Board 8 > SaveEstelle & LeonhartFour in Different Houses: Eclectic Edition [SELF]

(+) Yeah! (+)

sounds like somebody needs to watch dr. slump

(you dont need to watch dr. slump)

---

I've never even heard of Dr. Slump before

---

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8IrheLf0Ki0

Happy Valentine's Day to me

I need this game

---

wow where are the bike helmets. public safety in midgar really going downhill

---

Midgardians live on the wild side

---

It's Valentine's weekend with my fiancee so I'm not sure how much I'll watch or play this weekend.

---

Watched the live action Aladdin movie. I thought it did some really cool things. I liked some of the things they added. Most of the actors nailed their roles. Will Smith is good as the Genie, but you can't recapture the magic of Robin Williams in that role. That's no knock against him, but Genie is one of my favorite Disney characters largely because of Robin Williams.

---

wow this wasn't the live action valentine's day movie review i was expecting

---

unfortunately I couldn't talk her into the Sonic movie despite telling her it's getting rave(ish) reviews

---

We had a cake tasting so we could decide what kind of cake we want for our wedding so we got 7 different pieces of cake for 2 bucks

Chocolate chip, red velvet, French vanilla, German chocolate, white, raspberry, and coconut.

Much deliciousness

---

LeonhartFour posted...

unfortunately I couldn't talk her into the Sonic movie despite telling her it's getting rave(ish) reviews

i legit can't believe that

the trailers make it look like it's going to be so bad. and not in a "so bad its good" way... but apparently it works somewhat?

---

Well, I convinced her to see it tonight, so I'll report in with the verdict!

---

I am currently sitting in the theater waiting for the Sonic movie to start

I also bought a blue Icee to commemorate the occasion

---

Leonhart4 posted...

I am currently sitting in the theater waiting for the Sonic movie to start

I also bought a blue Icee to commemorate the occasion

I think Im gonna go see it in an hour myself

---

Finished watching it. It was okay.

The plot was pretty mediocre, but all of the references to the games were pretty cool. I also really liked the 2D sonic credits.

---

Yeah, I thought it was decent. It feels like a vintage '90s movie, complete with a Jim Carrey performance that feels reminiscent of his '90s self. I thought it had some good laughs, and some of the action was decent. I feel like the trailers don't really do it justice because they're catered to kids, and so they mostly use kiddy jokes, but deep down, it is a hokey movie about friendship. Sonic as a character is oddly endearing though despite being portrayed differently here than he is in most media.

The credit roll was the best part though

---

Also, I stumbled on the original Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles movie on Netflix just trying to find something to watch. It holds up! This is the very first movie I ever remember going to the theater and seeing.

also holy crap super young Sam Rockwell is in this movie as a Foot Clan punk recruit

---

Give us the damn bracket

---

I need to see if Sonic Mania has a winnable match and if Trails SC made it in at all

---

Started Baldur's Gate Collection and I regret to report that our adventure ended when our MC and his childhood friend were tragically killed by a bear they walked by on what was basically the first non-prologue screen. rip.

Also we are basically on gacha eve for me. (In theory I think my first opportunity for the characters i want being available in the grand gacha experiment would be late Monday) the tension is palpable - will gacha be a triumph or will I regret my life decisions over the past month? we will soon find out.

---

Made any progress in the story?

You'll have to play through a good amount of the event if you wanna get Assassin Shiki, so hopefully you'll have some decent units for that! And/or you're prepared to use Friend Servants most of the time.
---

Mac Arrowny posted...

Made any progress in the story?

I've mostly been messing around in the Valentine's Day Event for the past 2 weeks so not a terrible amount - usually only with whatever leftover AP I have when I can no longer have enough to do the 40 AP events there. I think my last comment on it was fairly late in Okeanos? I cleared that a while back and I'm in London right now. Maybe halfway based on previous chapters? We're trying to investigate the Mage's Association right now.

My team is somewhat better than the sad state they were in earlier but still not "great." Fate/Zero Berserker is my best damage dealer at Level 50/50. Mash is pretty tanky since she got a story ascension (and an aggro skill) recently and I dumped a bunch of XP to bring her right to 60/60. Rest of the team is basically maxed out... but at only Level 1 ascension so like ~Level 35 but Leonidas and Gregorious can be pretty good tanks and their only real job for me is "prevent Berserker and/or Support Servants from dying" which they're passable at. And then Hans Christen Anderson... doesn't see much use but if he can get his Noble Phantasm off that's a nice support.

I actually am loaded on EXP cards right now because I've also been stockpiling them for the Fujino/Void Shiki (and regular Shiki) experiment in the event I am fortunate enough to get them so I can immediately bring them up to speed. I'm also sitting on a bunch of ascension materials that I could use on those guys I mentioned who are sitting at Stage 1 because I don't know if I'll end up wanting the materials for anything I end up getting while I roll a bunch.

I figure my plan is once the KnK event starts the first thing I'll do is start the great roll (I'm at 250 SQ and something like 23 Summon Tickets, I think? Ticket count might be off but it's around that.) If I get Fujino and Void Shiki I'll instantly dump all the resources I have to advancing them as far as I can. Then depending on what else I have I'll either open the floodgates on resources to my existing team or divert it to any new guys I get that I like better.

...if the roll goes poorly and there's no fujino i will be despondent but probably desperately try to acquire what Saint Quartz and tickets I can through the Event and Story and just pray for a miracle by event's end

As for Friend Supports, I'm not playing when it comes to this KnK event so if I need to lean on them I'll throw the principles I've been using in the story mode out the window lol. >_> I can handle London just fine so far with my team and only Story Guests though so unless the event is a level above that I think I may be okay? And again, I am perfectly happy to use Friend Supports when there is no Story Guest provided so any missions where that's the case I have no qualms with them!

---

Cool, the events are part of the point of the game, so focusing on those is good. Having a good Mash is one of the most important things when you focus on using Support Servants.

Your characters are quite a bit higher level than before, so that's not bad! Berserkers are very useful up through London and the next chapter.

One note with KnK: it's an event where you have to complete various missions to advance, and one of those is to get the free Assassin Shiki up to level 60. You can do that with the XP you get from the event's shop, so you don't need to worry about saving XP for her (though you can if you want), but don't go spending the event's XP on other people.
---

Ah, that's good to know. Thanks!

---

About to head back home so I will resume watching things tonight

---

Mr. Robot Season 2 Episode 1 complete!

Seinfeld being about nothing is the point, darn it! Kids these days don't appreciate the true genius of that show.

---

Scooby-Doo: Mystery Incorporated Episode 40 complete!

Heck yeah Blue Falcon and Dynomutt cameos

---

LeonhartFour posted...

Mr. Robot Season 2 Episode 1 complete!

Seinfeld being about nothing is the point, darn it! Kids these days don't appreciate the true genius of that show.

i see you've met the goat leon, leon

---

he's just a goat, not the GOAT

---

Dragon Ball Episode 58 complete!

Yellow ain't got nothin' on Blue it seems

---

Because I am crazy (and a nerd who loves math and programming) I went and wrote a short program on my calculator that runs and displays the binomial and cumulative distribution functions on gacha odds so I can know my odds of getting N number of target Servants over a given number of roll opportunities. (So given R number of rolls, if there's a Servant you have a 1.5% chance of getting what are the odds you get 0, 1, 2, 3, etc. specifically and also what are the odds you get at least that many; Previously I just graphed the "failure" case with the number of rolls as the variable and inverted it so I could see how my success rate of getting at least 1 would be as I accumulated more roll opportunities in the lead-up)

i need help

But I'm also going all out for you guys on my probably-tomorrow-morning LIVE ROLL. >_>

forget gotd2 this is where the real stats action is gonna be

---

Isn't that normal? When I used to play Fire Emblem Heroes, I also wrote a program that would tell me what my odds of getting the character I wanted for a particular amount of resources so I knew how much to budget and what my safety margins were.
---

there's nothing normal about gacha

---

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Isn't that normal? When I used to play Fire Emblem Heroes, I also wrote a program that would tell me what my odds of getting the character I wanted for a particular amount of resources so I knew how much to budget and what my safety margins were.

Maybe?

I don't think the first thing I did was that unusual. It was "merely" plugging in and plotting (1-[Odds])^[Rolls] on a calculator which is a trivial thing that lets you know what your failure/success rate is with a given number of rolls.

The program I wrote, while a simple task for anyone with some basic stats/programming knowledge, goes a bit beyond that. You tell it the number of rolls, the odds of getting the target on any given roll, and then you give it a number that signifies an amount of the target and what it gives you is: the probability of getting exactly that number of the target as well as the probability of getting at least that many of the target (since there are benefits to getting up to 5 of any given Servant I was curious about the odds on that as well even if it's super unlikely)

When I actually get around to ~the roll~ in a few hours I was gonna write an inexcusably detailed post but I guess I'll give you EARLY ACCESS to give an example.

My main objective for this is to obtain Fujino, a character from Kara no Kyoukai Movie 3. There is a 1.5% chance of getting her per roll. Unless I've screwed up somewhere I have gather in these past four weeks the resources for 111 rolls.

What I previously did, and in fact like 3 weeks ago I was lamenting the odds of this, was "just" graph out (1-.015)^r to get the odds of whiffing on every roll and then flipped it so it read out as a "success" chance. Under this model I could move along the graph and see how my odds increased as I gained more roll chances. I can plug in 111 and it'll tell me I have an 81.3% chance of getting Fujino. But that's "all" it tells me - that I have an 81.3% chance of getting at least one Fujino (or more precisely it tells me that with 111 rolls I have an 18.7% of total failure and I'm just reversing that to say I have an 81.3% chance of succeeding.)

The program I wrote yesterday out of curiosity is more detailed (and more customizable since the graphing function on my calculator can only handle one variable - the number of rolls; now I can feed it multiple variables and it'll automate it so I can check on different odds, etc.).

It'll ask me: How many rolls do I have, what are the odds (in this case, for Fujino), and up to how many copies of Fujino do I want it to check for. So now what I get is:

P(0) = 18.7%

P(Exactly 1 Fujino) = 31.6%
P(At Least 1 Fujino) = 81.3% <- This is what my old model gave me since it was simply calculating P(0) and flipping it.

P(Exactly 2) = 26.4%
P(At Least 2) = 49.7%

P(Exactly 3) = 14.6%
P(At Least 3) = 23.3%

P(Exactly 4) = 6%
P(At Least 4) = 8.7%

P(Exactly 5) = 2%
P(At Least 5) = 2.6%

---

If you have probability p per roll of getting X, the odds that exactly k out of n rolls give you X is p^k*(1-p)^(n-k)*(n choose k)

Here (n choose k) = n!/(k!*(n-k)!) is a binomial coefficient, which is the number of ways to choose k items out of n without replacement (and where order doesn't matter).

---

Yeah, that's what I did.!

I went and wrote a short program on my calculator that runs and displays the binomial and cumulative distribution functions on gacha odds

Mainly because I can't graph it on my TI-83 because the domain of (n choose k) is the natural numbers while the graphing function is over all reals so it would get mad. It's possible there's some functionality pre-built in there to get it to only use integers >= 1 but to find out I'd have to go dig out the manual just like how the catalog shows it has some binomial function built in but like hell do I know what parameters it wants or if it'd even be applicable here.

Faster to just give it a short program to do it:

Basically it prompts you for # of rolls, odds, and the "k" in (n choose k). Then it calculates and spits out P(0) before entering a simple while loop to run p^k(1-p)^(n-k)*(n choose k) and outputting the result while also tracking and spitting out the cumulative sum of P(k) (or rather 1-sum; where the sum was initialized to P(0) before the loop) before incrementing k. and the loop breaks once run k times (The way I was taught programming I would normally conceive this as a for loop but the way TI programming is it was just easier for me to make it a while loop and making a counter variable that stands in for k to break out once it reaches the user's inputted k at the start)

I just didn't get into the math behind the program there but that's what the actual program is doing.

---

Ahh got ya

You actually can extend the binomial coefficients to the reals or even complex numbers! (Though probably not on a TI-83 since iirc you needed an 89 to do integrals?)

You do so by replacing the factorials with the gamma function (which is super cool): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamma_function

Also as long as k is a fixed nonnegative integer, you can make x choose k continuous in x without getting into any integrals: x choose k = x*(x-1)*...*(x-k+1)/k!

---

LordoftheMorons posted...

You actually can extend the binomial coefficients to the reals or even complex numbers! (Though probably not on a TI-83 since iirc you needed an 89 to do integrals?)

Yeah, TI-83 throws a domain error if you feed it even a positive non-integer rational. It's not an issue if all you care about is tracking P(0) since you can represent that particular case without running into that issue since it's not a significant term since it'll always be 1 regardless of n. Which is why initially all I did was graph that as 1-P(0) was still valuable as a basic "chance to not totally fail" figure. Arguably it's more useful in a far-out sense where you're unsure how many rolls you'll have because you can see various breakpoints easily like where you cross 50%, 75%, etc. Since it's obviously over the reals you get a bunch of nonsense stuff too since non-integer values are meaningless since you can't have .4 of a roll but yeah.

The TI-83 can "kinda" do integrals but not really. The TI-89's computer algebra system is OP and it has nothing like that but it can do an "okay" job depending on what you need from it. However, IIRC, it's not true integration and can only give you a numerical answer if you feed it the parameters: function, the variable, a, and b. I'm not sure which approximation method it uses, but I'm pretty sure that's what it's really doing so yeah.

~~~~~~~~~~~

Anyways, the time has arrived. Some might say that this very moment is the reason I started Fate/Grand Order in the first place. I forget which New Year's was when I marathoned Kara no Kyoukai... 2018? 2017? but really enjoyed it and honestly the more time passes and I look back on it I think I like it more and more so this is kinda big for me. It is time to transform this game into Kara no Kyoukai/Grand Order.

So yeah, for two week starting today some Kara no Kyoukai characters are available in F/GO. Two of which are only obtainable here and now AFAIK. There's Assassin Shiki who is obtained through actually playing the event so I'm not worried at all about her she's a given. Then there's Fujino who AFAIK has only ever been available during this two-week period (the English version of the game runs 2 years behind the Japanese version and she has yet to ever be available again in Japan) and Void Shiki who is I think technically available later on but you need to gamble with real money and again, I'm not about that life. Now! This is it! Now is the time to gacha! Surrender, and be free of pain, or roll, and fight your sorrow! Now is the time to shape our stories. My fate is in the hands of the RNG!

I actually did make an error from my EARLY ACCESS post but it was in my favor. I forgot to account for some pity resources the game gave out for the maintenance period it was down for in preparation of this event so instead of 111 rolls... I've got 112. Now for some despairing odds. Fujino has a 1.5% chance on any given roll. Void Shiki has an even grimmer 0.7% chance. Thankfully for me, that there's a no-roll-dependent Shiki in this event means I can take or leave getting Void Shiki here. It'd be great if I did and I'll aim for it, but I wouldn't be crushed if I fail there. Fujino though... that would hurt.

Mission Objective: Roll and pray the gacha RNG gives me Fujino
Bonus Objective: Hope the gacha RNG also gives Void Shiki

Mission Odds: Chances of obtaining Fujino over 112 rolls: 81.60%. Chance of obtaining Void Shiki over 112 rolls: 54.47%.

Additionally, while this would be a pure bonus, there is a benefit of getting multiple copies of a character up to 5. I... uh... don't think that's happening in either instance. Also in the miracle case where I get both of them fairly quickly without many rolls I don't know if I want to continue there rather than preserve my resources for some future event with other characters I may like. FTR some stats on this: The odds of getting 3 Fujino cards is just slightly lower than missing completely. Getting 5 or more sits at 2.73%. For Void Shiki it's just comical: There is literally only a 0.12% chance of getting 5 over 112 rolls. In what may haunt me should it come to pass there's actually a better chance of getting at least 2 Void Shikis than missing on Fujino which would drive me into Danganronpa levels of despair.

So now, now it is time.

"February 2020. I rolled."

---

Update Log:

10 Rolls in - No luck. Got Kid Gilgamesh twice though and what I think is about to be the boss I face in Story Mode lol.
20 Rolls - Nope. Got some Event CEs (think equipment) so that's nothing. ya go my sprinter. amazing song. This will only mean anything to people who have played the game but all 3* cards so far... not encouraging! Also Kid Alexander. gonna be able to field the kid's edition of f/z soon at this rate.
24 Rolls - Weird number I know, I've been rolling one-at-a-time with these things called Tickets until now. I'm out now. I also entered these 4 rolls never having a Saber the entire time I played this game. Now I have 3 lol.

34 Rolls - Okay now I can do an option that rolls 10 at a time automatically. You're also guaranteed a 4* card here. ...And it's the only one I've gotten to date. For MAXIMUM TROLL VALUE it's an Event CE featuring Fujino as the art on it.

44 Rolls - dammit got that trolling fujino ce twice in this batch

Roll 51 - Fujino acquired! Honestly, since we hit about 30 I was starting to feel a bit of dread especially since literally all I was getting was 3* cards (* is how rare they are, there's 5 ranks. Fujino is 4* and Void Shiki is 5*. In this roll mode everything is 3* or above so I was literally getting hosed.) I was mentally composing my post in my head because the plan was always to post upon getting Fujino, Void Shiki, or if nothing happened when we passed 50 rolls. And then the miracle happen.

54 Rolls - Since it auto-rolled 10 we went up to 54 here. At 53 I got another cool one with a 5* CE with the art featuring Touko who is another top-tier KnK character so this was a great set of rolls to me!

I'll be continuing on with Part 2 to see if I can get Void Shiki but probably a bit of delay as I do some inventory management/space clearing now that I have Fujino and can free up some space by offloading some EXP cards to her.

---

On to Part 2:

64 Rolls - Nothing. Though I got another new Event CE. Think there's only one left? A 5* though so idk if it'll come and it's not the 5* I really want anyway!

74 Rolls - Nope, but it sure feels like I've gotten every 3* Servant possible on this banner lol. Might check to see how close I am to that later.

84 Rolls - Got that 5* CE I mentioned.

94 Rolls - in fact i got it again

104 Rolls - Got a second Fujino on Roll 103! And then 104 was the CE that has her as the artwork lol. That was the last time I could auto-roll 10 though. Down to 8 left which with the odds of Void Shiki feel like just a formality but here we go.

112 Rolls/End - and nope.

Jeez, these gacha odds are pretty damn awful. Only 2 4* Servants over all those rolls thank god they were both Fujino (4* Servants in general are 3%). Something like 50 3* Servants. (I did check, if I counted right there were 29 different 3* Servants available and I got 21 of them over these 112 rolls.)

A bit bummed there was no Void Shiki but the odds were always a coinflip on that. Getting that late second Fujino helped soften the blow of possibly "wasting" 60 rolls for no real result. I'll probably make one last desperate push for Void Shiki at the end of this event but I'll probably be lucky to have crawled back to 20 more rolls and those odds are still terrible (Would be 13% and honestly I think saying I can get to 20 rolls is super generous tbqh.)

---

well with the news that FFVIIR is probably going to be 100 gigs plus day one patch it sounds like it's time for me to invest in an external hard drive

---

Yup, that's how it goes, xp. I've unfortunately experienced the pain of spending much more SQ than that without getting a 5* ;_;. Your luck was on the low side, so hopefully it's better in the future!

Not sure you noticed, but there's a survey in the news section that gives you 4 Summon Tickets for filling it out if you want another few chances. Here's a link: https://game.fate-go.us/webView/question?global_lang=en&questionId=2&checkQuestionParam=2PhvFWcSf7VejVU

Another little tip for the event: keep Shiki in your party as much as possible (in the back line if necessary) since getting her up to bond 5 is one of the mission requirements. Hope you enjoy the event! I like it quite a bit.
---

I have made it to June in P4G

---

Oh hey, I got two months of Kindle Unlimited for free! Maybe I'll try to start reading Star Wars comics again. I can also read Attack on Titan in preparation for the final season.

---

Scooby-Doo: Mystery Incorporated Episode 41 complete!

It's interesting how there seems to be this "legacy" of mystery solving teams throughout history of four people with an animal mascot, and how the animal always turns evil and betrays the team. I'm curious to see what they actually intend to do with this plotline (although I don't realistically expect Scooby to turn evil lawl).

---

Dragon Ball Episode 59 complete!

Wow, this mercenary dude is no joke. That was two brutal kills in one episode.

also he looks just like Lau Chan from Virtua Fighter

---

Mac Arrowny posted...

Yup, that's how it goes, xp. I've unfortunately experienced the pain of spending much more SQ than that without getting a 5* ;_;. Your luck was on the low side, so hopefully it's better in the future!

Not sure you noticed, but there's a survey in the news section that gives you 4 Summon Tickets for filling it out if you want another few chances. Here's a link: https://game.fate-go.us/webView/question?global_lang=en&questionId=2&checkQuestionParam=2PhvFWcSf7VejVU

Another little tip for the event: keep Shiki in your party as much as possible (in the back line if necessary) since getting her up to bond 5 is one of the mission requirements. Hope you enjoy the event! I like it quite a bit.

Yep, I saw that, thanks!

Also played a bit of the event and omg KnK music this is the best. I'm definitely going to miss this once it's over.

---

Mr. Robot Season 2 Episode 2 complete!

I really don't like the turn Angela has taken over the last few episodes.

also man Gideon has like the worst luck of anyone on the show especially considering he's one of the few relatively decent people here

---

Yeah, I was gonna highlight Gideon as one of the "good guys" when you raised it early Season 1 but didn't know if that'd count as character spoilers but he's probably the nicest guy in the show.

---

I don't even understand what happened there or why it needed to happen but the actual decent guys just get put through the ringer here

---