Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1306

(+) Yeah! (+)

Bowser's winning pretty handily in the UK so I'm not expecting that to continue for much longer
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Lopen posted...

creativename posted...

IIRC it was a Mario crew boost. Did other Nintendo characters boost...?

Kirby vs Tidus was thought to be somewhat debatable and Kirby obliterated him. I'd argue Ganondorf and Zelda also outdid expectations

I dont trust Tidus at all.

The Mario and Zelda teams should also be somewhat distinct from Samus.

I really dont buy that Samus was stronger in 2K5 whatsoever.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I am not a republican.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/261-politics/77206531

I don't know you well, but you seem to care a lot more about the personalities behind the politicians than their actual policies
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also Red is winning handily in Europe

that's kind of surprising
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BOWSER I knew there was something off about Kirby

looks like he's still the King of Awesome after all
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Damn, been on the leaderboard for most of the contest, but I have Kirby over Bowser AND Crono, so my bracket is dead now.

Oh well.

LeonhartFour posted...

looks like he's still the King of Awesome after all

Yes! Bowser winning matches is one of those weird contest things I always enjoy. I dont know why, but Bowser specifically.

Speaking of which, I may have missed some of the more stat based discussion, but what does this say about how the other characters fall? Anyone stand out? Actually, I guess 2B is kind of crazy, yeah?

heroicmario posted...

Speaking of which, I may have missed some of the more stat based discussion, but what does this say about how the other characters fall? Anyone stand out? Actually, I guess 2B is kind of crazy, yeah?

the main surprising thing is that it makes Ike look really bad
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Ike did barely defeat Proto Man and got 55% on Dr. Robotnik, he wasn't much above the fodderline.
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Chris Redfield is currently projected to get about 63% against Cayde.

I trust that Kirby/Phoenix match less and less the more analysis I do.
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sure but these results would suggest he's well below the fodder line
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Ike should be a lot stronger though- Fire Emblem is on the rise. This Kirby result simply doesn't make sense. There has to be some form of SSF involved here.
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creativename posted...

I really dont buy that Samus was stronger in 2K5 whatsoever.

One other thing to consider is Chief getting 39% on Crono vs Samus's 70% on Frog. According to 2004 stats Chief almost perfectly lines up with his expected % from 2004 but Frog underperforms by 8% on what you'd expect on the 2004 stats, and that 2005 Master Chief is projected to 60-40 2005 Frog. Chief probably boosted a little between 04 and 05, and Frog was a bit overrated in 04, surely, but that's a bit much.

To me that Frog match has always been suspicious and I suspect part of it may be that there was a refusal to accept the idea that Samus may have boosted cause she lost to Mario
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Hbthebattle posted...

Ike should be a lot stronger though- Fire Emblem is on the rise. This Kirby result simply doesn't make sense. There has to be some form of SSF involved here.

Good like finding a legal copy of Fire Emblem Radiance/Radiant Dawn at a decent price on a modern system
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People are really into modern Fire Emblem games, but it doesnt mean the older FE games, especially when not readily available, should necessarily benefit from that. Ike is more of a Smash character than FE, as far as GameFAQs is concerned I would think.

I wouldn't be surprised if there was some Kirby/Phoenix Wright SFF. I already mentioned that Phoenix Wright is essentially honorary Nintendo in my analysis for the match.
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NowItsAngeTime posted...

Hbthebattle posted...

Ike should be a lot stronger though- Fire Emblem is on the rise. This Kirby result simply doesn't make sense. There has to be some form of SSF involved here.

Good like finding a legal copy of Fire Emblem Radiance/Radiant Dawn at a decent price on a modern system

Ike is still the popular character among the FE fanbase- including the Heroes ones, who make up the bulk of it now.
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charmander6000 posted...

Ike did barely defeat Proto Man and got 55% on Dr. Robotnik, he wasn't much above the fodderline.

Proto Man wasn't far below Ness back in 2010. His result against Ike in 2013 was almost exactly what the stats predicted.

Ness and Ike have had several contests so far where they performed very similarly. Phoenix Wright beat Marth cleanly and went even with Ike, and Marth has had good results too. There is no prior contest result that justifies just how badly Ike and Phoenix are going to look in the stats when all this shakes out.
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KamikazePotato posted...

charmander6000 posted...

Ike did barely defeat Proto Man and got 55% on Dr. Robotnik, he wasn't much above the fodderline.

Proto Man wasn't far below Ness back in 2010. His result against Ike in 2013 was almost exactly what the stats predicted.

Ness and Ike have had several contests so far where they performed very similarly. Phoenix Wright beat Marth cleanly and went even with Ike, and Marth has had good results too. There is no prior contest result that justifies just how badly Ike and Phoenix are going to look in the stats when all this shakes out.

And it's not like Ike and Phoenix have any reason to drop- the opposite is more likely true.
Something's weird about this matchup, there has to be some sort of SSF involved.
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charmander6000 posted...

I wouldn't be surprised if there was some Kirby/Phoenix Wright SFF. I already mentioned that Phoenix Wright is essentially honorary Nintendo in my analysis for the match.

I kind of thought about this as well. Phoenix is going to have a more loyal set of fans, but I would imagine he experiences a lot of crossover with Nintendo fans at large. I know thats true for me, at least, haha.

To put this in perspective: using 2013 stats, Ike is currently projected to go about even with Prinny, a character he got 62.5% on back in 2010.
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I doubt Phoenix Wright breaks 40% on Kirby, pre-SFF
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Thankfully, for the stats to 'make sense', he only needs 39%!
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KamikazePotato posted...

To put this in perspective: using 2013 stats, Ike is currently projected to go about even with Prinny, a character he got 62.5% on back in 2010.

It is a shame that Prinny's 2013 appearance was as a 27-seed. He could've done damage in the Contest of Rallies, because he's funny and could've caught a joke trend.
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you guys gotta stop letting Tsunami make topics
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Dracula needs to make a comeback next contest.
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SwiftyDC posted...

Dracula needs to make a comeback next contest.

I've been suggesting something similar. We need to have more characters that originated in other media. Geralt proved that they're viable.
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Lopen posted...

creativename posted...

I really dont buy that Samus was stronger in 2K5 whatsoever.

One other thing to consider is Chief getting 39% on Crono vs Samus's 70% on Frog. According to 2004 stats Chief almost perfectly lines up with his expected % from 2004 but Frog underperforms by 8% on what you'd expect on the 2004 stats, and that 2005 Master Chief is projected to 60-40 2005 Frog. Chief probably boosted a little between 04 and 05, and Frog was a bit overrated in 04, surely, but that's a bit much.

To me that Frog match has always been suspicious and I suspect part of it may be that there was a refusal to accept the idea that Samus may have boosted cause she lost to Mario

Well that performance on Frog would imply she boosted to almost Link levels if you take it seriously. Considering Frog struggled with Riku, I dont think it means much.

He also did even worse against her twice in 2K7 4-ways, and barely scraped by Axel. I think its obvious Frog wasnt the same in those years. 2K4 was a magical year for him, everything lined up for him from facing choker anti-vote magnet Chief to Solid Shit. Seemed like a possible bandwagon effect to me. It was also the year Crono handily beat Mario.

I really just cant remotely buy this idea Samus boosted in 2K5.

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

SwiftyDC posted...

Dracula needs to make a comeback next contest.

I've been suggesting something similar. We need to have more characters that originated in other media. Geralt proved that they're viable.

Certain characters would certainly be viable, though Geralt is poor example of that.

Nobody knows him from the novels. He gets all his strength from his games.

I mean Samus boosting in 2K5 is functionally worthless when you think about it, because she gets SFFed by almost everyone above her anyway.

It just means

- She'd come closer to Cloud, maybe beat Sephiroth
- She'd beat people she'd normally beat more easily

If you give her the same boost Mario got she gets to like 45 or 46% on Link-- which is as said a mostly irrelevant stat because Link just SFFs her anyway, Mario just SFFs her anyway, and she beats everyone else. Maybe Samus vs Cloud is a juicy matchup in 2005. I'm not completely certain that's not true.
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Eh, Samus would have to boost pretty massively to be competitive with Cloud in 2005 since he 60/40'd her the year before and actually took a lead on Link in their match before the day vote overwhelmed him. The FFVII collapse was still a few years away.

also Cloud still beat her pretty effortlessly in 2007
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KamikazePotato posted...

To put this in perspective: using 2013 stats, Ike is currently projected to go about even with Prinny, a character he got 62.5% on back in 2010.

To be fair, Prinny himself is probably overrated in the 2013 stats due to facing Cloud.

LeonhartFour posted...

also Red is winning handily in Europe

that's kind of surprising

I don't really find that surprising. Regardless of SotN being a primary PlayStation release, I don't think Castlevania has ever been much of a presence there.

creativename posted...

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

SwiftyDC posted...

Dracula needs to make a comeback next contest.

I've been suggesting something similar. We need to have more characters that originated in other media. Geralt proved that they're viable.

Certain characters would certainly be viable, though Geralt is poor example of that.

Nobody knows him from the novels. He gets all his strength from his games.

Oh, I agree completely, but he's still set the precedent for a character that wasn't video-game first doing well. I suggested earlier that we use "successful games", which is to say, something we've put into a Games Contest, to determine which non-video game characters are allowed in before opening it up completely. So any Disney character to be in KH or KH2; the Marvel half of MvC2; The Simpsons; Batman and whichever of his villains were in Arkham Asylum or Arkham City... probably some others I can't think of right now. Do KotOR or Battlefront have any characters originating in the movies or even the books?
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yeah Bowser's starting to take off with his percentage again

I guess Europe is wide awake
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LeonhartFour posted...

also Cloud still beat her pretty effortlessly in 2007

I'm not sure I put much stock in her 2007 meetings with Cloud. We've seen Mega Man basically act like a Nintendo character many times before. Heck it's generally accepted Samus SFFed Mega Man in that match, which means Samus was LFFed. And of course the next round Link just blew her back by SFFing her.
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TsunamiXXVIII posted...

creativename posted...

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

SwiftyDC posted...

Dracula needs to make a comeback next contest.

I've been suggesting something similar. We need to have more characters that originated in other media. Geralt proved that they're viable.

Certain characters would certainly be viable, though Geralt is poor example of that.

Nobody knows him from the novels. He gets all his strength from his games.

Oh, I agree completely, but he's still set the precedent for a character that wasn't video-game first doing well. I suggested earlier that we use "successful games", which is to say, something we've put into a Games Contest, to determine which non-video game characters are allowed in before opening it up completely. So any Disney character to be in KH or KH2; the Marvel half of MvC2; The Simpsons; Batman and whichever of his villains were in Arkham Asylum or Arkham City... probably some others I can't think of right now. Do KotOR or Battlefront have any characters originating in the movies or even the books?

While its an interesting idea, I do not like it. Way too many of the most powerful characters would be excluded.

Has Vader been in any contest games? I wouldve had Batman and him as my top two fictionals back in the day. Its not much of a contest if guys like Vader are excluded. I dont know if Yoda, Luke, Han have been in any contest games either.

I dont think any LOTR game has been in a contest either. Has Superman?

Not to mention the nomination process would require actual thought from users LOL. Doesnt seem very practical.

I would like to see a fictionals contest, though I dont have nearly as much faith in the non-game characters as I did back in the day, when this site wasnt so insular and casuals actually came here.

Lopen posted...

I mean Samus boosting in 2K5 is functionally worthless when you think about it, because she gets SFFed by almost everyone above her anyway.

It just means

- She'd come closer to Cloud, maybe beat Sephiroth
- She'd beat people she'd normally beat more easily

If you give her the same boost Mario got she gets to like 45 or 46% on Link-- which is as said a mostly irrelevant stat because Link just SFFs her anyway, Mario just SFFs her anyway, and she beats everyone else. Maybe Samus vs Cloud is a juicy matchup in 2005. I'm not completely certain that's not true.

I have no idea how you could claim such a massive boost is irrelevant. It would mean she does better against literally everybody, including Mario.

If you think she boosted, that means you 2K5 Mario would what - double 2K4 Samus? This seems absurd.

I think youre seriously stretching things if you say Samus boosted in 2K5.

2K5 Mario vs 2K4 Samus seems like, an irrelevant hypothetical to me. If you think Mario and Samus both boosted in 2K5 due to a Nintendo boost you can't have 2K4 Samus exist in the same space as 2K5 Mario.

At that point you're basically just asking if I think a character that got 60%'d by another character can be 66%'d by them the next year. Which I mean, sure, why not? Mario flipping the table on Crono was a pretty comparable shift to what you're suggesting there.

I'm not saying it's a given Samus boosted as much as Mario in 2k5, but the idea that she boosted a little isn't entirely out of line either, and if Samus 2k5 was a monster we'd never know because she never had matches that could let her flex her muscle (aside from the one with Frog where you could argue there's evidence she did but it was discarded to make the numbers fit better)

Anyway I agree with you that Mario vs Samus 2k4 is probably a bit closer than 2k5. But I think when you're at the point where you're trying to argue that a 60-40 Mario turned into a victory for Samus over the course of a year as something that's plausible enough to be called even a toss up that you've probably gone a bit too far down the rabbit hole of speculation. And I would say 2k4 being 60-40 just like 2k5 was is significantly more likely than Samus winning if I had to choose one. As I said I think Mario > Samus 55-45 makes the most sense to me internally but you just really can't know for sure.
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Also I would say this very match is evidence that strength is not necessarily directly related to ability to SFF.

In 2k5 most would agree Bowser was likely stronger than Bowser is now, based on the numbers he was putting up on dudes in 2k5 being monster vs somewhat pedestrian this year

Similarly, most would agree Kirby this year looks stronger than 2k5 Kirby, based on the fact that he'd been looking stronger in the past few contests he's had and the blowouts he's dished out this time. Yet Bowser is winning by more this time around? Why?

So saying Mario's strength going up means he can SFF better? Not necessarily. Honestly if I had to guess I would guess that ability to SFF is mostly driven by vote totals. We seem to get more like minded/homogeneous results the lower vote totals get. 2k4 had slightly lower vote totals than 2k5 so SFF would be slightly stronger there? But that's just a guess. I really couldn't tell you.
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Lopen posted...

Honestly if I had to guess I would guess that ability to SFF is mostly driven by vote totals. We seem to get more like minded/homogeneous results the lower vote totals get. 2k4 had slightly lower vote totals than 2k5 so SFF would be slightly stronger there? But that's just a guess. I really couldn't tell you.

We'll find out if this theory holds up once we get to the Legends and Loser Bracket since that will have some possible SFF matches. Link/Ganondorf being the first one, although I have a hard time seeing Link outdo his 2004 result by even more in this contest. Link already has some anti-voters that could hold him back from doing even higher than their 2004 match.

Mario/Samus and Link/Mario are 2 other possible matches we could see later in the contest. We could even see both Mario/Sephiroth and Samus/Sephiroth which can be used to adjust for SFF in the Mario/Samus match.
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Can anyone explain the HIERARCHY to me
I can understand why it would cause SFF, and Bowser beating Kirby worse than he should, but I don't understand how it would explain "Kirby>Bowser, unless it's a direct match between them, then it's Bowser>Kirby"
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So I woke up. Nothing really changed since last night that I was at the start of the match. I think they got closer in percentage though. Or not. Still nice performances here.
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Nanis23 posted...

Can anyone explain the HIERARCHY to me
I can understand why it would cause SFF, and Bowser beating Kirby worse than he should, but I don't understand how it would explain "Kirby>Bowser, unless it's a direct match between them, then it's Bowser>Kirby"

Nintendo fans care more about Mario games than Kirby games.

So they are happy to vote Kirby over things from other series, but put him against core Nintendo and he folds

Guess that makes sense.
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Obviously the hierarchy puts the King (of Awesome) on top.
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All part of the Plan.
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