Board 8 > VGMC 11: Coming Soon(tm) -- AMA

(+) Yeah! (+)

A lefty is fine too. (Thanks.)

: if you want to pass along that i got at least 18/20, feel free
: i wasn't sure on 9 and i had no idea on 14

we both questioned your definition of "easy" (despite him being able to identify Blue Oni Theme, its year, opponent, and number of votes)
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Haha. Yeah, you're right to question my take on 'easy mode'. I think I got too caught up on the whole idea that the more matches the tracks appeared in, the easier it would be, when I could probably do better on that front simply by picking tracks from more well-known sources! As it is even a 20-track sample strictly from the retirees list could be reasonably difficult to guess. And it's not like picking from well-known sources makes it trivially easy-- I'm pretty sure I wouldn't be able to guess every FF or Chrono track in the history of the contests from a 15-second clip, or even something like Midna's Lament. Maybe my next attempt will take that into consideration.

Given the tracklist if I was to take the quiz myself I'd probably have missed 5, 9, 10, 12, 14, 15, 17, and 18; maybe 11 and 13 as well. Several of these appeared in only one contest, making them pretty hard to recall (for me, at least). I guess that was part of the point-- I wanted to take a glance through some tracks that did very well and then never appeared again (other than the retirees, obviously).

Recalling that much detail about Blue Oni Theme is pretty incredible. To be expected from Ed, I guess.

How did you score, lefty?

Also, spoilers for tracks 9 and 14 if you want to check your work:

9: Dark Dreams Don't Die - Theme of D4 (VGMC9, 4th round exit)
14: Last Ranker - This Journey Without End (VGMC8, 4th round exit) (you could probably guess the composer from the clip! Definitely not the name of the track, though, yeah)

I scored "badly" - I recognized most of them, but I'm terrible when it comes to naming random tracks I haven't heard in years

and yes, he had the composer right
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ironically I only got 9 and 14

I knew the game on about 7 or 8 others at least

(also I should not do second guesses on relistens without looking at my original answers since I tend to un-get things. write down the right game the first time around, relisten and thing it was actually another one. thanks mr. follin.)

I just realized it's Seymour Battle that retired and not Seymour Theme, which makes me quite surprised the HD version of Seymour Battle made it in. I thought people were just completely averse to retirees and won't even consider another version of the same song.
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barreldragon88 posted...

I thought people were just completely averse to retirees and won't even consider another version of the same song.

Two versions of Bramble Blast/Stickerbush Symphony retired, so it can happen!
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OrangeCrush980 posted...

https://i.imgflip.com/1la2l8.jpg

The NCAA released it a couple hours ago, relax...

1 - got this one
2 - can't recall
3 - no clue
4 - can't recall
5 - don't know
6 - no clue
7 - don't know
8 - no clue
9 - no clue
10 - can't recall
11 - no clue
12 - got this one
13 - no clue
14 - don't know
15 - got this one
16 - can't recall
17 - don't know
18 - got this one
19 - no clue
20 - can't recall

4/20 knew the name
5/20 felt like I should have gotten
4/20 was never going to guess
7/20 don't think I've ever heard this in my life

I wasn't really around until VGMC5, though, so picking songs that missed retirement in years 1-4 are naturally going to fly under my radar.

LeonhartFour posted...

barreldragon88 posted...

I thought people were just completely averse to retirees and won't even consider another version of the same song.

Two versions of Bramble Blast/Stickerbush Symphony retired, so it can happen!

I find it ironic you are still checking posts for something you supposedly don't have any interest in.
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#2 is probably Tim Follin.

...that's all I got

azuarc posted...

OrangeCrush980 posted...

https://i.imgflip.com/1la2l8.jpg

The NCAA released it a couple hours ago, relax...

heh heh
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barreldragon88 posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

barreldragon88 posted...

I thought people were just completely averse to retirees and won't even consider another version of the same song.

Two versions of Bramble Blast/Stickerbush Symphony retired, so it can happen!

I find it ironic you are still checking posts for something you supposedly don't have any interest in.

Literally didn't click on the nomination topic and won't be voting this year, but I'm fine with talking about past contests or VGM in general. They are not mutually exclusive things.
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Once I give a thorough look at the entire list of entrants, I might decide this will be my final year in VGMC.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Mac Arrowny posted...

I would've voted Sunleth Waterscape but it's gotten into a contest before and failed.

Lots of retired songs failed the first time.

Yeah. I just made a list of every song that's been in at least 4 contests (including those making their 4th appearance this time), and there are 15 retirees--10 that retired on their 4th try, 2 on their 5th, and one each on their 6th, 7th, and 8th.

Of note: 5 of the 10 that retired on their 4th try were on their 4th consecutive try, with 3 of the remaining 5 making their 4th try in 5 years. Only The Last Duel and Small Two of Pieces, both of which first appeared in VGMC1 and finally retired in VGMC8, missed multiple years.

Also never missing a contest between first appearance and finally retiring: Godsibb, which first appeared in VGMC2 and finally retired on its fifth try in VGMC6.

Other odd facts:

Every song that appeared in VGMC 1-4 also appeared in VGMC5 (even including retirees--not one song retired in VGMC4 that had been in each of the first three). The same cannot be said about any other 4-year span and the year immediately following it, but oddly enough, every song that appeared in VGMC 6-9 and did not retire in VGMC9 is in this year's field. (8 songs total, half of which were missing from last year's field.)

6 songs appeared in each of the first six VGMCs, only half of which appeared in VGMC7. None of the three that did appear in VGMC7 are retired yet, but two of the three that didn't are (Zero-Two, which came back in VGMC8 and immediately retired, and Someday the Dream Will End, which also returned in VGMC8 but didn't retire until VGMC9).

The only two songs that appeared in every contest from VGMC 4 through VGMC 9 are the two songs that have appeared in all 11 contests; this is not true of any other 6-year span, and four of the other five have at least one song that has only appeared during those six contests. (Investigation ~ Cornered for 1-6; Electric Power Building for 2-7; Awakening ~Nurburgring Suite~ for 3-8, and Blue Radiance for 6-11; the only song besides TBIYTC and RFTMIS that was in every contest from 5-10 is Battle with Magus, which has been in every contest except VGMC4.)

Three songs have appeared in at least four contests without ever appearing in two consecutive contests. Ice Cap Zone Act 1 was in 3, 5, 7, and 9; Krook's March in 2, 6, 8, and 11; and Septette for the Dead Princess in 3, 5, 7, and 11. Two others also have three separate occasions of missing at least one contest between appearances, but also have appeared in consecutive contests before: Solstice Title Theme, which appeared in the first 2 contests as well as 6, 8, and 10, and Sky Tower, which appeared in 1, 3, 4, 7,and 10.

The only song to appear in consecutive contests on 3 separate occasions (which is to say, with at least one missed contest between the end of one streak and the start of the next) is Meaning of Birth, which appeared in VGMC 1-2, 5-6, and 8-9. If it fails to retire this year, J-E-N-O-V-A can join it by making the field next year, as it previously appeared in each of the first five contests except VGMC3.
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azuarc posted...

Just an update for the start of a new page...

Listened through mostly everything last night before bed, started to pick out some of the stronger songs for positioning. I placed maybe a quarter of the tracks. Assuming I haven't grossly mis-evaluated anything, that's actually the easier part. Positioning the middle tracks is a lot trickier, as is coming up with first round pairings. Inevitably, I will Ed Bellis you at some point, but I hope to minimize the number of songs that go out earlier than they objectively should.

Honestly not certain how much I'll get done today. I do have a few other things to turn my attention toward today, as well as several jobs later on.

That is a tough decision. I'm assuming that anything near the top of the "Top Unretired" list is automatically considered strong, except for the ones that got there on sheer attrition? I like the formula for "top unretired", by the way--number of appearances times average round squared, thereby putting stronger emphasis on the latter. I might tweak it slightly to find a way to break ties, but this is definitely good. An example of two that are considered tied: both Denshou no Shi -Verum- and YO-KAI Disco are making their fifth appearance, and both have averaged 2.5 over their first four, but the former is clearly getting stronger--1, 2, 3, 4, in that order--while the latter has made Round 2 in all four of its appearances but has never made round 4. At the very least, I'd consider the Round 4 appearance an advantage. Maybe a 2-point bonus for each R4 appearance and a 1-point bonus for each R3 appearance. In the example of 4 appearances adding up to 10, this would mean that 3/3/3/1 would still equal 4/3/2/1, but both would exceed 3/3/2/2 and fall short of 4/4/1/1.

...Although I suppose that some "recency factor" has to factor into it. After all, our two stalwarts, RFTMIS and TBIYTC, both have averaged 2.3 over their 10 previous appearances, but my proposition would have the former as the "stronger" one (3 4th-round appearances and 1 3rd-round appearance even though their "comparative record" is 6-3-1 in the latter's favor and 6-0-0 over the most recent 6 (the former's 4th-round appearances came in VGMC 1-3 and its 3rd-round appearance in VGMC4, which was the first time the latter reached R3; it's reached R4 once since then and R3 two other times.)
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But what I was trying to say before I had to cut things short was that it's tough to gauge the "strength" of a newcomer, especially since we did away with seeding and as such people withdraw nominations from things they legitimately want in, sometimes quite severely, if those things would be safe even without their votes; this means that there isn't much difference between the most-nominated song and one that was right on the bubble. (3/3 was the bubble, so it took 4 votes to get something definitively safe; a grand total of six songs managed to get to 5, and five of those were returners) But for returners, I'd assume that Blue Radiance, Id ~ Purpose, Nefertiti, Eleganza (Cthylla Stage), MARIA, Emil/Karma, Red Locus, goldenslaughterer, and Shrine of Solomon should probably be kept as far apart as possible--this newly reduced field only produces 8 retirees per year instead of 16, so at least one of those will have to fail to retire again, but it should probably be made possible for as many as 8 of those 9 to retire since they all have at least 3 past appearances, an average round of at least 3, and no first-round exits. (If I had to choose two to put together, it'd have to be Nefertiti and Blue Radiance, since they've each been in the competition 5 times and only reached round 4 once apiece, though they still maintain 3+ averages by combining for 0 first-round exits and 1 second-round exit.) To fill out the "2-seeds", probably go with Another Winter (5 appearances, no first-round exits, 1 4th-round appearance); In the Final (5 appearances, no first-round exits); Flying Clouds, Drifting Haze (only debuted two contests ago, but reached Round 4 in both of the last two); Denshou no Shi -Verum- (four appearances, exited in first round in debut but has gone one round further with each successive appearance); YO-KAI Disco (4 appearances, no first-round exits)...those five are the only ones that I'd definitely say "don't let them meet one of the previous nine until Round 4". For the others, I guess the best fits would actually be Battle with Magus and The Best Is Yet To Come, the former of which has made Round 2 of every contest since missing VGMC4 entirely and the latter of which has made Round 2 of every contest since VGMC4, though you could also consider J-E-N-O-V-A, which has a better average than both; I left it out because while it does have 4 prior appearances and a 2.75 average, it last appeared in VGMC5--and still has a more recent first-round exit than either of those two, since it went 1 and done in VGMC4.

3-seeds...we'll slot J-EN-O-V-A in there, along with RFTMIS (I know, it only still manages a 2+ average because it had a 3.75 average after VGMC4, but it's a mainstay--and besides, with just over half the field being newcomers, I'd try to make sure no pair of returners meets in Round 1--and newcomers trashing RFTMIS is a tradition.), Butterfly's Invitation (two appearances, 3.5 average), YOATI (only one prior appearance, but reached R4), Big Blue (same), Dr. Fetus' Castle (also same), Learning to Type-Pokémon Adventure Boss Battle (3 prior appearances, 2.67 average with one 4th-round appearance--I missed this because it's in the database under two different names, one for its VGMC 6 & 7 appearances and one for its VGMC 8 & 11 appearances), and I'll Face Myself (two appearances, 2.5 average)

4-seeds, we've got 6 songs with one prior apearance who reached R3, plus Fear Not This Night (2 appearances, R2 both times) and pick one of the others with a 2.0 average in 2 appearances (there are three who have 3, 1).
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5-seeds, start with the other two with 2.0 averages over two appearances, then add in six of the other seven with multiple appearances and at least one R2 appearance. 6-seeds, the last of them, plus the six returners with 1 appearance who left in R2 and one of the two with multiple first-round exits. The other is a 7-seed (preferably opposite the matching 6-seed) along with starting on returners with just a lone 1st-round exit.
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That's not a bad starting point. I'm basing positioning on more than strictly past performance, though, because some songs have seriously over- or under-performed before. GBL Goddess Temple is a great example. Although there's some bias here since I brought the track to the board, it lost really stupidly (IMO) in its first appearance by a single vote, to a song that got slaughtered in round 2. Because it was so low on the X-stats, it was slotted as fodder the next year, and put up a good fight but still lost. By outward appearance, its record is 1/1, but it's certain to be stronger than that record would indicate. Conversely, Soar and Location of Power have both made round 3 in the past, but I don't have much confidence for them to repeat. I seem to recall LoP emerged from a weak four-pack. I'm certainly not reckoning either to be the one to boss around its three closest neighbors.

Where's a list of the qualified songs? I looked on the google doc and maybe i missed it there

Mostly so i can feel sad none of the ones I wanted in made it.
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It's the tab called "The Field"

and I know you got at least one nom in because I can't say no to Atrocious Raid
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azuarc posted...

That's not a bad starting point. I'm basing positioning on more than strictly past performance, though, because some songs have seriously over- or under-performed before. GBL Goddess Temple is a great example. Although there's some bias here since I brought the track to the board, it lost really stupidly (IMO) in its first appearance by a single vote, to a song that got slaughtered in round 2. Because it was so low on the X-stats, it was slotted as fodder the next year, and put up a good fight but still lost. By outward appearance, its record is 1/1, but it's certain to be stronger than that record would indicate. Conversely, Soar and Location of Power have both made round 3 in the past, but I don't have much confidence for them to repeat. I seem to recall LoP emerged from a weak four-pack. I'm certainly not reckoning either to be the one to boss around its three closest neighbors.

Well, those things tend to sort themselves out.
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I stayed up late last night and finished my preliminary draft of the bracket. Now I just need to put it into bracketmaker, squint at it real hard to see what problems I created (like I almost put two Touhous against each other in R1,) and decide if I want to try to make fixes for the songs I initially underrated. If my dad's estate hadn't suddenly exploded with potential buyers for his ham radio equipment, leaving me answering e-mails literally all day since Sunday, I'd probably be done by now.

Tsunami do you know what a paragraph is
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Mmmm, ham radio
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If only it were as tasty as its name suggested. I assure you, it contains no pork products whatsoever. While that means it's safe for our Muslim friends to eat, it also means nobody would want to, either. =/

Running this thing sounds like a tonnnnn of work. I applaud you, azuarc.
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It both is and isn't. I picked a week that should have otherwise been free of commitments to be able to focus on the preliminary set-up, but unfortunately it turned into one of my busiest instead, which is why I'm just keeping everyone updated. I figure it'll cut down on the "we want the damn bracket" chants and also keep the thread going in the meanwhile.

It'll be fun to see Tsunami's reaction to the bracket and how closely (or not-so-closely?) his predictions match my layout.

we want the damn bracket

but not really because I'm traveling for a conference until Saturday.
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pyresword posted...

but not really because I'm traveling for a conference until Saturday.

Too bad. You will take your bracket and you will like it!

Probably tomorrow.

azuarc posted...

and you will like it!

*shakes magic 8-ball*

outcome doubtful

>_>
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Yeah, well, you have very particular needs. I'm not giving all the Falcom and Gust free wins to R4, where they can fight each other for retirement.

well of course

not all of them. just the important ones >_>
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if those temporary divisions on the sheet are accurate, Falcom sort of got screwed as a whole

I could see Gust getting a few retirees though
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Speaking generally, which Falcom songs would you expect to do well? (Besides Id Purpose, which makes R4 every year.)

If I'm reading that right, it looks like I have 2 doubles facing each other in the first round. Great.
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azuarc posted...

which Falcom songs would you expect to do well? (Besides Id Purpose

what
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th3l3fty posted...

azuarc posted...

which Falcom songs would you expect to do well? (Besides Id Purpose

what

Ys IX: Awakening
Trails of Fire Emblem
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Took me a second to even realize I labeled a Fire Emblem song as Falcom. They both start with an F and end with an M, okay?

azuarc posted...

Speaking generally, which Falcom songs would you expect to do well? (Besides Id Purpose, which makes R4 every year.)

The Red Locus
Blue Bird Lamentation 2nd Mix
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At least I'm not the only one. =)

I had a serious response planned but it seems that ship has sailed
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For anyone who managed to sneak a peek at the preliminary bracket, I made a few adjustments. Any song whose position was changed is in gold. At this exact second, I feel reasonably comfortable with what I have, but I'm sure I really brain-farted somewhere, so I'm going to wait until tomorrow to make it official. If anyone spots anything grievous, please send me a PM.

Because I'm bored and can't watch anime or play video games right now, I made a list of my favorite new discoveries from the contest this year. (Or at least I think these are all new discoveries) Even if many of these didn't make the contest and most of the rest will lose in round 1, I appreciated them at least!

1. Fear the Dark
2. Don't Speak her Name!
3. The Entire Shantae soundtrack (other than whatever appeared in prior contests)
4. Water Ruin
5. Zero
6. Into the Light
7. Ar-ciel-ar-manaf
8. Velvet's Theme
9. Yomitsu Hirasaka Corruption
10. Sea of Flasks

Discovering new music is probably the only thing or at least the main thing that keeps me in these contests, so I'm glad this at least delivered on that front.
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Sea of Flasks not making it in was probably my biggest disappointment. The fact that my favorite part is a full ~3 minutes in doesn't help.
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I finally got around to buying the first two Ultimate Ninja games, so I can review the whole series' soundtracks for future contests and whatnot

the first game is quite possibly the worst game I've ever seen from a completion standpoint

about 4000 Ultimate Jutsu videos
another... probably 1000 or so character animations that they like to call action figures
like 400 Ninja Info Cards
I don't even want to count how many voice clips
and about 50 soundtrack songs

are each crammed into one of three gacha machines, all of which only have about a 50/50 chance of resulting in an item even when you put in the maximum amount of in-game currency

The cheapest machine costs 100-1000 ryo, the second 200-2000. I don't know if the third is 300-3000 or even more since I haven't unlocked it yet apparently. However much it costs though, a vast majority of the items are in that one, it seems.

A single fight generally only nets you about 300-500 ryo. And a lot less if you don't win. So... yeah, looks like I won't be approaching the first game to check its soundtrack any time soon.

... The second game though throws that garbage system out the window and just lets you buy things like a reasonable game would. Conveniently the soundtrack is quite a bit better on the whole too. I'm a fan of this song right now. Gives off vague FF vibes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQPOHw_LchA

Okay I just checked and realised I exaggerated those numbers a lot

still, there are a total of 2352 items and they DO all cost a lot more than a single battle can get you on average.

the second game toned that aspect down a lot, to the point that there are barely even a tenth as many things to get. Plus the game gives crazy amounts of money for doing missions and also minigames. Especially minigames. There's this one where you run up a tree dodging obstacles and you get 15000 ryo for beating it, 30000 for doing that in 80 seconds or less (pretty easy honestly. that's leaving room for about two mistakes.)

dowolf posted...

The fact that my favorite part is a full ~3 minutes in doesn't help.

Yeah this is probably the song's biggest problem honestly. And it only constitutes like 20% of the actual song.
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https://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/75120003