Board 8 > In-Depth Contest Analysis (2020 Version)

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ZeldaTPLink
03/05/20 8:57:12 AM
#152:


Cracked.com did a pretty hilarious telling of what happened in FF14

The game was an accidental parody of its own genre. Every system was so incomplete, broken, or boring that the only reason to keep playing was to keep increasing your level. Sitting at a calculator typing "+1" would have provided exactly the same gameplay experience with far fewer crashes. Within three months, the game's producer and director had been publicly booted from the project, with producer Hiromichi Tanaka claiming full public responsibility for the failure. The only reason they didn't livestream themselves committing seppuku is that it's impossible to reverse a Final Fantasy sword without at least three cargo cranes and warning nearby aircraft.

Square Enix tried to fix the game for two full years. They extended the trial period twice, begging people to play for free. Entire consoles were abandoned, because releasing new versions of the game would be like releasing fresh shits in the dock of your public obscenity trial. The only reason they didn't abandon it entirely was that the game had done potentially terminal damage to the brand. This launch achieved what over a dozen dragons and angry gods couldn't, threatening to make this the actual Final Fantasy. Square Enix finally surrendered with a final update that crashed the moon into the virtual world, releasing the Primal Dragon Bahamut, thereby triggering the Seventh Umbral Calamity.

Which was pretty much what was happening to their reputation. They went back to start making the game all over again with an entirely new team and the president of Square Enix pledging to take personal responsibility. Finally, in August 2013, they released Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn, aka FF14: We're Really Really Really Sorry. The game's plot was almost a direct representation of the brand, with players working to rebuild the world after the utter devastation wrought by the previous title.

https://www.cracked.com/blog/the-6-worst-video-game-launch-disasters/

Though this was written before the feel-good story that was mentioned here.
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Lightning Strikes
03/05/20 9:05:06 AM
#153:


XIV actually did (temporarily) kill its series in original release. It was a disaster.

Thats not what is competing though, its A Realm Reborn, the rebooted version. That will be s positive connotation. Additionally, this is basically a full-blown Final Fantasy game that just happens to be an MMO. So that is unlikely to be hel agsinst it. I think there is a good chance that this is the strongest FF game in the bracket, though I also dont think FFXV still beats Uncharted 4.

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abdou
03/05/20 9:27:56 AM
#154:


The only thing I want from XIV is a single-player only version, to enjoy the purportedly excellent story without doing the MMO stuff..


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KanzarisKelshen
03/05/20 10:52:27 AM
#155:


FFDragon posted...
Didn't they have to literally destroy the entire world and reboot it because it sucked so bad?

I don't disagree that it may be good now, but it was a long time getting there.

Yes, they had to do a whole mega reboot to redeem it, but that's very much not the same game that got noms to make it into GotD now. To give an idea of how far it's come...it was so successful Naoki Yoshida, the Director and Producer (he does both things) of XIV is part of Squeenix's top decisionmakers circle now and he's slated to headline the next mainline Final Fantasy, because they need something that works and comes out on time after the embarrassment of FFXV and he has a reputation for raising the dead. It was so successful that at PAX, the head writer of Shadowbringers got this reaction:

https://clips.twitch.tv/BlindingWrongElkBCouch

Like...GameFAQS might hate it. I don't know. But I really have to emphasize XIV is not WoW in any way that matters.

abdou posted...
The only thing I want from XIV is a single-player only version, to enjoy the purportedly excellent story without doing the MMO stuff..

It is effectively a partial SP game these days. They implemented a play-with-AI system for the latest expac's dungeons and are looking at backporting it to the previous releases.

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KanzarisKelshen
03/05/20 10:59:32 AM
#156:


SwiftyDC posted...
In a poll that had half million voters, it getting Top 5 had me scratching my head at first but all my friends who play it - love it, so don't want to judge it without playing it myself. They keep telling me it's villain is one of the best (Emet).

Also, unrelated to my points about contest strength but yes, the main villain of Shadowbringers is very easily the greatest villain of any FF. The two best ones before that are Kefka and Sephiroth IMO, and while I think this bad guy wouldn't be worth anything in a contest (utterly unphotogenic, looks like a real person instead of a monster clown or an anime prettyboy), he's won tremendous acclaim for his depth and coolness.

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AxemRedRanger
03/05/20 11:03:33 AM
#157:


uh KP

you had Mario Kart 8 beating Uncharted 4 in Round 1

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Leonhart4
03/05/20 11:08:43 AM
#158:


AxemRedRanger posted...
uh KP

you had Mario Kart 8 beating Uncharted 4 in Round 1

We're allowed to change our minds in the middle of an analysis!

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Safer_777
03/05/20 11:18:48 AM
#159:


I have some different results from you already. Eh.

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MetalmindStats
03/05/20 5:19:08 PM
#160:


Leonhart4 posted...
Well, even World of Warcraft wouldn't lose to just anything. It just looked bad winning.
WoW jobbed to Paper Mario in GotD, and Chrono Cross in 2015. Neither of those are that surprising in retrospect, but they're still matches it had no business losing.

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SwiftyDC
03/05/20 5:28:50 PM
#161:


Amount of players you have =/= Contest strength

Unless the internet wanted to troll GameFAQs.

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dilateDChemist
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MetalmindStats
03/05/20 5:34:08 PM
#162:


You can be expected to lose a match, be the smart pick to lose a match, and still have no business losing that match. See also: Grand Theft Auto V vs. Super Mario RPG, among other examples.

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KamikazePotato
03/05/20 5:42:41 PM
#163:


Leonhart4 posted...
We're allowed to change our minds in the middle of an analysis!
Actually I just forgot to change to MK8 in my bracket (originally had Uncharted) so oops. I still think MK8 wins in Round 1. Also...

Match # Whatever
FF14 vs. Mario Kart 8

If you think FF14 is strong enough to beat Uncharted 4, you should probably take it here as well. That level of strength mean it's being treated with the level of respect of an actual Final Fantasy game and not just an MMO with FF trappings.

But I think Mario Kart 8 is going to be a bit stronger than UC4, and I picked UC4 to beat FF14 in my last writeup, so...

Expected Result
Mario Kart 8 > FF14
55 - 45

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SwiftyDC
03/05/20 5:43:55 PM
#164:


Just got to know your audience. This site loves jRPGs and SMRPG is a classic.

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dilateDChemist
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MetalmindStats
03/05/20 5:50:07 PM
#165:


SwiftyDC posted...
Just got to know your audience. This site loves jRPGs and SMRPG is a classic.
You're still not paying attention to what I'm actually saying. Heck, I remember "predicting" (in quotes because I didn't actually have an account to make a bracket) that Super Mario RPG would win there and reach Round 4. What I'm saying is: yes, Mario RPG was the smart pick and probable winner both there and in Round 3. That doesn't mean it's not embarrassing for GTAV, a more popular and better-selling game overall by some ridiculous factor, to job against it, and doubly so for San Andreas and WoW to job against Chrono Cross of all things.

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Leonhart4
03/05/20 6:09:56 PM
#166:


MetalmindStats posted...
WoW jobbed to Paper Mario in GotD, and Chrono Cross in 2015. Neither of those are that surprising in retrospect, but they're still matches it had no business losing.

They're popular and well known JRPGs. Nothing wrong with that. Losing to the original Animal Crossing would've been a match it had no business losing.

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SwiftyDC
03/05/20 6:13:56 PM
#167:


MetalmindStats posted...
You're still not paying attention to what I'm actually saying. Heck, I remember "predicting" (in quotes because I didn't actually have an account to make a bracket) that Super Mario RPG would win there and reach Round 4. What I'm saying is: yes, Mario RPG was the smart pick and probable winner both there and in Round 3. That doesn't mean it's not embarrassing for GTAV, a more popular and better-selling game overall by some ridiculous factor, to job against it, and doubly so for San Andreas and WoW to job against Chrono Cross of all things.

I don't know, man. I see what you're saying and on any site GTA would probably put a better showing. When San Andreas lost to Golden Sun back in the day is when I stopped putting faith in the GTA series. If Golden Sun can top, easily one the best GTAs, then any beloved jRPG can beat any GTA.

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dilateDChemist
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SwiftyDC
03/05/20 6:22:04 PM
#168:


I may have talked myself into picking P4G > GTAV, if it gets passed RDR.

But I still have this gut-feeling that RDR is more liked than GTA.

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dilateDChemist
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MetalmindStats
03/05/20 6:30:24 PM
#169:


SwiftyDC posted...
I don't know, man. I see what you're saying and on any site GTA would probably put a better showing. When San Andreas lost to Golden Sun back in the day is when I stopped putting faith in the GTA series. If Golden Sun can top, easily one the best GTAs, then any beloved jRPG can beat any GTA.
I guess I'll just have to agree to disagree with you. You seem to think that it's inherently not embarrassing for a game to lose a match it's favored to lose, whereas I think it can be, depending on the margin and the games in question.

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Leonhart4
03/05/20 6:42:03 PM
#170:


San Andreas losing to Golden Sun is embarrassing. WoW losing to a popular JRPG isn't.

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SwiftyDC
03/05/20 6:42:49 PM
#171:


MetalmindStats posted...
I guess I'll just have to agree to disagree with you. You seem to think that it's inherently not embarrassing for a game to lose a match it's favored to lose, whereas I think it can be, depending on the games in question.

Oh, I think I read your previous comment wrong, my bad.

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dilateDChemist
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KamikazePotato
03/05/20 6:43:08 PM
#172:


Leonhart4 posted...
San Andreas losing to Golden Sun is embarrassing. WoW losing to a popular JRPG isn't.
This may be difficult for B8 to believe, but Golden Sun is a popular JRPG!

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Leonhart4
03/05/20 6:45:22 PM
#173:


KamikazePotato posted...
This may be difficult for B8 to believe, but Golden Sun is a popular JRPG!

Eh, it's popular here because we're the target demographic.

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xp1337
03/05/20 6:47:13 PM
#174:


KamikazePotato posted...
This may be difficult for B8 to believe, but Golden Sun is a popular JRPG!
I think that was semi-true way back in the day, it isn't now. However, Golden Sun v GTA:SA was literally the day that Dark Dawn was released so not only would the "series saved!" hype be at full power... no one had time to digest Dark Dawn and be disappointed yet. >_>

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MetalmindStats
03/05/20 6:50:02 PM
#175:


Leonhart4 posted...
Eh, it's popular here because we're the target demographic.
I'd say Golden Sun is about as popular as Paper Mario and Chrono Cross overall; the difference is that Paper Mario is a Mario game, so it's stronger than those other two.

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Leonhart4
03/05/20 6:52:57 PM
#176:


MetalmindStats posted...
I'd say Golden Sun is about as popular as Paper Mario and Chrono Cross overall; the difference is that Paper Mario is a Mario game, so it's stronger than those other two.

Being a Mario game doesn't automatically make you strong. We saw several Mario games underperform in GotD, so I don't buy that it won solely because of the name. Paper Mario is legitimately loved.

And Chrono Cross was released during Square's apex. Chrono Trigger purists hate it, but you're selling it short.

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KamikazePotato
03/05/20 6:56:32 PM
#177:


Leonhart4 posted...
Eh, it's popular here because we're the target demographic.
Golden Sun is really popular among casual RPG fans. I recently quizzed my friends group about their Top 5 games and two of them (who play a good number and variety of games) listed Golden Sun. The games are super undervalued here on B8 because the board simply doesn't like them, but among general Nintendo fans they have big fanbases.

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AxemRedRanger
03/05/20 7:04:13 PM
#178:


among 2000s jrpgs and excluding 10s rereleases, golden sun basically had the best western sales of anything outside of final fantasy, kingdom hearts, Pokemon, and Mario. Dragon quest viii might have beaten it there too, with an outside shot at legend of dragoon thanks to Sony marketing it as their ffvii-killer in era where that was the game to beat.

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Leonhart4
03/05/20 7:16:10 PM
#179:


Yeah, I probably underrate Golden Sun somewhat. I keep forgetting that there's a loud contingent who isn't happy that Isaac still isn't playable in Smash.

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Team Rocket Elite
03/05/20 7:38:58 PM
#180:


I've been drinking the GameFAQs Kool-aid so long that SMRPG vs GTA5 game me a large amount of respect for GTA5. That result was almost on par with Oblivion!
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Leonhart4
03/05/20 7:41:02 PM
#181:


Team Rocket Elite posted...
I've been drinking the GameFAQs Kool-aid so long that SMRPG vs GTA5 game me a large amount of respect for GTA5. That result was almost on par with Oblivion!

It's partially why I've got it going to the division finals!

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MrFirestar
03/05/20 8:29:20 PM
#182:


All I know is that I'm voting for Undertale to win because they're planning to rally around it again.

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SwiftyDC
03/05/20 8:30:12 PM
#183:


MrFirestar posted...
All I know is that I'm voting for Undertale to win because they're planning to rally around it again.

Nani? Where at?

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dilateDChemist
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MrFirestar
03/05/20 8:36:15 PM
#184:


SwiftyDC posted...
Nani? Where at?

I'm in several Discord groups that are discussing this contest. That is the plan, at least.

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KamikazePotato
03/08/20 3:33:36 AM
#185:


Bump to remind myself to continue this tomorrow.

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KamikazePotato
03/09/20 12:18:51 AM
#186:


Division 1, Round 3, Match 1
Zelda: Breath of the Wild
Final Fantasy XV

I should be able to start doing actual writeups for BotW in...maybe two rounds. Not yet though! FF vs. Zelda hasn't been close in a while and it's especially not going to be close here. People might actually consider it a disappointment if BotW doesn't clear 70% here.

Expected Result
BotW > FF15
70 - 30

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Division 1, Round 3, Match 2
Monster Hunter: World / Sekiro / Bravely Default / Whatever
Dragon Quest XI

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5750-best-of-2014-game-of-the-year

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7462-best-of-2018-playstation-4
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7838-best-of-2019-game-of-the-year

This match is actually fairly easy, because DQ11 faced two of the possible entrants in GotY polls. Monster Hunter got slapped and Sekiro barely placed ahead of DQ11's...Switch port. Not the best look for either of them! I think this match is very clear-cut unless you're going all-in on a C-tier Square 3DS RPG that was popular for 5 minutes. DQ11 has looked better and DQ11 has a better pedigree - I would expect DQ8 to advance comfortably and DQ11 might be stronger. It's not outside the realm of possibility for DQ11 to lose but it would be dropping the ball in a big way if it does.

Expected Result
DQ11 > Whatever
56 - 44

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KamikazePotato
03/09/20 12:39:32 AM
#187:


Division 2, Round 3, Match 1
Mass Effect 2
Horizon Zero Dawn

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4218-best-of-2010-game-of-the-year-final
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6146-best-game-ever-day-24-round-2-starcraft-vs-mass-effect-2
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6162-best-game-ever-day-32-round-3-metal-gear-solid-3-vs-mass
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7514-whats-your-all-time-favorite-2-game

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6945-best-of-2017-playstation-4

This match shouldn't be in contention, with 'shouldn't' being the key word here. Mass Effect 2, by all rights, should breeze past this. It's one of the most beloved games of this generation. It won GotY 2010, did very well in the 'favorite 2 game' poll, and heck it even got a 1 Seed. Horizon Zero Dawn is well-regarded but not on that level.

And yet, I can't get over how badly it did in the 2015 Contest. For all the strength it showed in polls, when it came time to thrown down in an actual contest, ME2 simply did not live up to expectations. Starcraft is a strong game but its heydey is long gone, and Mass Effect 2 needed off-site support to seal the deal. Then MGS3 came it just got slaughtered. Look at this silliness:

Mass Effect (2015g) VS Mass Effect 2 (2015g)
Mass Effect has a strength of 27.93.
Mass Effect 2 has a strength of 25.58.
Mass Effect wins with 54.21% of the vote!

Does anyone take ME1 in a 1 v 1 matchup? No, but it's a testament to how hugely ME2 underperformed that the stats shook out this way in the first place. Then you've got this:

Mass Effect 2 (2015g) VS Persona 4 (2015g)
Mass Effect 2 has a strength of 25.58.
Persona 4 has a strength of 25.16.
Mass Effect 2 wins with 50.82% of the vote!

For the record, I think Persona 5 is going to be clearly stronger than Persona 4, and Horizon held up well against Persona 5 (and Breath of the Wild for that matter). If I really wanted to, I could finagle the numbers so that Horizon gets very close to ME2 just based on stats alone. Then you factor in Bioware killing the series, which caused Commander Shepard to almost lose to King Freaking K Rool:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7299-division-8-round-1-shepard-vs-k-rool

I'm not taking the upset. It goes too far against conventional wisdom, and it's far more likely that ME2 just got SFFd by MGS3 in a weird way or whatever. It happens. That recent 'favorite 2 game' poll is also very promising, as it came out well after Andromeda damaged the series. But if the UPSET does happen, I won't be entirely surprised. ME2 has to prove itself before I can give it the benefit of the doubt again.

Expected Result
ME2 > Horizon Zero Dawn
55 - 45

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Division 2, Round 3, Match 2
Resident Evil 2
Bloodborne / Fire Emblem Awakening

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7840-best-of-2019-game-of-the-year-final-vote

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6097-best-game-ever-day-12-bloodborne-vs-final-fantasy-xii
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6133-best-game-ever-day-21-round-2-dk-country-2-vs-fire-emblem

Look, I love Bloodborne. I really love Bloodborne. But even if I give it the benefit of the doubt and say it's increased in strength, that still only lets me pick it over Awakening in what I consider to be a minor fanboy upset pick where the margin of victory will be slim. I think Bloodborne/Awakening is going to be close regardless of which game wins.

Resident Evil 2 didn't struggle with Fire Emblem: Three Houses, and Three Houses is going to be the strongest FE game. You could argue that Awakening will be stronger but I'm just not seeing it - Three Houses has gotten more press than any other game in the series, had a really strong fan reception, has already sold more than Awakening, and simply put is a 'bigger deal'. Even if you assume Awakening is stronger for whatever reason, there's still a good bit of room in that GotY for Awakening to be stronger than Three Houses and for RE2 to still come out on top. Picking RE2 to lose here isn't the WORST upset pick but it's not a good one either; I don't expect it to have a problem.

Expected Result
Resident Evil 2 > Bloodborne / FE Awakening
55 - 45

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KamikazePotato
03/09/20 12:46:02 AM
#188:


Division 3, Round 3, Match 1
SSB Ultimate
Marvel's Spider-Man

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7471-best-of-2018-game-of-the-year

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7462-best-of-2018-playstation-4

Smash Ultimate beat God of War with room to spare. God of War beat Spider-Man with a LOT of room to spare. Yeah.

Expected Result
SSB Ultimate > Spider-Man
67 - 33

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Division 3, Round 3, Match 2
Undertale
Super Mario Odyssey

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6204-best-of-2015-game-of-the-year

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6946-best-of-2017-switch

Undertale got doubled by Witcher 3. Odyssey got doubled by BotW, while being SFFd. One of those performances is stronger than the other.

Expected Result
Super Mario Odyssey > Smash Ultimate
67 - 33

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AxemRedRanger
03/09/20 1:17:31 AM
#189:




Expected Result
Super Mario Odyssey > Smash Ultimate
67 - 33
there goes bracket

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KamikazePotato
03/09/20 1:17:59 AM
#190:


You saw nothing.

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KamikazePotato
03/09/20 1:28:05 AM
#191:


Division 3, Round 4, Match 1
Grand Theft Auto V
Persona 4 Golden / Red Dead Redemption

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6139-best-game-ever-day-23-round-2-grand-theft-auto-v-vs-super
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7069-whats-your-all-time-favorite-5-game

Grand Theft Auto 5 (2015g) VS Red Dead Redemption (2015g)
Grand Theft Auto 5 has a strength of 29.29.
Red Dead Redemption has a strength of 24.60.
Grand Theft Auto 5 wins with 58.01% of the vote!

Persona 4 (2015g) VS Grand Theft Auto 5 (2015g)
Persona 4 has a strength of 25.16.
Grand Theft Auto 5 has a strength of 29.29.
Grand Theft Auto 5 wins with 57.05% of the vote!

Well, that simplifies things. We can move on to the next match, right?

If you asked that question, you've clearly never experienced GTA on this site. I don't think any series has given us as many weird, headache-inducing experiences. The series is so popular everywhere else that it always FEELS like it should do well, and its entrants are always put in winnable matches, but it also drops the ball all. The. Time. GTA overperforms against stronger competition and underperforms against entrants near its level. Look at this:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3728-best-of-2009-game-of-the-00s

San Andreas has no business doing so well in that poll. It would easily lose to every other game in it. San Andreas lost to Golden Sun and placed last against ToS/Oblivion/God of War. GTA4 lost to Pokemon Ruby. GTA the series lost to Warcraft the series. Niko and CJ embarassed themselves. Vice City...actually has a few clutch wins, somehow, but that's about it.

So to start with, let's lop about 3% off those projected results. GTA5 was facing a clearly stronger opponent and likely benefited in the final stats from Mario RPG catching a bit of a bandwagon. I also don't think it's going to be as big a deal as it was when back in 2015, when everyone was going nuts over it. It's still selling consistently but GameFAQs has a short-lived memory for western games without strong narratives.

...now, time to defeat my own argument.

Persona 4 (2015g) VS GTA: Vice City (2015g)
Persona 4 has a strength of 25.16.
GTA: Vice City has a strength of 25.64.
GTA: Vice City wins with 50.94% of the vote!

GTA5 is going to be the strongest GTA game. I would be shocked if it wasn't. GameFAQs can get stuck in the past often but GTA5 was such a landmark in gaming that even we're going to respect it to a degree. It's the best-selling game of all time or close to it. I would be very surprised if GTA5 wasn't clearly a cut above the rest of the games in its series.

Even with everything I said before, GTA5 starts out so far ahead of Persona 4/RDR in the stats that it has a lot of room to underperform and still win. Neither of those games would have matched that performance on SMRPG, so if the strength GTA5 showed in that match is even remotely accurate then it doesn't fall prey to the 1 Seed upset. It won't lose. It shouldn't lose.

It still might, though. Because it's GTA. You shouldn't feel good about this match no matter who you pick.

Expected Result
GTAV > Persona 4 / RDR
53 - 47

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Division 3, Round 4, Match 2
Xenoblade Chronicles
Fire Emblem: Three Houses

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6087-best-game-ever-day-10-xenoblade-chronicles-vs-donkey-kong

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7838-best-of-2019-game-of-the-year
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7840-best-of-2019-game-of-the-year-final-vote

Fire Emblem: Awakening (2015g) VS Xenoblade Chronicles (2015g)
Fire Emblem: Awakening has a strength of 22.89.
Xenoblade Chronicles has a strength of 23.73.
Xenoblade Chronicles wins with 51.77% of the vote!

That result is very accurate, by the way. They both faced the same opponent (DKC2).

Xenoblade/Three Houses is a match where you have to make some educated guesses. How much stronger than Awakening will Three Houses be? How much stronger will Xenoblade have gotten, if at all? If this were post-remake-release I easily take Xenoblade, but alas.

Arguments can be made for either game here, but my take is this: Xenoblade won't be much stronger and Three Houses would easily beat that projected result against Awakening. Xenoblade may have gotten a sequel, and the series is more established than it was in 2010, but a series' growth doesn't always translate to increased strength across the board (the rise of the Persona series did absolutely nothing for Persona 3, for example) and Xenoblade 2 is a few years old regardless. In contrast, Fire Emblem has recency factor, better sales, better results, and...well, better everything. It's probably a little higher on the Nintendo hierarchy too. Xenoblade has a bit of a better reception but that's about it.

Xenoblade could easily take this, and I would love if it did, but the smart money is on Three Houses. Division 4 is kind of a mess.

Expected Result
Three Houses > Xenoblade
52 - 48

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MetalmindStats
03/09/20 1:39:41 AM
#192:


KamikazePotato posted...
(the rise of the Persona series did absolutely nothing for Persona 3, for example)
Persona 3 went from almost losing to Civilization IV to kind of almost beating Dragon Quest VIII.

Also, The Show has convinced me that Grand Theft Auto V's Round 3 match will be a very different and far less stats-dependent scenario if Red Dead Redemption makes it there. I guess you're looking at it through the lens of Persona 4 Golden making it there and just slashing Red Dead Redemption for inclusivity, though.

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handsomeboy2012
03/09/20 2:15:45 AM
#193:


What did the show say about the match? I dont have time to listen to it and had trouble with that part of the bracket
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LeonhartFour
03/09/20 2:34:31 AM
#194:


MetalmindStats posted...
Persona 3 went from almost losing to Civilization IV to kind of almost beating Dragon Quest VIII.

Except it was already pretty close to it in the GOTD X-Stats. It came pretty close to accurately predicting the percentage of the match, even!

X-Stats projected DQVIII to win with 54.27%

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6052-best-game-ever-day-1-dragon-quest-viii-vs-persona-3

X-Stats just had dyslexia is all

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Ranticoot
03/09/20 2:41:21 AM
#195:


handsomeboy2012 posted...
What did the show say about the match? I dont have time to listen to it and had trouble with that part of the bracket
The Show brought up the idea that people that people would vote for RDR to spite GTA5, because RDR was from the "good ol' days" from when Rockstar actually made video games, while GTA5 has more or less singlehandedly made Rockstar stop making games. Something like that anyway.

I can kind of believe in that idea. I'm going through with Cuphead > GTA5 anyway though (mostly out of bias, though I do think Cuphead has a real shot; I don't expect who wins between them to win in Round 3 though)

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MetalmindStats
03/09/20 3:07:03 AM
#196:


LeonhartFour posted...
Except it was already pretty close to it in the GOTD X-Stats. It came pretty close to accurately predicting the percentage of the match, even!
Eh, there's only so much I'm willing to trust that considering Chrono Cross was the game to soundly beat Dragon Quest VIII in Round 1 of the first GotD. I personally think Chrono Cross scored a fair margin of SFF there, but I suppose there's an argument to be had that it's legit and Persona 3 is still the same fodder it was back then.

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LeonhartFour
03/09/20 3:09:20 AM
#197:


Eh, Chrono Cross proved its strength was pretty legit in 2015! I didn't find that result odd at all. There's no need to call for SFF just because two games from the same genre face each other!

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_SecretSquirrel
03/09/20 3:11:19 AM
#198:


Ranticoot posted...
The Show brought up the idea that people that people would vote for RDR to spite GTA5, because RDR was from the "good ol' days" from when Rockstar actually made video games, while GTA5 has more or less singlehandedly made Rockstar stop making games. Something like that anyway.
The one thing about this line of logic is that you have to hope that the contest goers see GTA V and not think of the single player campaign first. That's a bit tricky, because the online mode is actually its own game. It's listed seperately in the GameFAQs database with its own forums, and has separate logos and concept art. The only thing that really links them is that GTA Online is purchased with GTA V.

This isn't necessarily going to stop anyone from anti-voting GTA V due to Rockstar's rampant greed in the video game industry, but it may not occur to them until they've already voted, especially when things like match pictures depicting Michael, Trevor, and Franklin are going to influence which GTA V they actually think of.

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KamikazePotato
03/09/20 4:56:23 PM
#199:


Haven't gotten to that segment on The Show yet, but just from that summary I don't agree on their assessment of RDR/GTA5. I number of people that are upset with GTA5 for its effect on Rockstar's game output is probably pretty trivial on GameFAQs. We're fairly casual fans of big-name Western games. I think it's more likely GTA5 scores some weird hierarchy SFF than the opposite happening.

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Mac Arrowny
03/09/20 5:30:12 PM
#200:


KamikazePotato posted...

For the record, I think Persona 5 is going to be clearly stronger than Persona 4, and Horizon held up well against Persona 5 (and Breath of the Wild for that matter).


Where did it hold up well against BotW? I think this is the only poll they shared.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6730-five-months-in-to-2017-whats-your-pick-for-game-of-the-year
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KamikazePotato
03/09/20 9:55:20 PM
#202:


Division 5, Round 3, Match 1
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt
Super Mario Galaxy 2

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6141-best-game-ever-day-23-round-2-the-witcher-3-vs-metal-gear
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6204-best-of-2015-game-of-the-year

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4218-best-of-2010-game-of-the-year-final
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6064-best-game-ever-day-4-super-mario-galaxy-2-vs-mass-effect

The Witcher 3 (2015g) VS Mario Galaxy 2 (2015g)
The Witcher 3 has a strength of 27.56.
Mario Galaxy 2 has a strength of 27.47.
The Witcher 3 wins with 50.16% of the vote!

You might look at that result and be tempted to take SMG2. When in doubt, pick Nintendo over non-Nintendo, right? Ignore the fact that Galaxy 2 already lost a close one against Mass Effect 1. And that Mario Galaxy in general has always dropped the ball. It's still Nintendo in a close match!

Well, it's not going to be close. Witcher 3 has more reason to improve from 2015 than any other game in this contest. Since 2015, it's sold like three times as many total copies as it had, released on the Switch, got a Netflix show, and in general has become a cultural phenomenon. If I had to pick which potential Game of the Decade that gaming as a whole respects the most, Witcher 3 would be right near the top of the list. It's basically sucked up all the good will that other WRPG developers have been hemorrhaging recently; Bioware and Bethesda might be crapping the bed, but Witcher is still there for people, whispering sweet nothings in their ear and presenting fantastic DLC without microtransactions. Witcher 3 has every right to go big this contest.

In short, Witcher 3 dropping this to SMG2 would make it the biggest bomb of the contest. Could it happen? Yeah. If you feel like drinking Nintendo Koolaid, feel free (it works out more often than it should). It REALLY shouldn't happen here though.

Expected Result
Witcher 3 > SMG2
56 - 44

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Division 5, Round 3, Match 2
Fallout: New Vegas
God of War

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6105-best-game-ever-day-14-fallout-new-vegas-vs-bioshock-infinite
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6142-best-game-ever-day-23-round-2-fallout-new-vegas-vs-resident

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7471-best-of-2018-game-of-the-year
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7473-best-of-2018-game-of-the-year-final-final-vote

I love New Vegas, but this is as far as it goes.

Smash 4 (2015g) VS Fallout: New Vegas (2015g)
Smash 4 has a strength of 30.96.
Fallout: New Vegas has a strength of 27.79.
Smash 4 wins with 55.12% of the vote!

New Vegas is projected to do as well on Smash 4 as God of War did against Smash Ultimate. That's kiiind of all she wrote! And New Vegas has no X-factor going into this to help bridge the strength gap, what with Bethesda taking the Fallout series out back and beating it into submission. You would have to bank on God of War having fallen out of the public consciousness, and while that's always a risk with big AAA western games on GameFAQs, I don't think it applies here. It's too recent for that to have happened, and more importantly people still really seem to care about the game - having a truly compelling narrative will do that. This match won't be a blowout but I'd be surprised if it didn't up around:

Expected Result
God of War > New Vegas
54 - 46

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