Lurker > Lopen

I will say I've got all the tingly feeling going on right now about that market close

Tons and tons of 5 digit bid walls were pushing it up. SOMEONE KNOWS SOMETHING. They may not be right about the timing but I do think we're getting something pretty soon. Maybe not next week, but someone on the inside thinks something is imminent for some reason.

Without news we'll see some huge price spike somewhere between Monday and Wednesday. Has done it time and time again when it finishes over the option strike. It may happen right at market open Monday. If that happens and you're here for it, selling calls sometime on the way up or down will probably make you a lot of money.

With news, more specifically the form 10 being released with dividend date, I have no idea. If we get news I would advise you to pick your exit price, sell enough BBIG to get your initial investment out, then let the rest of your shares ride to the moon with me. I put the absolute floor with dividend at around $12. Realistically speaking it could go much higher.

Well you do you but I'll just say that strategy is better employed on more stable stocks

When a stock price is moving 20% day to day timing a spike is going to make you more premium than the day of time. I'm not saying diamond hand forever but I expect a fierce spike of some sort (basically vertical line on the chart) between Monday and Wednesday due to 1.5 million open options at $3 and MM needing to deliver those.

Selling a call when it spikes to $3.40 on Tuesday will make more money than selling a call when it was hovering at $3.10 all day today.

Holding convincingly above 3 right now you should be able to sell calls next week at $4 for some good premium again. Just wait for any upward spike and sell calls on the spike. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE THOUGH.

Diablo 2
League of Legends

Those are definitely top 2. After that it becomes really hard to tiebreak.

Halo 2 - Wasted the majority of my later High School years on this. But the sittings were probably 2-3 hours a pop, even though there were a ton of them.
Civilization 4 - Lots of marathon games completed in a sitting or two. Dozens of games that took 10-20 hours of real time each.
Warcraft 3 - Played a lot of multiplayer here. I know I had around 500 games in multiplayer. Hundreds of games at 20-30 minutes each.
Final Fantasy Record Keeper - Been playing off and on, mostly on, for 6 years. Not a lot of time per day but it adds up.
Lufia 2 - I've played SO many Ancient Cave runs in this-- I had a save file that had every blue chest item in the game as well as all the Iris Treasures.

It's probably Record Keeper the more I think about it.

Hard rejection at 3 makes me think we're more likely to test 3.5 today than go under 3. Market maker has over a million shares to deliver if it stays over 3. Some of those will need to be hedged for.

Dante's Awakening - 9

I absolutely love the ridiculous cutscenes and characterization of Dante and Vergil, and even Lady and Arkham. Simplicity works for it.

You've got a long established bottom on BBIG. Functional risk is fairly low. If you're aggressively selling 3.5c it's especially low.

I mean yes it could get down a bit below $3, which I did say was a fairly strong possibility this week because that's where the market makers want it, but if it does you just sell a bunch of 3.5c for next week. Very easy to get your cost basis down if you don't care about landing on the moon.

Personally though if I was playing both sides timidly selling puts to get in seems to make more sense than buying shares and immediately selling calls on them.

I suspect Amazon is very close to doing a split of their own following Google and Apple (Apple was a year ago now but eh, it still feels due)

Calls are so darn expensive though that I can't afford to make a play on it.

You'd ideally want them to get to like $3.98. Then you keep your shares to sell more calls next week.

I want them as high as possible

Without news $3.98 looks like a possibility. I have a hard time thinking they can hold it below $3.50 for three more days seeing the stats but you never know. If market as a whole takes a dump that helps. I still think $5 is on the table though. I think if we firmly get past $3.59 we basically run straight through $4 and $5 becomes the number to protect. We'll see though.

Also I don't think you're grasping how dire this is getting

The cost to borrow is sitting at 360% average on the day, 555% max borrow cost
70% of our volume on the day has been routed through dark pools/short
We're still up $0.21, fighting hard for $3.50.

You can distrust the numbers but among the numbers we get, these are extremely high among their peers and generally occur when something is about to pop, and we've got a ton of open interest on $3.50/$4 this week. News could make this run hard but I suspect this will run before we actually get our news as these numbers can't be sustained for long. (which will make the upward movement from said news that much more violent)

To be honest I think the data is there to train a machine on when to bail out. Open call interest and volume across all the places you can buy them escalating is probably a red flag that WSB-esque retail is onto your game. I will say that back in 2008-2010 that data wasn't even used to train our AI-- but we were also a VERY small time firm compared to your giants in the game.

I'm not sure "tail risk" is something that can be fed into an algorithm even though it intuitively makes sense.

The other problem is when the short interest is as high as it is now (approaching 35%) and you're still shorting your heart out to keep it down, getting out itself can cause the short squeeze. Which is better for risk management, trying to continue to suppress the price and hoping the underlying company screws it up somehow or retail loses interest, or suffering a smaller loss up front but guaranteeing a loss. I feel like on average the previous strategy is going to make more money, because a lot of highly shorted companies ARE junk, and retail IS fickle in general.

Anyway I'm not claiming to be an expert here. I haven't even dabbled in that kinda stuff since 2012. So yeah it's very possible the entire idea is different now-- but the idea of machine learning and training/testing sets, conceptually that hasn't really changed to my knowledge. It has no doubt advanced but the basic concept is the same I'm sure.

But yeah I just know a LOT of the market is automated first hand (I mean it should be obvious it is just looking at it, but I have an idea firsthand of how it's done) and you're probably giving short sellers/market makers more credit than they deserve if you say "well they wouldn't do that because they'll clearly lose money"-- they will make moves that will clearly lose money because on average with a stock market full of stocks to exploit they won't lose money making those moves. The amount of coordination and awareness needed to beat the algorithms is such that they won't lose all that often.

Also there is just a lot of information on BBIG that can't even be boiled down into "data" such that if you've got it flagged as an easy short, the data that it shouldn't be shorted isn't something an AI can really digest. A dividend is coming that has no cash value and must be covered when shorting-- there's no way to feed that into a machine.

So if you want my answer to "why would they do this, it's so hard to make money continuing to short here" the basic tl;dr answer is

"they're not consciously doing it, and right now BBIG is a blip on the radar in terms of the overall balance sheet"

Maybe if it flies to hundreds Gamestop did they'll notice. Until then load up on the cheap.

It's not about "learning speed" it's about raw size of the data set to learn from. An AI can't make a pattern to base buying and selling logic if there's not enough data to use and test on. We don't have more data now than we did then because the environment is presumably different-- we have less. We can't go back to 2019 and use its data to build a training set for a different retail-driven market, back then we had years and years of back data to tap into.

Yeah you can take a stab at it but you're trading billions of dollars here you don't want to be incorrect. It's probably safer to use the old proven machine learning algorithms for now and just assume most squeezes won't take off like they did and figure out how to game the system gradually with a lot and lot of test runs.

And here's the thing with those computer programs (at least the ones I helped design, but I would be very surprised if there was a different way to do it that was effective given the nature of the data)

They're all based on machine learning algorithms

It's not as simple as "well just fix the computer program." You need two things for that to happen.

1. Awareness that the algorithm isn't working currently. In the market at large the algorithms are probably still working, so they're probably still able to be exploited by savvy retail.
2. Enough data on a new training/testing set to tweak your algorithm to adjust what it's doing in a way that presumably makes sense. There is a lot of data out there, so certainly plausible, but I'm thinking at minimum you want months in your training set (we had a year and a half I believe-- this was like 15 years ago though), one year removed from Gamestop I have my doubts they've been evolved yet.

Like I'm not saying get on every stock with high short interest. But if there's a high short interest and the company appears to be growing and doing good things, something is wrong.

SDC has high short interest reported. Smile Direct Club could very well go bankrupt in a few years so yeah I don't see why I'd do that. Don't buy this.
Sundial Growers has a high short interest, they currently bleed money at a very rapid rate and are at risk of being delisted or reverse split if their price doesn't double in a few months. Don't buy this.

BBIG has a great management team coming through, bunch of great catalysts incoming (acquisition of ad placement company that will monetize a rapidly growing short video platform, NFT company spinoff) and doesn't move up/moves down. Yeah you could not buy because the price is bleeding, but why? What is the fear based on aside from the price where you have lots of published data direct from the exchange and reputable data providers saying you shouldn't trust the price? Why will it go down from here?

With Market Makers it's about kicking the cans down the road. The huge open interest of options week after week is what is causing it. They're making tons and tons of money by not delivering shares right now. If they can weather the storm long enough and BBIG hype dies down, the price never pops and they pocket all that premium.

Why you are mistaken in thinking there aren't similarities to GME and AMC here is those stocks the options is what moved the price violently as well. A bunch of people just buying shares doesn't do it. Options are what drove the market there.

Short Sellers I'm not entirely sure. Keep in mind they're very far up on this trade currently. The thing with short selling is it's very easy to rake lots of money on small amounts of movement. If you short BBIG at $3.50 and it falls to $1.75 you've doubled your money. Also keep in mind that a lot of really big money, they're shorting due to a computer algorithm. I worked for a company that designed computer algorithms that decided whether to buy or short a stock based on the underlying option volatility-- that was the entire basis of my job position, to let people make money wheeling stocks without paying attention, so yes it does exist, and these "poor shorting" decisions could completely be the work of a computer algorithm and not some mustache twirling evil fat cat saying "AH I'LL SHORT NOW"

Anyway the inorganic price movement in the face of impending catalysts makes it clear. People wouldn't be selling a company with all this stuff on the very near horizon. There is a stark difference between how BBIG moves and something like I don't know MMAT or SDC. But I'm not here because it gets squeezed for the squeeze's sake, I'm here because TYDE dividend, when the SEC irons it out, forces covering.

Basically your options are the following

• People following the stock are selling massively and the data showing short interest/ftds/etc is incorrect
• People are shorting, all the data we have is correct, and people actually following the stock are holding

Like you either have a tinfoil hat about fintel/ortex/nasdaq etc or you have a tinfoil hat about short selling-- no matter which scenario someone is lying.

Also realize that even if it goes down you can do this next week too. Any sold call with 3.5 strike or higher you make money.

As I said really hard to lose right now. Too much volume and demand for options. If I wasn't out to hit the jackpot I'd be selling puts or calls right now

So mentally just realize that even if it goes down you've basically bought in at around $3.35 at this point.

I still think that market maker pinning just below $3 seems possible but I'm holding all my calls for this week expecting $5 or so on no news. Too much shorting and cost to borrow right now for this volume.

Not at all what I recommended just to put it on the record

Feel really good about you getting a modest 20% on that though

MrGreenonion posted...

I thought it was gonna be Cloud's victory pose with the Buster Sword acting as an hour hand

I'd actually buy that.

BBIG's volume is among the highest on the exchange recently so the liquidity thing is not the issue here.

Ease of manipulation is the key. It's got such a huge short interest that it gets manipulated like it has low liquidity even though the liquidity is through the roof.

But hey if the bullflag goes low enough he may be able to get back in.

It's certainly possible. I don't really see it getting lower than the $3 borderline (could easily see it get pinned just below $3 though) which is why I was saying selling 3.5c doesn't seem like a terrible idea (back when your entry was at $3.26, even if it went back down to around $3 you would have made money on the exchange selling 3.5c at $0.30)

It really is a ticking time bomb though which is why I'm saying just putting a modest sum in (as in, just pretend the money doesn't exist) and holding through April is going to make you the most. Once that dividend date is in stone we're going to be well north of $10.

3.5c is going in the $0.25 to $0.30 range
4c is going in the $0.13 to $0.17 range

So basically selling those would reduce your cost basis by the respective figure and you'd only lose the shares if it held above those prices (both of which are above where you bought the shares so it's win-win)

It's pretty hard to lose money on the stock if you're aggressive with those.

Everyone sees your stop orders

With a volatile stock like this it literally is a stop gain. The price will just be moved to the range to get your shares then bounce right back up.

Oh.

Oh.

Lol.

So if you want to make it super hard to lose money you could sell a bunch of 3.5c on BBIG that expire Friday

Not financial advice I say hold till at least double but it is an option to you to make an easy ~20% gain

Just so you all know BBIG is well over 95% of my portfolio currently. I'm not endorsing anything I don't believe in completely. (I have a very small amount of TWTR puts that expire 2/18 and QQQ/IWM calls)

Why is Gamora

Nebula

Ah yeah Ego that's a snub I care about too. Sorta. I'm actually not sure I'd ever save him but he is a good character

Ronan who cares (the other mentions who cares too but they're notable snubs-- not actually sure Ronan is dsspite being the lead bad in a major film just because he's o whatever)

Just realized there's no Dr Octopus in this. Unfortunate! Not sure if there are any other major snubs I can see-- was expecting some given the weird nomination process.

Be sure to buy in multiples of 10 should you do so

Get every last TYDE share you're due

Drax
Strange

Moonroof posted...

I was *this* close to putting $260k into BBIG at close. I didnt have it in me.

Do 52k and hold for 3 months instead of 260k and holding for 3 minutes

You'll generate dozens of times the returns.

BBIG up 13.37% today

Signs and portents.

Still waiting on the official dividend date but the Form 10 addendum had "January ___" as the date which is making a PR today seem at least somewhat likely.

Chart looking super bullish right now though. I'm thinking $3.50 is the battleground tomorrow morning even without news.

Loki
Green Goblin

C'mon BBIG break $5 by the end of the week so I can sell my $3 calls to exercise $2.50 calls

Wordle 225 4/6

Token
Yarns
Bring
Wrung

2

It tries but is actively disinteresting while doing so. I would prefer no story

I feel like my chances of winning the women's rumble is strong considering number and entrant

But I haven't watched WWE in a year so maybe not

Wordle 224 4/6

Yodel
Solid
Would
Could

In

Wordle 223 6/6

Large
Beret
Heros
Ferry
Mercy
Perky

Played hard mode and kept going for the kill shot almost paid for it ha ha

Wordle 222 5/6







Scout
Ought
Robot
Plume
Mount

Was actually fairly certain of the positions of the yellow letters after guess 2 and probably could have got it in 3 if I tried but I decided to be lazy and burn some guesses to get letters off the board and confirm my position certainty

Dual word thing in 7
Spout
(I forgot, something with an e in it)
Chart
Droit
Forum
Forky (lmao)
Forgo

I'm not sure how Discord makes money but it'd probably get a meme push

Not that QQQ is safer than BBIG but it will move less violently

QQQ lol

Moonroof posted...

TQQQ is basically a super nasdaq etf?

It's leveraged QQQ

Basically amps gains and losses on QQQ

I don't recommend actually investing in it over QQQ long term but for huge swings it's the play