Lurker > Lopen

Early vote in this match is funny

The super early people know Link actually wins all the time and anti-vote him
Then you've got the casual early people who still anti-vote FFVII

Cloud probably increases less than usual because of the super early vote, but I think Cloud can probably keep this below 55%
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Well guest better hope the real guest shows up because apparently I sandwiched guest pretty hard there.
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Lopen's unofficial analysis x1

Cool one a day. Does that mean I'm going to start putting effort in? Probably not.

Theory is that Link has boosted. Theory is also that Cloud may have deboosted. Practice we don't really know either of those yet. Cloud's number on Crono wasn't bad, and Alucard has looked good all contest. Ganondorf and Pika are SFF matches so ??? I have my doubts Link will hang super high numbers on non-Nintendo people. Ganondorf holding his own vs the 2004 match makes me think he's getting anti-voted in a non negligible way this year and Pikachu... well, who knows. Anyway yeah this match has almost always been 54-46 or closer so I'm just gonna go around that despite the apparent Seph drop and Zelda rise.

Link with 54.95%
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Yeah I get it I'm just saying I don't think that's a conclusion an AI would come to.

It's like a Chess AI that thinks only 2 moves ahead or something.

Like to me her goals should be a bit more nuanced than "I can pass as a human"
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Turns in pro wrestling
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I believe an AI would find more utility to leaving him alive as a tool than anything even if it can't "feel" and leaving him alive potentially makes the ending more interesting too cause you're like "did the AI successfully learn how to feel or did is it just using him even now" and "even if she can't feel if she finds it to be a +EV move to continue to fake it going forward is there a difference?" which are more interesting to me than "rar robot bad"

That's admittedly a bit more difficult to convey though so they took the heavy handed approach instead. Which is kind of my problem with the thing in general.
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I believe if you cook a french fry you're deep frying something that's already been deep fried, technically

It introduces the philosophical question of when does a french fry become a french fry and not a cut up potato
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Is RE2 remake in RE4 style? Cause I'd totally want that. RE2 with GRAPHIX no thanks.
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I'm going to do something basic here since it seems all I see you interact with here are movies and comics and wrestling

Video Game Characters
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1. Edge of Tomorrow
2. T2
3. The Matrix
Distant 4. Back to the Future
???. Moon

Is how I'd go. Hell Edge of Tomorrow and T2 might be my #1 and #2 on the list in general not just among the top 5.
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I assume it's because this one is more plot driven while the chastised movies are more action driven. Action movies get less of a pass even if the R rated stuff is actually plot necessary cause of a colored perception going in.

Ironically I actually do find the nudity less necessary in this movie than the sex in Terminator. I'm not sure it can quite swing PG-13 either way though. IIRC the probably R rated violence late in the movie adds more. Maybe you could get away with slightly offscreening it. Programmer was pretty foul mouthed too though so yeah... just a lot ways it uses that R in general, including just the subject matter as a whole.
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Let's break it down another way, dumb it down slightly for a hypothetical

Ness had 14% of the votes
Luigi had 43% of the votes
Big Boss had 43% of the votes.

Split inequalities as:

Big Boss > Luigi > Ness at 28%
Big Boss > Ness > Luigi at 15%
Ness > Big Boss > Luigi with 1%
Ness > Luigi > Big Boss with 13%
Luigi > Big Boss > Ness with with 17%
Luigi > Ness > Big Boss with 26%

That spread, and it's not one that necessarily fails the eye test to me (I feel like most people who would vote Ness over Big Boss are going to be Nintendo oriented in general), results in Luigi > Big Boss with 56% (13+43). It also results in Luigi > Ness with 71% (28+43) which isn't a red flag either.

And now I see you "get it" but whatever I'm not deleting this.
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pjbasis posted...

What? I mean that's what I'm saying then.

I'm saying it's ridiculous to think Luigi would get all of Ness's votes because Big Boss would surely get some too, and probably more than 10%

Big Boss gets none of Ness's votes from the Big Boss > Ness > Luigi inequality. He already has those.
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I had a feeling that was Inviso's #39 he was rooting for to go out. Just seems like the kinda movie that wouldn't work for him following these lists.

Personally I tend to agree with scarlet's take the most. Wasn't really buying the AI as a legit AI in this one, which kinda hurts the story. It seemed like a take of an AI that only really exists because this is the story you want to tell and AI working in this way for this story works best. Now if I just accept that an AI would act like that-- and it's not like, super hard because there are elements that work there like the performances in a vacuum are quite good-- getting past that I did enjoy the story, but it hurts the overall package quite a bit for me. Also agree with Inviso that there aren't any real memorable moments in it, which doesn't help.

That's not to say I'm super down on the movie but I probably would be one of the lower rankers on the list. It's fine but I think the meat of the appeal in the movie is in it telling a type of story which isn't told often which is... well, cool, but I can only give so much for that alone.

Good top 5 though. Haven't seen Moon. I guess I should probably make a point to do that at some point.
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pjbasis posted...

I think that's pretty ridiculous to assume unless you think Luigi vs Ness would be a 90-10 match

Not necessarily.

It just means Ness > Big Boss > Luigi vs Ness > Luigi > Big Boss is heavily lopsided in favor of Luigi being #2 in the inequality. Which to me makes sense. People who vote Ness are probably more inclined towards Luigi looking at the appeals of the characters.

Ness vs Luigi doesn't have to be 90-10 because Big Boss > Ness > Luigi inequality exists. I could see Luigi vs Ness being like 70-30 or higher (based on Luigi vs Tails) very easily though.
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John Cena and Randy Orton not draws you heard it here first
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Eddv posted...

They just want to run Becky/Charlotte again but know it's a stale matchup so they added Asuka.

I find this the most implausible theory because WWE realizing a matchup is stale is unprecedented
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Got Zell's USB on the daily

Definitely the COOLEST relic I've drawn yet, though he's a bit redundant with Sabin and you can't make 2 Ironfist Fire so will only ever use him for torment

HOWEVER he makes my FFVIII torment offense probably legit enough that if I ever got Selphie's Ultra I could tackle the D???
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Which one is nifl
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Max parlay on Cloud, Zelda
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TheRock1525 posted...

That's more clean wins than Rey had during his reign.

Yeah. It's more complicated than wins and losses cause Carmella was never treated like a legit top champion.
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TheRock1525 posted...

She went from apparently a legit top of the division talent to a joke character in a few months.

I'm as big a Carmella fan as you'll find and this is not really an accurate retelling of the events. She was basically the Rey Mysterio title run of the women's division (while somehow also being booked to have clean wins over Charlotte Flair and Asuka-- don't ask me how they did that but they did)
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Final score 1 box

Yeahhhh babay
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Lopen's Unofficial Analysisx2

Sonic v Snake
Not much to say on this one but I was clearly wrong on my speculation on Sonic and Snake. They both buck the trends set by their contemporaries in the bracket. Snake being okay, and Sonic sucking. Ulti style blowout coming.

Solid Snake with 57.78%

Tifa v Samus
I could link the match, but that's more effort than I wanna put in. I'll just ballpark what they got last time.

Samus with 57.78%
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You can also do the 6x magicite weekly missions for 3 million a week, and each event will give you 2 million if you do the realm mission on the highest difficulty thing
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Wait till the next fest where they'll give you 70 million gil
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The real joke will be when Baron Corbin moves to Smackdown just before the jump
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Robin F and hell even Palla/Catria hey I'm vaguely interested in refines for the first time in forever
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Master Chief wouldn't lose to King K. Rool dammit that Tails/Luigi result is SFF
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This is by far my favorite work of Bryan's in his WWE career. By far. First legit good Miz TV in forever.
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The big thing is a higher lead makes it harder to cut consistently too, thinking outside of just the raw number of votes needed to be cut

It's the only reason Halo couldn't make that 10000 vote turnaround on Castlevania back in the day
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Samus was awesome in Smash 64 entirely for that charge shot. That's a casual bait move for sure. It's no Pika thunder but it's up there.
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Yeah I actually play Link a decent amount in Smash these days but Link never really grew on me till Brawl and forward honestly. Just felt really awkward to play in the original and Melee to a lesser extent.
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Huh for some reason I thought Schala had a lot of fans
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azuarc posted...

WTF. In second chance, I took Mega Man in the winner's bracket and Pikachu in the loser's bracket. Screw you all.

This is me with Zelda/Snake and I bet it's going to go that way with them as well.
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LeonhartFour posted...

My stepbro picked Pikachu and spammed down-B like nobody's business, but he was also like 7 years old at the time.

20 years later and that's still the only thing I do with Pikachu.
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creativename posted...

Lopen said that he picked Mario with 60% without thinking Mario boosted relative to Samus.

Well I mean it was 13 years ago. Let's be honest-- I really don't know if 60% was chosen due to being super duper confident Mario would win beforehand. It's not like I do all my Oracles way ahead of time. I believe I probably took a posture of having more conviction in that 60% because I never liked the narrative that Mario needed to boost to win that match and win it easily. If he puts up less against Zero, yeah maybe I drop it to 57%? I really don't know.

I do recall thinking the match would not be close before the contest even began. Largely because of a SFF split among the Nintendo core bending his way despite Samus having better outside Nintendo support making her more strong indirectly.

I do also think that trying to say Mario needed to boost to win a match he won 60-40 reeks of damage control-- and I'm sorry to psychoanalyze, but it just does. And I do think it's more unreasonable to think that 04 Mario would lose than that he could potentially swing a 60-40 in 04, because SFF matches in general are strange and 04 had our most severe SFF beatings in contest history. Very possible that Mario was weaker in 04, but had more strength with SFF because of the way the voterbase was that year and it would offset. You think it's wrong, but you can't know that.

I mean for more theories, it's also possible that how much weaker Mario was in 04 vs 05 was exaggerated due to Crono artificially boosting for that match alone because he was 0-2 in heart breaking matches, meaning Mario's more accurate x-stat value is being set equal to Crono. It's also possible that Crono is underrated slightly in 04 due to very slight Link/Crono SFF. It's also possible that Samus is overrated slightly in 04 due to facing no direct Nintendo competition and being measured through the least tainted source of Cloud Strife.

Am I seriously arguing any of those? I don't know. I'm just saying there are a ton of angles to consider and you have to be damn sure none of it applies before seriously humoring a 60-40 can flip on its head. I'd say it's obvious that Mario 2k5 is stronger than 2k4. That much is clear. As far as how much stronger, how much stronger or not Samus is in 2k5 vs 2k4, or was in 2k4 relative to Mario, it's a lot of speculation limited by our small data pool to work with and a lot of things that just don't stat very well.
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Starfire
Rozalin
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If it was Raw is Corbin for a month I bet we could fall to 1.2
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Farah
Mint
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Haste_2 posted...

Sorry Lopen, but I've got to side with creative here. Mario went from 47% on Crono to 54% between 2004 and 2005. That's a 7% swing without SFF. Add in SFF and I think a 10% swing is possible. Samus beating Mario in 2004 seems very plausible, if you assume Samus didn't gain much between '04 and '05.

I think that's a big if, is the main thing. You have to completely ignore Kirby and Ganondorf and then arbitrarily have Samus boost in 06 after everyone else boosted in 05 to make her clowning the men's half in 06 make sense. I do agree if you could trace a root to Mario series specifically like a big Mario game release, and discard Kirby and Ganondorf looking better, yeah, a 10% swing becomes less weird to stomach because double dipping would possibly make some sense, but even then... I would say it gets more and more difficult to successfully make a vote swing the further off you gotta go. It's not "only 3 more percent" it's 3 percent on top of the already almost never seen 7 percent. It's also more impressive to make a percentage swing from a lower starting percentage as your reference point. Like going from 40 to 50 is a more impressive than going from 45 to 55, even if they're both shifting the total by 10%. 40 to 50 is a 25% growth of your vote share while 45 to 55 is about 22%.

Throw all this together and yeah it stretches the limits of plausibility to the point where I'm thinking it's more likely that Mario > Samus in 04 with 60% than Samus > Mario in 04 with any percent. If we're talking "these should be completely non-controversial claims" I would say Samus beating Mario should fit that bill more than Mario not being able to break 55% in 04. I think neither one is completely non-controversial, mind you.

creativename posted...

Predicting Mario to win with 60% was *partially* luck if your reasoning had nothing to do with Mario rising substantially in relative strength to Samus. Not even a question. I am obviously not saying picking Mario to win via rSFF was luck.

So do you think if Mario got 60% here, that would have somehow helped *my* position? Obviously not. The better Samus did here, the more one can say SFF is wonky. The way you are looking at this match is just bizarre.

Well I seem to be remembering the idea of rSFF being considered something that was debatable even as recently as this year (Bowser vs Kirby for example I feel like consensus among most people aside from me and like transience was that Bowser was just stronger than Kirby this year and that Kirby SFFed Phoenix). Maybe it wasn't you who said that, but the idea that rSFF was a widely accepted thing, particularly in 2005, is definitely not true.

And no I think the result that helps your position is if Samus would have just won outright with >= 52% as the stats indicated. Mario winning with 60% again probably helps Ultis caveman chest beating position.

Anyway yeah this is fairly stupid, but whatever. It's the stats topic. Most discussions in here are pretty stupid. Just lean into it I say. If we were sidetracking a more interesting discussion then sure but it's a couple of rematches. Whatever.
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Mega Man vs Link could give us a hint. My gut is that this is closer to the "correct" result though. KP pointed out that the anon vote totals were way down in their first meeting due to the break
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Kaguya Houraisan (Touhou)
Kitana (Mortal Kombat)
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red sox 777 posted...

1. Samus > Mario indirectly right now.
2. Mario > Samus directly right now.
3. Samus > Mario directly is possible.

Also I will say that I've never said 3. I think Samus > Mario in 04 was not possible. There's a difference. And it mostly goes down to "a 60-40 isn't flipping in one year without damn good reason beyond it making the numbers look nicer"

In general though only Ulti has ever denied 3. He gives the Mario camp a bad name. I don't think most of us have denied that.

A lot of people have denied Mario > Samus directly was possible when Samus seemed stronger indirectly which we've seen pretty conclusively is wrong now. So to me that Mario/Samus match was a victory for Mario/Samus still being an easy Mario win even in 04 when he was weaker.

Like I just want people to admit they made a bad pick. Saying "nah the logic was there Mario just went up and screwed us" is such a copout, especially off the heels of a match where an indirectly weaker Mario won.

I make mistakes all the time in these things. Saying you made a bad pick isn't hard!
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UltimaterializerX posted...

Guys, level with me. When I was defending my Mario pick was I more or less annoying than Lopen is being?

Because if I was even close I am genuinely sorry.

Even at my worst I can't touch you in terms of being annoying you've nothing to fear your crown is very safe,
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Max on Snake and Tifa parlay
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I am happy to move on I just don't like people saying calling Mario > Samus by a lot was luck that depended upon Mario boosting when we literally just had a match that proved rSFF exists.

Like thinking Samus got SFFed less in the runback is not weird. It's something I expected, even, given how SFF matches have been going this contest. Spinning that as a point in favor of Samus/Mario being debatable in 04 is just like, what?
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UltimaterializerX posted...

Even *I* have stopped the Samus/Mario trash after yesterday. If you think Samus can ever win that match, you're vindicated. She can, at some point, potentially beat him.

My argument has always been a 60-40 ain't flipping over the time of one year. Never that Samus can't win. But I always said you dumbed that match down a lot. I called both matches almost perfectly though, so I mean, on this topic I at least have some credibility on understanding the dynamics at work.

Samus was wrong in 05 and it would be wrong in 04 because we've proven rSFF does exist which was really the only counterargument (most people disagreed rSFF was possible). Someday it might be right. I feel like that someday will probably be a few days from now, but yeah.
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creativename posted...

Lets be clear. Are you saying that Mario getting 60% on Samus in 2K4 is possible? Because i want to be clear on what we are disagreeing on. As Ive said, my claims are that Mario would get no more than 55% on Samus in 2K4, and it is not a 100% lock that he wins.

Are you claiming he pushes 60% in 2K4, and its a 100% lock he wins?

Well nothing is 100%, but I'd bet every penny to my name on Mario beating Samus in 04 if I could make some sort of wager via time machine.

It's certainly, to me, much much more likely that he gets close to 60% than loses the match. I'd say getting as much as 63% in 04 is more likely than losing. It's more likely a bit lower. It's nowhere near 52%. I feel confident in that much. Close SFF matches just didn't hapoen in 04. That contest is why SFF became a topic for discussion, because they were so lopsided.

creativename posted...

You want to act all knowing about what a different ecosystem would have resulted in, in 2K4, with different relative character strengths and before a site shift, and I just cant give this credibility.

I'm saying the ecosystem was different between NOW and 04/05. Not 04 and 05. 05 was just some characters boosting. The SFF patterns and antivoting habits and stuff weren't that much different. The overall dynamic of the site is way different now than it was then, mostly because of vote totals falling off a cliff.
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Xena (Xena: Warrior Princess)
Yuyuko Saigyouji (Touhou)
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