct X-stat values, it points to Smash Ultimate being this beast that's stronger than Melee while Odyssey will be way weaker than SM64, but I disagree with both those notions. 'Favorite X' polls for Nintendo stuff can get weird as all hell. For example: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7610-whats-your-all-time-favorite-legend-of-zelda-console-game https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6168-best-game-ever-day-35-division-vi-final-zelda-a-link-to-the https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6173-best-game-ever-day-38-quarterfinal-zelda-ocarina-of-time-vs Those results do not even remotely line up. How about this? https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7898-which-mario-character-is-your-all-time-favorite Yoshi always performs amazing in these and no one knows why. Or even just a stat comparison: Mario 64 (2015g) VS Mario Galaxy (2015g) Mario 64 has a strength of 41.96. Mario Galaxy has a strength of 30.71. Mario 64 wins with 63.41% of the vote! That's a much better result for Galaxy than the Favorite 3D Mario poll implies. So here's the thing: I think Odyssey is much better than its poll suggests, while Smash Ultimate is worse. I think it's very hard for a Smash fan NOT to vote for Ultimate in that poll simply because of the wording. It's not 'your favorite Smash game', it's 'the best Smash game', and...its name is literally Ultimate. Everyone Is Here, pinnacle of the series, ect. It's the hot thing right now. But indirectly? I would take Melee to be stronger, and I would be comfortable with that. Brawl was about equal to Melee and it was the most hyped game this site has ever had and had a much higher playrate. I would peg Ultimate to be somewhere between Melee and Smash 4 in strength...maybe closer to Melee, but pretty much in the middle of the two. And here's my biggest reason why: It honestly didn't do well in Game of the Year. Yeah, it won, but every Smash games wins GotY. That's what they do. Smash 4 wrecked its GotY poll and that game wasn't very strong. Smash Ultimate got 54% against God of War, and there's a limit to how strong God of War can be. It's very rare that a non-Nintendo, non-Square game ends up being a bid deal here, and while God of War was very well-received I don't think it's going to tangle with - for example - the Elder Scrolls or Fallouts here. I'd peg it more as a 2015 Witcher 3 or Last of Us, and well: Smash 4 (2015g) VS The Last of Us (2015g) Smash 4 has a strength of 30.96. The Last of Us has a strength of 27.36. Smash 4 wins with 55.81% of the vote! God of War could always be stronger than anticipated, and using GotY polls like they're actual contest polls is always questionable, but still. It's not a great look either way. So what about Odyssey? We don't have much to go on outside of Breath of the Wild blasting it, but...again, hierarchy. It held up as well as Persona 5 did against BotW, which is honestly impressive considering Nintendo SFF and the fact that Breath of the Wild completely dominated that year. There was zero chance ANYTHING else was winning GotY (or Game of the Decade, for that matter). I basically have to guesstimate about Odyssey, but personally I think it's a good bit stronger than Galaxy and is being undervalued. Odyssey, despite playing second fiddle to BotW, was well-received. Very, very well-received, and had extremely good sales to boot. Indirectly, I don't think it's THAT far off from BotW - in any other year, BotW would've been an easy contender for GotY. And hey, look at these 2015 X-stat values: Mario 64 - 41.96 SSB Melee - 38.28 Smash 4 - 30.96 Mario Galaxy - 30.71 Odyssey and Ultimate will fall between those two sets, and there's plenty of space for one to be weaker or stronger than the other. So...what do you pick? I keep going back to Ultimate's GotY poll and can't help but think that Odyssey would have done better there. You can say that Ultimate will be stronger now thanks to DLC, but that's a bit of a stretch. DLC doesn't change people's opinions on games outside of the hardcore fanbase who make up a minority of voters. Ultimate is probably the smart pick here, due to the 1 Seed and recency and blah blah, but I'm going with Odyssey. If only because I have to diversify my bracket somewhere. Expected Result Odyssey > Smash Ultimate 51 - 49 --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. <cite>KamikazePotato posted [p:935551411] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>Divison 3 Finals SSB Ultimate Super Mario Odyssey https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7471-best-of-2018-game-of-the-year https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7473-best-of-2018-game-of-the-year-final-final-vote https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7577-what-is-the-best-all-time-super-smash-bros-game https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6946-best-of-2017-switch https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7757-whats-your-all-time-favorite-3d-super-mario-game Smash Ultimate is the big favorite to take this match, and it probably should be. It's a huge deal right now, what with continuous DLC and EVERYONE IS HERE and all that. There was a poll held on B8 about which game in the bracket would be the 2nd-strongest and Smash Ultimate dominated. It's just...a bigger deal than Odyssey, right? Right? First, let's tackle the polls that most point to Smash Ultimate's victory: the 'favorite Smash game' poll where it beat Melee and the 'favorite 3D Mario' poll where Odyssey got wrecked by SM64. If you take those as direct X-stat values, it points to Smash Ultimate being this beast that's stronger than Melee while Odyssey will be way weaker than SM64, but I disagree with both those notions. 'Favorite X' polls for Nintendo stuff can get weird as all hell. For example: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7610-whats-your-all-time-favorite-legend-of-zelda-console-game https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6168-best-game-ever-day-35-division-vi-final-zelda-a-link-to-the https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6173-best-game-ever-day-38-quarterfinal-zelda-ocarina-of-time-vs Those results do not even remotely line up. How about this? https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7898-which-mario-character-is-your-all-time-favorite Yoshi always performs amazing in these and no one knows why. Or even just a stat comparison: Mario 64 (2015g) VS Mario Galaxy (2015g) Mario 64 has a strength of 41.96. Mario Galaxy has a strength of 30.71. Mario 64 wins with 63.41% of the vote! That's a much better result for Galaxy than the Favorite 3D Mario poll implies. So here's the thing: I think Odyssey is much better than its poll suggests, while Smash Ultimate is worse. I think it's very hard for a Smash fan NOT to vote for Ultimate in that poll simply because of the wording. It's not 'your favorite Smash game', it's 'the best Smash game', and...its name is literally Ultimate. Everyone Is Here, pinnacle of the series, ect. It's the hot thing right now. But indirectly? I would take Melee to be stronger, and I would be comfortable with that. Brawl was about equal to Melee and it was the most hyped game this site has ever had and had a much higher playrate. I would peg Ultimate to be somewhere between Melee and Smash 4 in strength...maybe closer to Melee, but pretty much in the middle of the two. And here's my biggest reason why: It honestly didn't do well in Game of the Year. Yeah, it won, but every Smash games wins GotY. That's what they do. Smash 4 wrecked its GotY poll and that game wasn't very strong. Smash Ultimate got 54% against God of War, and there's a limit to how strong God of War can be. It's very rare that a non-Nintendo, non-Square game ends up being a bid deal here, and while God of War was very well-received I don't think it's going to tangle with - for example - the Elder Scrolls or Fallouts here. I'd peg it more as a 2015 Witcher 3 or Last of Us, and well: Smash 4 (2015g) VS The Last of Us (2015g) Smash 4 has a strength of 30.96. The Last of Us has a strength of 27.36. Smash 4 wins with 55.81% of the vote! God of War could always be stronger than anticipated, and using GotY polls like they're actual contest polls is always questionable, but still. It's not a great look either way. So what about Odyssey? We don't have much to go on outside of Breath of the Wild blasting it, but...again, hierarchy. It held up as well as Persona 5 did against BotW, which is honestly impressive considering Nintendo SFF and the fact that Breath of the Wild completely dominated that year. There was zero chance ANYTHING else was winning GotY (or Game of the Decade, for that matter). I basically have to guesstimate about Odyssey, but personally I think it's a good bit stronger than Galaxy and is being undervalued. Odyssey, despite playing second fiddle to BotW, was well-received. Very, very well-received, and had extremely good sales to boot. Indirectly, I don't think it's THAT far off from BotW - in any other year, BotW would've been an easy contender for GotY. And hey, look at these 2015 X-stat values: Mario 64 - 41.96 SSB Melee - 38.28 Smash 4 - 30.96 Mario Galaxy - 30.71 Odyssey and Ultimate will fall between those two sets, and there's plenty of space for one to be weaker or stronger than the other. So...what do you pick? I keep going back to Ultimate's GotY poll and can't help but think that Odyssey would have done better there. You can say that Ultimate will be stronger now thanks to DLC, but that's a bit of a stretch. DLC doesn't change people's opinions on games outside of the hardcore fanbase who make up a minority of voters. Ultimate is probably the smart pick here, due to the 1 Seed and recency and blah blah, but I'm going with Odyssey. If only because I have to diversify my bracket somewhere. Expected Result Odyssey > Smash Ultimate 51 - 49 </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
linid0t 03/11/20 8:35:22 PM #219:	*Expected Result* *Odyssey > Smash Ultimate* *51 - 49* --- God is not preparing you for anything, you are just suffering <cite>linid0t posted [p:935551578] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>Expected Result Odyssey > Smash Ultimate 51 - 49 </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Team Rocket Elite 03/11/20 8:43:18 PM #220:	That's a gutsy pick. I'm not entirely sure Odyssey is stronger than SMG. It feels like it should be except SMG came out a lot closer to 1998 and that's a tough advantage to beat. However, SSBU vs GoW was a shockingly unimpressive result by SSBU. So I can see SSBU dropping the ball. --- Link isn't the only one who kicks ass. Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Contest! <cite>Team Rocket Elite posted [p:935551927] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>That's a gutsy pick. I'm not entirely sure Odyssey is stronger than SMG. It feels like it should be except SMG came out a lot closer to 1998 and that's a tough advantage to beat. However, SSBU vs GoW was a shockingly unimpressive result by SSBU. So I can see SSBU dropping the ball.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KamikazePotato 03/11/20 8:47:19 PM #221:	Division 4 Finals Grand Theft Auto V / Persona 4 Golden / Red Dead Redemption Fire Emblem: Three Houses / Xenoblade ...where do I even begin? Okay let's get funky with stats. Numbers never lie, except when they do. https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6100-best-game-ever-day-13-oblivion-vs-super-mario-rpg https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6139-best-game-ever-day-23-round-2-grand-theft-auto-v-vs-super Grand Theft Auto 5 (2015g) VS Oblivion (2015g) Grand Theft Auto 5 has a strength of 29.29. Oblivion has a strength of 31.19. Oblivion wins with 53.05% of the vote! So...overrated in the stats or not, we at least know GTA5 gets about that much against Oblivion. https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4164-northwest-division-round-2-paper-mario-tyd-vs-oblivion Through Oblivion, GTA5 gets 52.26% on Paper Mario 2. Nifty. Paper Mario 2 (2015g) VS Persona 4 (2015g) Paper Mario 2 has a strength of 26.83. Persona 4 has a strength of 25.16. Paper Mario 2 wins with 53.11% of the vote! Paper Mario 2 (2015g) VS Red Dead Redemption (2015g) Paper Mario 2 has a strength of 26.83. Red Dead Redemption has a strength of 24.60. Paper Mario 2 wins with 54.16% of the vote! Paper Mario 2 (2015g) VS Xenoblade Chronicles (2015g) Paper Mario 2 has a strength of 26.83. Xenoblade Chronicles has a strength of 23.73. Paper Mario 2 wins with 55.78% of the vote! Paper Mario 2 (2015g) VS Fire Emblem: Awakening (2015g) Paper Mario 2 has a strength of 26.83. Fire Emblem: Awakening has a strength of 22.89. Paper Mario 2 wins with 57.34% of the vote! Yeah. I could pull out more comparisons, but essentially: even if you adjust for GTA5 potentially being over-inflated in the 2015 stats, it still did too good in 2015 and is projected to clearly beat the competition. GTA5 could drop in strength and still win. Out of all these other games, I think the one with the best chance of taking it down is Three Houses simply because it has the highest potential ceiling, but even that is a stretch. Really, the main reason to pick against GTA5 is that it's GTA. Which is always a valid reason, but at the moment I think GTA5 is the - gonna tempt fate here - safe pick. God help us all. Expected Result GTA5 > Whatever 53 - 47 --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. <cite>KamikazePotato posted [p:935552111] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>Division 4 Finals Grand Theft Auto V / Persona 4 Golden / Red Dead Redemption Fire Emblem: Three Houses / Xenoblade ...where do I even begin? Okay let's get funky with stats. Numbers never lie, except when they do. https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6100-best-game-ever-day-13-oblivion-vs-super-mario-rpg https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6139-best-game-ever-day-23-round-2-grand-theft-auto-v-vs-super Grand Theft Auto 5 (2015g) VS Oblivion (2015g) Grand Theft Auto 5 has a strength of 29.29. Oblivion has a strength of 31.19. Oblivion wins with 53.05% of the vote! So...overrated in the stats or not, we at least know GTA5 gets about that much against Oblivion. https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4164-northwest-division-round-2-paper-mario-tyd-vs-oblivion Through Oblivion, GTA5 gets 52.26% on Paper Mario 2. Nifty. Paper Mario 2 (2015g) VS Persona 4 (2015g) Paper Mario 2 has a strength of 26.83. Persona 4 has a strength of 25.16. Paper Mario 2 wins with 53.11% of the vote! Paper Mario 2 (2015g) VS Red Dead Redemption (2015g) Paper Mario 2 has a strength of 26.83. Red Dead Redemption has a strength of 24.60. Paper Mario 2 wins with 54.16% of the vote! Paper Mario 2 (2015g) VS Xenoblade Chronicles (2015g) Paper Mario 2 has a strength of 26.83. Xenoblade Chronicles has a strength of 23.73. Paper Mario 2 wins with 55.78% of the vote! Paper Mario 2 (2015g) VS Fire Emblem: Awakening (2015g) Paper Mario 2 has a strength of 26.83. Fire Emblem: Awakening has a strength of 22.89. Paper Mario 2 wins with 57.34% of the vote! Yeah. I could pull out more comparisons, but essentially: even if you adjust for GTA5 potentially being over-inflated in the 2015 stats, it still did too good in 2015 and is projected to clearly beat the competition. GTA5 could drop in strength and still win. Out of all these other games, I think the one with the best chance of taking it down is Three Houses simply because it has the highest potential ceiling, but even that is a stretch. Really, the main reason to pick against GTA5 is that it's GTA. Which is always a valid reason, but at the moment I think GTA5 is the - gonna tempt fate here - safe pick. God help us all. Expected Result GTA5 > Whatever 53 - 47 </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Advokaiser 03/11/20 8:48:00 PM #222:	Time to pull the trigger on this one! --- It's an honor being part of Board 8's community. <cite>Advokaiser posted [p:935552139] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>Time to pull the trigger on this one! </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KamikazePotato 03/11/20 8:49:22 PM #223:	Team Rocket Elite posted... That's a gutsy pick. I'm not entirely sure Odyssey is stronger than SMG. It feels like it should be except SMG came out a lot closer to 1998 and that's a tough advantage to beat. However, SSBU vs GoW was a shockingly unimpressive result by SSBU. So I can see SSBU dropping the ball. If I have one takeaway from the Best 3D Mario poll, it's that I think the hierarchy it presents seems accurate. SM64 > Odyssey > Galaxy > Sunshine. It just doesn't accurately represent the proper strength difference between them. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. <cite>KamikazePotato posted [p:935552194] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>Team Rocket Elite posted... </cite> <quote>That's a gutsy pick. I'm not entirely sure Odyssey is stronger than SMG. It feels like it should be except SMG came out a lot closer to 1998 and that's a tough advantage to beat. However, SSBU vs GoW was a shockingly unimpressive result by SSBU. So I can see SSBU dropping the ball.</quote>If I have one takeaway from the Best 3D Mario poll, it's that I think the hierarchy it presents seems accurate. SM64 > Odyssey > Galaxy > Sunshine. It just doesn't accurately represent the proper strength difference between them. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Team Rocket Elite 03/11/20 8:53:39 PM #224:	Keep in mind that Galaxy 2 was in that poll. Removing it won't go 100% into SMG but it might shred the gap between SMG and SMO by quite a bit. --- Link isn't the only one who kicks ass. Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Contest! <cite>Team Rocket Elite posted [p:935552377] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>Keep in mind that Galaxy 2 was in that poll. Removing it won't go 100% into SMG but it might shred the gap between SMG and SMO by quite a bit.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
ZeldaTPLink 03/11/20 8:54:54 PM #225:	Fuck yeah KP #teamodysseyoversmash <cite>ZeldaTPLink posted [p:935552438] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>Fuck yeah KP #teamodysseyoversmash </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KamikazePotato 03/11/20 8:55:16 PM #226:	That's a fair point and one I missed, and might actually be enough to change my opinion on the victor considering how close the match is in my mind, but I already wrote the writeup so the cost has been sunk. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. <cite>KamikazePotato posted [p:935552451] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>That's a fair point and one I missed, and might actually be enough to change my opinion on the victor considering how close the match is in my mind, but I already wrote the writeup so the cost has been sunk. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KamikazePotato 03/11/20 9:09:03 PM #227:	Division 5 Finals The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt God of War https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6141-best-game-ever-day-23-round-2-the-witcher-3-vs-metal-gear https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6204-best-of-2015-game-of-the-year https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7471-best-of-2018-game-of-the-year https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7473-best-of-2018-game-of-the-year-final-final-vote It's not outside the realm of possibility that Witcher 3 loses this. I compared God of War to The Last of Us in the Smash/Odyssey writeup, and WItcher 3 was right next to Odyssey in the 2015 stats. If you take God of War's result against Smash Ultimate as it impressing against a very strong opponent, then this might not be the worst upset pick to go with. People really like God of War. Here's the thing: people REALLY like Witcher. There is zero doubt in my mind that 2020 Witcher 3 is much stronger than 2015 Witcher 3. It's blown up considerably since then, which is impressive considering it was already very popular when it came out. The game had sold around 8 million copies around the 2015 contest and since then has sold over 20 million total. It's considered the Game of the Decade by a lot of outlets and a lot of people. It got a Switch port, and that means something on this Nintendo-loving site. It just got a super high profile and well-received Netflix show and we saw what that did for Alucard. I was impressed with God of War, and with a little luck I think it could have won a few of the other divisions, but this is too tall a mountain to climb. Witcher 3 losing this wouldn't be as embarrassing as losing to SMG2, but it would be close to it. Expected Result Witcher 3 > God of War 56 - 44 -- Division 6 Finals Persona 5 Red Dead Redemption 2 https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7471-best-of-2018-game-of-the-year https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7514-whats-your-all-time-favorite-2-game https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6953-best-of-2017-game-of-the-year https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7069-whats-your-all-time-favorite-5-game Persona 4 (2015g) VS Red Dead Redemption (2015g) Persona 4 has a strength of 25.16. Red Dead Redemption has a strength of 24.60. Persona 4 wins with 51.11% of the vote! Yeah...there is literally no reason to pick RDR2 here. Persona 5 has impressed in every poll it's been in. RDR2 has not. It has to be stronger in comparison to RDR1 than Persona 5 will be to Persona 4, and boy oh boy is that not happening. RDR1 vs. RDR2 is a wash. Persona 5 brought the series to new heights and was insanely well-received. It has more sales than Persona 4, a higher playrate, and Persona 4 doesn't even have the 'fan favorite among the hardcore fanbase' card to play. Heck, Joker is in Smash Bros, guys. If Persona 5 can't win this then I'm not sure what it takes for Persona to have mainstream success on GameFAQs. Expected Result Persona 5 > RDR2 56 - 44 --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. <cite>KamikazePotato posted [p:935553126] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>Division 5 Finals The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt God of War https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6141-best-game-ever-day-23-round-2-the-witcher-3-vs-metal-gear https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6204-best-of-2015-game-of-the-year https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7471-best-of-2018-game-of-the-year https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7473-best-of-2018-game-of-the-year-final-final-vote It's not outside the realm of possibility that Witcher 3 loses this. I compared God of War to The Last of Us in the Smash/Odyssey writeup, and WItcher 3 was right next to Odyssey in the 2015 stats. If you take God of War's result against Smash Ultimate as it impressing against a very strong opponent, then this might not be the worst upset pick to go with. People really like God of War. Here's the thing: people REALLY like Witcher. There is zero doubt in my mind that 2020 Witcher 3 is much stronger than 2015 Witcher 3. It's blown up considerably since then, which is impressive considering it was already very popular when it came out. The game had sold around 8 million copies around the 2015 contest and since then has sold over 20 million total. It's considered the Game of the Decade by a lot of outlets and a lot of people. It got a Switch port, and that means something on this Nintendo-loving site. It just got a super high profile and well-received Netflix show and we saw what that did for Alucard. I was impressed with God of War, and with a little luck I think it could have won a few of the other divisions, but this is too tall a mountain to climb. Witcher 3 losing this wouldn't be as embarrassing as losing to SMG2, but it would be close to it. Expected Result Witcher 3 > God of War 56 - 44 -- Division 6 Finals Persona 5 Red Dead Redemption 2 https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7471-best-of-2018-game-of-the-year https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7514-whats-your-all-time-favorite-2-game https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6953-best-of-2017-game-of-the-year https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7069-whats-your-all-time-favorite-5-game Persona 4 (2015g) VS Red Dead Redemption (2015g) Persona 4 has a strength of 25.16. Red Dead Redemption has a strength of 24.60. Persona 4 wins with 51.11% of the vote! Yeah...there is literally no reason to pick RDR2 here. Persona 5 has impressed in every poll it's been in. RDR2 has not. It has to be stronger in comparison to RDR1 than Persona 5 will be to Persona 4, and boy oh boy is that not happening. RDR1 vs. RDR2 is a wash. Persona 5 brought the series to new heights and was insanely well-received. It has more sales than Persona 4, a higher playrate, and Persona 4 doesn't even have the 'fan favorite among the hardcore fanbase' card to play. Heck, Joker is in Smash Bros, guys. If Persona 5 can't win this then I'm not sure what it takes for Persona to have mainstream success on GameFAQs. Expected Result Persona 5 > RDR2 56 - 44 </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Team Rocket Elite 03/11/20 9:12:40 PM #228:	Persona 4 isn't the "fan favorite among the hardcore fanbase"? I thought it was. --- Link isn't the only one who kicks ass. Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Contest! <cite>Team Rocket Elite posted [p:935553304] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>Persona 4 isn't the "fan favorite among the hardcore fanbase"? I thought it was.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KamikazePotato 03/11/20 9:14:29 PM #229:	Team Rocket Elite posted... Persona 4 isn't the "fan favorite among the hardcore fanbase"? I thought it was. I'm mostly going off of Board 8 - every poll I've seen here has Persona 5 edging out Persona 4. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. <cite>KamikazePotato posted [p:935553406] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>Team Rocket Elite posted... </cite> <quote>Persona 4 isn't the "fan favorite among the hardcore fanbase"? I thought it was.</quote>I'm mostly going off of Board 8 - every poll I've seen here has Persona 5 edging out Persona 4. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
xp1337 03/11/20 9:17:40 PM #230:	Team Rocket Elite posted... Persona 4 isn't the "fan favorite among the hardcore fanbase"? I thought it was. the true hardcore fanbase prefers persona 3. some say if you stare into the abyss too long you can find the group that says persona 2. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? <cite>xp1337 posted [p:935553585] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>Team Rocket Elite posted... </cite> <quote>Persona 4 isn't the "fan favorite among the hardcore fanbase"? I thought it was.</quote>the true hardcore fanbase prefers persona 3. some say if you stare into the abyss too long you can find the group that says persona 2. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KamikazePotato 03/11/20 9:22:35 PM #231:	Division 7 Finals Dark Souls The Last of Us https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6136-best-game-ever-day-22-round-2-metal-gear-solid-v-vs-dark https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6157-best-game-ever-day-30-round-3-zelda-a-link-to-the-past-vs https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5383-best-of-2013-game-of-the-year-final https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6058-best-game-ever-day-2-the-last-of-us-vs-halo-3 https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6118-best-game-ever-day-17-round-2-kingdom-hearts-ii-vs-the-last Dark Souls (2015g) VS The Last of Us (2015g) Dark Souls has a strength of 25.11. The Last of Us has a strength of 27.36. The Last of Us wins with 54.11% of the vote! I think people don't realize how bad that LTTP result is for Dark Souls. People wrote it off as 'yeah LTTP is a beast whatever', but it didn't even break 30%. Dark Souls actually missed out on ranking in the top half of the X-stats (by one spot) and that's not great! I almost want to imagine that LTTP gave it some sort of weird SFF but that's wishful thinking on my part. GameFAQs likes easy, narrative-driven games and From Software does not fit that bill. Actually, in general I think From Software games are not as widely liked as they're made out to be. Their reputation is somewhat of a bigger deal than the games themselves. Everyone respects them but they don't at all fit the mold of what mainstream games are - general gamers also like easy, narrative-driven games. It's honestly amazing that they've grown to be as big as they are considering the difficulty and lack of handholding. So yeah, I can't take Dark Souls here. Maybe against a lesser-respected game than Last of Us, as Dark Souls might benefit from the 'Game of the Decade' moniker of the contest, but TLOU is also on the Game of the Decade shortlist for many people and is just as respected as Dark Souls is. I'm expecting/hoping that Dark Souls will be a bit stronger this time, as From Software games have grown solidly in popularity throughout the years, but I don't think it will be enough. Last of Us is the smart money. Expected Result The Last of Us > Dark Souls 52 - 48 --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. <cite>KamikazePotato posted [p:935553837] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>Division 7 Finals Dark Souls The Last of Us https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6136-best-game-ever-day-22-round-2-metal-gear-solid-v-vs-dark https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6157-best-game-ever-day-30-round-3-zelda-a-link-to-the-past-vs https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5383-best-of-2013-game-of-the-year-final https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6058-best-game-ever-day-2-the-last-of-us-vs-halo-3 https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6118-best-game-ever-day-17-round-2-kingdom-hearts-ii-vs-the-last Dark Souls (2015g) VS The Last of Us (2015g) Dark Souls has a strength of 25.11. The Last of Us has a strength of 27.36. The Last of Us wins with 54.11% of the vote! I think people don't realize how bad that LTTP result is for Dark Souls. People wrote it off as 'yeah LTTP is a beast whatever', but it didn't even break 30%. Dark Souls actually missed out on ranking in the top half of the X-stats (by one spot) and that's not great! I almost want to imagine that LTTP gave it some sort of weird SFF but that's wishful thinking on my part. GameFAQs likes easy, narrative-driven games and From Software does not fit that bill. Actually, in general I think From Software games are not as widely liked as they're made out to be. Their reputation is somewhat of a bigger deal than the games themselves. Everyone respects them but they don't at all fit the mold of what mainstream games are - general gamers also like easy, narrative-driven games. It's honestly amazing that they've grown to be as big as they are considering the difficulty and lack of handholding. So yeah, I can't take Dark Souls here. Maybe against a lesser-respected game than Last of Us, as Dark Souls might benefit from the 'Game of the Decade' moniker of the contest, but TLOU is also on the Game of the Decade shortlist for many people and is just as respected as Dark Souls is. I'm expecting/hoping that Dark Souls will be a bit stronger this time, as From Software games have grown solidly in popularity throughout the years, but I don't think it will be enough. Last of Us is the smart money. Expected Result The Last of Us > Dark Souls 52 - 48 </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KamikazePotato 03/11/20 9:33:27 PM #232:	Division 8 Finals Elder Scrolls: Skyrim Pokemon HeartGold https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6153-best-game-ever-day-28-round-3-skyrim-vs-metroid-prime https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6166-best-game-ever-day-34-division-iv-final-skyrim-vs-super https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7069-whats-your-all-time-favorite-5-game Skyrim's run in 2015 is hard to measure because it was in the Undertale splash zone for its entire run, but if nothing else I think the Metroid Prime result is fairly accurate. And honestly, that did not impress me. Skyrim was the game for a long time. Look at this nonsense: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4594-best-of-2011-game-of-the-year https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4962-best-of-2012-game-of-the-generation-2006-2012 Lots of Nintendo LFF going around, but still. Going from that to squeaking by a well-regarded Gamecube game and getting crushed by SM64 is disappointing. Skyrim represents the apex of what a western game can accomplish on GameFAQs, and it didn't accomplish that much, all things considered. Maybe I'm underselling being #16 in the X-stats but Skyrim DOMINATED gaming while it was at its peak. I'm not sure it's still at its peak. The game is still very well-liked, but at this point people are kind of tired of Bethesda's shit. Fallout 4 and Fallout 76 have shown how little the company is willing to advance, and some of that ill will has turned back towards Skyrim. People rolled with the fact that Skyrim's engine and mechanics were Oblivion+, but the subsequent games also being Oblivion+ is eeeeh. It's not a huge factor but your company's name getting dragged through the mud never helpes. It still win this match though. Take a look: Skyrim (2015g) VS Pokemon G/S/C (2015g) Skyrim has a strength of 34.93. Pokemon G/S/C has a strength of 33.68. Skyrim wins with 51.79% of the vote! I'm not going to reiterate my feelings on HGSS from the Nier writeup, as it would be a lot of repeating myself, but essentially? Even if Skyrim is a little weaker this time around, HGSS not being GSC matters more. You can still roll with HGSS, and it could still win, but I'm reminded of the previous Game of the Decade contest where people took GSC to win the contest and that didn't turn out so great. Expected Results Skyrim > HGSS 55 - 45 --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. <cite>KamikazePotato posted [p:935554470] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>Division 8 Finals Elder Scrolls: Skyrim Pokemon HeartGold https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6153-best-game-ever-day-28-round-3-skyrim-vs-metroid-prime https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6166-best-game-ever-day-34-division-iv-final-skyrim-vs-super https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7069-whats-your-all-time-favorite-5-game Skyrim's run in 2015 is hard to measure because it was in the Undertale splash zone for its entire run, but if nothing else I think the Metroid Prime result is fairly accurate. And honestly, that did not impress me. Skyrim was the game for a long time. Look at this nonsense: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4594-best-of-2011-game-of-the-year https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4962-best-of-2012-game-of-the-generation-2006-2012 Lots of Nintendo LFF going around, but still. Going from that to squeaking by a well-regarded Gamecube game and getting crushed by SM64 is disappointing. Skyrim represents the apex of what a western game can accomplish on GameFAQs, and it didn't accomplish that much, all things considered. Maybe I'm underselling being #16 in the X-stats but Skyrim DOMINATED gaming while it was at its peak. I'm not sure it's still at its peak. The game is still very well-liked, but at this point people are kind of tired of Bethesda's shit. Fallout 4 and Fallout 76 have shown how little the company is willing to advance, and some of that ill will has turned back towards Skyrim. People rolled with the fact that Skyrim's engine and mechanics were Oblivion+, but the subsequent games also being Oblivion+ is eeeeh. It's not a huge factor but your company's name getting dragged through the mud never helpes. It still win this match though. Take a look: Skyrim (2015g) VS Pokemon G/S/C (2015g) Skyrim has a strength of 34.93. Pokemon G/S/C has a strength of 33.68. Skyrim wins with 51.79% of the vote! I'm not going to reiterate my feelings on HGSS from the Nier writeup, as it would be a lot of repeating myself, but essentially? Even if Skyrim is a little weaker this time around, HGSS not being GSC matters more. You can still roll with HGSS, and it could still win, but I'm reminded of the previous Game of the Decade contest where people took GSC to win the contest and that didn't turn out so great. Expected Results Skyrim > HGSS 55 - 45 </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Leonhart4 03/11/20 9:34:30 PM #233:	I feel like Odyssey is just Galaxy 2.0. It's a Mario game that received universal praise, incredible sales, and by every metric should be a really strong game. And yet I don't see it overcoming Smash Ultimate when it constantly keeps itself relevant with (mostly) well received DLC characters. Also I think people are really sleeping on GoW. I give it a much better shot at beating Witcher 3 than most around here seem to. --- https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB <cite>Leonhart4 posted [p:935554546] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>I feel like Odyssey is just Galaxy 2.0. It's a Mario game that received universal praise, incredible sales, and by every metric should be a really strong game. And yet I don't see it overcoming Smash Ultimate when it constantly keeps itself relevant with (mostly) well received DLC characters. Also I think people are really sleeping on GoW. I give it a much better shot at beating Witcher 3 than most around here seem to. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Team Rocket Elite 03/11/20 9:40:43 PM #234:	What little information we have ties SSBU and GoW together. If that result was mostly SSBU being weak, it also pushes GoW below Witcher 3. If SSBU is weak enough to lose to SMO, GoW is likely weaker than Witcher 3 as well. But as always keep in mind that SSBU and GoW are connected via a (1v1) GotY poll which might simply not hold up in a contest. --- Link isn't the only one who kicks ass. Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Contest! <cite>Team Rocket Elite posted [p:935554901] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>What little information we have ties SSBU and GoW together. If that result was mostly SSBU being weak, it also pushes GoW below Witcher 3. If SSBU is weak enough to lose to SMO, GoW is likely weaker than Witcher 3 as well. But as always keep in mind that SSBU and GoW are connected via a (1v1) GotY poll which might simply not hold up in a contest.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Leonhart4 03/11/20 9:52:02 PM #235:	GotY results often play out differently than the real thing. We've seen LttP beat OoT and FFVI beat FFVII in POTDs --- https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB <cite>Leonhart4 posted [p:935555487] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>GotY results often play out differently than the real thing. We've seen LttP beat OoT and FFVI beat FFVII in POTDs </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
ZeldaTPLink 03/11/20 10:02:48 PM #236:	I also thought the same thing about the Smash poll being a fraud. It means people prefer Ultimate now, because it's a better game than its predecessors. But it doesn't mean people love Ultimate anymore than they loved other Smashes when they first came out. But Mario is a series where each game doesn't just replace the previous one. They are different. And I feel like people who like Odyssey really love it. This feels like the champion of the people going against the mainstream monster. I'll take the champion. (Also I want a killer upset for my bracket) <cite>ZeldaTPLink posted [p:935556099] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>I also thought the same thing about the Smash poll being a fraud. It means people prefer Ultimate now, because it's a better game than its predecessors. But it doesn't mean people love Ultimate anymore than they loved other Smashes when they first came out. But Mario is a series where each game doesn't just replace the previous one. They are different. And I feel like people who like Odyssey really love it. This feels like the champion of the people going against the mainstream monster. I'll take the champion. (Also I want a killer upset for my bracket) </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Leonhart4 03/11/20 10:05:44 PM #237:	People who like Galaxy really love it, too! It checks off every single box that Odyssey does! I mean, it won't be a total stunner if it wins because who even knows with this contest, but I don't have any faith in a modern Mario having elite strength if Galaxy couldn't have it. --- https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB <cite>Leonhart4 posted [p:935556262] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>People who like Galaxy really love it, too! It checks off every single box that Odyssey does! I mean, it won't be a total stunner if it wins because who even knows with this contest, but I don't have any faith in a modern Mario having elite strength if Galaxy couldn't have it. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Mac Arrowny 03/11/20 10:13:43 PM #238:	KamikazePotato posted... And hey, look at these 2015 X-stat values: Mario 64 - 41.96 SSB Melee - 38.28 These values are entirely made up... --- All the stars in the sky are waiting for you. <cite>Mac Arrowny posted [p:935556703] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>KamikazePotato posted...</cite> <quote>And hey, look at these 2015 X-stat values: Mario 64 - 41.96 SSB Melee - 38.28</quote> These values are entirely made up...</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KamikazePotato 03/11/20 10:24:14 PM #239:	http://www.thengamer.com/xstats/ranks.php?year=2015g --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. <cite>KamikazePotato posted [p:935557249] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>http://www.thengamer.com/xstats/ranks.php?year=2015g </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Leonhart4 03/11/20 10:26:24 PM #240:	I think the point is that those values are your best guess (based on a lot of work, but nevertheless), not necessarily something to be taken as gospel. Plus, CT went from losing to Mario 64 outright in 2009 to looking strong enough to beat OoT in 2015! A lot changes in 5 years! --- https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB <cite>Leonhart4 posted [p:935557387] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>I think the point is that those values are your best guess (based on a lot of work, but nevertheless), not necessarily something to be taken as gospel. Plus, CT went from losing to Mario 64 outright in 2009 to looking strong enough to beat OoT in 2015! A lot changes in 5 years! </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
MetalmindStats 03/11/20 10:51:59 PM #241:	KamikazePotato posted... I wonder if I can get away with not giving BotW a proper writeup this entire topic. Would anyone blame me? I'll have more to say about this below, but I do have to question this, if only because you're expecting DQXI to improve on Halo Reach by a mere two percentage points. Granted, your prediction for this match looks more or less accurate to me; the problem is that BotW only 70-30'ing Halo Reach would be godawful for it even by my low standards. Regarding Smash Ultimate/Mario Odyssey, I would honestly sooner expect Smash Ultimate to SFF Mario Odyssey a bit in an Ulti-style blowout than Mario Odyssey to actually score the upset. Maybe that's because I'm low on BotW respect, considering most of B8 seems to expect a godslayer that would at least 60-40 anything else in this bracket without massive rallies. On top of that, I feel compelled to point out how Captain Toad is the only Mario entrant from this millennium Board 8 didn't previously overestimate. Considering how much of a non-entity his game is, it's safe to say that's only because voters viewed him as Toad and voted accordingly. In other words, Board 8 would lead you to believe GameFAQs as a whole really cares about modern Mario, but past results put in question how much voters actually care. KamikazePotato posted... Witcher 3 losing this wouldn't be as embarrassing as losing to SMG2, but it would be close to it. I can't say I agree with this - God of War's raw results are substantially better than Witcher 3's, and the two games' leads looked about on par in 2018 (though you might not realize it because their paths differed so much). I'm still fully expecting Witcher 3 to prevail here for most of the reasons you mentioned, but a close loss would hardly be embarrassing in my book. KamikazePotato posted... Lots of Nintendo LFF going around Yeah, the 2011 GotY poll looks like 2015 Skyrim SFFing 2015 Arkham City a fair bit, which lines up with the typical patterns of GotY polls with similarly-appealing games of entirely different strength tiers. Meanwhile, the Game of the Generation poll saw three similar(ish) strength Nintendo games ravage each other with LFF, allowing 2015 Skyrim to cruise unopposed as the clear strongest Western game. 2015 Skyrim falling off a bit (let's not sell 39% on Mario 64 while having to deal with Undertale rallies short) from its peak would hardly be surprising, but I don't think those polls are sufficient evidence of it. --- "I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do." You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you! <cite>MetalmindStats posted [p:935558518] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>KamikazePotato posted... </cite> <quote>I wonder if I can get away with not giving BotW a proper writeup this entire topic. Would anyone blame me?</quote>I'll have more to say about this below, but I do have to question this, if only because you're expecting DQXI to improve on Halo Reach by a mere two percentage points. Granted, your prediction for this match looks more or less accurate to me; the problem is that BotW only 70-30'ing Halo Reach would be godawful for it even by my low standards. Regarding Smash Ultimate/Mario Odyssey, I would honestly sooner expect Smash Ultimate to SFF Mario Odyssey a bit in an Ulti-style blowout than Mario Odyssey to actually score the upset. Maybe that's because I'm low on BotW respect, considering most of B8 seems to expect a godslayer that would at least 60-40 anything else in this bracket without massive rallies. On top of that, I feel compelled to point out how Captain Toad is the only Mario entrant from this millennium Board 8 didn't previously overestimate. Considering how much of a non-entity his game is, it's safe to say that's only because voters viewed him as Toad and voted accordingly. In other words, Board 8 would lead you to believe GameFAQs as a whole really cares about modern Mario, but past results put in question how much voters actually care. KamikazePotato posted... </cite> <quote>Witcher 3 losing this wouldn't be as embarrassing as losing to SMG2, but it would be close to it.</quote>I can't say I agree with this - God of War's raw results are substantially better than Witcher 3's, and the two games' leads looked about on par in 2018 (though you might not realize it because their paths differed so much). I'm still fully expecting Witcher 3 to prevail here for most of the reasons you mentioned, but a close loss would hardly be embarrassing in my book. KamikazePotato posted... </cite> <quote>Lots of Nintendo LFF going around</quote>Yeah, the 2011 GotY poll looks like 2015 Skyrim SFFing 2015 Arkham City a fair bit, which lines up with the typical patterns of GotY polls with similarly-appealing games of entirely different strength tiers. Meanwhile, the Game of the Generation poll saw three similar(ish) strength Nintendo games ravage each other with LFF, allowing 2015 Skyrim to cruise unopposed as the clear strongest Western game. 2015 Skyrim falling off a bit (let's not sell 39% on Mario 64 while having to deal with Undertale rallies short) from its peak would hardly be surprising, but I don't think those polls are sufficient evidence of it. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KamikazePotato 03/11/20 11:05:07 PM #242:	I'm phoning in the percentages for the blowouts. Maybe BotW gets 60% or 70% or 80% - it doesn't matter in the end. Leonhart4 posted... I think the point is that those values are your best guess (based on a lot of work, but nevertheless), not necessarily something to be taken as gospel. In a topic about my predictions, whose data would I follow but my own? --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. <cite>KamikazePotato posted [p:935559054] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>I'm phoning in the percentages for the blowouts. Maybe BotW gets 60% or 70% or 80% - it doesn't matter in the end. Leonhart4 posted... </cite> <quote>I think the point is that those values are your best guess (based on a lot of work, but nevertheless), not necessarily something to be taken as gospel.</quote>In a topic about my predictions, whose data would I follow but my own? </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Leonhart4 03/12/20 12:04:06 AM #243:	Well, sure, but there's reason to be skeptical, especially when it comes to things that were directly affected by rallying, which Mario 64 and Melee both were. --- https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB <cite>Leonhart4 posted [p:935561411] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>Well, sure, but there's reason to be skeptical, especially when it comes to things that were directly affected by rallying, which Mario 64 and Melee both were. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KamikazePotato 03/12/20 12:27:52 AM #244:	The rallying for Melee was pretty easy to correct. Mario 64 not so much but eh, what are you gonna do. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. <cite>KamikazePotato posted [p:935562245] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>The rallying for Melee was pretty easy to correct. Mario 64 not so much but eh, what are you gonna do. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Big Bob 03/12/20 12:45:14 AM #245:	The Last of Us will get a pandemic boost. --- Come watch me on Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/gameryogi <cite>Big Bob posted [p:935562720] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>The Last of Us will get a pandemic boost. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Leonhart4 03/12/20 12:50:58 AM #246:	KamikazePotato posted... The rallying for Melee was pretty easy to correct. Mario 64 not so much but eh, what are you gonna do. Eh, it's difficult to tell exactly where CT would've finished if the rally hadn't interfered. Either way, Melee wouldn't be much above FFX. --- https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB <cite>Leonhart4 posted [p:935562872] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>KamikazePotato posted... </cite> <quote>The rallying for Melee was pretty easy to correct. Mario 64 not so much but eh, what are you gonna do.</quote> Eh, it's difficult to tell exactly where CT would've finished if the rally hadn't interfered. Either way, Melee wouldn't be much above FFX. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KamikazePotato 03/12/20 12:57:20 AM #247:	Melee didn't end up much above FFX! If I recall correctly, Melee was adjusted based on KH2 and GSC (before that rally locked on midway) and it worked out well. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. <cite>KamikazePotato posted [p:935563036] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>Melee didn't end up much above FFX! If I recall correctly, Melee was adjusted based on KH2 and GSC (before that rally locked on midway) and it worked out well. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LeonhartFour 03/12/20 1:11:27 AM #248:	Well, I'm saying Melee probably wouldn't be difficult to find a reasonable range for because you'd have to believe KH2 beats FFX to put it any higher than it is. Mario 64 is really difficult to peg, but I also don't think it means anything for Odyssey or its chances to beat Ultimate. I think it's much more likely that Ultimate beats Odyssey easily than the other way around. If Odyssey wins, it's probably by the skin of its teeth. KamikazePotato posted... I would take Melee to be stronger, and I would be comfortable with that. Brawl was about equal to Melee and it was the most hyped game this site has ever had and had a much higher playrate. Yeah, but Brawl had a significant portion of the fanbase that was actively anti-voting it, and it was still stronger than Melee. Ultimate doesn't have that problem. And I don't know that I'd say it has a much higher playrate when Ultimate is the best-selling Smash game and the Switch is at its peak, while the Wii was already starting to fall off by the time GOTD1 hit. KamikazePotato posted... I keep going back to Ultimate's GotY poll and can't help but think that Odyssey would have done better there. but this is the thing this is what everyone thinks with modern Mario games we all think they should be a lot more popular than they are just about every Mario game was a massive favorite in round 1 in GOTD1 because it's freakin' Mario and Sunshine lost to Halo 3 and NSMBWii lost to MvC2. MKWii almost lost to Phoenix Wright. Galaxy was unimpressive against a Gen 3 Pokemon game and lost easily to Twilight Princess. Ultimate probably won't blow it out, but its ceiling is higher than Odyssey's, which I don't think will reach elite tier strength, just like Galaxy never did. You can argue Galaxy is stronger than we think, and it might be, but it still lost handily to two elite tier Nintendo games. (also I think Smash 4 is probably a good deal overrated in the 2015 stats due to facing FFVII, which is a prime opponent for it to overperform against, which would also explain stuff like how ME1 placed higher than ME2 in the X-Stats, but it was also a Wii U game on a site that never embraced the Wii U; a mainline Smash that isn't the original is only going to be so weak, and it has a very high floor) --- http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/080/145/638.png https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq <cite>LeonhartFour posted [p:935563405] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>Well, I'm saying Melee probably wouldn't be difficult to find a reasonable range for because you'd have to believe KH2 beats FFX to put it any higher than it is. Mario 64 is really difficult to peg, but I also don't think it means anything for Odyssey or its chances to beat Ultimate. I think it's much more likely that Ultimate beats Odyssey easily than the other way around. If Odyssey wins, it's probably by the skin of its teeth. KamikazePotato posted... </cite> <quote>I would take Melee to be stronger, and I would be comfortable with that. Brawl was about equal to Melee and it was the most hyped game this site has ever had and had a much higher playrate.</quote> Yeah, but Brawl had a significant portion of the fanbase that was actively anti-voting it, and it was still stronger than Melee. Ultimate doesn't have that problem. And I don't know that I'd say it has a much higher playrate when Ultimate is the best-selling Smash game and the Switch is at its peak, while the Wii was already starting to fall off by the time GOTD1 hit. KamikazePotato posted... </cite> <quote>I keep going back to Ultimate's GotY poll and can't help but think that Odyssey would have done better there.</quote> but this is the thing this is what everyone thinks with modern Mario games we all think they should be a lot more popular than they are just about every Mario game was a massive favorite in round 1 in GOTD1 because it's freakin' Mario and Sunshine lost to Halo 3 and NSMBWii lost to MvC2. MKWii almost lost to Phoenix Wright. Galaxy was unimpressive against a Gen 3 Pokemon game and lost easily to Twilight Princess. Ultimate probably won't blow it out, but its ceiling is higher than Odyssey's, which I don't think will reach elite tier strength, just like Galaxy never did. You can argue Galaxy is stronger than we think, and it might be, but it still lost handily to two elite tier Nintendo games. (also I think Smash 4 is probably a good deal overrated in the 2015 stats due to facing FFVII, which is a prime opponent for it to overperform against, which would also explain stuff like how ME1 placed higher than ME2 in the X-Stats, but it was also a Wii U game on a site that never embraced the Wii U; a mainline Smash that isn't the original is only going to be so weak, and it has a very high floor) </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
ZeldaTPLink 03/12/20 6:46:56 AM #249:	LeonhartFour posted... Yeah, but Brawl had a significant portion of the fanbase that was actively anti-voting it, and it was still stronger than Melee. Ultimate doesn't have that problem. And I don't know that I'd say it has a much higher playrate when Ultimate is the best-selling Smash game and the Switch is at its peak, while the Wii was already starting to fall off by the time GOTD1 hit. Doesn't this explain Galaxy's weakess tho As opposed to anything in the Switch <cite>ZeldaTPLink posted [p:935568431] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>LeonhartFour posted... </cite> <quote> Yeah, but Brawl had a significant portion of the fanbase that was actively anti-voting it, and it was still stronger than Melee. Ultimate doesn't have that problem. And I don't know that I'd say it has a much higher playrate when Ultimate is the best-selling Smash game and the Switch is at its peak, while the Wii was already starting to fall off by the time GOTD1 hit.</quote> Doesn't this explain Galaxy's weakess tho As opposed to anything in the Switch </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Leonhart4 03/12/20 8:11:06 AM #250:	ZeldaTPLink posted... Doesn't this explain Galaxy's weakess tho As opposed to anything in the Switch Not really since Brawl was still strong enough to potentially win the contest. TP is a Wii game too and still has done well. Odyssey might be better but that argument applies to Ultimate too anyway. --- https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB <cite>Leonhart4 posted [p:935569771] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>ZeldaTPLink posted... </cite> <quote>Doesn't this explain Galaxy's weakess tho As opposed to anything in the Switch</quote> Not really since Brawl was still strong enough to potentially win the contest. TP is a Wii game too and still has done well. Odyssey might be better but that argument applies to Ultimate too anyway. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KanzarisKelshen 03/12/20 9:01:53 AM #251:	You might be right, but Odyssey was kind of a phenomenon in a way Galaxy wasn't. Maybe it's too long ago for me to remember right, but did it have the marketing blitz Odyssey had, with sick ads playing on TV, an intro trailer that blew the doors off a Zelda's in views, etcetera etcetera etcetera? They feel different in splash, somehow. --- Shine on, you crazy diamond. <cite>KanzarisKelshen posted [p:935570777] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>You might be right, but Odyssey was kind of a phenomenon in a way Galaxy wasn't. Maybe it's too long ago for me to remember right, but did it have the marketing blitz Odyssey had, with sick ads playing on TV, an intro trailer that blew the doors off a Zelda's in views, etcetera etcetera etcetera? They feel different in splash, somehow. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
linid0t 03/12/20 9:13:04 AM #252:	Big Bob posted... The Last of Us will get a pandemic boost. ...maybe --- God is not preparing you for anything, you are just suffering <cite>linid0t posted [p:935571034] in In-Depth C... [t:78438768]...</cite> <quote>Big Bob posted... </cite> <quote>The Last of Us will get a pandemic boost.</quote> ...maybe </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Board 8 > In-Depth Contest Analysis (2020 Version) (+) Yeah! (+)

Board 8 > In-Depth Contest Analysis (2020 Version)