Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1323

(+) Yeah! (+)

We need Hitler in another contest. I bet he beats Sora at this point.
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Does anyone knows where I can go to see the previous contest stats in this site?
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Logience posted...

_Dog_ posted...

@HaRRicH posted...

Can't wait for us to get to the eligibility of religious figures.

I could see the internet rally for Pope Francis!

Nah, get John Paul II. I'd love to see Poland be the deciding factor in a poll.

Heck, maybe we could start a really big DDOS attack by putting him up against Geralt.

The conservative Catholics will rally for Link to stop Pope Francis.
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red sox 777 posted...

Logience posted...

_Dog_ posted...

@HaRRicH posted...

Can't wait for us to get to the eligibility of religious figures.

I could see the internet rally for Pope Francis!

Nah, get John Paul II. I'd love to see Poland be the deciding factor in a poll.

Heck, maybe we could start a really big DDOS attack by putting him up against Geralt.

The conservative Catholics will rally for Link to stop Pope Francis.

I'm curious to see a conservative catholic vs hentai pervert rally-off
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did you guys miss the fictional part of this contest idea?
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Safer_777 posted...

Does anyone knows where I can go to see the previous contest stats in this site?

http://thengamer.com/xstats/
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im317 posted...

did you guys miss the fictional part of this contest idea?

HaRRicH wanted religious figures, so I proposed Francis as he seemed to be the type that could be rallied. Not my idea.
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Moses vs Guybrush Threepwood, who would win?
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_Dog_ posted...

HaRRicH wanted religious figures

HaRRicH posted...

Can't wait for us to get to the eligibility of religious figures.

^ Just to clarify, I was only referencing past times we've argued over this idea and how it has led to religion in the past. I can see why you thought that in hindsight though, my bad -- I don't have a strong opinion here either way.
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Kramer would make the finals riding off Stormfront rallies.
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HaRRicH posted...

_Dog_ posted...

HaRRicH wanted religious figures

HaRRicH posted...

Can't wait for us to get to the eligibility of religious figures.

^ Just to clarify, I was only referencing past times we've argued over this idea and how it has led to religion in the past. I can see why you thought that in hindsight though, my bad -- I don't have a strong opinion here either way.

Okay then. Jesus loves you
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But seriously not even a bonus poll? Damn...
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Holy shit is the wording on this poll terrible.
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Not_Wylvane posted...

Holy shit is the wording on this poll terrible.

What options in this poll do you think are worded poorly?
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There's no "No, I'm not traveling because all my friends and family are where I live" type option, which would be my choice. Feels like there's a couple other possibilities missing as well.

Fifth option suggests you're gonna be completely shut-in for the holidays (which, GameFAQs, yeah I get it), and sixth is the same except you're working. They just all seem weirdly specific for a poll with six choices to me.
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Not_Wylvane posted...

There's no "No, I'm not traveling because all my friends and family are where I live" type option, which would be my choice. Feels like there's a couple other possibilities missing as well.

Closest option you could vote for is "No, I have time off, but I'm not going anywhere or seeing anybody". You have to remember that the poll is asking if you are traveling for the holidays, not "are you going to visit family or friends this holiday". In your case, you won't need to travel for the specific purpose of visiting family or friends as they are already with you right now.
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Guys, this may have been discussed before, but...

Finally, the long-awaited question: Assuming 2013 Draven = 2018 Draven, how much does 2018 Link put on 2013's weakest character?
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http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ContestBingo-KP.png

Not sure we quite got it done this year?

Thanks to the Legends bracket, that Link spot at #1 is choking like three different bingos.
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AxemRedRanger posted...

http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ContestBingo-KP.png

Not sure we quite got it done this year?

Thanks to the Legends bracket, that Link spot at #1 is choking like three different bingos.

7 and 9 will never happen again
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What happened to the topic that had the top of the contest rankings and whether people were prize or fun entries? Like I thought it had a post in this morning/yesterday so no way should it have been purged but not sure why it would have been deleted

Advokaiser posted...

Guys, this may have been discussed before, but...

Finally, the long-awaited question: Assuming 2013 Draven = 2018 Draven, how much does 2018 Link put on 2013's weakest character?

Using unadjusted stats 2018 Link gets 99.65% against 2013 Spring Breeze Dancin' through Draven.
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that might not be too far off to be honest
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Nanis23 posted...

AxemRedRanger posted...

http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ContestBingo-KP.png

Not sure we quite got it done this year?

Thanks to the Legends bracket, that Link spot at #1 is choking like three different bingos.

7 and 9 will never happen again

We'll probably never see full blown fanboy wars, but I'm inclined to count TheStupidRaptor's hatedom for KOS-MOS as close enough. There was enough salt there for both ways.
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charmander6000 posted...

Advokaiser posted...

Guys, this may have been discussed before, but...

Finally, the long-awaited question: Assuming 2013 Draven = 2018 Draven, how much does 2018 Link put on 2013's weakest character?

Using unadjusted stats 2018 Link gets 99.65% against 2013 Spring Breeze Dancin' through Draven.

Wait, Spring Breeze Dancin' was ranked lower than Chester?
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In the unadjusted stats, Mewtwo doing so well gave Chester a boost.
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Oh hey, the updater still thinks the contest is on, @creativename
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Something interesting came up in the PCA that I'd like to put here in the stats topic. It's about 16 seeds.

Some 16 seeds don't deserve to only be 16 seeds. Some do. For the hell of it I went and looked this up. Here is the list of every 16 seed we've ever had in a contest.

Servbot, Chop Chop Master Onion, Goemon, Pitfall Harry, AiAi, CATS, Captain Olimar, Raiden, Metal Gear, Secret of Mana, Suikoden 2, Starcraft, CATS, Earthworm Jim, Duke Nukem, Terry Bogard, Thrall, Lightning, Falco, Midna, Prince of Persia, Ridley, Proto Man, Marth, inFamous, Star Ocean 3, Guitar Hero 2, Beyond Good and Evil, Viewtiful Joe, Jet Grind Radio, Timesplitters 2, Wii Sports, Ratchet and Clank 3, Assassin's Creed 2, Age of Empires 2, Phoenix Wright, Hearthstone, Cave Story, Shenmue, Splatoon, Cuphead, Primrose, Ryo Hazuki, Cayde-6, Hat Kid, Rosalina, Miles Edgeworth, and Wesker.

If you want to count the 27 seeds (ugh) in that 3way contest, you get Tingle, Dan, Little Mac, Commander Keen, Prinny, Missile, Sandbag, Magikarp, and Fawful.

Of that list, here is my opinion on who is actual 16 seed material, and by this I mean comparable to the NCAAs where they have the 16 for a reason and would have no prayer of ever winning a match regardless of opponent. I know with LOL x stats and such we can give almost anyone a win on a technicality, but bear with me here.

My list of true 16 seeds: Servbot, Chop Chop Master Onion, Goemon, Pitfall Harry, AiAi, inFamous, Star Ocean 3, Guitar Hero 2, Beyond Good and Evil, Jet Grind Radio, Timesplitters 2, Wii Sports, Age of Empires 2, Hearthstone, Cave Story, Cuphead, Primrose, Cayde-6, Hat Kid, Commander Keen, Prinny, and Missile. A case could be made no one else on that entire list is immune from winning. We saw CATS beat Nathan Drake once. Terry Bogard would probably beat most other characters on this list. Phoenix Wright is a 3 seed every contest and his game just got forgotten about once. I could go on, but you get the point.

Who do you guys think are true 16 seeds and who do you think just doesn't get nominated hard enough? Starcraft is the obvious screwup, but I feel like there are others.
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I think the next most obvious ones I would point to are Falco, Midna, Ridley, Proto Man, and Marth, all decent or decent-ish Nintendo/Nintendo-adjacent characters who squeaked past the 2010 vote-ins. Raiden, Lightning (not at the time, because her game hadn't come out yet), Assassin's Creed II (certainly performed like a 16-seed, but it should have been higher based on other metrics), Phoenix Wright (based on the character's huge nomination support every character battle), Rosalina, and Wesker are the other 16-seeds who look off as 16-seeds to me.
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Playrate poll for the original Mega Man X:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7447-

We've already gotten a playrate poll for the original Mega Man, but now we have one for Mega Man X.
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ShatteredElysium posted...

What happened to the topic that had the top of the contest rankings and whether people were prize or fun entries? Like I thought it had a post in this morning/yesterday so no way should it have been purged but not sure why it would have been deleted

I was looking for it myself this morning. Glad it's not just me that thinks it's odd that it's missing.
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Like it had to have been deleted by a moderator for some reason but I can't think of why it would be deleted.

We've already had a playrate poll for MMX in the past, too.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5359-20-years-later-have-you-ever-played-mega-man-x

And Missile has gotten not-last in a poll before. He beat Kerrigan!
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ShatteredElysium posted...

Like it had to have been deleted by a moderator for some reason but I can't think of why it would be deleted.

Maybe some sort of "legal" thing?

People are mentioning that they are/are not eligible for prizes. So then maybe someone thinks they are going to be winning something when in reality they are not?
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Missile, Primrose and Cuphead could absolutely win matches given the right opponent I think. Guitar Hero 2 and Star Ocean 3 as well.
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Seanchan posted...

ShatteredElysium posted...

Like it had to have been deleted by a moderator for some reason but I can't think of why it would be deleted.

Maybe some sort of "legal" thing?

People are mentioning that they are/are not eligible for prizes. So then maybe someone thinks they are going to be winning something when in reality they are not?

I just want to know how far up I am. At a minimum I'm 4th but not sure if 1 and 2 are prize brackets. Fron posting history and account age I think they likely are. I saw that 3rd said they were prize eligible already

ShatteredElysium posted...

What happened to the topic that had the top of the contest rankings and whether people were prize or fun entries? Like I thought it had a post in this morning/yesterday so no way should it have been purged but not sure why it would have been deleted

By making that topic the guy was admitting he was impersonating people with read-only alts, which is the only way to actually ban a read-only account for imping because GameFAQs is really fucking dumb. You wonder why we can't get 30k votes for a contest match anymore? This site has been run terribly for well over a decade and people eventually just left.

That plus harassing people nonstop finally got him banned.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/community/dva69
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Back in the day, it was listed on the results whether or not you qualified for a prize. Only the prize eligible entries got "1st Place", "2nd Place", etc. next to their names.
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Well eventually it will do that, I just don't know how long that process takes and I'm impatient

Ulti_PCA posted...

ShatteredElysium posted...

What happened to the topic that had the top of the contest rankings and whether people were prize or fun entries? Like I thought it had a post in this morning/yesterday so no way should it have been purged but not sure why it would have been deleted

By making that topic the guy was admitting he was impersonating people with read-only alts, which is the only way to actually ban a read-only account for imping because GameFAQs is really fucking dumb. You wonder why we can't get 30k votes for a contest match anymore? This site has been run terribly for well over a decade and people eventually just left.

That plus harassing people nonstop finally got him banned.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/community/dva69

So somebody reported him then. Kinda lame they couldn't just axe him and leave the topic.

Don't know why anyone would bother reporting him for that though, the topic was fairly innocuous

Haven't played a single MM/X game.
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Oh Dva is banned
Thanks god for getting rid of another awful user
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ShatteredElysium posted...

Well eventually it will do that, I just don't know how long that process takes and I'm impatient

The results will be published January 1st. They will show the kind of entry for every user as well as their prize.
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Oh that's nice then. I wonder if they will contact me before then as it said something about a 10 day period to claim your prize in the rules

Nevermind, re-read and I see that it says they will contact prize winners on Jan 1st

ShatteredElysium posted...

I just want to know how far up I am. At a minimum I'm 4th but not sure if 1 and 2 are prize brackets. Fron posting history and account age I think they likely are. I saw that 3rd said they were prize eligible already

I think I remember seeing halfsilver in 2nd saying he was prize eligible before the topic was deleted.

KamikazePotato posted 2018 x-stats setting Link to 50%. I made a set of adjusted-standings that allow you to make comparisons between the 2013 stats and the 2018 stats. The traditional way to adjust the 2018 x-stats appropriately is to eliminate the outliers and then do least squares (or an average) of what is left. I would like to suggest that is a bad idea. If you look at each character individually, you will see that a LOT of characters have fallen in popularity. To remedy that situation, I removed all characters who appeared to have dropped significantly since 2013. From the characters that remained, Sub-Zero seemed to be the best fit as a constant between '13 and '18. However, given that KKP has given Sonic's division adjusted pretty low, perhaps using Sub-Zero isn't the best idea. Instead, I will use Crono as the constant.

Here's how I extrapolated some of the characters that made the Legends bracket:

Zelda - through Cloud
Mario - through Cloud
Tifa - through Mario/Sephiroth and Tifa/Sephiroth
Samus - through Tifa
Snake - through Zelda
Sonic - through Snake
Crono - through Alucard/Cloud, Alucard/Bowser, and Bowser/Crono
Mega Man - through Crono/Mega Man
Ganondorf - through Mega Man

By contrast, KKP measured Zelda through her direct match with Link, and then measured Snake, Sonic, and Auron's division (and Samus and Tifa, too, I think) through Zelda.
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Here are the 2018 Link-adjusted x-stats. Note that Link's 2013 x-stat is 52.23%, so Link 2018 is expected to get somewhere around 54.7% on Link 2013. Again, Crono is the constant here.

Link- 57.66%
Samus Aran - 47.16%
Cloud Strife - 45.54%
Mario - 45.32%
Zelda (Legends) - 44.57%
Solid Snake - 44.29%
Crono - 40.99%
Pikachu - 40.90%
Mega Man - 40.81%
Tifa Lockheart - 38.74%
Mega Man X - 38.60%
Luigi - 37.68%
Sonic the Hedgehog - 37.61%
Bowser - 36.99%
Yoshi - 36.98%
Sephiroth (Legends) - 36.93%
Alucard - 36.07%
Zero- 35.54%
Auron - 34.36%
Kirby - 34.13%
Aerith - 33.71%
Red - 3.32%
Sora - 32.72%
Squall Leonhart - 32.70%
Ganondorf - 32.62%
Mewtwo - 32.46%
Geralt - 32.20%
Charizard - 32.14%
Fox - 31.89%
Big Boss - 31.86%
Bayonetta - 31.64%
Vivi - 31.35%
Knuckles - 31.17%
Princess Peach - 31.16%
2B - 30.93%
Simon Belmont - 30.79%
Vincent Valentine - 30.38%
Terra Branford- 30.34%
Pac-Man - 30.33%
Ryu Hayabusa - 30.31%
Crash Bandicoot - 30.03%
Kratos - 29.93%
Sub-Zero- 29.75%
Ryu - 29.35%
Jill Valentine - 29.28%
Kefka - 29.26%
Magus - 29.23%
Yuna - 29.13%
Frog - 28.92%
Waluigi - 28.70%
Ness - 28.63%
Amaterasu - 28.53%
Dante - 28.45%
Rosalina - 28.32%
Wario - 28.25%
Donkey Kong - 28.23%
Ridley - 27.62%
Cecil Harvey - 27.52%
Scorpion - 27.48%
Captain Toad - 26.97%
Zidane Tribal - 26.93%
Chun Li - 26.82%
Shadow - 26.76%
The Boss- 26.12%
Captain Falcon - 25.91%
Lara Croft - 25.73%
Shovel Knight - 25.59%
Leon Kennedy - 25.02%
Revolver Ocelot - 24.39%
GlaDOS - 24.36%
Tidus - 24.31%
King Dedede - 24.15%
Lucina - 23.75%
Garrus Vakarian - 23.53%
Bomberman - 23.51%
Spyro the Dragon - 23.51%
L-Block - 23.30%
Ramza Beoulve - 23.23%
Tails - 22.87%
Metal Sonic - 22.72%
Riku- 22.53%
Shulk - 22.27%
Master Hand - 22.05%
Ezio- 21.99%
Albert Wesker- 21.95%
Velvet Crowe - 21.73%
Phoenix Wright - 21.63%
Ike - 21.34%
Geno - 20.77%
Richter Belmont - 20.52%
KOS-MOS - 20.50%
Master Chief - 20.36%
Isaac - 20.28%
Ryo Hazuki - 20.23%
Claire Redfield - 20.08%
Monika - 20.03%
Nathan Drake - 19.80%
Shepard - 19.64%
Lightning- 19.55%
King K. Rool - 19.15%
Shantae - 19.03%
Noctis - 18.73%
Ellie - 18.68%
Joker - 18.64%
Chris Redfield - 18.63%
Lloyd Irving - 18.53%
Kazuma Kiryu - 18.40%
Primrose - 18.35%
D. Va - 18.16%
Aqua - 17.48%
Guile - 17.38%
Sans - 17.36%
Aloy - 17.10%
Miles Edgeworth - 16.98%
James Sunderland - 16.93%
Gordon Freeman - 16.72%
Metal Man - 16.52%
Neptune - 16.45%
Cuphead - 16.16%
Joel - 16.09%
John Marston - 16.06%
Godot - 15.99%
Hat Kid - 15.77%
Yu Narukam - 15.74%
Dragonborn - 15.67%
Aya Brea - 15.39%
Isabelle - 14.94%
Estelle Bright - 14.35%
Neku Sakuraba - 13.96%
Cayde-6 - 13.73%
Monokuma - 13.66%
Goro Majima - 12.62%
Quiet - 12.55%
Victor Sullivan - 12.45%
Chloe Price - 10.09%
Draven - 6.76%

The adjusted x-stats (next post) will include the following adjustments:

Ganondorf (44% on Mega Man)
Zelda in the main bracket (Fox 2013 = Fox 2018)
Sephiroth in the main bracket (C. Falcon 2013 = C. Falcon 2018)
Kirby (equal to Bowser)
Phoenix Wright (37% on Kirby)
Geralt (Hayabusa 2013 = Hayabusa 2018)
Tails (33% on Luigi)
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Zelda was adjusted via her projected results against Aeris, Ramza, and Fox. I ignored the Link match and pretty much everything she had after Snake because she got way stronger after that match.

Sonic's division wasn't adjusted lower than normal. Sonic and Auron just did consistently bad. Sub-Zero (who was one of the constants I used) didn't end up too far away from where he usually is, so I think it turned out okay.

The other ones took a lot more adjusting than I have time to talk about. It wasn't as simple as 'Mario through Cloud' because a lot of the Legends matches were this gaping pit of bandwagons, revenge votes, SFF, and non-transitive results.
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2018 Adjusted Extrapolated Standings
Link - 57.66%
Samus Aran - 47.16%
Cloud Strife - 45.54%
Mario - 45.32%
Zelda (Legends) - 44.57%
Solid Snake - 44.29%
Zelda (Main) - 42.87%
Crono - 40.99%
Pikachu - 40.90%
Mega Man - 40.81%
Sephiroth (Main) - 40.50%
Tifa Lockheart - 38.74%
Mega Man X - 38.60%
Luigi - 37.68%
Sonic the Hedgehog - 37.61%
Bowser - 36.99%
Kirby - 36.99%
Yoshi - 36.98%
Sephiroth (Legends) - 36.93%
Alucard - 36.07%
Ganondorf - 35.92%
Zero - 35.54%
Vivi - 34.51%
Auron - 34.36%
Red - 33.32%
Sora - 32.72%
Mewtwo - 32.46%
Aerith - 32.42%
Ryu - 32.19%
Charizard - 32.14%
Big Boss - 31.86%
Squall Leonhart - 31.45%
Dante - 31.32%
Amaterasu - 31.29%
Knuckles - 31.17%
Princess Peach - 31.16%
Donkey Kong - 31.07%
2B - 30.93%
Fox - 30.67%
Vincent Valentine-30.38%
Terra Branford-30.34%
Crash Bandicoot-30.03%
Kratos-29.93%
Sub-Zero-29.75%
Chun Li-29.52%
Kefka-29.26%
Magus-29.23%
Yuna-29.13%
Frog-28.92%
Ness-28.63%
Geralt-28.48%
Captain Falcon-28.41%
Wario-28.25%
Lara Croft-28.22%
Jill Valentine-28.16%
Bayonetta-27.98%
Ridley-27.62%
Waluigi-27.61%
Leon Kennedy-27.54%
Cecil Harvey-27.52%
Scorpion-27.48%
Simon Belmont-27.23%
Zidane Tribal-26.93%
Pac-Man-26.82%
Ryu Hayabusa-26.81%
Tidus-26.77%
Shadow-26.76%
Captain Toad-25.94%
Spyro the Dragon-25.88%
Phoenix Wright-25.26%
The Boss-25.12%
Rosalina-25.05%
Ike-24.92%
Tails-24.87%
Shovel Knight-24.61%
Revolver Ocelot-24.39%
GlaDOS-24.36%
King Dedede-24.15%
Albert Wesker-24.07%
Lucina-23.75%
Bomberman-23.51%
L-Block-23.30%
Garrus Vakarian-22.63%
Richter Belmont-22.50%
KOS-MOS-22.48%
Ramza Beoulve-22.35%
Shulk-22.27%
Master Chief-22.14%
Master Hand-22.05%
Isaac-21.98%
Metal Sonic-21.85%
Chris Redfield-21.76%
Velvet Crowe-21.73%
Shepard-21.53%
Nathan Drake-21.52%
Lightning-21.52%
Ezio-21.15%
King K. Rool-21.00%
Geno-20.77%
Ellie-20.48%
Lloyd Irving-20.32%
Ryo Hazuki-20.23%
Claire Redfield-20.08%
Monika-20.03%
Riku-19.93%
Aqua-19.17%
Shantae-19.03%
Guile-18.83%
Joel-18.79%
Noctis-18.73%
Joker-18.64%
Kazuma Kiryu-18.40%
Primrose-18.35%
Metal Man-18.12%
Cuphead-17.79%
D. Va-17.47%
Yu Narukami-17.33%
Dragonborn-17.25%
Miles Edgeworth-16.98%
Aya Brea-16.94%
James Sunderland-16.93%
Gordon Freeman-16.72%
Neptune-16.45%
Aloy-16.44%
John Marston-16.06%
Godot-15.99%
Estelle Bright-15.55%
Neku Sakuraba-15.37%
Sans-15.35%
Hat Kid-15.17%
Isabelle-14.94%
Quiet-13.76%
Cayde-6-13.73%
Goro Majima-13.72%
Victor Sullivan-13.70%
Monokuma-13.66%
Chloe Price-11.11%
Draven-7.41%

Sorry about the formatting, I need to get to bed. Not that Sephiroth and Zelda have two versions, one in the main bracket and one in the legends bracket.
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KamikazePotato posted...

Zelda was adjusted via her projected results against Aeris, Ramza, and Fox. I ignored the Link match and pretty much everything she had after Snake because she got way stronger after that match.

Sonic's division wasn't adjusted lower than normal. Sonic and Auron just did consistently bad. Sub-Zero (who was one of the constants I used) didn't end up too far away from where he usually is, so I think it turned out okay.

The other ones took a lot more adjusting than I have time to talk about. It wasn't as simple as 'Mario through Cloud' because a lot of the Legends matches were this gaping pit of bandwagons, revenge votes, SFF, and non-transitive results.

I disagree about Sonic and Auron being consistently bad, but I'm sorry for getting all of that stuff wrong. I would love to see exactly what all of your adjustments are. I know your basis for Zelda's adjustment was her division, but I thought you used Zelda's score on Link because it conveniently corresponded well with the placement of Fox/Ramza/Aeris. Guess I was wrong about that.
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Haste_2 posted...

Ganondorf (44% on Mega Man)

I would probably put Ganondorf at 45% on Mega Man. 44% on Mega Man means that Ganondorf is weaker than Yoshi, and I would never pull the trigger on Yoshi in a Ganondorf/Yoshi match. I would probably take Bowser over Ganondorf, but not Yoshi.
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