Board 8 > In-Depth Contest Analysis (2020 Version)

Topic List
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Mac Arrowny
03/12/20 9:28:45 AM
#253:


KanzarisKelshen posted...
You might be right, but Odyssey was kind of a phenomenon in a way Galaxy wasn't. Maybe it's too long ago for me to remember right, but did it have the marketing blitz Odyssey had, with sick ads playing on TV, an intro trailer that blew the doors off a Zelda's in views, etcetera etcetera etcetera?


It definitely did!
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Leonhart4
03/12/20 10:42:21 AM
#254:


Yeah, you guys aren't properly remembering how big of a deal Galaxy was.

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Leonhart4
03/12/20 10:56:25 AM
#255:


And Mario will always outdraw Zelda in the mainstream, but that doesn't mean anything for the purposes of the contest!

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Lightning Strikes
03/12/20 11:10:38 AM
#256:


Galaxy was a big deal but Odyssey was bigger. It was the return of core Mario games, you had a song from it topping itunes charts, its two main trailers are Nintendos two most viewed game trailers ever (with the E3 trailer being widely regarded as one of the all-time great game trailers) and then it came out and got as good or better reception than Galaxy and became the highest selling 3D Mario by a lot. Its the most hype Ive ever seen around a Super Mario game by a long way.

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Leonhart4
03/12/20 11:16:45 AM
#257:


I've said it's probably stronger than Galaxy. It has reasons to be. I don't think it has a lot of reasons to be stronger than Ultimate though, and we always tend to overestimate Mario in general in contests. People believed Mario might be the #2 character for years despite questionable performances, and 2018 showed that he's not as good as people thought.

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KamikazePotato
03/13/20 2:05:15 AM
#258:


Contest starts on the...19th? Still got time.

Odyssey absolutely seemed like a bigger cultural event to me than Galaxy. Wouldn't be banking on it otherwise.

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LeonhartFour
03/13/20 3:59:17 AM
#259:


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OrangeCrush980
03/13/20 7:08:07 AM
#260:


It's simple. Smash has Link as a playable character, so Smash uses the LAW to beat anything that isn't either a Zelda game or another Smash game (and it can still win those too, it just has to try)

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shane15
03/13/20 7:42:52 AM
#261:


I actually changed to TLOU in my bracket before reading this and now i feel more confident in that pick. You have to go against the grain in some matches.

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Safer_777
03/13/20 1:39:42 PM
#262:


@OrangeCrush980 You are right. You would think that after all these contests people would know how they work.

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KamikazePotato
03/13/20 11:07:42 PM
#263:


Quarterfinal Match 1
Zelda: Breath of the Wild
Mass Effect 2

Shep's not coming back from this suicide mission.

Expected Results
...Okay I guess I'll actually include some analysis this time.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6953-best-of-2017-game-of-the-year
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7610-whats-your-all-time-favorite-legend-of-zelda-console-game

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4218-best-of-2010-game-of-the-year-final
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6162-best-game-ever-day-32-round-3-metal-gear-solid-3-vs-mass
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7514-whats-your-all-time-favorite-2-game

It's really hard to put into words how absolutely boned Mass Effect 2 - and every other game in this contest - is. This site probably wouldn't be called NintendoFAQs by contest vets on B8 if it wasn't for Zelda in general. Link and Ocarina of Time have only ever lost to non-rallies once, back during the brief period where FF7 was king. Outside of that, it's been one long konga line of the Zelda series humiliating the rest of the field. The last time we had Game of the Decade an N64 game won it because it was ZELDA, and the games it beat to take that crown - Peak Brawl and Peak FFX - would probably ace this field.

And Breath of the Wild is going to be more than Majora's Mask. The 'favorite Zelda' poll already implies that, but even if BotW had never been in a single poll on GameFAQs everyone here would still be taking it to win. Breath of the Wild, more than any other game in this contest, is the Game of the Decade. Here, there, everywhere on the internet. Even places that aren't Nintendo fanboys like us are giving it the nod for their top GotD. It blew everyone's socks off, has sold the most in the series, and breathed fresh air into a series that for many, was getting stale.

I'm...not sure how much that last bit actually helps on GameFAQs as we love stale old things with every fiber of our being, but I digress. Breath of the Wild has every reason to be the 3rd-strongest Zelda game. Stronger than Majora, Wind Waker, ect. Heck, if it can pull off weirdness like this:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6168-best-game-ever-day-35-division-vi-final-zelda-a-link-to-the

You could even make a case for it beating LTTP directly. The ONLY thing in the bracket I can see challenging Breath of the Wild is Smash Ultimate at its absolute highest strength ceiling; it's far, far more likely that the LAW prevails.

Unless there's a big rally, but if that happens, this topic was worthless anyway!

Expected Result
Breath of the Wild > Mass Effect 2
67 - 33

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KamikazePotato
03/13/20 11:18:29 PM
#264:


Quarterfinal Match 2
Super Mario Odyssey / Smash Ultimate
Grand Theft Auto V

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6946-best-of-2017-switch
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7472-best-of-2018-game-of-the-year-final-vote

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6139-best-game-ever-day-23-round-2-grand-theft-auto-v-vs-super

Whichever Rockstar game or JRPG scrapes through the Division 4 gauntlet has the privilege of running headlong into a Nintendo brick. Congratulations!

I've discussed all these games at length before, so I'll be blunt and say the Division 4 winner has no chance. I can't think of a single result, stat, or piece of common wisdom that lets you pick GTAV, Persona, Xenoblade ect. over Smash Ultimate or Odyssey. Not even in GTA5's probably-overflated 2015 Stats does it beat Mario Galaxy, sooo yeah.

Expected Result
Nintendo > Just Happy It Got This Far
57 - 43

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KamikazePotato
03/13/20 11:32:20 PM
#265:


Quarterfinal Match 3
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt
Persona 5

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6141-best-game-ever-day-23-round-2-the-witcher-3-vs-metal-gear
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6204-best-of-2015-game-of-the-year

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6953-best-of-2017-game-of-the-year
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7069-whats-your-all-time-favorite-5-game

I kinda want to take Persona 5 here. Witcher 3 might have won GotY but Persona 5 avoiding the doubling by Breath of the Wild might actually be the better result! I would certainly take Persona 5 over 2015 Witcher 3. 2015 Witcher 3, while a solid entrant, wasn't the potential beast 2020 Witcher is. I've already gone over all the reasons why I have faith in Witcher this time around, so I'll skip the buildup and go straight to sweet, sweet stats:

The Witcher 3 (2015g) VS Persona 4 (2015g)
The Witcher 3 has a strength of 27.56.
Persona 4 has a strength of 25.16.
The Witcher 3 wins with 54.35% of the vote!

Persona 5 has a lot of ground to make up there - it has to be significantly stronger than Persona 4 to a point that it bridges the gap between 2015 Witcher 3 and Persona 4, THEN bridges the gap between 2015 Witcher 3 and 2020 Witcher 3. That's a really tall order, and while theoretically possible, I think Witcher 3 is the safe pick.

It doesn't help that Persona, despite its reputation, has consistently struggled to find real contest success. P3 is borderline fodder and P4 is strictly average (literally, it was in the direct center of the 2015 X-stats). When your series' claim to fame is edging out Dead Rising, there's grounds to be worried. Persona has grown since then but Joker (with a pic disadvantage) still lost to Claire Redfield so eeeeh. I have faith in it, but there's always the possibility that Persona 5 doesn't live up to that 1 Seed.

If Witcher fails to live up to expectations, though, Persona could easily take this. It has a lot going for it right now, what with Smash Bros and the re-release and the Musou game no one really asked for (but still looks pretty nifty).

Expected Result
Witcher 3 > Persona 5
53 - 47

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KamikazePotato
03/13/20 11:36:10 PM
#266:


Quarterfinal Match 3
The Last of Us / Dark Souls
Elder Scrolls: Skyrim

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6118-best-game-ever-day-17-round-2-kingdom-hearts-ii-vs-the-last
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6166-best-game-ever-day-34-division-iv-final-skyrim-vs-super

Skyrim (2015g) VS The Last of Us (2015g)
Skyrim has a strength of 34.93.
The Last of Us has a strength of 27.36.
Skyrim wins with 60.84% of the vote!

Skyrim did about as well on Super Mario 64 as Last of Us did against Kingdom Hearts 2. Unless Dark Souls is here and getting a frankly massive GotD Respect Boost, then Skyrim has 0 reason to lose. Done deal.

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Expected Result
Skyrim > The Last of Us
60 - 40

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KamikazePotato
03/13/20 11:43:33 PM
#267:


Semifinal Match 1
Zelda: Breath of the Wild
Super Mario Odyssey / Smash Ultimate

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6946-best-of-2017-switch

*looks at Switch GotY poll*

lmao

I don't think it'll be as bad in a 1 v 1 match, but still, lmao

Alright let's assume Smash Ultimate is here and it's going WHOLE HOG this year. Can it pull it off?

SSB Melee (2015g) VS Majoras Mask (2015g)
SSB Melee has a strength of 38.28.
Majoras Mask has a strength of 38.41.
Majoras Mask wins with 50.17% of the vote!

Okay, so maybe if Smash Ultimate is stronger than Melee in comparison to Breath of the Wild being stronger than Majora's Mask, maybe, just maybe, it can take this.

Then you remember that this is ZeldaFAQs and the LAW exists for the reason. There exists, among Nintendo fans, a hierarchy. It has been proven time and time and time again. Smash is high up on that hierarchy, and has been successful at resisting SFF in the past, but Zelda is king (queen?) and always will be. Smash Ultimate is a very well-regarded Smash game, but in a contest called GAME OF THE DECADE I can't see it overturning the hierarchy against a game as absurdly lauded as Breath of the Wild. It's far more likely that ZELDA flexes it's muscles and slaps down the pretender to the throne before waltzing into the finals like it owns the place - because it does.

Expected Result
Breath of the Wild > Some other Switch game
56 - 44

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KamikazePotato
03/13/20 11:49:19 PM
#268:


Semifinal Match 2
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt
Elder Scrolls: Skyrim

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6141-best-game-ever-day-23-round-2-the-witcher-3-vs-metal-gear
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6204-best-of-2015-game-of-the-year

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6153-best-game-ever-day-28-round-3-skyrim-vs-metroid-prime
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6166-best-game-ever-day-34-division-iv-final-skyrim-vs-super
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7069-whats-your-all-time-favorite-5-game

You know how I called Skyrim the apex of what western games are capable of? Well...

Skyrim (2015g) VS The Witcher 3 (2015g)
Skyrim has a strength of 34.93.
The Witcher 3 has a strength of 27.56.
Skyrim wins with 60.55% of the vote!

That is quite a lot of ground to make up. I actually had Witcher 3 in the finals as my sexy upset pick before I reviewed 2015's results again and man. You really have to go all-in on Witcher boosting to high heaven and Skyrim getting some Bethesda backlash. Is that possible? Yeah. Just...not likely. I do think Witcher closes the gap considerably, but I can no longer comfortably pull the trigger on it. Skyrim was simply too strong. Maybe if some outside reddit interferes (Witcher fans are the type to be foaming at the mouth to prove their WRPG superiority), but just based on GameFAQs I think the upset is a little out of reach.

Expected Result
Skyrim > Witcher 3
53 - 47

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KamikazePotato
03/13/20 11:51:30 PM
#269:


Finals
Zelda: Breath of the Wild
Elder Scrolls: Skyrim

Wind Waker (2015g) VS Skyrim (2015g)
Wind Waker has a strength of 37.54.
Skyrim has a strength of 34.93.
Wind Waker wins with 53.48% of the vote!

Expected Result
Breath of the Wild > Skyrim
56 - 44

Don't give me that look. You got your one BotW writeup with actual words in it. Here's my summary:

Link. Comes. To. Town.

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Team Rocket Elite
03/14/20 12:10:32 AM
#270:


Skyrim was crazy strong in 2015. I sort of wish it got a shot at SMO or SSBU. I don't think Witcher 3 will be strong enough to challenge Skyrim without a rally and rallied Witcher 3 likely gets past BotW as well.
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Advokaiser
03/14/20 1:52:11 AM
#271:


Team Rocket Elite posted...
Skyrim was crazy strong in 2015.

I actually disagree. Skyrim was strong, but it could've had more convincing results than the ones it had. Crazy strong for a Western game? Definitely, but not as strong as other elite games.

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LeonhartFour
03/14/20 2:29:02 AM
#272:


Skyrim was also underperforming almost every round due to Undertale rally spillover.

And it's stronger than anything we've seen in this contest by a good bit (since we haven't actually seen Breath of the Wild yet).

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Safer_777
03/14/20 6:03:28 AM
#273:


But is Skyrim still discussed? The game is almost 9 years old by this time and a ton of other open world games have come out. I know it has been ported to almost every console that exists but still. Plus netflix boost for Witcher?

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ZeldaTPLink
03/14/20 6:21:44 AM
#274:


I'm not sure about gamefaqs, but the internet went absolutely bananas about Skyrim when it first came out. It was only comparable to BotW hype.

What worries me is that in the actual match, people will look at the two games and decide Witcher is a better version of the same genre. Because I think it is?

Rallies also worry me, becaise while gameFAQs is fairly imprevious to rallies, you don't need a very huge one to clear this gap, and Witcher is in a prime position to pull this off, being in the semi-finals with enough time to get it going.

Yet Skyrim winning feels more right. It is the game that launched the open world craze. It might be the most influential game of the decade.

I had Skyrim in the bracket, then I changed to Witcher. I'm still not sure. I have enough upsets in the rest of the bracket already, so I just need this one to be right. Cuz losing those 32 points is critical. But neither pick feels sufficiently safe.
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ZeldaTPLink
03/14/20 7:26:35 AM
#275:


I just realized either mine or KP's bracket are going to kill each other in Division 4 finals
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swirIdude
03/14/20 9:18:35 AM
#276:


To this day, there are still plenty of Skyrim memes made and shared. No one has forgotten Skyrim.

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KamikazePotato
03/14/20 11:23:23 AM
#277:


Up

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Kotetsu534
03/14/20 3:43:16 PM
#278:


You really helped me with a lot of 1-pointers (and a 2-pointer). I had no idea games like Celeste and Cuphead apparently have some strength, so thanks! Back in 2010 I had probably beaten more than half the bracket and was familiar with almost every game, this time every third game got a "?" from me. Life's moved on.

I have a feeling something weird is going to happen. BOTW will win of course, but I can see something unexpected like God of War or Fire Emblem somehow making the SFs, or Skyrim weakening a fair bit since 2015 and dropping out early to Pokemon. Still, I got burned a decade ago putting faith in GSC so I ain't doing the same today.

And I'm rolling God of War > Witcher 3. 45% on Smash in a GOTY is a better eye test (IMO) than losing to MGS2, and I don't really buy this site's audience is going to be impacted much by the TV series or whatever.

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LeonhartFour
03/14/20 3:44:36 PM
#279:


Yeah, I'm honestly considering switching to GoW > Witcher 3 since it's such an underdog pick here for a game that's going to have legit strength based on everything we've seen from it. I feel like that's a good pick to separate yourself if you believe it has a real shot at winning.

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Big Bob
03/14/20 4:43:17 PM
#280:


I'm banking on Skyrim falling HARD ever since Bethesda messed up Fallout 76. The company just doesn't have the pedigree it used to.

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_SecretSquirrel
03/14/20 6:30:35 PM
#281:


LeonhartFour posted...
Yeah, I'm honestly considering switching to GoW > Witcher 3 since it's such an underdog pick here for a game that's going to have legit strength based on everything we've seen from it. I feel like that's a good pick to separate yourself if you believe it has a real shot at winning.
I had that in my first impression bracket, and I might consider it again before lockdown.

Bear in mind I filed out that bracket while suffering from an allergic reaction, so I've thought better of a ton of literal pain picks, but my impulses could be right about that one.

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KamikazePotato
03/14/20 7:09:30 PM
#282:


I'm feeling less confident in Odyssey as the days go on but without that my bracket is so damn cookie cutter

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Mac Arrowny
03/14/20 7:50:11 PM
#283:


I would've really loved to see Odyssey in the bottom half. Odyssey vs. Skyrim would've been the most debated match of the contest!
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Team Rocket Elite
03/14/20 7:54:22 PM
#284:


I would have liked to have seen a bit more faith in Skyrim and let it take a crack at some of the higher end (not BotW) Nintendo games. I don't think even SSBU was completely out of reach.
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LeonhartFour
03/14/20 7:55:45 PM
#285:


Mac Arrowny posted...
I would've really loved to see Odyssey in the bottom half. Odyssey vs. Skyrim would've been the most debated match of the contest!

but only because we constantly overrate Mario here!

Skyrim would beat it pretty comfortably

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shane15
03/14/20 8:29:19 PM
#286:


There aren't that many big picks you can make in this bracket. Think the biggest one i have and will probably stick with is TLOU>Dark Souls.

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LeonhartFour
03/14/20 8:34:23 PM
#287:


Well, I'm sure there will be some surprises that will catch most of us off guard. It's just hard to see them yet!

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OrangeCrush980
03/14/20 8:50:40 PM
#288:


I think pretty much every Division 5-8 match from Rounds 4-6 could go either way. Skyrim > Witcher 3 in the end is the safe pick but I think weird stuff could happen on the way. Dark Souls vs. The Last of Us is especially a coinflip; I'm going with The Last of Us but not with a great deal of confidence.

Division 4 is also a mess of course, and a few of the round 1 matches are tough to call (mainly Halo vs. Life is Strange)

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Dabrikishaw15
03/15/20 1:13:02 PM
#289:


I've never read one of these topics before. Will be interesting to see how it goes from here.

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KamikazePotato
03/15/20 5:50:07 PM
#290:


Dabrikishaw15 posted...
I've never read one of these topics before. Will be interesting to see how it goes from here.
Based on the outcomes of previous topics, I'm pretty good with numbers but bad at predicting the big overarching changes that happen behind-the-scenes between contests.

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NowItsAngeTime
03/15/20 10:20:49 PM
#291:


KamikazePotato posted...
Based on the outcomes of previous topics, I'm pretty good with numbers but bad at predicting the big overarching changes that happen behind-the-scenes between contests

From what I see having a mix of knowledge of stats of previous polls, plus knowing what the general gaming opinions/trends change to over time in the hardcore game scene, and then little bits of randomness like potential rallies/SFF/coin flip close matches is what you need to do well in a contest

Going purely off one or two factors may have you do well but not really well

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shane15
03/16/20 5:38:46 AM
#292:


NowItsAngeTime posted...
From what I see having a mix of knowledge of stats of previous polls, plus knowing what the general gaming opinions/trends change to over time in the hardcore game scene, and then little bits of randomness like potential rallies/SFF/coin flip close matches is what you need to do well in a contest

Going purely off one or two factors may have you do well but not really well


Exactly this. You need to find the perfect balance when it comes to these contests.

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Big Bob
03/16/20 9:07:35 AM
#293:


This poll is a hell of a lot more ominous than it would be any other year.

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Raka_Putra
03/17/20 11:07:48 AM
#294:


Thanks for making the topic, it's been fun following this.

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Advokaiser
03/20/20 11:51:29 AM
#295:


Bump

I have to take some final notes on this.

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KamikazePotato
03/21/20 3:35:54 AM
#296:


Glad people enjoyed the topic*. I basically write these for myself, but it's always nice to know you're not yelling into a void.

*I take no responsibility for any points lost in your bracket as a result of following this topic.

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Mr Lasastryke
03/21/20 8:50:20 AM
#297:


oh yeah, good topic!

i feel like back in the day we had a lot more of these pre-contest analysis topics. probably because there was a lot more contest hype back then.

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abdou
03/21/20 10:24:19 AM
#298:


I think people were really looking forward to a GOTD2, because the first game of the decade contest was pretty good

but things have dragged for waaaay too long. It took so long for nominations and brackets and now couple of delays...hard to keep the hype up

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Leonhart4
03/21/20 11:15:52 AM
#299:


Mr Lasastryke posted...
oh yeah, good topic!

i feel like back in the day we had a lot more of these pre-contest analysis topics. probably because there was a lot more contest hype back then.

We also had more users in general, but KP, transience, and I have been contest analysis stalwarts for a long time!

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Mr Lasastryke
03/21/20 11:17:54 AM
#300:


yeah, i read your topic and transience's topic too. all good stuff.

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Advokaiser
03/23/20 5:15:24 PM
#301:


Last bump.

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Advokaiser
03/23/20 7:18:57 PM
#302:


Everything that I needed to know is now known.

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