Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1368

(+) Yeah! (+)

Big Bob posted...

Peak Melee definitely wasn't the Melee vs. Brawl duel, it was the contest where it beat CT and FFVII before losing to a crazy opponent in Undertale. It could have won the BGE contest, which isn't something I could say for Brawl or Ultimate.

we're talking peak without rallying

2015 Melee was getting obliterated by Chrono Trigger before the fanbase couldn't handle it and had to rally it to victory

I still wish that Melee had won the Undertale vs. Melee rally battle so Melee could be the bad guy game everybody hates instead of Undertale but what can you do. IIRC that was the only match where Undertale looked a bit shady.

don't worry, Melee is still the game everyone hates because it ruined Chrono Trigger's magical run

I expect CT'll probably get some anti-votes from B8ers since so many people here whine about it losing.

KamikazePotato posted...

It looks fine if you put Spider-Man around Horizon's level.

If we just plug in Spider-Man = Horizon, then Ultimate is worth 64% on Horizon and since Horizon got 55% on Borderlands 2 in 2020, then Ultimate is worth 67% on Borderlands 2.

In 2015, MGS1 got 60% on Earthbound, which got 59% on Borderlands 2, meaning MGS is worth 67% on Borderlands 2.

This again gives us Ultimate = MGS1, the same we'd get projecting through RDR. You can blame some rally spillover in the MGS/EB match I guess, but I don't think there's much noticeable impact and the spillover was against MGS3 (and slightly for SotC in the SotC/RDR match) in the other match if anything.

Mac Arrowny posted...

I expect CT'll probably get some anti-votes from B8ers since so many people here whine about it losing.

I don't think it'll outweigh those upset about it losing

Mac Arrowny posted...

I expect CT'll probably get some anti-votes from B8ers since so many people here whine about it losing.

Probably not that much. The subject doesn't really come up outside of this topic which limits to potential damage. When you further subtract people that are at least sympathetic to how CT got killed by a rally, it just isn't a very big group.

squexa posted...

If we just plug in Spider-Man = Horizon, then Ultimate is worth 64% on Horizon and since Horizon got 55% on Borderlands 2 in 2020, then Ultimate is worth 67% on Borderlands 2.

In 2015, MGS1 got 60% on Earthbound, which got 59% on Borderlands 2, meaning MGS is worth 67% on Borderlands 2.

This again gives us Ultimate = MGS1, the same we'd get projecting through RDR. You can blame some rally spillover in the MGS/EB match I guess, but I don't think there's much noticeable impact and the spillover was against MGS3 (and slightly against SotC in the SotC/RDR match) in the other match if anything.

That basically puts Ultimate around KH2 level, which means it gets 45% on 2015 Melee. Seems about right to me.

Another way to see it is BotW got 68% on ME2 in 2020 and MGS3 got 61% on ME2 in 2015. Assuming ME2 didn't randomly boost in strength, then BotW would get about 60% on MGS3 and I don't think MGS3 is that strong. In 2010, MM got 58% on it. In 2015, MGS3 got 52% on Bioshock, which only got 61% on SH2. Now there's very likely some rally spillover but even giving MGS3 an extra 5-6% would still put Bioshock only slightly below Persona 5/Dark Souls.

In 2020, BotW got 56% on Witcher 3 and with KP's rally adjustments, BotW would get 59% on Witcher 3 and around 62-63% on Skyrim. I'd say 59% is probably the lowest I can see BotW getting on SSBU (without SFF), since that'll set Spider-Man = DQXI and any lower would send Spider-Man into ME2/TLOU/GoW territory.

On the other hand, in 2015, WW got 63% on KOTOR and 46% on FFVI and through FFVI, would get 64% on Paper Mario TTYD. I see no reason why WW would have any issues beating MGS3 since WW = MGS3 would mean KOTOR and Paper Mario have fallen so much they'd be struggling to beat SH2 and only get 44% on Bioshock. In 2015, TP got 65% on Persona 4 and 43% on SM64. Even without using the P4 argument, TP and Bioshock both faced KH2 in 2010 and TP was worth 62% on Bioshock.

Either way, I think the newer games are being overrated. They haven't had any competition except against other newer games, whereas the 00s games "look bad" because they got put up against SNES/N64 games. It's way easier to look impressive delivering a beatdown on AC:O than it is going up against FFVI.

If I had to guess, I'd say using BotW as a base
- MM would be worth 47%
- WW would be worth around 44-45%
- TP would be worth around 43-44%
- Witcher 3/Smash Ultimate would be around 41-42%
- MGS3/MGS1 would be around 40%
- Skyrim would be around 37-38%

MP and FFX have too many other variables so I'm not delivering a verdict here, but I think they'll look pretty good against the new games although FFX could always shit the bed like usual.

squexa posted...

MM would be worth 47%

This is basically the indirect calculation I ended up with back when I did calculations back when the contest ended. It's kind of insane how badly BotW SFFd MM despite probably not being that much stronger.

KamikazePotato posted...

This is basically the indirect calculation I ended up with back when I did calculations back when the contest ended. It's kind of insane how badly BotW SFFd MM despite probably not being that much stronger.

I stand by Majora's Mask being exceptionally vulnerable to Breath of the Wild because of both being non-traditional Zeldas.

squexa posted...

Assuming ME2 didn't randomly boost in strength

Not a lot probably, but I could see ME2 boosting a little through the contest title of the precious contest.

Stupid question: If another series contest is held, would Grand Theft Auto be able to reverse its loss to Warcraft?

Not only does GTA win that, it probably wins with 60%+. Although people are not thrilled with the direction GTA has taken, compared to Warcraft and Blizzard it has no problem whatsoever.

Okay in such a contest what would win a match between GTA and Uncharted?

I agree that newer games are probably overrated when they only face each other. We saw that in the original Games Contest when Division 128 looked the strongest top to bottom. Some of them hold up relatively well against older games, but they don't win.

BotW still managed to look damn good against Majora's Mask at least.

Yeah, there are obviously exceptions for something as huge as Breath of the Wild, but if you were to put, say, Persona 5 up against a 90s game of relative strength, I don't know that I'd bet on P5 winning that.

What 90s games is P5 projected to be close to by the stats? I guess FF8 and FF9 could be interesting competition?

I don't have the stats on hand to say, but the first games that came to mind were FFIX and SotN.

I'd be tempted to pull the trigger on a P5 > FFIX upset, but SotN > P5 would be a pretty safe bet.

Doing some very quick maths just based on the pure results, P5 gets 38.79 on BotW without any adjustments. If you put BotW up to 59 on Witcher 3, P5 goes down to 36.82.

For reference, FFIX got 35.04% on OoT directly, so for FFIX/P5 to be equals, I think you're looking at OoT getting between 52.42% and 54.83% on BotW, assuming no other boosts or drops since then.

Through Portal 2, Persona 5 is expected to get 54.59% on Sonic 2. That's...actually a case where I'd feel okay taking P5, even if we're running the risk of Portal 2 getting weaker between 2015 and 2020, so that might be a bad example...!

I would love to see P5 beat FF9

I suspect FF9 is slightly out of P5's reach. I think P5 beats FF8 though.

P5 ~= Dark Souls and 2015 Dark Souls = 29% on ALttP and 43% on FFIV (through ALttP).

Obviously, 2020 Dark Souls is another beast though. Based on DS/MGSV (55% for DS in 2015 and 63% in 2020), if MGSV remained constant while the entirety of the shift was due to DS boosting, then P5/DS gets around 51-52% on FFIV.

So I'd say FFIX would be a bit too ambitious and FFIV and FFVIII would be better targets.

OrangeCrush980 posted...

I suspect FF9 is slightly out of P5's reach. I think P5 beats FF8 though.

FFIX is weaker than FFVIII though. FFVIII only looks bad in the last contest because of rally spillover from the Undertale match where it was very clear Super Mario World benefitted a lot from it.

I feel pretty safe in saying IX has overtaken VIII at this point, but I don't think it's that big of a gulf.

FFVIII isn't getting 36% on Ocarina of Time.

I'd need more data to accept FFIX has overtaken FFVIII other than BGE 2015's data where Undertale was literally on every single day of FFVIII's matches.

There was a insane gap between 8 and 9 in 2009 and 8 literally beat the shit out of 9 in their match. Also 9 has been getting a lot more backlash and many of the fans have been vocal about 9's problems more than they have ever been.

I'd need to see it to believe that 9 has overtaken 8. This is similar to the case of Wind Waker and Twilight Princess where WW is FFIX and TP is FFVIII. However WW has grown to be more beloved whereas FFIX has grown more polarizing to the fans as years have passed.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

FFVIII isn't getting 36% on Ocarina of Time.

Ocarina was being anti-voted to oblivion in its matches. Even Suikoden II scored a decent number on OoT that contest.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1178-whats-your-favorite-final-fantasy
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5727-from-the-last-27-years-which-numbered-final-fantasy-title-is

Theres also Squall/Vivi.

And Squall underperforming Aerith on Zelda in 2018.

And In FFVIII/Vice City, the Undertale spillover seemed to actually help FFVIII and that it would have failed to 60-40 Vice City without that probably isnt great.

There are various reasons to quibble with the individual pieces of evidence, but the overall picture with everything gathered together looks clear.

I believed that FFVIII could beat FFX at one point, but even I'm not taking it over IX now.

FFIX also defeated Kingdom Hearts in that contest.

Indirectly I do believe the two games are close (55/45), but it's quite likely IX has overtaken VIII on GameFAQs.

At least it has over six years ago, maybe the trend has reversed, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Axl_Rose_85 posted...

Ocarina was being anti-voted to oblivion in its matches. Even Suikoden II scored a decent number on OoT that contest.

If anything it's more impressive Ocarina managed to triple Suikoden II. That game is like everything this site loves, there's only so poorly a highly-acclaimed PS1 RPG is going to do in these contests.

Axl_Rose_85 posted...

There was a insane gap between 8 and 9 in 2009 and 8 literally beat the shit out of 9 in their match. Also 9 has been getting a lot more backlash and many of the fans have been vocal about 9's problems more than they have ever been.

Lol 2009 and lol 4-ways

Remember when people were insisting Leon would beat Vivi in 2018 just because he did in 2007?

Vivi was the heavy board favorite in that match!

Probably had more to do with Leon falling big time too as he didn't even reach that match.

I can't stand FF9 or Vivi so it probably beats FF8 just to spite me.

I appreciate all the fun gaming discussion but you gents are missing The Story of the Year. Our long international nightmare has finally arrived- it's a cat world now, we're all just living in it!

2005 - Dogs win, 59.42%
2009 - Dogs win, 59.20%
2012 - Dogs win, 56.43%
2015 - Dogs win, 52.46%
2017 - Dogs win, 51.79%
2022 - Cats win, 50.67%

As votals have fallen, so too has the fate of our beloved puppies. Turns out they were the ultimate Casual Bait after all! Yesterday's upset shouldn't have come as a shock given the way results have been trending, and also how it had been five years since they last went to war, but the result still stings bitterly for all Doggie Diehards like myself.

There is nothing that says we're getting old like that result

Cats are for lazy people. Dogs will always be king.

Yes, but how do Dogs do against Link? 30%?

shane15 posted...

Cats are for lazy people. Dogs will always be king.

spoken like a moron who never had cats.

abdou posted...

spoken like a moron who never had cats.

https://www.dictionary.com/e/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/cool-story-bro-6.jpg

Amaterasu vs Morgana, who you got?

... Surely there are stronger video game cats. There have to be.

Meowth?

Mac Arrowny posted...

... Surely there are stronger video game cats. There have to be.

I mean there's CATS

and there is a Link the cat in Twilight Princess

(the real answer is probably Meowth...?)

Mario