| Board List | |
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| Topic | If anyone was wondering about my mafia championship qualifier game |
| Lopen 08/30/21 11:29:01 AM #129 | That actually seems backwards I'd expect the players to be LESS able to remain impartial as stakes increase not more --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | If anyone was wondering about my mafia championship qualifier game |
| Lopen 08/30/21 10:49:46 AM #127 | I feel like there should be a group of uninformed observers that decide who advances not the players themselves. That just turns mafia into mafiaception in a way But maybe that's the point --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| Lopen 08/26/21 5:16:05 PM #141 | Mile's graph looks really interesting Might have to research why I should expect it to go up other than the graph though --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| Lopen 08/20/21 12:33:09 PM #91 | No. Not sure what the holdup is. I assume the execution is being delayed due to COVID and semiconductor shortages. Part of me is suspecting 7-11 isn't the company at this point but the revenue number it expects to bring in is still massive so it mostly matters for hype spikes anyway (though 7-11s international presence would give it baked in growth so I'm still hoping it's them) Anyway me I just see around $0.1 EPS without that deal announced or generating revenue yet, guidance that has 8000 more SAAS display endpoints being added, double what they expected last quarter, and think this stock price is nonsense, so I'll gladly buy some shares to swing trade even if I dont particularly want more warrants (already 13k deep in them) --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| Lopen 08/20/21 12:05:41 PM #89 | I fully expect to hold most of my CREXW until Nov 2023 and convert them to stock at that point so liquidity isn't a huge concern of mine. I really think the SP is going to be WELL above $5 at that point (I believe the strike on the warrants is either $4.50 or $4.35 or $4.85) and with actual positive EPS I think it's likely it'll put out dividends at some point. Probably a very modest one until it really starts to roll but I'll gladly enjoy a $0.02 dividend if I have 10k shares. $800 a year to hold a stock you think will keep growing sounds great. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| Lopen 08/20/21 11:15:13 AM #86 | Speaking of low price highly fluctuating investments CREX has fallen low enough that I'm really tempted to pick up a bunch to swing trade it when it doubles. A company with a soundly positive EPS already with growth prospects on top of that really shouldn't be anywhere near $1. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| Lopen 08/19/21 3:19:18 PM #79 | I'm kinda excited for this dip as I withdrew a lot of money from the market a couple of months ago for my startup business expenses-- now that venture has panned out and I'm about to start making a lot more money. September I should be primed to make some good investments if the market continues to die until then. Going to be eyeing 2024 LEAPS when they start coming out. Some stocks of note I'm looking at for my LEAPS. BA BIDU BP COUP CPNG DIS FUBO (but of course) GE HA SABR Any other stocks anyone is feeling bullish on to recover/grow a lot in the next few years? --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Para ranks every classic Mega Man stage theme |
| Lopen 08/15/21 12:03:20 PM #298 | Aw no more "lol"ing to be had Seriously though I probably couldn't justify Dr Wily Soccer much higher than that either. Great theme though good to see another fan! Forgot MM7 Wily but when you play it I immediately remember it clearly and fondly despite having only played MM7 two or three times. Signs of a classic there --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| Lopen 08/12/21 5:54:33 PM #45 | I think puts are probably safer since you're not dangling literal free food in front of market makers and hoping they're too greedy to just take the free money. I really don't like being at the mercy of anything beyond the stock price seems like you're just layering more risk on something that's already more risky than a standard investment to begin with. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| Lopen 08/12/21 5:42:56 PM #43 | It's SIMILAR but I suspect this strategy would have been punished in all but the most extreme cases of volatility, and that includes stuff like the Chinese EV fad last year. It really shouldn't work. I know you're probably thinking I'm tinfoil hatting but my first job out of college was to help design a machine learning algorithm to game when to buy and sell options based on volatility and a bunch of other factors. There are plenty of automated algorithms out there and if you think you're getting free money with a pure options play it's pretty unlikely you actually are. If there's no risk you're going to get destroyed like this every time, and if you aren't getting destroyed there's probably more risk to what you're doing than you're aware of and you just happened to pick right. (Note said work was not for an actual market maker, just a random dude with a ton of money, but he had a lot of data to work off of! I'm sure market makers have that much more to devote to automation based on whatever) --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| Lopen 08/12/21 4:58:09 PM #41 | Forceful_Dragon posted... Is it possible to deliberately go through different market makers for each side of the 2 week/3 month equation? Or does that not matter because it will all still be visible to all of them? I am pretty sure all the data is available to all market makers Maybe all people too, if you're looking in the right place. That's why we can see things like open interest on options and institutional ownership and stuff like that. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| Lopen 08/12/21 4:51:12 PM #37 | masterplum posted... Worked on Gamestop, AMC, and would have worked on Robinhood if I didn't screw up. Robinhood's volatility never touched either of those two though. Like I think the only reason it worked for those two is because the time value on those two for shorter term options is significantly higher than Robinhood's ever was. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| Lopen 08/12/21 4:49:14 PM #35 | masterplum posted... They usually don't get excercised. There are reasons to buy in the money calls where you want to hold them. For example I bought some deep in the money cracker barrel calls as a form of leverage. Instead of buying 15 shares for $2000, I bought a $2000 deep ITM call which means I'm getting 6X leverage back for my money BUYING calls does not have the same risk you're describing as you're not at the mercy of anything being exercised Have you SOLD deep in the money calls often when your collateral was long calls and not shares? It seems like something where you should get punished every time unless the stock price immediately moves down. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| Lopen 08/12/21 4:45:36 PM #32 | That's the gotcha yeah If you sell a call that's deep in the money, the value of letting it run out is very small as there isn't a realistic risk of it falling to that level-- it's better as the market maker to exercise and lose the value and use that to kill longer options So this supposedly "not really" difference is lost. I have a lot of doubt that you have made a lot of money doing it because it doesn't seem like something that should work very often unless the stock price IMMEDIATELY drops down. I mean maybe that has always happened in which case I'd probably consider that you being lucky rather than the strategy being particularly good, because this hole is literally always baked in there and they know the options you hold. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| Lopen 08/12/21 4:36:00 PM #25 | Forceful_Dragon posted... But I guess what i don't understand is that if the price goes to $40 and if the 2 week calls get exercised, couldn't plum just exercise the 2 month call and turn the whole thing into a wash? The point is Plum paid a considerably higher amount for the 2 month call than he received for selling the 2 week call It is ultimately about reducing risk if the stock price moves up. If the market maker can force purchased 2 month calls to be taken out of play for the price of a 2 week call, they will do so. It takes away Plum's ability to make gains when the stock price goes up after the 2 week window expires-- it also takes away his ability to sell more calls. I mean ultimately the math is that he paid X and received Y, and Y is a few hundred dollars lower than X, and market maker knows this as this information is available to them if you're and is just going to take the difference between Y and X because it's free money to do so. Risk free money is always better. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| Lopen 08/12/21 4:16:54 PM #20 | The thing is when you buy or sell options it's generally not going directly to a person but rather through a market maker who fulfills both ends of the contract. So you're buying the right to buy 100 shares at $30 for 2 months You're also selling the right to have someone buy 100 shares at $30 for 2 weeks In the buying case you have the right to exercise at any time, even though you generally wouldn't before expiry Similarly for the selling, they have the right to exercise against you. For in the money options, while it could cost them a small amount of profit to do so, it doesn't cost them money to do it as they're getting shares at cheaper than market value, and they are sending the value of your purchased contract to 0 by doing that The gist is if they can force you out of your bought 2 month position for less cost than you spent on the contract they will as they make money doing so, since they're both the buyer and the seller of the contracts Basically the market maker's whole goal is to make options make you lose money since that money goes straight into their pocket. Manipulation of stock price by short selling is one way we've heard a lot of as of late but forcing early exercise of contracts with a lot of time on them is certainly a thing they can do too. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| Lopen 08/12/21 3:18:50 PM #18 | The market maker probably has algorithms watching for stuff like that. Just comb the data and look for people who think they're smarter than they are, punish them for it. $500 is small fry but it's literally free money as they already have the data analysis running. It's not an issue of being worth the time. They aren't exerting any effort to take your money. Like I am probably coming off as a jerk here but you're playing off something as bad luck when it happened 4 times in a row and lost you money on paper every time. I'm just trying to save you from losing money again. If your strategy has a hole particularly in low volume holdings you're going to get pushed into that hole you dug for yourself every time. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| Lopen 08/12/21 2:55:00 PM #15 | The thing is I think they know that. It's not digestible by you and I but all transactions are public record to my knowledge and market makers can see vulnerable positions like that Like all these spreads you have are in plain view as I understand it if you can sift through all the buys and sells made in a day If they can force you to exercise long calls to cover that is a net positive to them as the premium you pay for the long calls is higher than the premium you receive for the short ones. I mean you can think it's "luck" but I think if you keep doing that you're going to get burned every time-- better to just use this to learn instead --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| Lopen 08/12/21 2:04:27 PM #13 | Yeah uhh I think a lot of that information is readily available if you have the right resources (ie you're a market maker). I don't believe it was a coincidence you were getting assigned. Lesson to learn there is not do spreads where execution means you lose money ever. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| Lopen 08/12/21 1:46:13 PM #10 | Were you selling naked calls or puts or something? I'm not sure how getting assigned should matter. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| Lopen 08/12/21 12:42:20 PM #8 | Main one I'm having my eyes on right now is Coupang. The drop seems like a ridiculous overreaction to a one time problem that it seems like they patched very well (huge fire that cost $350 million-- reason I say they patched really well is a lot of the costs came for helping out their small business merchants-- seems like good PR for the company). I feel like given its presence in South Korea and Korea's overall GDP 100b market cap seems achieveable in the near future which would translate to stock price of $50 or so. I really wanna go with the 2023 40c it looks easily in the money by the time that date rolls around-- may just hold off a bit and go with the 2024s though. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| Lopen 08/12/21 12:37:38 PM #7 | ARRY is good stuff. I may convert these calls into shares when they expire (got 5 for Oct and 5 for Jan 2022). There is a steel bottleneck that is upping their costs but that price is going to level out and the stock price should be back up to the $20-$30 range in no time. Also Blackrock has apparently pledged to invest 500m in them which should bring the price up-- also suspect it's been being shorted based on the graph so it could spike hard. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| Lopen 08/12/21 11:51:03 AM #4 | My $17.50 ARRY calls looking strong right about now. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 31 |
| Lopen 08/11/21 10:35:59 AM #493 | The big glaring problem is fubo can't broadcast TNT or TBS and they have the lion's share of NBA stuff. Getting the Turner stuff back pretty much patches their last major hole and is a good catalyst to look forward to that isn't related to gambling. They've been cutting some channels like Lifetime and The History Channel lately so I do think they are working towards that --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 31 |
| Lopen 08/11/21 10:27:13 AM #492 | FUBO is basically streaming Cable TV with some weird side channels for things like Cubs baseball and world cup qualifiers So I mean you're right that NBC owns the rights to broadcast the Olympics but FUBO still can broadcast the Olympics as they broadcast NBC. It is a bit of a strange setup but it is the only way they can make a run at being the Netflix of Sports so I think it's a smart foundation for a sports streaming service. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 31 |
| Lopen 08/11/21 9:53:18 AM #489 | Personally I see the gambling being a bit of a gimmick. Mostly to draw eyeballs to the streaming service. I mean maybe the gambling becomes lucrative but I wouldn't be on the stock if I just saw it as gambling platform upside. People call it the Netflix of sports and honestly that's the big market segment of streaming services that I think has a lot of room to improve. It clearly isn't the Netflix of sports right now but if it became that it would be incredibly profitable because right now you pretty much don't have a particularly good streaming option for Sports in the way you do movies or TV (or anime or any number of niche things) --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 31 |
| Lopen 08/11/21 8:08:37 AM #487 | The most exciting part of all this to me is the EPS loss has decreased to -$0.38 which seems CONSIDERABLY more manageable compared to -$1.50 and -$2.50 The bear argument for FUBO has always been that the service model isn't profitable if the gambling doesn't pay off. I believe with these numbers we have evidence it will be with sufficient subscribers, which are growing pretty rapidly. Makes me really sure the offering isn't going to be used until we have proof of concept on the sports book to rapidly expand that, and it'll probably be done at well above these prices so dilution will be minimized. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 31 |
| Lopen 08/10/21 4:47:27 PM #483 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_1kX9PoluI I'm so excited. Especially since I have a handful of end of month $30 calls. Don't sell below $40 imo. It'll keep running if you do. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 31 |
| Lopen 08/10/21 4:34:06 PM #482 | Revenue way up Guidance up EPS beats estimate Live Q&A with Gandler at 5:30 EST FUBO gonna rip this week. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Do you like this character? Day 1334: Doom Slayer (DOOM) |
| Lopen 08/04/21 11:08:17 PM #17 | Yes --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1366 |
| Lopen 08/04/21 7:53:18 PM #460 | I honestly think Street Fighter 2 might need the Turbo to show its true strength Like if you're old enough to remember the SNES days, there's a difference SF2 Turbo was awesome SF2 was... I mean it was cool, but... SF2T > MK2 > SF2 seems plausible to me --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | All-Purpose Wrestling Topic Part 507: The Peacemaker's Here |
| Lopen 08/04/21 7:13:49 PM #140 | Like seriously Jack Evans. Super nothing lower card guy. I love Jack Evans. Back when I was watching some episodes and not all religiously, I would go out of my way to watch AEW episodes with Jack Evans. He no longer serves as a draw to me watching the show if you have him on every episode, you know? I remember back late 90s WCW I would get excited to see MORTIS. He wasn't on NEARLY every week. Who has WWE had that has that kinda draw for me in the past 15 years? Like, no one, man. They're either always on TV or never on TV. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | All-Purpose Wrestling Topic Part 507: The Peacemaker's Here |
| Lopen 08/04/21 7:08:25 PM #139 | Haven't watched wrestling in almost a year but I will just say this Dudes who you want to get over appearing on TV every week is what makes WWE feel stale and if you think that AEW not showing their guys they're pushing on TV every week is a mistake you forget how late 90s wrestling was structured and probably are playing too much TEW The only guys who should be there every week are the absolute top acts. And you don't even need every top act on TV either. Just enough to create hype for the show The undercard? Push as many as you can but gradually. People won't forget they exist if they're only on every other week I promise --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Plums 52 favorite Magic cards |
| Lopen 08/04/21 12:20:16 AM #203 | Ephemerate looks awesome I kinda stopped playing MtG regularly by the time it was released but man that is awesome. I was all about the blink tech before it was actually good. Had an Angel of Despair deck using like that Kamigawa thing that blinked stuff and had it come back with a +1/+1 counter. As close to a #1 that works for me as you could realistically hope to get. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Save My Favorite Final Fantasy Characters XXIII: Day 35 [smfffc] |
| Lopen 07/31/21 2:26:04 PM #69 | Algus --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Plums 52 favorite Magic cards |
| Lopen 07/30/21 7:42:13 PM #175 | Fun fact Polar Kraken's arguably even worse bro Leviathan would probably be on my list. I love giant piles of crap too. That pick resonates with me. And Phyrexian Dreadnaught (who actually isn't that bad these days-- he can be abused with things that suppress come into play effects) --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Save My Favorite Final Fantasy Characters XXIII: Day 34 [smfffc] |
| Lopen 07/30/21 5:35:15 PM #52 | Algus --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Plums 52 favorite Magic cards |
| Lopen 07/29/21 3:47:14 PM #146 | I think that unglued card is too unglued for me. Too complicated to be funny which I realize is the point but it was a failed joke to begin with for me --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Save My Favorite Final Fantasy Characters XXIII: Day 32 [smfffc] |
| Lopen 07/28/21 8:38:13 PM #196 | Jackpot. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Do you like this character? Day 1332: Porky Pig (Looney Tunes) |
| Lopen 07/28/21 5:53:10 PM #13 | He is one of the best Looney Tunes characters No --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Plums 52 favorite Magic cards |
| Lopen 07/28/21 5:49:56 PM #133 | At my middle school all Circle of Protections were soft banned. Some dude used COP Black and Pestilence/Lord of the Pit to prevent damage to himself. I think most people were alright with that. I thought it was super cool. Then eventually someone who was using a black deck played him and wasn't really that hindered by the Circle naturally working and we all realized that the Circles of Protection weren't really that good. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Save My Favorite Final Fantasy Characters XXIII: Day 32 [smfffc] |
| Lopen 07/28/21 4:55:05 PM #15 | Algus --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Plums 52 favorite Magic cards |
| Lopen 07/27/21 5:27:28 PM #109 | I overuse Darksteel Ingot I think that was one of the first all color artifacts that didn't suck that was common so I have a ton of them and have a fondness for the safety of the unkillable mana --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Save My Favorite Final Fantasy Characters XXIII: Day 31 [smfffc] |
| Lopen 07/27/21 5:24:35 PM #139 | Doomtrain --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Plums 52 favorite Magic cards |
| Lopen 07/27/21 9:28:51 AM #92 | Dack Fayden has always bugged me because his name sounds like some Star Wars EU character reject. I have no problem with any other Planeswalker/Legend name in this way He seems like an interesting enough play and I know I've seen him used from time to time but he's never really left a bigger impression on me than that --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Save My Favorite Final Fantasy Characters XXIII: Day 30 [smfffc] |
| Lopen 07/26/21 2:06:13 PM #112 | Leblanc --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Save My Favorite Final Fantasy Characters XXIII: Day 30 [smfffc] |
| Lopen 07/26/21 12:56:32 PM #52 | Algus --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | MCU General 3: Loki Loki Panic |
| Lopen 07/26/21 11:23:48 AM #376 | kevwaffles posted... becomes a major focus point for Thor throughout the movie. This is a HUGE stretch imo I'm not saying people should forget Loki got killed by Thanos but the "wait what" of Loki poofing away draws attention too-- that was honestly a big discussion point after the movie among people who I know just because it was an unresolved plot thread. Basically if you're not paying a lot of attention you might forget either, if you are you won't forget either That being said Loki coming back will have more than adequate explanation in the movies I'm sure. Thor's reaction to him being back will prompt an easy information from Loki about it --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 31 |
| Lopen 07/26/21 11:16:04 AM #370 | Sunroof posted... So $5.20 * 38 contracts is nearly $20,000. Thats way more than the $6200 in premium I got. Not worth. ... wait did you SELL $29.5 calls on Riot? So I mean yeah just ride them out. Don't close them then you're setting yourself up to lose $14k --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 31 |
| Lopen 07/26/21 10:51:35 AM #366 | I see the bid on that at $5.20x100. Not sure why you can't just limit sell it at $5.20 --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
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