Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1306

(+) Yeah! (+)

Ytterbicide posted...

There was still a lot of resistance against Undertale beating Fallout 3, which did really well in 2010

Those people weren't paying attention to Draven imo. I instantly called the contest for Undertale when it made the comeback and I'd imagine I was far from the only one
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Lopen posted...

Ytterbicide posted...

There was still a lot of resistance against Undertale beating Fallout 3, which did really well in 2010

Those people weren't paying attention to Draven imo. I instantly called the contest for Undertale when it made the comeback and I'd imagine I was far from the only one

Fair 'nough. I didn't really track who was saying what about Undertale/Fellout
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Thinking about Kirby... We'll he be able to SFF Bowser? I mean, could we even see as far as a 60-40 win? (You know, Smash hero and all...)
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Kirby will 60-40 him and it won't be through SFF.

Believe.
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In addition to waifu factor, is cartoony factor a thing?

Characters like Tails and Crash have done well. Id say it was more anti-Western factor, but Crash is a western character.

Is it maybe that cartoony characters trigger nostalgia more than badass ones?

And maybe new cartoony characters imprint faster on GameFAQs age users than badass ones?

Lopen posted...

Ytterbicide posted...

There was still a lot of resistance against Undertale beating Fallout 3, which did really well in 2010

Those people weren't paying attention to Draven imo. I instantly called the contest for Undertale when it made the comeback and I'd imagine I was far from the only one

Yeah, it was the same exact argument people used against Draven after Round 1. Weakness of first opponent (well, Draven's first opponents were genuinely weak; Undertale's was just an anti-vote magnet) combined with magnitude of rally required just to overcome said weak opponent. That said, Ytter's not wrong either. There were definitely reasons to think that Undertale could be stopped. Fallout 3 had been a very strong performer in GotD and Fallout 4 had just been released. Under more natural circumstances, it might've actually threatened to pull an upset of its own in Round 3.

And I would argue that even after Round 2, we didn't permanently lose hope. Melee was doing a lot of rallying too.
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Lopen posted...

Kirby will 60-40 him and it won't be through SFF.

Believe.

If hes worth 60+ on Bowser. He surely has to have a shot at upsetting Megaman?
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Lopen posted...

Kirby will 60-40 him and it won't be through SFF.

Believe.

I believe.
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snake_5036 posted...

there was also literally pokemon in undertale's way

Oh yeah yeah, I remember that.

I actually dont think it was unreasonable to think Pokemonz could win. Pokefear and all that.

The notion wss that a rallyable entry might be able to withstand a rally.

Was there people who thought Melee might have a chance to beat Undertale? That seems like it probably would have been wishful thinking after it beat RBY, but I dont know what I thought then, or what the consensus was.

Bowser is a fraud so if it happens maybe maybe not
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Let's not rewrite the past, plenty of people believed the rallies could be stopped.
For Draven, everyone expected MMX and Ryu would defeat Draven before the match.
And if people had no hope, Link would never have done that well , and Draven wouldn't have needed a sticky to finish off Snake.

And in the 2015 contest, it was the same, people expected Fallout to defeat Undertale;
After Fallout lost, according to a poll back then, 74% thought it could be beaten (and at that point, Melee hadn't rallied yet).
At one point during the Pokemon match, everyone called Undertale dead.
And of course, people called Undertale dead when Melee took the lead for 3 updates. (that was a ridiculous overreaction though).
For the OOT final however, hope was truly dead.

Averia posted...

Let's not rewrite the past, plenty of people believed the rallies could be stopped.
For Draven, everyone expected MMX and Ryu would defeat Draven before the match.
And if people had no hope, Link would never have done that well , and Draven wouldn't have needed a sticky to finish off Snake.

And in the 2015 contest, it was the same, people expected Fallout to defeat Undertale;
After Fallout lost, according to a poll back then, 74% thought it could be beaten (and at that point, Melee hadn't rallied yet).
At one point during the Pokemon match, everyone called Undertale dead.
And of course, people called Undertale dead when Melee took the lead for 3 updates. (that was a ridiculous overreaction though).
For the OOT final however, hope was truly dead.

The Melee match was the only match undertale had a shot at losing. Melees rallying didn't last long enough otherwise Undertale was toast.
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Averia posted...

For Draven, everyone expected MMX and Ryu would defeat Draven before the match.

I agree with this. I said after round 2. Anyone who seriously believed in the field vs Draven after that massacre in round 2 were just being optimistic or delusional though.

Undertale, if you paid attention to Draven you knew it was over the moment it escaped round 1. Was it fun to root against? Maybe for some. For many of us it was just "okay whatever"

L-Block always looked just weak enough to humor it losing to the next challenge though.
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Yuri_LowelI posted...

Averia posted...

Let's not rewrite the past, plenty of people believed the rallies could be stopped.
For Draven, everyone expected MMX and Ryu would defeat Draven before the match.
And if people had no hope, Link would never have done that well , and Draven wouldn't have needed a sticky to finish off Snake.

And in the 2015 contest, it was the same, people expected Fallout to defeat Undertale;
After Fallout lost, according to a poll back then, 74% thought it could be beaten (and at that point, Melee hadn't rallied yet).
At one point during the Pokemon match, everyone called Undertale dead.
And of course, people called Undertale dead when Melee took the lead for 3 updates. (that was a ridiculous overreaction though).
For the OOT final however, hope was truly dead.

The Melee match was the only match undertale had a shot at losing. Melees rallying didn't last long enough otherwise Undertale was toast.

Pokemon had a better chance I think. Undertale started really really late against Pokemon.
Against Melee, the rally was in full swing from the beginning which mean every Melee increase was matched by an Undertale increase. Melee couldn't reach Undertale's ceiling so the only hope would have been if it started too late.

creativename posted...

Was there people who thought Melee might have a chance to beat Undertale?

They did, but they also specified that Melee would have to hold off until just before the poll closed to have a chance, because Undertale always started to go insane if anything took a lead on it.
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Match CXV: (9) Pokemon Trainer Red vs. (3) Alucard

Current Contest Performance

Pokemon Trainer Red
Defeated Neptune, 75.32% - 24.68%
Defeated Sora, 50.90% - 49.10%
Defeated Big Boss, 52.18% - 47.82%

Alucard
Defeated Princess Peach, 56.81% - 43.19%
Defeated Yuna, 59.62% - 40.38%
Defeated Kefka, 59.44% - 40.56%

Analysis

This division sure wrecked my bracket. Neither of my division finalists made it here. Overall, I feel Pokemon Trainer Red has benefitted from his bracket placement. Both Kingdom Hearts and Metal Gear have not looked great this contest meaning Red was able to take advantage of the situation. Alucard on the other hand, has had two rounds where he has almost broke 60% against Yuna and Kefka, both impressive results on his part.

Does that mean Alucard is going to win? Not necessarily. Both Sora and Big Boss were considered to be stronger than Alucard and I am not entirely convinced that they have dropped that badly to make Alucard the heavy favourite. Meanwhile, Final Fantasy X hasnt exactly looked great, though at worst it appears to be a slight drop while Kefka is a bit of a wildcard. I am going to back Red in this match, but Alucard does have every reason to win this division.

charmander6000s Bracket: Big Boss > Kefka

charmander6000s Prediction: Pokemon Trainer Red wins, 52.53% - 47.47%




Match CXVI: (4) Bowser vs. (2) Kirby

Current Contest Performance

Bowser
Defeat Gordon Freeman, 77.39% - 22.61%
Defeated Charizard, 56.55% - 43.45%
Defeated 2B, 58.19% - 41.81%

Kirby
Defeated Guile, 74.54% - 25.46%
Defeated Isaac, 70.29% - 29.71%
Defeated Phoenix Wright, 68.31% - 31.69%

Analysis

Im definitely not the only person that was disappointed by Bowsers performance last round, though I think we have been a bit too harsh. Firstly, 2B is a new character so we dont really know her strength and while new characters have been flopping this contest, she was going to be an exception given how well she and her game have performed in polls. Her performance against Ness suggested she would be a bit weaker, but with Super Smash Bros. Ultimate boosting lower tier Nintendo characters Ness had every reason to be stronger, as did his first-round opponent, Shadow with the way Sonic characters have performed.

Bowsers relatively poor performance was also paired up with Kirbys smashing of Phoenix Wright. Personally, I feel Phoenix Wright is an honorary Nintendo character so there may have been a bit of SFF. Additionally, Kirby only slightly overperformed as Phoenix Wright isnt that strong despite what this board believes.

I still have faith in Bowser, his performance against Charizard was decent and I dont see him dropping in strength in any significant manner when other Pokemon characters have held up well if you ignore the people that thought they were Noble Nine breakers. Kirby does have Super Smash Bros. Ultimate hype though.

charmander6000s Bracket: Bowser > Kirby

charmander6000s Prediction: Bowser wins, 51.10% - 48.90%
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davidponte posted...

Lopen posted...

Kirby will 60-40 him and it won't be through SFF.

Believe.

I believe.

https://imgur.com/nS1kAYC
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Pretty sure Alucard and Kirby are the heavy favorites.
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Also thinking back about the Draven rally, it's impressive how it happened in a way that maximize the salt and false hopes.

Round 1 : small win that let you think he dies next round
Round 2 : overwhelming win that makes everyone give up and complain
Round 3 : give so much false hope, let the victory be in sight but never actually let reach it, add controversy, ddos accusations and the possibility of a Link win without Shepard
Round 4 : rallies are forbidden fake out
Round 5 : Lol World pushing rally topic down, Draven slowly dying.... just kidding have a sticky.

Undertale mostly stuck to the same pattern (be behind, wait, Underdog comeback !), until the last matches.

Safer_777 posted...

Pretty sure Alucard and Kirby are the heavy favorites.

Charmander with the upset picks

Personally I have Bowser as well but I don't believe in him
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I don't feel great about Alucard's chances, but hopefully that's just PokeFEAR
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Well Red might get a small, minor, extremely tiny boost from Let's Go
So if it's a close match it might matter
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Alucard is going to crush Red. Expecting 56%.
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KamikazePotato posted...

Alucard is going to crush Red. Expecting 56%.

Peach > Red?
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Peach would already easily beat Kefka and Yuna, so why not?
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So I just looked up this whole Bowsette meme and... It wasn't something disturbing at all. But I don't see that as any (significant) help either.
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@Advokaiser Yeah I have seen that too. The Internet is a scary place.
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Can't wait for people to hentai rally Bowsette only for it to backfire because Kirby's so great with his mouth
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I have no idea on today's matches. Gut says Red and Bowser but not sure I want to risk it in the Oracle as seems the majority are all going the other way

Despite whatever stats and history say I feel like theres a 0% chance Red loses this. No idea on Bowser/Kirby

Lopen posted...

Averia posted...

For Draven, everyone expected MMX and Ryu would defeat Draven before the match.

I agree with this. I said after round 2. Anyone who seriously believed in the field vs Draven after that massacre in round 2 were just being optimistic or delusional though.

Undertale, if you paid attention to Draven you knew it was over the moment it escaped round 1. Was it fun to root against? Maybe for some. For many of us it was just "okay whatever"

L-Block always looked just weak enough to humor it losing to the next challenge though.

I dont agree with this at all.

Firstly youre ignoring the Reddit mod factor. Those guys are just individuals, and unpredictable. One mod making a certain decision can sabotage the rally.

Theres also the Reddit upvote algorithm factor, and the competing threads factor. While its extremely likely a successful Reddit rally will be repeated in future rounds, its not entirely guaranteed. Theres definitely a random, unpredictable element to it.

Also Link did in fact look like he was capable of beating Draven. The downtime not only killed his best time, but demoralized his supporters and gave morale to Draven supporters.

I think it was reasonable to believe RBY and Melee could beat Undertale. Looking back it wouldve been a minor miracle, but at the time it wasnt totally insane.

Uh how weird
Super Mario 64 did better against Undertale than Pokemon RB did?
Somehow I forgot this match even happened
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It rolled over and did nothing.

That's why Undertale was going to win, it did just enough to win.
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Yeah. Mario 64 made no attempt to win so it ended up with a strong performance against Undertale.
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charmander6000 posted...

That's why Undertale was going to win, it did just enough to win.

Somehow. Yet everyone thinks I'm crazy when I call it suspicious.
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oh wow alucard
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Alucard making his division look like a joke
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Hopefully this is Bowser having brackets
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Alucard...
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Red is getting his doors blown off with this board vote already.
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Lopen posted...

charmander6000 posted...

That's why Undertale was going to win, it did just enough to win.

Somehow. Yet everyone thinks I'm crazy when I call it suspicious.

Rallyers work harder when they see a need.

Sora is the ultimate fraud
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Time for people to hentai rally for Bowsette
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Good lord Alucard. He's embarrassing this entire division.
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if aloy and alucard switched divisions peach would've smashed this division lol
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Lopen posted...

charmander6000 posted...

That's why Undertale was going to win, it did just enough to win.

Somehow. Yet everyone thinks I'm crazy when I call it suspicious.

I was of the belief that Undertale ralliers were lurking the stats thread and creative's site. Anything that looked to be trouble for Undertale resulted in an almost immediate response.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

if aloy and alucard switched divisions peach would've smashed this division lol

All those "oh, did I win?" memes that we missed...
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also peach and zelda both getting massive icon boosts makes sense
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Alucard board vote is disgusting
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finally

FINALLY

Castlevania gets some fucking respect on this site, after all these years. Even if Alucard loses, doing this well against Smash + Pokemon is good
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