Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 227: Cancel the Politics Topic: 250 B8ers will Die

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xp1337
06/27/19 10:43:05 AM
#301:


Atrocious decision, but not unexpected from the SCOTUS that gutted the VRA because we "solved" racism. Democratic rights continue to erode.

~~~

Before I work myself into anger and frustration over that, I guess I'll do what I originally intended to do but wasn't around until now to do: debate reactions.

Warren performed the best, IMO. I admit I'm biased because she's my candidate of choice, but I felt her answers were strong and she did well IMO. I want to check a speaking time breakdown because it felt like her time was frontloaded in hour 1 (which, admittedly, you'd want if you were her because attention spans) because it felt like they hardly went to her in hour 2. I started thinking it was a conscious effort on the moderators to try and equalize time or something... but I think Beto and Booker didn't have quite the same apparent disparity between hours and also had a good deal of focus in hour 1 but wow this went off on a wonkish tangent. fitting i guess?

Castro also did pretty good IMO. Think he benefited from going head-to-head with Beto on immigration and was quite solid all around. Booker was similarly solid.

I'd probably find De Blasio's interruptions more annoying if they weren't pretty much exclusively challenging the others from the left.

Unpopular take in this topic it seems, but I think Delaney had a strong performance... relative to both his position (it was between him and Ryan for the "who?" award on this stage) and his lane (the guy running to the right.) To be clear, I disagree with his direction for the party, but I felt like he did a good job in appealing to that lane and trying to claim it for his own. It was him, Ryan, and Klobuchar who were basically there on that stage for the "moderate/right" Democrats and he was far and away the best at selling his message of that trio. And given that he's polling at like -2% I think he clearly beat expectations on that front.

Inslee, Klobuchar, and Gabbard felt mostly like they were just there. I'll get to the Ryan implosion in a sec, but I didn't really see that as a plus for Gabbard as much as Ryan just being terrible. Of course, it's no secret I have a negative view of Gabbard but I really don't think that's coloring my view on this at all. Felt like a bland performance IMO.

Beto was similarly giving a bland performance IMO, he just got a lot more speaking time to do so.

Finally, Ryan. oh my god. His closing statement should have been announcing he was withdrawing from the race and apologizing for wasting everyone's time up there. Even if you ignore the whole Gabbard exchange he just gave a really weak performance, especially contrasted with Delaney who was occupying the same relative space. yikes.

Debate Performance Rankings IMO (This isn't my "who do I like/agree with" ratings, but how I felt they sold themselves and their message going forward):

Warren
Delaney
Castro
Booker
De Blasio
Beto
Inslee
Gabbard
Klobuchar
...
...
Ryan

I was also a bit surprised that the Delaney/Ryan/Klobuchar wing didn't come out more hostile to the progressive wing and its ideas. Maybe we'll see it tonight with Hickenlooper v Sanders. Like there was some pushback from them but I was expecting much more direct challenges to some of the core ideas like Medicare for All (like yeah there was some but not as bad I expected), College Debt/Tuition, etc.

Some of the questions were baaaaad though. Wish there was a bit more challenging on some of them by the candidates. There was one moment where I was like "god thank you" when one of the candidates (Beto? I forget) was asked about buyback programs and immediately corrected the moderator's framing of "government taking your guns!" Happened on other issues too, ugh.
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red sox 777
06/27/19 10:44:38 AM
#302:


Punting on the census question though. Well, Roberts loves punting, so 2 definitive opinions in a day was probably too much to hope for.
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Nelson_Mandela
06/27/19 11:47:21 AM
#303:


Yeah the Census decision is a weird one. Roberts sided with the majority that a citizenship question isn't unconstitutional in theory... but then said they still can't include it until they provide an adequate justification.

So I guess that means it'll just come back to the SCOTUS soon?
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DoomTheGyarados
06/27/19 12:00:39 PM
#304:


Should be interesting if they can muster that adequate justification though just because so far they really, really haven't.
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xp1337
06/27/19 12:14:00 PM
#305:


Surprised on that census decision (obviously since I said I expected 5-4 in favor of the government before), if anything I expected the reverse - a ruling in favor of the government on census and a narrow, wonky win in the gerrymander case that was limited in scope.

At least it wasn't a double dose of terrible rulings, for whatever silver lining that's worth.

Edit: That said, reading Robert's opinion is almost comical in a dark humor way because you can see him basically wring his hands that he wanted to rule for the government in this case but they were just so obviously lying that he couldn't do it. Seriously there's a whole section where he laments about how rare it is for there to be so much evidence about the government's reasoning but that since it's there SCOTUS can't "exhibit a naivety from which ordinary citizens are free." He 100% rules in their favor if they can come up with even the thinnest justification.
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red sox 777
06/27/19 12:27:05 PM
#306:


I didn't get the chance to read it yet. Did he say what a good justification would be? Because if he did, I expect the government will now just copy/paste that and say that is their justification.
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LordoftheMorons
06/27/19 12:51:50 PM
#307:


Well it sounds like the evidence from the dead dude makes it pretty definitive that the goal was to dilute Hispanic voting power so....

Also agreed about Delaney doing pretty well (not that it will take him above zero support)
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kevwaffles
06/27/19 12:58:09 PM
#308:


Aren't they literally about to run out of time on the census? Wasn't that the point of getting it to the Supreme Court now?
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xp1337
06/27/19 1:05:15 PM
#309:


red sox 777 posted...
I didn't get the chance to read it yet. Did he say what a good justification would be? Because if he did, I expect the government will now just copy/paste that and say that is their justification.

Not really. I'm not sure how much backstory you know on the case, so I'll include some here (and for the benefit of anyone else reading)

Under the Administrative Procedure Act, Commerce was challenged on the citizenship question. Commerce had to give the reason why they chose to add the question. Ross stated that the reason was DOJ had asked him to in order to enforce the VRA.

When the case was being argued at the district court level, they compiled a bunch of information at the time which showed that was BS. Ross came in with the intention to add the question from the beginning and Commerce basically went around to the other agencies to get a reason, eventually landing on DOJ.

A few things of note here: Roberts doesn't seem to find anything wrong with Ross coming in with this idea, and he also notes that its fine for the government to have additional unstated reasons for making a decision. In fact, he even says its the opinion of the majority that the district court was "premature" in authorizing discovery outside the administrative record (which is where the story that this had anything to do with the VRA fell apart) though notes that once that information started coming in "largely justified such extra-record discovery as occurred" so SCOTUS included that evidence in its review as well.

Consequently, Roberts find that Commerce lied about its reasoning and thus has no recourse but to remand the case back to the agency to give them a non-pretext justification. Some specific quotes: "And unlike a typical case in which an agency may have both stated and unstated reasons for a decision, here the VRA enforcement rationale - the sole stated reason - seems to have been contrived" and a bit later, "Accepting such contrived reasons would defeat the purpose of the enterprise. If judicial review is to be more than an empty ritual, it must demand something better than the explanation offered for the action taken in this case."

Basically, if Ross and Commerce didn't lie it sounds like the majority would have accepted it. That was Robert's problem - when they were asked what their reason was, they lied. And since the District Court got the evidence they did so (which again, Roberts says he thinks was premature of them to demand!) they can't overlook it.

tl;dr: It's not that Roberts felt their stated justification was weak. It was just such transparently a lie that he had to reject it.
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xp1337
06/27/19 1:11:35 PM
#310:


kevwaffles posted...
Aren't they literally about to run out of time on the census? Wasn't that the point of getting it to the Supreme Court now?

Their position was that they had to have it all finalized by the 30th. However, as I noted in the discussion with red sox pre-decision, a government witness stated actually they could pull it off as late as the end of October.

So, if you assume the administration was telling the truth (lol) then yes, they run out of time in 3 days. However, I'm going to highly doubt that!
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red sox 777
06/27/19 1:13:35 PM
#311:


Yeah, I highly doubt they really need 6 months to print some forms. Cancel a presidential golf trip to buy extra printers if you really need the money!
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kevwaffles
06/27/19 1:15:44 PM
#312:


Ah, gotcha. I did not remember that it was them saying (pretending) they were running out of time in the first place.
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Xeybozn
06/27/19 1:53:14 PM
#313:


So they can wait until October to finalize the census forms, but is there enough time between then and now for the Supreme Court to make another ruling on the subject?
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Jakyl25
06/27/19 1:59:47 PM
#314:


Who needs deadlines?

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1144298731887628288?s=21

Seems totally ridiculous that our government, and indeed Country, cannot ask a basic question of Citizenship in a very expensive, detailed and important Census, in this case for 2020. I have asked the lawyers if they can delay the Census, no matter how long, until the.....


We can make new ones
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xp1337
06/27/19 2:00:04 PM
#315:


Xeybozn posted...
So they can wait until October to finalize the census forms, but is there enough time between then and now for the Supreme Court to make another ruling on the subject?

I think so, if they wanted to. Term starts first Monday of October.

For comparison, the first decision of this (2018) term was argued on 10/1 and decided 11/6.
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red sox 777
06/27/19 2:08:47 PM
#316:


The Supreme Court can give expedited review if there is a pressing national need. They decided Bush v. Gore in 3 days.
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DoomTheGyarados
06/27/19 2:24:03 PM
#317:


This ain't that tho
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NFUN
06/27/19 3:05:37 PM
#318:


Jakyl25 posted...
Who needs deadlines?

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1144298731887628288?s=21

Seems totally ridiculous that our government, and indeed Country, cannot ask a basic question of Citizenship in a very expensive, detailed and important Census, in this case for 2020. I have asked the lawyers if they can delay the Census, no matter how long, until the.....


We can make new ones

wow that was definitely not written by trump

usually when aides write tweets they at least attempt to mimic the style as a whole, but this is just blatant
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LordoftheMorons
06/27/19 3:28:46 PM
#319:


NFUN posted...
Jakyl25 posted...
Who needs deadlines?

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1144298731887628288?s=21

Seems totally ridiculous that our government, and indeed Country, cannot ask a basic question of Citizenship in a very expensive, detailed and important Census, in this case for 2020. I have asked the lawyers if they can delay the Census, no matter how long, until the.....


We can make new ones

wow that was definitely not written by trump

usually when aides write tweets they at least attempt to mimic the style as a whole, but this is just blatant

The next tweet includes the phrase decisive decision so I think theres a pretty good chance it was
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NFUN
06/27/19 3:43:33 PM
#320:


"decisive decision" is a perfectly cromulent phrase. it's not very good, but it's actually coherent and means something useful
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red sox 777
06/27/19 3:44:23 PM
#321:


Well I'm going to decide to make an indecisive decision today based on factual facts and tautological tautologies.
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NFUN
06/27/19 3:50:32 PM
#322:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hB-APrkmSdw" data-time="

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LordoftheMorons
06/27/19 7:52:44 PM
#323:


https://twitter.com/coindesk/status/1144359356022034432

Beyond parody

"Blockchain hasn't proven to have any use whatsoever... but maybe it can solve Middle East Peace!"
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Samurai7
06/27/19 8:11:54 PM
#324:


red sox 777 posted...
Well I'm going to decide to make an indecisive decision today based on factual facts and tautological tautologies.


You can make an indecisive decision. Let's wait and see mentality.
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Paratroopa1
06/27/19 8:16:56 PM
#325:


LordoftheMorons posted...
https://twitter.com/coindesk/status/1144359356022034432

Beyond parody

"Blockchain hasn't proven to have any use whatsoever... but maybe it can solve Middle East Peace!"

This is like a mad lib, let's use [thing] to solve [problem]. Like this is about as coherent as "let's use drones to solve the healthcare crisis" or "let's use Patreon to solve climate change."
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Shaduln
06/27/19 8:20:12 PM
#326:


Paratroopa1 posted...
"let's use Patreon to solve climate change."

I'm listening.
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Paratroopa1
06/27/19 8:25:08 PM
#327:


It's definitely more likely than using blockchain to solve Israel-Palestine
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Jakyl25
06/27/19 8:32:12 PM
#328:


Forget one-state solutions or two-state solutions, weve got solid-state solutions
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Nrrr
06/27/19 8:33:26 PM
#329:


Bernie's team is live on twitch right now lol
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Paratroopa1
06/27/19 8:34:46 PM
#330:


good luck trying to compete with banjo kazooie
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StealThisSheen
06/27/19 8:37:09 PM
#331:


Did he get Mario Maker 2 early, too
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Mr Lasastryke
06/27/19 8:39:31 PM
#332:


yeah, a streamer i was watching yesterday was talking about the bernie twitch channel.

one guy in chat said "what game is he going to stream? wall street kid?"
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Mr Lasastryke
06/27/19 8:45:11 PM
#333:


the bernie chat right now is what the GDQ chat used to be before it became sub-only
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CelesMyUserName
06/27/19 9:09:17 PM
#334:


lmao fuck hickenlooper

they're gonna call you a socialist oh no they've never done that before
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CelesMyUserName
06/27/19 9:19:06 PM
#335:


+1 Swalwell
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LordoftheMorons
06/27/19 9:20:16 PM
#336:


What did Harris say that got a big cheer? I missed it.
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Nrrr
06/27/19 9:20:44 PM
#337:


LordoftheMorons posted...
What did Harris say that got a big cheer? I missed it.


Uh something about how we don't need a food fight, we need to put food on the table
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Inviso
06/27/19 9:21:43 PM
#338:


Swalwell was a badass with that Biden burn.
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The Mana Sword
06/27/19 9:21:47 PM
#339:


food fight sounds fun tbqh
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CelesMyUserName
06/27/19 9:22:26 PM
#340:


she did pretty well to stick out of that shouting match and settle it down there

seems like a lot more fighting for a word in this time
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HeroicSpiderPig
06/27/19 9:23:28 PM
#341:


Justice for Marianne!
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Nrrr
06/27/19 9:24:07 PM
#342:


Give us orb power you monsters #mariannemindset
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LordoftheMorons
06/27/19 9:28:00 PM
#343:


"sicknesscare system"
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CelesMyUserName
06/27/19 9:28:24 PM
#344:


williamson got such a confused round of applause for a second there that like abrupt stopped

*fake edit*... and again
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CelesMyUserName
06/27/19 9:29:52 PM
#345:


Bennet on Bernie again eh
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CelesMyUserName
06/27/19 9:31:53 PM
#346:


lmao seriously day 2 got no rails
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LordoftheMorons
06/27/19 9:34:50 PM
#347:


I wish they would cut mics
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Nelson_Mandela
06/27/19 9:36:28 PM
#348:


Lmao Biden just needs to stand there and not self destruct

What a joke country we live in
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Reg
06/27/19 9:42:57 PM
#349:


ayyyyy she actually mentioned that American Foreign Policy is the root cause of the immigration problems
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ExThaNemesis
06/27/19 9:43:47 PM
#350:


it's amazing how for two nights 19 people basically plagiarized bernie sanders from 2016 and didn't get called on it

well, 18. williamson what
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