Lurker > Lopen

Leanansidhe posted...

Some of the powers being useless could be another hedge against unchecked hero powers.

I feel like being able to hit scum would be enough of a hedge that you shouldn't need it? Especially since all the skills aren't super good from what we've seen (bodyguard is one of the weaker protects and tracker is one of the weaker scans)

I mean who knows I guess this is indeed a very rng setup no matter how you slice it

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Lopen posted...

Like right now if we assume it's just princesses

.. it doesn't make sense at all really"

Lopen is scatterbrained a bit

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It's less that scum can go into the masonry and more that scum are HALF of what goes into the masonry, which is stupid. However if the idea of it being a princess masonry is all speculation then who knows if that even matters. I don't know this character-- is there a thematic mason grouping the Princess would have other than other princesses? Like right now if we assume it's just princesses

I feel like Han just tossing you in a Discord server and telling you literally nothing is a bit weird though. Especially the claim that you said he gave you no response at all when you asked if you had a night action. Shouldn't you have gotten an updated role PM like happened with 5tar and MZero that gave you some sort of hint of how things operate? What did your role name change from and to?

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I don't like Death's power because I don't feel it makes sense given the setup, and I don't feel he's making an honest attempt at digesting the game, particularly with that power in mind. Like this doesn't make any sense to me as a post from someone who has some sorta Princess Discord power:

htaeD posted...

but I am trying to compare current Chris to past scumChris (and past townBen to current Ben)

Why are you even thinking about scumChris as a realistic possibility? Like Chris is the only person in the game that's claimed a princess role, right? So if he's scum, what then? You can mason with a scum princess? He has an ability that potentially makes him a mason buddy with 1+ scum (the fact that scum could go into that masonry is suspicious to begin with), and no town? That makes wayyy less sense than Ben's weak doctor role. Why aren't you trying to get me to claim flavor harder? I know that's what I'd be doing if I had that power-- like if I'm in your shoes, I'm seeing if Lopen claims a princess, which would inherently feel a bit more credible to give some weight to your power, in an attempt to town clear Lopen.

I see a bunch of weak pawing at suspicions today-- same I've seen all game from you.

##Vote: Death

What say thee?

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Death what are the chances that Chris is scum to you?

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Death do you think Ben's claim is possibly legit?

I think only me and Chris actually believe it's possibly a role and everyone else is like "1000% DENIED"

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I know Ben lies as town all the time that's why I didn't go harder on him being scum when I initially doubted the claim made sense

I'm asking you what do you think his motives are as town vs scum here. It can't be as simple as "he's wacky!" Usually he has a reason to do it even if it's a bad one.

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Fastbreak posted...

Ben is 1000% lieing

Its just is he lieing town or scum

In what scenario do you think a lying town Ben exists?

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I guess you're right.

I, truth be told, never read the end of topic 6 as I was gone most of the weekend because I didn't really give a crap about mafia then, but it seems like Lea did step it up a bit towards the end there after glancing through it a bit. Enough that even if your standards for "quality content" are higher than mine I could see having a change of heart based on it.

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Hbthebattle posted...

Plus, she's been acting far more towny in her play from Day 3 on IMO.

Do you have any examples that come to mind? I don't need exact posts, just generalized things she did then.

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Too reasonable is a scumtell what is wrong with the world. Why you do this Lea? I thought we were cool. All my work to poc-- defend you for naught

Listen I think the only reason I'm seeming maybe too reasonable is because it's work to try and go super hard on hb and because I have doubts as to whether hb or scare look worse right now so I'm kinda letting it pan out because I think both of them being scum simply doesn't work given how day 2 went.

I think if I went harder on hb I could probably generate the right amount of being unreasonable to satisfy you but I don't really want to dig for it. There's more immediate feedback and reward just posting now than doing ISO stuff.

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I haven't claimed

And now I really don't want to with all this "LopenFear" talk going around let's put it off

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I'm always entirely reasonable it's the rest of the players that usually aren't :(

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Fastbreak posted...

Chris, me, ulti would function just fine as a team and we would have no need to get that fancy at all.

Fastbreak posted... (in a Lopen quote)

But like, if your scumteam has Chris and Scare in it that's probably too advanced for them to want to bother with (and also requires Ulti to deliberately put a hole in his vote post which again, seems too advanced given my likely effort level from him)

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Leanansidhe posted...

He completely dropped an easy mislynch based on new info (me).

Here's a question

Hb why did you drop the lynch on Lea?

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I mean Chris was right that an unconditional assassin is a dumb role to have. I also don't think having a role to protect a player is not okay if that's what the atmosphere is-- you're balancing these games FOR b8 games so if that's how b8 games tend to go then why not. Maybe it's because I sympathize with his plight as there a time long long ago on B8 where I was in the Chris "always killed on N1" role for a while-- so much so that I intentionally played scummy in a game to try and avoid that and was lynched day 1 instead. So I mean, I get it.

I guess the one thing is scum may not know there ISN'T some form of unconditional doctor so as long as they don't have an assassin they kinda both have an assassin kill and don't because while there isn't a doctor they don't know that you know? But I just feel the doctor is a more "core" role necessary for the game to flow well than a cop, which isn't as harmful to unlock later in the game.

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htaeD posted...

I think you under-estimate how bad Ulti looked in that moment.

I actually would not have noticed if Scare hadn't pointed out the blatant contradiction in his previous posts, and I suspect with the time limit a lot of people wouldn't have. Granted I was on Chris for much of the day so maybe I wasn't fully digesting his vote as a potential negative because hey I thought Chris was likely scum then.

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Hbthebattle posted...

The games setup is explicitly experimental, and clearly the other core role, some form of investigative role, is also locked behind the Heroes. And based on how the Heroes both died immediately, scum likely knows the game structure in some form. And based on whos been shot, Scum has no fear of killing power. Why havent they shot Ben?

If Chris's reads haven't been on point then scum shouldn't feel a need to devote two kills to getting rid of Chris. I think the big thing you can gather from this is (and I'm sure you know where I'm going) Lea is likely town, because if you look at Chris's game he's wasted like 3 days on her and this is the only day he's really drifted off that lead with much significance-- yeah he went off on a red tangent but that one was wrong too.

Keep in mind Ben was a lynch leader early and after claiming still had me and others going after that as a likely bogus claim. I see him as an easy piece to keep on the board as well, and leaving him implicates Chris too as a secondary benefit.

Now, the difference between scanning and protection to me is very different. Protection not existing at all gives scum free reign to kill anyone, which can be antifun for certain players as they just get axed unconditionally based on their rep. I think a game without scanning out of the gate is a bit more reasonable.

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Hbthebattle posted...

His claim makes no sense with everyone else being a Vanilla,

Do you think a game with all protective roles being gated behind unlocks makes sense though? I don't. It feels more like enforcing a theme for the sake of being gimmicky than the best thing for balance.

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htaeD posted...

That presumes that Ulti expected his bus to work at all.

Chris was at 4 votes at the time and I wasn't on him

If Scare doesn't jump off it absolutely works.

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I think doctor and cop are probably locks but I mean who knows I guess.

We have a Scum Princess that flipped-- would she get recruited in too and falsely clear a scum potentially? That makes Death's role feel trappy more than anything. Isn't the only claimed princess other than Death Chris?

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Leanansidhe posted...

Lopen what flavour turns into cop?

I don't know enough about Adventure Time to tell you this. Do you have a guess?

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Hbthebattle posted...

What? You'd think being confirmed town would make Ulti less active, not more. This doesn't make any sense.

It makes him have to play the game longer because he's not being considered to be lynched and he's also removing a strong ally in Chris to do so. It's easier for him to just be mostly idle the whole time and not rock the boat, or be a sacrificial lamb to clear a scum. It doesn't make sense for him to want to confirm himself at that price.

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Leanansidhe posted...

I don't know what world this scum Ulti who is too timid to bus Chris is from

Also for the record I've never argued this. I think Chris has but whatever, Chris is an egomaniac sometimes-- it's fine.

I said scum Ulti would not be motivated enough to bus scum Chris, because if he bags scum Chris there he becomes town "confirmed" to some level and I don't feel he'd want to buckle down for the long game in a game he posted 3 times in, made a contradiction in 2/3 of those posts, and signed up as a replace in.

The only way it makes sense is if they anticipate the Scare gambit, which only makes sense if Scare is ALSO scum. Really if you think Chris is scum I think the second natural scum becomes Scare all things considered, because I only buy that interaction as a three scum super gambit to super clear a player that isn't Ulti. But like, if your scumteam has Chris and Scare in it that's probably too advanced for them to want to bother with (and also requires Ulti to deliberately put a hole in his vote post which again, seems too advanced given my likely effort level from him), so it doesn't really make sense that way either. A two scum gambit to make Scare sit pretty makes more sense, or Scare being town and honestly catching scum (in which case I, again, like Hb as scum who joined the train as he's the jump that made the least sense).

Anyway I think you're stretching too hard to lynch Chris here to the point where you're not understanding the interactions between me and him very well nor are you understanding my arguments-- probably because he's been pissing you off this game which is fair. You can better prove him wrong by just calming down and analyzing the situation rather than going super bloodlust here. Be sure Chris is scum before you lynch him. I think setup meta + day 2 end of day not really making sense with scum Chris SHOULD be enough to sell you on its own.

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Leanansidhe posted...

When Lopen thought Chris was scum, Chris said he had famously bad logic, cost town games. Now that Lopen thinks Chris is town, now he has excellent logic, truly advanced thought process

Did Chris actually get that bad with me this game? Do you have a post where he said this? I felt he got that bad in Godzilla mafia but not here.

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

but if we can't make it past how chris/ben makes absolutely no sense for a variety of reasons (reasons I think lopen came to quickly)

Chris Ben doesn't make sense because I feel you've been cleared for other reasons which I don't expect everyone to come to easily so I'll go into it one more time. If I had my super conspiracy hat on I see the logic behind it (you're riding it as an excuse to be alive and your lynch choices haven't been super pristine) but you don't really make sense as scum unless you think red could never play poorly enough to fool you into thinking he's scum as town, which I don't. Red has had plenty of off games particularly as of late.

As for why I think you're town, Chris is a combination of setup meta (there is probably a doctor to be enabled and no one has countered that) and mostly thinking I have a pretty good idea of how Ulti ticks. Scum Ulti absolutely sees a reeling town Sir Chris and wants to make history. The alternative theory and is they're both scum and Ulti is doing this as a bus tactic to clear himself. Here's the problem with that though: if you subscribe to the Ulti was interacting with scum theory, scare as scum bussing Ulti via trap to clear himself makes a lot more sense as Ulti only signed up as a replace and hardly posted, and said he would be busy before and during game. I highly doubt Ulti had a lot of interest in becoming confirmed town and playing a long game.

Now honestly Ben I only really feel is town due to it clicking with setup meta as we learn more about it. Like all the protection needing to be enabled means there's no protection for an indeterminate amount of time so I feel it would be more balanced to have a weak protective role in the setup to stop that.

I think the best case is on Hb by far coming into the day, but I'm coming around on scare based on today and analyzing the end of day 2 potentially involving scum-scum bussing as a play. Nothing about him being mortally convinced red was right about Chris being scum really makes sense in my eyes. I will say the Scare + Hb scumteam doesn't really work for me though, which is why I'm hesitant to vote him. I don't buy scum doubling down on Ulti early there, and I'd say other than the red hero worship scare has looked better.

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ScareChan posted...

Red's will is an ace to a king.

Based on what that's what I need to know

I explicitly asked him yesterday to skip the middle man and say why Chris was scum and he couldn't do it

Does the gut of a player mean that much to you? A gut that's conditional upon his death no less? Why would you respect that so much? If he can't say why Chris is scum in game isn't that just ego rather than something of value?


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... dammit. Called out.

Hey Lea vote Scare for me so I can threaten him properly. (It's like me having a double vote but with more teamwork)

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Hey Scare I was empowered to be town double voter give us the tell within 117 minutes or I'll slay you dead.

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Also Lea come back we can make more bad jokes to cheer you up

How many Scarechans does it take to screw in a lightbulb?

Only one but he's got better things to do with his night action (IF YOU GET WHAT I MEAN!!!!)

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In what way did he react poorly? Explain how it was different from when he was suspected day 2

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Why can you trust red? He had a bad game either way. Red didn't have a single reason Chris was scum other than knowing that he himself was town and Chris was voting him. And Chris was voting him for reasons you ultimately felt were good.

I feel like you should trust your read more than his.

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Lea did red flipping town mean anything to you and your Chris suspicion?

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I'm not really believing you're that convinced by red here. It seems a little forced.

Like if you have a town tell and also believe in that tell enough to not release it, and you yourself voted Red yesterday, but red's word outweighs that in spite of all of that? Why does it make sense?


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Chris my question was more about the you + red interaction and how to deal with fear mongering not you being mislynched as town in and of itself. Like red seemed VERY PROUD that you guys never mislynched one another and was saying LYNCH YOU 100% when he flips town. Did you think this would matter today or what?

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Scare is your vote real or are you just trying to reuse a trick and "AHA!" scum who follows you to Chris again

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So it sounds like you took that fairly well Chris. Did you think about the town town mislynch streak coming to an end? Did you think some people would believe Red's fearmongering and that you might have some undue pressure today? Did you think about how to avert that?

And no Ben I don't really agree. I don't see Lea leaning into vote hopping in a vague attempt to town clear herself especially when she already has suspicion on her for her doing town Lea things and I'm the only one who apparently tries to dissect how her personality would lend to town play vs scum play. Like at that point scum Lea is just frustrated and kinda quietly checks out in the most town destructive way I think.

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Chris what was your reaction when red flipped town? How much did you care?

Also Ben I think Hb is scum and am trying to determine the second one today. I've already explained how I would GUESS scum Lea is different (never seen it) in that I expected she would move votes around less to stir up a bit less suspicion and stifle town more. Town Lea thinks pressuring randos is good, so scum Lea probably plays a bit more conservative with it, particularly once suspicion is already on her.

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What? Really? Well okay,

So did you not come into the day upset at all? Cause you seemed okay to start and then were like rarghhrhg

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Also Chris what are you actually mad about here like break it down for me be as brief as you can. Like straight up just give reasons no fluff rants.

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Scare is that a real vote? For real?

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Wow what a dis

Disco Inferno is way more relevant these days than Val Venis

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I think the bigger problem is how glaringly obvious it is it's going to be Baszler who wins

The only other one you could remotely humor would be Asuka. At that point you might as well just do a singles match.

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Tactics

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Sorry. Couldn't log in for last night for some reason

Cliff notes version of Hb case:

Has languished into a very low effort game now that the pressure is off him due to being "town cleared." This reminds me of Godzilla Mafia where he got busted when Ulti said he would always mayor him guaranteed.

Spent a ton of time prodding Lea day 2 but then jumped to Ulti based off "whatever". Feel like he was just trying to park his vote then it exploded too quick-- note he laid groundwork to get off Ulti too (suspicious Lea and I voted him)

People got on him early day 1 for overblown rage at Corrik and I don't fully know why that case was dropped especially seeing as Corrik flipped town

Now you may not think this is much but I think this is better than the case on red currently, and much better than the one on Chris

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Well red I feel the case has been less to not lynch you and more to lynch Chris if you flip town

If you're town we should reduce that to why Chris is scum in a vacuum and just lynch him instead.

Or let's just put aside the clash of egos, which is really what this feels like, and lynch Hb who has a better case than either of you

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Like I guess what I'm saying is it always plots action for the next day never the current day. Which kinda makes it feel like a waste of time in the moment.

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Well the pairs angle means less if you are less willing to venture on which of the pairs you're actually removing from play I think is what he's getting at. Like it's never actually led to a push that I can recall. It's just conditional removals-- if A don't lynch B etc.

Like I feel like the pairs angle is not actually useful for solving the game in an immediate action sense. It only works in the long game but day to day it's changing and it doesn't provide information you can immediately use so practically speaking it's a lot of fluff, mostly.

I think you're overly fond of your spreadsheet and should focus on narrowing the scum.

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So here is what I'm thinking.

Town
Scare - That Ulti move doesn't happen if he's scum
Chris - Ulti does not bus scum Chris there
Lea - everything about Lea has seemed like town Lea this game and I feel like the fact that she's constantly had a train on her for stuff a town Lea does is a good sign she's actually town and scum are encouraging bad logic. The fact that I've had basically no one support me in saying "no this argument does not in fact make sense" when I've gone so hard on it and it's easy for a Lea scumbuddy to just piggyback "hey Lopen has a point here" basically townclears her in my eyes
Ben - While my belief that a scum making that claim makes sense is still there, taking into consideration that Chris is a vanilladoc honestly I think a crappy doctor makes this setup work. All protection in the game being gated behind unlocks would be weird I think. On the flip side a better protection role with Chris being doctor unlockable is too strong, so yeah to me it just kinda works
5tarscream - I didn't like his initial attack on Sultan, but in hindsight with it being right it looks good for him. His attack on Ulti was also spot on. Basically he has just seemed too right in reasonable ways for me to feel him as scum

So I'm putting 2/3 scum in Hb Death red. I don't know why Death and Hb have been town cleared by so many. They feel like they've been playing a very under the radar game since being soft cleared. Hb in particular I've had some grief with on his Ulti vote after being a Lea hunting vulture almost exclusively that day. Just didn't make sense at the time, and felt more like scum wanting to park a vote on a lynch that wouldn't happen and making a blunder in misreading the suspect lists of the people hanging around.

##vote: Hbthebattle

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Hammering a scan is less fun really. I'll let someone else do it.

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