Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1368

(+) Yeah! (+)

KamikazePotato posted...

Not really. Let's Go P/E and Samus Returns are close to 1:1 remakes in many ways. The perspective shift from 2D to 3D alone makes FF7R a vastly different experience, and it also has voice acting, graphics that are way way more advanced, significantly expanded cutscenes, and a new battle system.

A lot of those differences in FF7R are common in remakes. Take Let's Go P/E as an example, the catching and battle mechanics of the games make it a vastly different experience and the graphics are more advanced. You don't even play as the same character and your rival is also different.

The big argument is the story differences and whether or not FF7R has crossed into retelling territory. There's definitely an expansion on the story so far, but is there enough retconned stuff for it to be a retelling?

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FFVIIR is a vastly different experience. I don't see any reason to exclude it because it won't operate as a mere FFVII proxy.

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Start Fox 64 and Star Fox would be eligible for the same contest despite 64 being a remake.

I do still think FF7R will be weaker once R2 comes out tho
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It's worth noting that Persona 4 Golden (clearly a more similar remake than FF7R) made GotD 2, while Super Street Fighter II Turbo (likewise) would have made BGE 2 alongside the original Street Fighter II without us add-replacing Mortal Kombat II in over it.

Also, I don't really see where 2020 has the strength in games this site cares about to get 7-10 entrants into even a contest with nominations beginning today. First off, it's absolutely important to consider that 2020 isn't brand-new anymore - it's older now than the similarly weak 2014 was circa BGE 3, a year which had a more reasonable 7 entrants of its own at the time. The shoo-ins, as far as I see it, are FF7R, Ghost of Tsushima (which was our actual GotY runner-up), Hades, and New Horizons. Everything else looks debatable at best, whether because it's a type of game we don't really care about (ex. 13 Sentinels, sort of Doom and Ori), because it's a type of game we should have cared about (ex. Cyberpunk, TLoU 2), or in Persona 5 Royal's case, because it's not hugely distinct from the original.

Speaking of new games, my takes:

plasmabeam posted...

(6) Metroid Dread vs. (11) MGS4
(5) Bloodborne vs. (12) Twilight Princess
(4) Hades vs. (13) Fallout 3
(3) Animal Crossing New Horizons vs. (14) Oblivion

• MGS4, with ~55%. Anything over 40% on KHII is pretty good at this point, and I'm not inclined to think MGS4 has meaningfully declined since then when MGSV hasn't. Plus, I'm skeptical Metroid Dread has the scale to be huge here.
• Twilight Princess, with ~60%. As others have mentioned, it's a popular mainline Zelda, and that's no slight against Bloodborne's strength.
• Fallout 3, with approximately a doubling - Hades should be on the top end of indie games here, but that's a pretty shallow ceiling relative to something like Fallout 3.
• Oblivion, with ~60-65%. Nothing Animal Crossing has really ever put forth inspiring results, and Oblivion held fast in BGE 3 after Skyrim almost obsoleted it, so it might be just as strong again.

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Dread vs MGS4 is a pretty good one, but I think Metroid has that now.

Mac Arrowny posted...

Start Fox 64 and Star Fox would be eligible for the same contest despite 64 being a remake.

The story might be the same but it's not a remake. Completely different levels

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I think Dread will do pretty well here. MGS4 probably has continued to atrophy because it's completely inaccessible on modern platforms for the last two generations.

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Leonhart4 posted...

Remake would definitely make it in. TLOU2 was GotY runner-up so enough people liked it for it to get in.

Runner-up here? It didn't even make the top 6 poll because it lost the Sequels category to Animal Crossing and Yakuza.

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Weird, for some reason I thought it finished second. Ghost of Tsushima was runner-up, huh. Wild.

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MetalmindStats posted...

It's worth noting that Persona 4 Golden (clearly a more similar remake than FF7R) made GotD 2, while Super Street Fighter II Turbo (likewise) would have made BGE 2 alongside the original Street Fighter II without us add-replacing Mortal Kombat II in over it.

FF7R should definitely be eligible for GotD3 like Persona 4 Golden, Pokemon HG/SS and Resident Evil 2 were eligible for GotD2.

SSF2T is a good example though.

As for Star Fox/Star Fox 64, that's another grey area. It's also a unique example where the later released game is more loved/recognized. Just because SF64 made it to a contest doesn't mean both games are eligible. Given the strength of games we would probably need a 90s GotD contest to test whether or not SBAllen would accept both in the same contest.

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charmander6000 posted...

I realized that between 1990-2021 a 128 game bracket would have an average of four games per year. In a decade it'll be down to around three per year. I wonder if GameFAQs/other communities would ever consider a 256 game bracket. Like we could do one now and it wouldn't be that fodder-ific (less so than the two GotD contests we've had), but it would create a long contest...

A 256 game bracket can be possible, especially since we've had contests in the range of 63-68 days in length. If you wanted to run a 256 game contest within that length of time, you would need the following format:

4-4-4-4-4-2-2-1

That is the matches per day for each round of the contest, which results in a 66 day contest. The real meat of the contest is round 1, taking up 32 days of a 66 day contest. I know a lot of people would probably like to see more rounds of just 1 match per day, or 2 matches per day (in place of 4 per day). Making that change would require something like 8 matches per day in round 1 just to cut down the length the contest.
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Leonhart4 posted...

I think Dread will do pretty well here. MGS4 probably has continued to atrophy because it's completely inaccessible on modern platforms for the last two generations.

I don't think MGS4 being more accessible would help. That's not a game that gets better when you revisit it.

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KamikazePotato posted...

I don't think MGS4 being more accessible would help. That's not a game that gets better when you revisit it.

It's also not reaching new fans who might actually wind up liking it

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What news fans would that be, though? MGS' time in the limelight is over. There's no impetus for people to go back and play it for the first time. Additionally, availability/rereleases only make a noticeable difference for games that aren't already popular. It barely moves the needle for established titles.

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It'd be better than nothing. MGS4 being practically nonexistent will only hurt it. Pretty much every other popular game here is available in some form or fashion on a modern platform.

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Honestly the whole problem with MGS4 mostly seems to be hype backlash from people who didn't get into MGS until later and/or weren't swept up in the hype initially.

Most negative retrospectives of the game tend to criticize its reliance on fanservice. Something which a longtime follower of the series would not have a problem with at worst and outright relish at best. It's one of the most divisive games ever made for precisely that reason. Personally I remember really liking it but thinking back I can understand why someone might find the plot ridiculous and even otherwise the game definitely had its ups and downs.

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In terms of GFaqs contest strength, it's 3 > 1 > 2 > 4 > V?

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Yeah.

Speaking of MGS in contests, did MGS3 have to face three rallies helping BioShock? Part of me feels like BioShock may have overperformed by as much as 7 percentage points there.

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I don't think the stats topic noticed any BioShock rallies during the match but there were definitely some for both Starcraft and Mass Effect 2 going on the same day, both of which probably benefited BioShock.

I wouldn't overestimate the impact there though. BioShock has always been a solid midcarder.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3476-division-8-round-1-bioshock-little-bp-mgs4-portal
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4147-southeast-division-round-2-bioshock-vs-kingdom-hearts-ii

On that second one, Kingdom Hearts II ~ RE4 as of 2009-2010 looks pretty likely to me:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3472-division-7-round-1-gears-of-war-k-hearts-2-re4-sotc
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3491-division-7-round-2-re4-k-hearts-2-zelda-tp-half-life-2
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4184-southeast-division-final-zelda-twilight-princess-vs-kingdom
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4192-final-rounds-quarterfinal-metal-gear-solid-3-vs-zelda

Metal Gear in general has clearly lost a step since then and while MGS3 seems to have weathered the storm relatively well compared to the rest of the franchise, it's probable that it's lost a little strength too. You could support that as well with how Big Boss and particularly The Boss have also dropped off since 2013. So yeah, MGS3 being 4.24% behind what KHII got on BioShock in the face of it probably not being as strong as KHII anymore and rallying causing minor difficulties sounds about right.

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Okay, I kind of feel like the MGS decline is overstated when it's probably only really 1 and 4 that did so. Granted that admittedly is two significant games, but it's those particular games that are the problem and not the whole series. Though yeah the characters definitely went down so I'm mostly only referring to the games themselves. I feel like 3 at least increased and 2 might have also.

In other lol x-stats news, comparing the 2010 and 2015 stats makes it seem like Persona 3 declined in strength between contests! Though that's mostly after taking into account Chrono Trigger possibly being too high.

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MGS4 probably drops the most between any of the classic MGS games.

That said, it's probably in a better position to avenge itself against Brawl than ever before too dur to its own likely drop. Weird times.

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Exercise of the day: rank Melee, FFX, WW, TP from strongest to weakest.

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LinkMarioSamus posted...

Yeah.

Speaking of MGS in contests, did MGS3 have to face three rallies helping BioShock? Part of me feels like BioShock may have overperformed by as much as 7 percentage points there.

MGS3 started at 60% and fell to 52% at the end, so unless Bioshock has a god tier board vote, rallies had a noticeable effect.

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squexa posted...

Exercise of the day: rank Melee, FFX, WW, TP from strongest to weakest.

Melee, Wind Waker, Twilight Princess, Final Fantasy X?

Speaking of which, maybe best not to open up this discussion again but while I have no faith in TLOU2 actually amounting to anything in a contest setting, it seems to be "divisive" more along the lines of Wind Waker or Twilight Princess than, say, The Last Jedi. Imagine if the Internet was more active when the two Zelda games came out.

I guess that just says words about the popularity of Zelda, that even "divisive" installments are still incredibly popular (and not just on this site, either). That might be why this site is more known for Final Fantasy and Chrono Trigger stuff performing well - that distinguishes GameFAQs more, much to the chagrin of this poor board.

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squexa posted...

Exercise of the day: rank Melee, FFX, WW, TP from strongest to weakest.

Melee is easily on top.

WW > TP probably.

FFX SHOULD be 2nd but I don't trust that choke artist as far as I can throw it so it's probably last.
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squexa posted...

MGS3 started at 60% and fell to 52% at the end, so unless Bioshock has a god tier board vote, rallies had a noticeable effect.

Not sure about in general but I distinctly remember Big Daddy having an awful board vote in this match:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=5189&num=3

He went from getting stomped 56-44% an hour in (against an opponent we expected him to beat easily!) to almost catching up 11 hours later. MGS3 was probably going to bleed percentage like crazy that match regardless, just maybe not as much as it ended up actually doing.

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AxemRedRanger posted...

Not sure about in general but I distinctly remember Big Daddy having an awful board vote in this match:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=5189&num=3

He went from getting stomped 56-44% an hour in (against an opponent we expected him to beat easily!) to almost catching up 11 hours later. MGS3 was probably going to bleed percentage like crazy that match regardless, just maybe not as much as it ended up actually doing.

That's against Pokemon and ToS though, which always had a great board vote historically.

The only other poll I found with MGS and Bioshock in the same match:
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3476&num=4

2015 overall was kind of weird though, with trends and rallies all over the place.

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Melee wins that fourpack.

I would pick TP > WW and feel very good about it. FFX is definitely the hardest one to place there.

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Melee is a fraud

Book it

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In all seriousness I think Melee would have been a force to be reckoned with if a games contest was held between 2005 and 2007. Then Brawl came out and might have set Melee's contest strength back a decent bit. Would Smash threaten 40% on Mario if another series contest was held?

Also uh when was the last time Melee won a debated match without LFF or offsite assistance? Against Final Fantasy X in '04? Ooh such an achievement. And yet FFX would have still gotten 52% on Melee in GOTD going by direct extrapolation, despite the site's shift towards Nintendo in the meantime.

I also want to point out how going by the 2010 and 2015 stats, assuming a constant Perfect Dark means 2015 Call of Duty 4 is worth ~35% on its 2010 self and assuming a constant Melee means 2015 Halo 3 is worth ~41% on its 2010 self.

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Leonhart4 posted...

Melee is a fraud

Book it

Doesn't matter if it's a fraud or not if its fanbase continues to rally for it.

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swirIdude posted...

Doesn't matter if it's a fraud or not if its fanbase continues to rally for it.

It only makes it more fraudulent

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I can't imagine TP > WW. Twilight Princess IS a better game than Wind Waker to play but WW has got the better graphics (best in the series...), story beats (underwater castle, Ganon fight), and characters. I think those make it more memorable, despite the otherwise poor dungeons.

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I'd probably go with one of the Zelda games to beat Melee in an upset.

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Seanchan posted...

I can't imagine TP > WW. Twilight Princess IS a better game than Wind Waker

Nah Wind Waker is the better game, but it'll still lose to Twilight Princess.

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Wind Waker definitely isn't winning due to graphics.

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maybe not just due to them but 20 years later they almost certainly help more than hurt.

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AxemRedRanger posted...

maybe not just due to them but 20 years later they almost certainly help more than hurt.

Yup. WW's visuals are iconic.

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Iconic *now.* Funny how times change.

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It's not like ~38% on Chrono Trigger without rallies is bad or anything, it's just we somehow expect Melee to be top tier in these contests when it's a step or two behind at best. Once upon a time we probably would have debated SSBM vs. LTTP, now it's more likely Melee would lose to Wind Waker or Twilight Princess. Heck Melee already did worse against KH2 in 2015 than TP did in 2010, so it's either TP > Melee or KH2 somehow boosting between 2010 and 2015 (I think I've read that the game's reputation increased with the release of the HD Final Mix versions but otherwise why is there a good reason to believe this?).

Somehow KH1 and KH2 both look so much better in the 2015 x-stats than the 2010 ones despite the characters' continual decline. Maybe all those spinoff games hurt the brand's image but not so much KH1/2? And maybe KH3 stunk up the joint royally in GOTD because GFAQs refuses to play all those spinoff games which are really not because they're necessary to understand KH3?

Maybe this isn't the best place to say this, but has there ever been an instance where back-to-back KH games were released on the same system? The way I see it the order of release goes by system like this: PS2, GBA, PS2, DS, PSP, 3DS at first. I know the compilation re-releases exist now but before then how on earth was someone supposed to keep up?

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Xstats from 2015 aren't worth much because of rallies, bandwagoning, SFF matches, etc derailing the contest. I'd find it hard to rationalize KH boosting randomly in 2015, since that makes so little sense to me.

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squexa posted...

I'd find it hard to rationalize KH boosting randomly in 2015, since that makes so little sense to me.

demographic shift? it doesn't have to be outside influence (like KH general popularity changing)

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I imagine people have some nostalgia for KH1 and KH2 at this point because of what the series has become since. The same thing that probably helps MGS3 because it was the last "great" game in the series.

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True, but even then KH2 directly outperformed its 2010 loss to TP against a presumably stronger opponent - and direct extrapolation had Melee getting 52% on TP in 2010 since, y'know, they both shared a common opponent (you could maybe argue SFF getting in the way, but eh). Plus taking CT's and Melee's other matches from that division plus Arkham City/TLOU from GOTD at face value, Melee is projected to get 38% on CT which is frankly really good.

Not entirely on topic, but has Melee suffered a popularity hit on this board due to its rallies in 2015? Or heck, maybe its rallies and the general "devotedness" of the Smash fandom cause the entire series to be anti-voted in contest matches? We probably should never hold another series contest ever again but if we did I bet Smash would do well to avoid a doubling from Mario.

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There could be some nostalgia or demographic shift boosting KH1+2, but I'd be more convinced if similar games like FFX, FFXII boosted or if KH characters looked great in 2018 in the same way that CT's boost was part of a broader SNES nostalgia wave that led to FFVI also boosting etc. I can see the MGS3 analogy in that KH1+2 didn't fall hard like MGS4 or FFX if people are seeing KH2 as the "last great Square game", but I don't think KH1+2 or MGS3 boosted either.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

True, but even then KH2 directly outperformed its 2010 loss to TP against a presumably stronger opponent - and direct extrapolation had Melee getting 52% on TP in 2010 since, y'know, they both shared a common opponent (you could maybe argue SFF getting in the way, but eh). Plus taking CT's and Melee's other matches from that division plus Arkham City/TLOU from GOTD at face value, Melee is projected to get 38% on CT which is frankly really good.

Not entirely on topic, but has Melee suffered a popularity hit on this board due to its rallies in 2015? Or heck, maybe its rallies and the general "devotedness" of the Smash fandom cause the entire series to be anti-voted in contest matches? We probably should never hold another series contest ever again but if we did I bet Smash would do well to avoid a doubling from Mario.

I think pre-rally Melee fell a bit in 2015. I wouldn't take the CT/Melee seriously, since that was derailed by rallies so I dont think anyone can say what a "fair" rally-less match would look like had it happened round 1 before the contest went off the rails. You can also use the GSC match to argue that pre-rally Melee was trending to do only 1-2% worse on GSC than MM did in 2010, which perfectly matches the 2010 xstats but I don't think the round 3 MM in 2010 is the same one that beat Brawl and FFX.

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I don't take the CT/Melee match seriously as far as contest strength is concerned one iota. It's just that we generally agreed CT would get somewhere in the low 60%s against an unrallied Melee and the TLOU/Arkham City match in GOTD bears that out.

I seriously want to ask how it was being a KH fan during the timeframe that 358/2 Days, Birth by Sleep, and 3D came out, aka between KH2 and the compilation re-releases. I said earlier I get the feeling all the KH characters have been punished for it in contests while in a games contest setting KH1/2 are still fine (I can't even say "first two games" because technically II is the third game, what on earth?).

Melee declining over time would at least fit what the polls of the day tell us. Does anyone think BOTW would have a particular adverse effect on TP's strength?

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Allen gave us percentages for registered voters for all of Melee's matches.

Smash Bros. Melee vs. Portal: 70.37% / 29.63%
Smash Bros. Melee vs. Pokemon Gold/Silver: 57.72% / 42.28%
Smash Bros. Melee vs. Kingdom Hearts II: 59.51% / 40.49%
Chrono Trigger vs. Smash Bros. Melee: 63.28% / 36.72%
Smash Bros. Melee vs. Final Fantasy VII: 42.92% / 57.08%"
Smash Bros. Melee vs. Undertale - 69.59% 30.41%

That CT number is if anything probably slightly generous to Melee given how front-loaded (and therefore registered-user heavy) Melee typically is, even moreso than most Nintendo stuff, but CT probably isn't guest casual-bait like KHII seems to be either so it likely doesn't matter too much.

CT/FFX and those numbers suggested Melee/FFX was still like 53-47 which at the time people generally took to be a sign of FFX's relatively good health. Maybe it should have been viewed as damning of Melee's decline instead, though.

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Melee 2015=/=Melee 2021

2014 - https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5632-13-years-after-its-original-release-whats-your-all-time
2016 - https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6235-which-is-bestall-time-super-smash-bros-game
2017 - https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6836-16-years-after-its-original-release-whats-your-all-time
2018 - https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7203-what-is-your-all-time-favorite-gamecube-game
2021 - https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8438-what-is-the-best-all-time-super-smash-bros-game
2021 - https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8645-what-is-your-all-time-favorite-gamecube-game

It gets weaker every year, and we shouldn't expect it to be the same game it was back then.


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squexa posted...

I'd find it hard to rationalize KH boosting randomly in 2015, since that makes so little sense to me.

My personal theory is that both KHs suffered from voters taking the GotD title seriously, as they seem to be well-liked but not really beloved, and it feels like there's been a certain related stigma surrounding the series since day 1.

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