Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 264: DNC's House of Mouse

(+) Yeah! (+)

Corrik7 posted...

This is the supposed leaked numbers. I doubt the truthfulness of these though.

https://twitter.com/WarsontheBrink/status/1224760304606859269?s=20

It has been reported this virus may have mutated to transmit easier human to human. And it has been reported that Asians may have more receptors in their lungs which make them more susceptible to the virus. Who knows.

aye, those sorts of leaks are common. i don't think i saw that one specifically but the suspected/infected matches up very well with the past two weeks. daily mail link i posted had 90,000, a few others around that time popped in 100k or 120k, so that rising to 150k isn't surprising. the split for actual infected is where i get a skeptical only because they literally can't tell. recovered number is alarmingly low and the death number is alarmingly high. so of the four... only the first seems consistent but i'm sure we'll get a lot more info over the next 2 weeks because more videos and reports keep coming out.

ultimately though that puts the estimates at the around 500~ china is saying and the 25,000 chinese social media is saying. so that's the two extremes.

there's a ton of wild stuff out there though. craziest was... i think thailand's parliament that saw a crazy conspiracy theory involving bill gates and soros or something? it all goes back to the bioweapon theory. the fact that HIV treatment seems doesn't help. ...and if wondering about that, certain HIV treatments seem to help with the coronavirus according to doctors in Thailand, though considering the videos their government's been forced to watch i don't know about that. more directly and importantly it was useful with SARS, which seems to be closer related and a lot more relevant. don't know why these bat diseases have that connection.

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Corrik7 posted...

The person to person transmission prior to symptoms is possible but the case that proved it has been debunked. People can reacquire the virus even after being recovered from it.

forgot to respond to this bit as there's a bit of tragic news on it. person to person i'm also in the "seems possible" camp, CDC seems to agree with that position and there was a husband/wife case just yesterday in California which might confirm our first proper instance here in the US.

the tragic part comes in the rumor that transmission can go person to animal and vice versa. people are killing their pets. that one i don't think has any proof, seems practically impossible, and is a definite sign of how bad the government's failing them considering two seconds of rational thought should go "what, no, that doesn't make sense" as opposed to thinking it's a good idea to kill the cat. it means the gap between what people are seeing and what's being reported is so big that they'd believe anything.

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ah, found it.
correction: it wasn't Thailand who saw the crazy video, it was the Philippine senate.

https://youtu.be/J2IKfBKjanI?t=7058

fucking WILD to see that in any government presentation. a few key facts - the bio facilities locations are true - spiral out of control to produce that. and then it got presented in front of a government body that makes laws. it of course got shot down immediately after in comedic fashion but this is a thing.

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Haha yeah. I saw a lot of rumors that the virus was man made.

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

As we both know, Trump and his advisors never disagree on anything.

Hannity is Trump and Trump is Hannity.

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oh yeah, uh... while i'm pretty fine accepting crazy numbers in china i'm still honestly not that worried about the virus outside of it and a couple poor places. it's spreading globally, it's honestly already hit the requirements to be classified as a pandemic, it's causing a major economic issue, it won't have any proper fixes for at least another 2-3 months, most likely more. but the rules of it seem pretty simple: if you get it, you're probably getting pneumonia, focus on treatment for that. fluids, steam/humidifiers, rest, fever reduction, etc. also be prepared for diarrhea as that seems to frequently occur, especially early on. get medical attention if possible. due to significantly better resources, especially much better access to clean water and painkillers/anti-inflammatory drugs, it should not result in high mortality anywhere else. as long as you've got the usual supplies for the flu season (nasal spray, painkillers, etc) it should be recoverable as you're gonna get a fever, coughing fits, diarrhea, and have issues breathing - exactly the same sort of symptoms and ultimately the same sort of treatments you'd give yourself.

if you're really worried about it you can stock up a little bit more than usual but otherwise the regular flu is still more deadly and more of an immediate concern. it's just china and third world countries that are fucked.

...oh, another recent rumor i heard was the idea that it can spread by flushing poop down a toilet as the pressure would release contagious vapors that last for 2-3 hours. it sounds ridiculous, though it's based off the fact that the virus does exist in feces and is a possible method of transmission.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-02/coronavirus-may-transmit-along-fecal-oral-route-xinhua-reports

another reason to never go ass to mouth.
kidding aside it's a new development of transmission which makes sense to a point. the flushing bit, i dunno about that, seems too out there. but dirty seats or stuff like people not washing their hands properly after pooping (death penalty crime imo)... possibly? more research needed as that was just 3 days ago.

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https://i.imgur.com/HSyClL3.jpg

Good stat!

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... doesn't that make Yang have like 3 white people.

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Can't wait for Biden to win SC by the most narrow of margins and people to claim it means he's still relevant lmao

WAIT
Pete outdid Warren on minority vote?!
LOL that's fucking incredible. it's not that she does amazing there but his history is so piss poor and she had numbers that weren't too far away, she broke 20k votes too, so there we go again proving who her base really is. he's making inroads.

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Reg posted...

Can't wait for Biden to win SC by the most narrow of margins and people to claim it means he's still relevant lmao

He will win by a lot there.

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this poll from a few days ago only has him up 5 points there

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/481071-poll-biden-leads-sanders-by-5-points-in-south-carolina%3famp

and that might get worse after people see how bad he did in Iowa
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We will see. The south is his bastion though as of now.

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biden is extremely lucky right now that iowa was fucked up, trump had his SOTU yesterday, and today trump gets acquitted.

iowa's collapse is buried underneath a ton of news. right now he's promising Nevada and SC so that's his focus.

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the Jonathan Pie character is a national treasure in the UK.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lvm3xeO1lA0

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I could be wrong, but I vaguely remember everyone knowing that buttigieg was expected to kill it in Iowa in particular

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ProTip: if youre engineering a virus for biological warfare, develop a cure alongside it
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Wanglicious posted...

biden is extremely lucky right now that iowa was fucked up, trump had his SOTU yesterday, and today trump gets acquitted.

iowa's collapse is buried underneath a ton of news. right now he's promising Nevada and SC so that's his focus.

"Lucky". Sure.

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Jakyl25 posted...

ProTip: if youre engineering a virus for biological warfare, develop a cure alongside it

Trade wars are easy to win.

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Jakyl25 posted...

ProTip: if youre engineering a virus for biological warfare, develop a cure alongside it

'would china really have safeguards so weak in one of their only two biolabs that it'd get out and infect the public first?'
'would china really be so dumb as to make a bioweapon but not have a cure for it?'

the only reason the conspiracy theory even works is because the answer to both of those is "yeah, it's china, that sounds about right." not that i buy it but i certainly can understand where the conspiracy's coming from; whether it's from the proximity and uniqueness of the labs, the research put into SARS, china's known history with working on bioweapons in said labs, and odd attributes to the virus like HIV treatment working. totally get how that conclusion gets reached. just think bat soup is a simpler and more likely answer since this virus is related to SARS and that one was ultimately found to be related to bats - bat droppings i believe was the 2017 conclusion. if it's their poop then it makes sense that a stronger, different form could exist within their bodies and it'd make sense as a biologic defense mechanism to save their species; if eating them releases a plague among other species you might as well say they're poisonous.

so it makes sense within nature, makes sense with its connection to SARS, and the reason HIV treatment works does actually work with HIV's history too. while the exact origins of that disease are unknown one aspect that does seem consistent is that its origins come from bushmeat, aka, meat from african wildlife. more specifically that means chimps, rats, snakes, and bats - exactly the same sort of place that things like SARS and the Coronavirus are believed to come from. if that past holds true then it makes perfect sense, we're dealing with evolutionary developments animals made to protect themselves and though it's manifested differently depending on region, the roots are similar enough that treatments for one would work on the other.

it checks out pretty well. don't know why, don't know how, but there's a very clear and consistent connection.
unless you're gonna believe HIV was made in a lab too. then i mean, sure, bioweapon.

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

https://twitter.com/therealoj32/status/1224752500198084608?s=21

OJ Simpson with some advice for everyone.

That'd be a great message coming from almost anyone else!

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oh hey, corrik, that chart you posted now has an article in taiwan news explaining more on the situation.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) As many experts question the veracity of China's statistics for the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, Tencent over the weekend seems to have inadvertently released what is potentially the actual number of infections and deaths, which were astronomically higher than official figures.

On late Saturday evening (Feb. 1), Tencent, on its webpage titled "Epidemic Situation Tracker", showed confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.

The number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300. Most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.

Moments later, Tencent updated the numbers to reflect the government's "official" numbers that day. Netizens noticed that Tencent has on at least three occasions posted extremely high numbers, only to quickly lower them to government-approved statistics.

Netizens also noticed that each time the screen with the large numbers appears, it shows a comparison with the previous day's data which demonstrates a "reasonable" incremental increase, much like comparisons of official numbers. This has led some netizens to speculate that Tencent has two sets of data, the real data and "processed" data.

Some are speculating that a coding problem could be causing the real "internal" data to accidentally appear. Others believe that someone behind the scenes is trying to leak the real numbers.

However, the "internal" data held by Beijing may not reflect the true extent of the epidemic. According to multiple sources in Wuhan, many coronavirus patients are unable to receive treatment and die outside of hospitals.

A severe shortage of test kits also leads to a lower number of diagnosed cases of infection and death. In addition, there have been many reports of doctors being ordered to list other forms of death instead of coronavirus to keep the death toll artificially low.

bolded part for emphasis as the fact that this is happening multiple times is suspicious as fuck. we also now know that it's coming from Tencent, not some random online person. looks like it's getting some credibility.

so hey, the news is indeed coming out!
...with a death toll in the five figures, that is.

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Wanglicious posted...

WAIT
Pete outdid Warren on minority vote?!
LOL that's fucking incredible. it's not that she does amazing there but his history is so piss poor and she had numbers that weren't too far away, she broke 20k votes too, so there we go again proving who her base really is. he's making inroads.

Warren got 12% in that poll, same as Yang and probably statistically tied with the non-Bernies. Strange that the rose emoji Twitter user omitted her for some reason.

Here's the whole thing though I think it might still be preliminary
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/iowa-entrance-poll-buttigieg-shows-broad-based-appeal/story?id=68735140

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Wanglicious posted...

WAIT
Pete outdid Warren on minority vote?!
LOL that's fucking incredible. it's not that she does amazing there but his history is so piss poor and she had numbers that weren't too far away, she broke 20k votes too, so there we go again proving who her base really is. he's making inroads.

I think I found the data, and Warren was at 12% on minority vote.

So this was an entrance poll. The ratio among white voters was 23% (Pete) to 17% (Warren). And the ratio among non-white voters was 15% (Pete) to 12% (Warren). She actually got closer to him among minority support compared to white support.

On Sanders minority support being so high...from the anecdotal evidence I've seen he clean sweeped the Spanish language caucus, and I guess that makes sense because AoC campaigned hard for him in Iowa and obviously speaks Spanish.

But I also wouldn't read too much into any of these numbers cause it's just an NBC entrance poll, not final alignment or anything.

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ah, that makes sense.
...it's still really weird for him to outdo her but by percent of the whole it's probably close. outdoing her in any way is pretty great for him though, this guy couldn't get support from anything darker than paper just last month.

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The fact that it allegedly happened multiple times makes me much, much less likely to believe it. That isn't a mistake that's going to happen multiple times, and if someone internally is trying to leak the real data then there's much better ways to do it than by causing the company website to update for seconds at a time. I'm a lot more inclined to believe that the images are edited for the purpose of fearmongering.

For anyone else reading this topic my strong suggestion is to use this as your primary source of information on the coronavirus outbreak: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

Also going to point out that as red13n already said on the last page, the mortality rate for the disease only seems to be around 1-5% (which is uh...pretty high in an absolute sense but is not going to lead to the type of numbers Wang is alleging) and also I just simply don't believe its possible for the Chinese government to cover up tens of thousands of deaths against the wishes of all other involved parties.
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Wanglicious posted...

ah, that makes sense.
...it's still really weird for him to outdo her but by percent of the whole it's probably close. outdoing her in any way is pretty great for him though, this guy couldn't get support from anything darker than paper just last month.

He was polling 1% among black people due to his racist record among black people in South Bend Indiana.

The entrance poll was for all minorities, though, so that probably includes East Asian, Indian, Middle Eastern, Native American. Notably, about a quarter of the minority population in Iowa is listed as Asian. A similar percentage are listed as mixed race.

He's probably still not in good shape picking up southern states with heavily African American populations.

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...happening multiple times makes you believe it less?

so curious, are accounts of hospitals having 2/3 of medical staff infected also going to be something you don't believe too?
https://twitter.com/Nectar_Gan/status/1224996581750919168

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Wanglicious posted...

...happening multiple times makes you believe it less?

More accurately, the claim that it happened multiple times makes me less likely to believe that it ever happened at all. In the case where I somehow know for certain that the website did in fact display anomalously large numbers on more than one occasion, that probably makes me somewhat more likely to believe the numbers represent something real.

I'm willing to believe hospitals with large numbers of medical staff being infected is a thing that can and possibly has happened. Even the WHO source I posted has the number of confirmed cases in the tens of thousands, and it's a reasonable assumption that lots of people unnecessarily got infected before they really knew what they were dealing with. What I'm not willing to believe is that death toll for the disease is being deliberately under-reported by a factor of almost 100.
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you do realize that there's literally hospitals that have closed because everybody got infected, right?
and that having large numbers of hospital staff infected means that just about everyone who goes to one will be infected sooner than later, even if they weren't when they went in, right?
then there's the crematories working 24/7 with 100+ body bags a day, videos of people filming hospitals full, with random dead people inside, outside, and around the place, and you're still gonna believe the organization that's taking china at their word despite everything from the chinese people saying they're full of shit. like even the CDC doesn't believe the WHO here. most governments don't and are reacting much stronger. as are chinese businesses. but you want to trust an organization that nobody involved does.

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Lots of infected people concentrated in one area is consistent with my understanding of the situation and with the WHO's account. Large numbers of dead bodies would contradict that account but you haven't provided a source for that claim so right now I don't have any reason to believe it.

I will say that I would believe the CDC over the WHO if they provided contradictory accounts for essentially the reasons you suggest, but to my knowledge that hasn't happened yet? Correct me if I'm wrong. I do trust the WHO more than hearsay reports from random citizens by a pretty clear margin.

Some other notes:
--I do suspect the number of reported infections might be underestimating by a reasonable amount. Even assuming 100% truthful/transparent reporting, it still takes time to test people, for people to seek care, etc.

--I don't consider your "100 body bags a day" thing to mean much. A basic calculation based on death rate statistics from Google (8 per 1000 people per year) suggested that about 270 people in Wuhan die every day on average, and the article says there are 3 main cremation centers handling everything. So, it seems like it pretty much adds up to me.
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eh? one of the earlier links mentioned a video showing 8 bodybags being loaded with more waiting from a single hospital. there's plenty of vids of bags of cremated remains too.

on the easiest point the WHO and CDC differ is on the idea of transmission and what you should do. WHO hasn't been right on anything so far and seems to be taking china at their words.

you're basically saying you're taking the reports by an organization that has yet to get anything right in this case over the statements, audio, and video testimony that the people themselves are posting and trying to get out to the rest of the world. you're taking their evidence and calling it hearsay reports which doesn't make any sense at all - that's direct testimony. it's literally not hearsay. it's the people themselves saying and showing what's happening - they are the direct, primary source. it's the total opposite of hearsay.

not that i expect any of this is going to convince you so hey, we'll just have to wait for this to end exactly like that "hearsay" and "fake news" of china cremating people went. don't know exactly to what extent things will be revealed as true but being a week or two late is fine. unless Wuhan burns down first, anyway, considering riots are finally starting to happen.

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Wang is all curled up in the corner with his tinfoil hat. At a certain point having a conversation with him is pointless.

because direct evidence by the people affected explicitly telling you that their government is lying is tinfoil.

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Doug Jones is voting to remove

Had a good feeling about him; glad to see I was right!

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+1 for the GOP in November!

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Predicting that he gets 54 votes to acquit (GOP + Manchin), which is especially important as it gives him a "bipartisan group of senators voted to acquit" line.

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pyresword posted...

A basic calculation based on death rate statistics from Google (8 per 1000 people per year) suggested that about 270 people in Wuhan die every day on average, and the article says there are 3 main cremation centers handling everything. So, it seems like it pretty much adds up to me.

In the interest of transparency, I will point out this calculation is probably a bit high. The 270 number was gotten via back-of-the-envelope mental math, but when I sat down and punched the actual numbers into a calculator the number I got was closer to 240. Also it seems there's some dispute over the population of Wuhan. The number I used was the estimate from the city itself of about 11 million, but other estimates I've found have placed it in the 8.5-9 million range, which would lower my estimate accordingly to about 200 people if you want to believe those estimates instead. I don't think this changes my fundamental takeaway but feel free to draw your own conclusions if you disagree.
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I'm gonna predict now that Romney splits his vote, convicting on article 1 and acquitting on 2.

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ugh that would be so Romney
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Romney is very pragmatic. I don't think he does anything that will make Trump more vulnerable to a Sanders victory (Romney's nightmare).

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That's So Romney, coming to NBC this fall.

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Wanglicious posted...

because direct evidence by the people affected explicitly telling you that their government is lying is tinfoil.

You are making extreme logical jumps from small samples that are not even necessarily outside the norm.

It is tinfoil, yes.

Do i even need to go into detail on how you are trying to argue for 'leaked' numbers that would put the death rate at a number approaching 50%.

https://twitter.com/darrensands/status/1224816153463349248?s=21

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https://www.texastribune.org/2020/02/05/texas-democrats-expect-delay-presidential-delegate-totals-super-tuesda/

Texas Secretary of State (so not actually the Democratic party's fault!) saying that they won't be able to officially award most of the delegates on Super Tuesday night but will have the state popular vote. How many more big states need to fuck up in one year until we can get rid of our dumb primary system?

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Romney dropping a scathing speech ripping apart the Trump Defense arguments. He's a vote for conviction on Article I at least. Hasn't talked about Obstruction of Congress yet.

...Apparently he's a vote to acquit on Article II but I heard that through a reporter after he finished; his speech never touched it it was all-in on Article I.

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Mitt!!!!

please reward my irrational faith in you

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considering i explicitly argued against 3/4 of the numbers at the top of this page, sure?

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Nelson_Mandela posted...

Predicting that he gets 54 votes to acquit (GOP + Manchin), which is especially important as it gives him a "bipartisan group of senators voted to acquit" line.

Manchin is like 99% to acquit. Dont think he floats the get lets just censure him thing if he was going to vote for impeachment.

I also dont trust Sinema fully either.

(Also If you didnt already think Jones was losing in November youre a crazy person)

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