Lurker > squexa

Sonic

KamikazePotato posted...

ME1 is absolutely more popular than ME3, and I don't think it's close.

It's pretty debatable and depends on whether you are with a hardcore RPG crowd or a casual fanbase. That aside, I really can't think of anything that fits the topic.

Mac Arrowny posted...

Depends how you define consensus I guess. Mass Effect comes close with 2 > 3 > 1 > Andromeda.

Yeah, this is the closest example (for gaming anyways) I can think of and even then there are rabid 1 fans out there, people who didn't care about 3's ending, etc.

Yeah, Activision doesn't have many possible buyers.

The FTC is literally dragging Meta to court right now to unwind its Instagram and WhatsApp acquisitions, so no way would Meta be making any new acquisitions this big now. Amazon's also been singled out by the FTC. In fact, Microsoft's the big tech company that's been least scrutinized by the FTC, which gives them the unique advantage in making this deal, but they'll also want to keep staying on the FTC's good side.

You should go all in on AVTI if you are entirely confident the FTC would look the other way, since the stock is trading at a 15% discount right now.

Corrik7 posted...

It's actually clear if you take it with context of his past statements of wanting gamepass on ps and Nintendo consoles imo.

It's his desire because his desire is to have gamepass on them. I think he even uses the same wording. That of course makes the ball in sonys court regarding it.

I can't find the interview I was looking for.

He certainly wants it but that doesn't mean he's implying here that CoD will be gone from PS5 unless Sony accepts Game Pass. Like I said, the situation is more than just console wars and right now, MS is more focused on placating the FTC and DOJ and ensuring that the deal can even pass in the first place. Biden and Lina Khan have been on a crusade to break up big tech since they took office so MS will be treading carefully here and keeping CoD multiplatform could be one of the concessions MS makes to get the deal passed.

Corrik7 posted...

He is clearly stating that he wants Gamepass on PS5 where they can have Call Of Duty. It has always been the intent of Microsoft to get them to allow gamepass onto their consoles.

His wording is ambiguous on purpose

pepper2012 posted...

Goty would easily be Elden Ring
if you mean what would a Nintendo based site vote for then obviously BotW2 would win

Neither game is out...

FFXVI is another wildcard too

It's still fairly ambiguous what Xbox's plan is since you can also interpret that as Xbox keeping CoD: Warzone on Playstation and while keeping mainline CoD exclusive on Xbox.

But like I stated earlier, the acquisition is way more than about "beating Sony". Gaining access to King, a major mobile company, and a large amount of exclusive content relative to Amazon, Google, etc is the bigger reason why MS went through with acquisition imo.

The main difference between the Zenimax and Activision Blizzard scenarios is that CoD is a way bigger deal than TES. We know this, MS knows this and the FTC and DOJ sure as hell know this. MS assuring that CoD will stay multiplat will placate the FTC (allowing the deal to go through in the first place) and upholding it will generate goodwill and reassurance for future acquisitions. The last thing MS wants is for the FTC to go after them like they are with Facebook right now.

So I can see MS going either way on this and it's not even a uncertainty the acquisition can go through. The markets are pricing around a 30% chance that the FTC or DOJ will block it.

Lightning Strikes posted...

Those numbers are from Nvidia who are effectively guessing. No hard source or even analyst estimates.

Lightning Strikes posted...

ModernnEarfare did not sell as well as Black Ops III or WWII. 15 million is probably right

I'm not following... Your claims seem more like guessing to me. Direct comments from Activision-Blizzard if you think Nvidia's numbers aren't credible:

https://www.gamespot.com/articles/call-of-duty-modern-warfare-is-now-the-best-selling-game-in-franchise-history-for-first-year/1100-6483986/

Modern Warfare is the best selling CoD in the first year. Doesn't confirm the 30 million figure from Nvidia of course, but seems more plausible than MW doing worse than WWII.

Lightning Strikes posted...

Gonna need a source on that as I seriously doubt it. Cold War was down pretty substantially from the preceding games and ModernnEarfare did not sell as well as Black Ops III or WWII. 15 million is probably right, less for Vanguard. The limited info we have is about 10 million worth of copies for 2020 but it will be less than that given other sources of income and more expensive editions. Definitely not 30 million copies numbers.

For reference Modern Warfare 3 sold 30 million and made the same amount in its first 3 days as Cold War did in 6 weeks. I would be floored if it was even close to that amount.

Idk know about Cold War but MW sold 30 million in a year.
https://www.thegamer.com/call-of-duty-modern-warfare-sells-30-million-units-says-nvidia/

I see MS's main target being Amazon/Google/Netflix/etc rather than Sony or Nintendo.

Amazon I can especially see making a big power play soon and buy up EA or Take Two.

Competitive multiplayer games continuing to decline:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2849-what-kind-of-multiplayer-gaming-do-you-most-enjoy
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6280-what-kind-of-multiplayer-gaming-do-you-most-enjoy
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7196-what-kind-of-multiplayer-gaming-do-you-most-enjoy
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8700-what-kind-of-multiplayer-gaming-do-you-most-enjoy

We're up to 23% of voters saying they don't like multiplayer games at all now, with co-op maintaining relative stability and competitive falling off a cliff. I suspect this is the main factor driving Melee's fall:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7577-what-is-the-best-all-time-super-smash-bros-game
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8438-what-is-the-best-all-time-super-smash-bros-game

Minor shift, but all 5 Smash games lost ground to people that don't play Smash.

Red XIII

P5 ~= Dark Souls and 2015 Dark Souls = 29% on ALttP and 43% on FFIV (through ALttP).

Obviously, 2020 Dark Souls is another beast though. Based on DS/MGSV (55% for DS in 2015 and 63% in 2020), if MGSV remained constant while the entirety of the shift was due to DS boosting, then P5/DS gets around 51-52% on FFIV.

So I'd say FFIX would be a bit too ambitious and FFIV and FFVIII would be better targets.

Another way to see it is BotW got 68% on ME2 in 2020 and MGS3 got 61% on ME2 in 2015. Assuming ME2 didn't randomly boost in strength, then BotW would get about 60% on MGS3 and I don't think MGS3 is that strong. In 2010, MM got 58% on it. In 2015, MGS3 got 52% on Bioshock, which only got 61% on SH2. Now there's very likely some rally spillover but even giving MGS3 an extra 5-6% would still put Bioshock only slightly below Persona 5/Dark Souls.

In 2020, BotW got 56% on Witcher 3 and with KP's rally adjustments, BotW would get 59% on Witcher 3 and around 62-63% on Skyrim. I'd say 59% is probably the lowest I can see BotW getting on SSBU (without SFF), since that'll set Spider-Man = DQXI and any lower would send Spider-Man into ME2/TLOU/GoW territory.

On the other hand, in 2015, WW got 63% on KOTOR and 46% on FFVI and through FFVI, would get 64% on Paper Mario TTYD. I see no reason why WW would have any issues beating MGS3 since WW = MGS3 would mean KOTOR and Paper Mario have fallen so much they'd be struggling to beat SH2 and only get 44% on Bioshock. In 2015, TP got 65% on Persona 4 and 43% on SM64. Even without using the P4 argument, TP and Bioshock both faced KH2 in 2010 and TP was worth 62% on Bioshock.

Either way, I think the newer games are being overrated. They haven't had any competition except against other newer games, whereas the 00s games "look bad" because they got put up against SNES/N64 games. It's way easier to look impressive delivering a beatdown on AC:O than it is going up against FFVI.

If I had to guess, I'd say using BotW as a base
- MM would be worth 47%
- WW would be worth around 44-45%
- TP would be worth around 43-44%
- Witcher 3/Smash Ultimate would be around 41-42%
- MGS3/MGS1 would be around 40%
- Skyrim would be around 37-38%

MP and FFX have too many other variables so I'm not delivering a verdict here, but I think they'll look pretty good against the new games although FFX could always shit the bed like usual.

KamikazePotato posted...

It looks fine if you put Spider-Man around Horizon's level.

If we just plug in Spider-Man = Horizon, then Ultimate is worth 64% on Horizon and since Horizon got 55% on Borderlands 2 in 2020, then Ultimate is worth 67% on Borderlands 2.

In 2015, MGS1 got 60% on Earthbound, which got 59% on Borderlands 2, meaning MGS is worth 67% on Borderlands 2.

This again gives us Ultimate = MGS1, the same we'd get projecting through RDR. You can blame some rally spillover in the MGS/EB match I guess, but I don't think there's much noticeable impact and the spillover was against MGS3 (and slightly for SotC in the SotC/RDR match) in the other match if anything.

You can surely just assume that P4G, RDR and Xenoblade all got boosted to make Ultimate look better, but then there's stuff like the 63% on Spiderman, which is not that great of a result either.

Lightning Strikes posted...

...
Breath of the Wild
The Witcher 3
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
Final Fantasy X
Metroid Prime
Skyrim
Twilight Princess
Wind Waker
Super Mario Galaxy
Resident Evil 4
...

I feel like Ultimate's strength is way overrated. In 2020, Ultimate couldn't even get 60% on Xenoblade, which tied P4G which barely beat RDR, meaning Ultimate is worth around 61-62% on RDR. That's a weak result considering in 2015, SotN got 62% on DKC2 which tied Xenoblade and SotC got 59% on RDR.

This puts Ultimate around the MGS1/SotN tier which is decent and maybe in the top 20-25 but a step or two below MP/FFX/WW/TP.

HaRRicH posted...

I'll wait for the next part of FF7R to flop before I consider taking MD over it. Even if it flopped on the level that Mass Efect 3 did though, Mass Effect 2 has remained strong and seemingly unphased by it

Even without part 2, 56% on GoT is still pretty lackluster though and should place 7R around ME2 in strength, unless you believe GoT is on par with TLOU1 (pre-TLOU2 shitstorm) or GoW and I don't see anywhere on the internet where that's the case. And 7R might not even end up as strong as the GotY polls would suggest, if XV is anything to go by.

MetalmindStats posted...

I don't even disagree with that, but I'm inclined to think it's an artifact of our bubble. These big-name, well-liked Sony exclusives always seem to be a much bigger deal among the general gaming public than here on B8, plus they're exactly the types of games that fit the GotY image voters tend to have in their heads. GameFAQs at large is probably somewhere between us and, say, IGN in that regard.

For what it's worth, using the 1:30 PM PT update for Dread/RE8, based on KP's 2020 X-Stats, and assuming RE8 = RE7:
* If Tsushima = Uncharted 4 (and for context, KP's stats put Uncharted 4 a bit ahead of RE7), FF7R gets ~43.12% on Metroid Dread
* If Tsushima = Spider-Man, FF7R gets ~49.24% on Metroid Dread
* If Tsushima = Horizon, FF7R gets ~50.6% on Metroid Dread

Dread = FFVIIR seems plausible to me. Remake's ending was pretty divisive and if Square goes completely off the rails in part 2, remake could end up even weaker.

GoT should be stronger.

I'd say it's somewhere in the ballpark of the other Sony first party games like Horizon and Spider-Man, whereas Village is, at best, a bit stronger than 7.

Safer_777 posted...

Damn it man. FF 7 was dominating but this site flourished with that FF 7 legendary FAQ Guide and well most people that came to this site were fans of FF 7 obviously.

Also I don't accept this games were simpler and costs were lower back then. Games are more complicated sure BUT they earn a TON more money because of DLC/microtransactions. Now when a game makes like 500.000.000 earnings we say well it is a good game and that makes sense. Imagine saying this like 20 years ago.

Also I prefer to play sequels and such faster. What I mean for example is Elder Scrolls 5 came out around 10 years ago. And we still have no info when the sequel will come out. And the series is extremely succesfull too! And don't tell me people like to wait 10 years to play a sequel! Everyone wants to play as soon as possible.

Also a COD game and Borderlands game won GOTY? Damn.

Not every game makes $500 million... Think of flops like Fallout 76, Mass Effect: Andromeda, Anthem, The Avengers etc. Those games likely costed their publishers tens of millions of dollars and lots of companies don't have that much cash to gamble. Some like Konami more or less called it quits on AAA games and only release annualized sports/party games with more consistent returns.

Everybody on the site already knows who Mario and Samus are and when you are that well-known and established, I don't think recent games have that much of an impact unless it's some kind of "reinterpretation" like Snake getting into Smash, causing him to be exposed to a Nintendo demographic that might not normally play MGS or Zelda getting BotW, which brought in fans beyond the traditional 3D Zelda formula. I just don't see Dread or SMO or SMO2 doing that and causing a significant impact on the Mario/Samus relationship.

Like I can still see Samus beating Mario next contest, but more because of continuations of trends that's favored her in 2018 like the SNES/Metroidvania boost or the female character boost than Dread having that much of an impact.

The Nintendo hierarchy works in mysterious ways (eg Bowser/Kirby) so it's not as simple as Samus getting Dread = she could definitely beat Mario now. She got almost nothing but junk games like Other M and Federation Force but she still somehow closed the gap in 2018.

FFXV
Beyond: Two Souls
INSIDE
Uncharted 1
TLoU1

SSHD being meh shouldn't be too surprising after how bad Groose and FFXV bombed.

RE8's closer to RE4 in vibe which is enough for me to believe its stronger on this site.

Demons Souls was last year. It'll be between SM3DW, SSHD, BDSP, Nier, ME Legendary and some other ones I'm forgetting.

BD2 being in this poll is kinda weird since I thought the game wasn't well received

Probably the weirdest thing to me about the list is how low MH is. Rise didn't even make it despite the crap ton of Switch games on here.

Zylothewolf posted...

Cool list. I dont understand what Japan sees in DQ2 tough.

There's an entire demographic of Japanese 40/50-somethings ojisans that grew up playing DQ on the Famicom and quit gaming (or became very casual) after they started working in the 90s. Most of them are probably voting for DQ3 or 4 but there's enough of them that DQ2 can squeeze on the list.

Yeah Im not trusting RE4 to beat a Square SNES JRG.

Dimitrescu > Jessie

That poll's asking favorite "right now" though, which I'd think would be different than "all time". Also 2013 was right after RE6 and DmC were released which was probably when Capcom was at an all time low.

I've been wondering how a "Best Studio Ever" contest would go. Obviously, Nintendo >>>> Squenix >>>> everything else, but after that could be more debatable. I'd think Capcom's #3.

Random Matchups:
Sega vs Konami
Intelligent Systems vs HAL Laboratory
Rare vs Retro Studios
Activision vs Level-5
CD Projekt Red vs Monolith Soft
Rockstar North vs Platinum Games
Game Freak vs FromSoft

I actually thought Undertale did pretty well in 2020 all things considered. Cements it as one of the strongest indie games on the site.