Lurker > Lopen

So anyway what I'm saying is

We need to vote someone that isn't red, chang, or hb.

I am willing to vote these today
Poppy
Kirby
Ulti

I will also put it on record that even if Poppy is town, MZero looks godawful today. Those hoops are real he's jumping through. If he's scum he either is trying to protect his mate or knows I'm wrong about Poppy being the target and it's showing.

Third party claiming miller to townclear themself also makes sense for what it's worth, even in a vacuum. And we know Lea was legit miller. Ultimate miller is a good setup trap, but it could also be good damage control because Lea counterclaimed.

Because I have to think Corrik's crazy rant about cult leaders meant something even if he wasn't targeted at night and a miller claim is a natural target for the day half of Corrik's ability.

Fun fact big meanieface Lopen has gotten zero of those DMs. That being said I will chill out with the passive aggressive stuff-- I think it's getting some people a bit edgy. I'm sorry, Han, for being slightly harsh with some of my responses to you.

Anyway theory

Sultan signed off on bussing him when he peaced out, knew he was doomed if Hb was killed today, tried to gain more town points by just killing him yesterday, knowing they could convert Hb today.

The two on Sultan yesterday that are on Hb today overcompensated for their votes

Ulti in particular took a long time to vote, sus.

Town
The rest

Roshan
Kirby

Scum
Poppy
Ulti
MZero

Looks like this game is about wrapped up. That being said, I'm willing to split the difference here and vote Kirby. It is very possible that being in the endgame now is Corrik's hint (if it is, your hint sucks!), and I am extremely confident Ulti is scum as well at this point and him being a plausible Corrik target would explain that.

And for as much as I hate the idea that Death would link that hard to Kirby as scummates, that... is possible, which would make Poppy look much better.

We do not lynch Hb though. Just not a smart lynch at this point. Resolving Corrik is paramount.

Ulti and Poppy both comment on how townish Hb is towards the end of yesterday

Poppy votes Hb today
Ulti votes Hb today

OK

So you've got two possibilites

Hb is scum. There isn't a lot to read, as the scum have no interest in which way the vote actually goes.
Hb is not scum. Poppy looks better. Chang looks better. Death looks worse, Ulti looks worse. Kirby looks worse.

In either case, I think me and SBell look very town as we are the only ones propping Sultan's vote total up to make this competitive. Which is good. I think I need to move Sbell back up my town list and just accept he's paranoid of me as scum. Although I do recall the idea that Sbell liked bussing scum being brought up in the past. I think Chang looks like town here too, as Death's vote positions Hb to run away with it if he doesn't join the lynch when he does.

So Poppy, Lea, Ulti, Kirby, those are kinda null. If anything I call Ulti's suspicious as it seemed like he was clearly leaning Sultan for some time but wasn't committing.

Sultan likely bounced because I was frustrating him with my tenacity and he legitimately didn't have a lot of time to play-- it's not because it was a foregone conclusion he would be lynched. I could not get him above 2 votes for a very long time. For as much as I called him a liar, I do believe he didn't have a lot of time to play the game, his reactions and his claims of what he was doing with his game time are what I didn't believe.

I need to reread Ulti in particular at that last stretch and see how much indication he gave to humoring hb. I feel like he went hard on Sultan and it's weird to not just put your vote down sooner if you're doing that.

That seems like twice now that MZero seems like he's faking exasperation tbh.

So first of all Han. I'm not sure how you could say Sultan is a foregone conclusion. Here is two hours before the end of day.

[3] - hb - MZero, (Poppy), Kirby, (Lea), (Lopen), Lea
[2] - Sultan - (Poppy), (MZero), Lopen, Sbell
[1] - Kirby - (Lea), (Lopen), (Ulti), (Corrik), (Lopen), (Lea), (Sultan), hb
[1] - Red - Poppy, (Death)
[1] - Poppy - Corrik
[1] - Ulti - (Sultan), (Lea), (Lopen), Sultan
[1] - Lea - (Ulti), (Kirby), (Ctes), Ctes.
[0] - Corrik - (Lea)
[0] - Han - (Lea), (Lopen), (Kirby), (Sbell)
[0] - Lopen - (Kirby)

Two hours before lynch, the votals look like this. Death then follows up by pushing the lead forward on Hb. Then Chang goes on Sultan. Ulti starts building a case on Sultan, but DOES NOT VOTE HIM. This is actually very important to me as it shows that Ulti is kinda leaving the door open to vote whichever and not burying Sultan then and there.

[4] - hb - MZero, (Poppy), Kirby, (Lea), (Lopen), Lea, Death
[3] - Sultan - (Poppy), (MZero), Lopen, Sbell, Chang

Poppy votes Sultan improperly, then votes him just minutes before deadline.

[4] - hb - MZero, (Poppy), Kirby, (Lea), (Lopen), Lea, Death
[4] - Sultan - (Poppy), (MZero), Lopen, Sbell, Chang, Poppy

Then finally Ulti + Lea jump over to Sultan, and Kirby in the last second, leaving

[7] - Sultan - (Poppy), (MZero), Lopen, Sbell, Chang, Poppy, Lea, Ulti, Kirby
[2] - hb - MZero, (Poppy), (Kirby), (Lea), (Lopen), (Lea), Death

This is actually... a lot more interesting than it seems, now. I'm glad you encouraged me to do this, Han. Thoughts to follow.

MZero posted...

He wasn't even voting Poppy yet when he posted that, and that whole paragraph is about Kirby. You say I jump through hoops, you're literally taking the one word from that entire post that is even tangentially related to Poppy.

He mentions his vote, based on nothing

Which to me is a hint of "look at what my vote ends the day on" it has nothing to do with whether he was on Poppy at the time

The fact that he was as town around for the lynch, chose not reassign it to Hb or Sultan, that to me is telling

HanOfTheNekos posted...

I do think Sultan was bussed early enough. Not as early as you and probably death had looked at him, but his lynch was accepted hours before day end.

That in mind, what does that say about Hb?

I assume this is what you want my input on.

I don't think it says as much as you think it does but I'll go look at the end of the day.

ctesjbuvf posted...

It just requires Death to lie. I haven't against both being scum. What was the case they could not be again?

I simply don't think Death goes that hard in with Kirby. They are linked together HARD.

Death plays a conservative scum game. It would completely shock me if they were both scum

Death town, Kirby scum that didn't get targeted by Corrik is possible. As is Death town/scum, Kirby Roshan.

MZero posted...

This is 100% hinting at voting Kirby. You're so blinded by confirmation bias you're somehow interpreting this as hinting at Poppy (who he wasn't even voting yet)

Corrik targetting someone he has a scum read and wanted to lynch is infinitely less likely than the guy he literally said to look at IF HE DIES twice

No.

It's hinting to look at his role carefully if he dies, nothing more. The fact that he goes into where his vote is I believe is his other hint. But to me it has to be Kirby or Poppy.

If Death didn't have an observer ward, I would say go for Kirby today. Because he does and I don't believe scum death lies about it, we go with Poppy.

I am not 100% against lynching Kirby if we really want to go that way, because I think him being Roshan or Scum that Corrik didn't target isn't out of the question, but yeah.

I am 100% against

Chang
Red
Hb

As lynches

Objective in the sense that it's not tainted by any inherent bias on my part and looks wrong to an unbiased observer

These things don't mean that it is objectively correct to call you scum, just that town can take actions that look objectively scummy too.

Anyway you can paint the game as though-- I've had you on scum lists, towards the tail end usually. That's about the extent of my offensive on you this game.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

We're not considering lynching Poppy unless Lopen apologizes and admits he's been stuffing every single action I've done this game into a Scum lens because he's stubborn and too full of himself to admit that his ego is stronger than his analytical ability

I apologize and admit I've been stuffing some actions you've done into a Scum lens because I'm stubborn and too full of myself to admit my ego is stronger than my analytical ability

That's as close as you're going to get. I'm not going to say nothing I've pointed out about you is scummy on an objective level-- Lea voted you too pal.

I like how mzero is speculating the strangest setup here to explain away Corrik dying when the simpler answer by far is Corrik targeted scum

Sounds like a very scummy mindset to have towards Corrik

changmas posted...

probably expected scum to kill you tbh

I did too, and that's a big part of the reason I'm veering towards Han being town

If I'm alive, my read list was probably pretty bad outside of Sultan with respect to Lea. Meaning I had some as town that were scum, or some as scum that were town. Probably both. Han being town that just doesnt want to be cooperative with me because Im a big meanie would solve a lot of that.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Btw Lopen, you brought up the setup stuff and how we could lose n2 a few times. Do you believe Sultan's elusive ability is a pointless ability then?

I think town/Roshan probably have a conditional kill or a time delayed kill that can't fire night 1 that could potentially hit him.

An outright red herring passive wouldn't be out of the question either though, but proper balancing to me says a delayed ek makes the most sense by far

Hbthebattle posted...

alright, first of all, I literally had work during the deadline. Dont be a jackass about this. Second of all, there is no fucking way a me/Kirby scum team is in any way possible or logical and you know that.

Read page 5 of topic 4 (posts 201 through 250)

You start with this and it escalates

It feels like real frustration that people are just lazily going for him and giving him crap for explanation he gave that he couldn't be around.

It came off as genuine to me-- he also tries to solve Corrik's target because that's what people should do, but is silenced by people grilling him about questions he already answered.

changmas posted...

also it does actually make sense that if Roshan has a targetable kill he would use it on Corrik, the person who was obsessively talking about Roshan all day

I think I'm the more logical target by far as someone who was also talking about roshan a lot. Third party needs mislynch targets to win and corrik set himself up well for it.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Keep in mind, he also said I was his number 1 scum all game and never tried to lynch me.

Literally have never called you number 1 don't flatter yourself

MZero posted...

end of day yesterday

Yes I KNOW

Then I read today and reevaluated my read based on hb's early reactions.

Because in mafia, our day 1 reads aren't always correct

HanOfTheNekos posted...

When I came after Hb in "lopen gets fucked by Chang and sultan" Mafia, he was defensive. Very defensive.

He hasn't showed the same fire in this game

When he showed fire in this game people called it fake

He has shown frustration which I totally get

Roshan having a conditional kill that only works on his hunter is poor flavor and poor game design for Corrik's role imo

We can't deal in absolutes, I realize, but pursuing Corrik's likely target is a better case than anyone today. Hb did not claim scum. Hb defended himself fine earlier today.

What are the odds of yesterday's lynch being scum/scum? What agenda was scum pushing? Nothing? I mean lynching hb would give us some information possibly, but it's a cowardly lynch.

MZero posted...

I'm not jumping through hoops. I'm saying there are too many possibilities to be like "Corrik targeted Poppy and died, 100%

Corrik targeted Poppy and died, 99.7%

*claps come on boy, 0.3% you can jump through it!!

htaeD posted...

Lopen I do want to remind you that scum has that BP role for Sultan

I realize that

I think there is a conditional EK in the setup that could not fire night 1. Or there is something resembling a PGO in the setup or something, to justify Sultan being BP

But there is no chance there is just an extra kill that can toss the game into Lylo night 1

Obellisk posted...

Why is it not possible for scum to skate by idlly? I as scum do that practically all the time. lay low. mimic something someone else already said, idle out again.

I mean Poppy hasn't been what I'd call super active either

In his case he directly quotes what someone else said but it's basically the same.

MZero posted...

literally no one is lynching Hb for being idle Lopen. That has never been a thing

Yes, the crux of the argument against him was that he peaced out before end of day yesterday and general inactivity.

There are other wrinkles but it that really is the meat of it.

MZero posted...

again, you're ignoring several possible roles/items, like an EK scum can only use after they're down a member, that could be used to prevent that from happening. With only 3 flips there's no way to say an extra N1 kill can't exist. We've had similar roles before, like Scum Lawyer that could only lawyer onto scum, and everyone was so sure scum lawyer couldn't exist that town never lynched him and lost

Why the hell are you jumping through so many setup hoops to rationalize this though. You yourself pointed out that Corrik definitely was telling us to notice IF HE DIES and it's obvious that he hinted Poppy. (In addition to Kirby)

Why are you so sure Poppy is town that you are humoring scum lawyers or conditional EK (used on CORRIK???)

You should be the one groveling because if you're town this game from you is atrocious. Hb is just as bad as the other two

Drive any lynch that isn't idle centric I'm begging you.

Obellisk posted...

How do you mean

Ninja can't have THEIR night action tracked or watched.

What we are not seeing is Corrik's. Also I believe Death said Kirby moved so it's dead on two fronts

HanOfTheNekos posted...

What say you Lopen - you're willing to die if Poppy flips Town. Are you willing to die first for that postulate?

You may lynch me today if you wish

I think I'm close to solving this game. My town flip treating this as gospel is probably +ev

Also spoilers Han you're dangerously close to being off my scum list

Obellisk posted...

Or kirby is just scum ninja and can't be seen by a ward so death is being honest and d9esnt have to be linked to kirby?

By the way this line doesn't work-- Corrik would have to be the ninja here.

Suck it up and find scum if you're Town-- I'm not pushing for your head am I. These Chang and Red lynches you're suggesting are completely terrible at this juncture.

ctesjbuvf posted...

after the last two games especially, the shot makes sense

Lopen posted...

4/1/10

Town mislynch

4/1/9

Corrik guesses wrong

4/1/8

Roshan or Vig kills someone

4/1/7

Scum night kill

4/1/6

Town is at lylo. 0% there is another n1 kill possibility in this setup.

0% Corrik died by anything but his own hand. Disclaimer about balance this is the most basic mafia balancing you can achieve and I don't believe even an imbalanced mafia game signs off on it.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

It's a possibility.

Hey Lopenis, speaking of not paying attention to the game: why are you ignoring that I'm on your side about Poppy. More than almost anyone.

Non-committal being on my side is scummy that's why. It lets you bus if Poppy gets buried but also avoid committing in case one of your low hanging fruit lynches move.

You don't accept I'm making sense and humor any other lynch today. You use Corrik's scan. You resolve it.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Been a lot of posts and I'm doing a lot of other things. Also, since you're clearly inept at math, half of a day would be 24 hours. How many hours were used to process that the ward was used?

Because I'm good at math I count in posts not hours

Lopen posted...

Case building. Early today. In the first few posts after the flip (post 160-200 range of last topic)

PoppyTheNinja posted...
read the role PM, it's very likely corrik visited one of the mafia:

PoppyTheNinja posted...
well i went to look at corrik's posts in here and there was no hint about who he was targeting so that's pretty useless

I found not one but two possible targets from Corrik when I did the same. One happened to be you, but I find pretending not to find the insane Kirby as third party rant is suspicious. Why? Because if you pursue that very obvious hint line (which anyone should find, if they truly look at Corrik's posts, where he basically outright says "HEY GUYS I THINK KIRBY IS THE THIRD PARTY"), and we then determine it's not Kirby, you're the only other hint on the board in his strange vote for you. It's much better for you to push the narrative that he did not hint. This is what I mean by deflecting with respect to Corrik.

More to come.

Like this

THIS

You say confirmation bias all you want, but this stuck out as strange to me before I'd determined it was definitely Poppy. Even Kirby himself thought Corrik hinted Kirby. To find nothing after you claimed you looked? Very odd. Reeks of sweeping under the rug.

Like fuck. Is Han paying any attention? My whole first half of the day was untangling Death/Kirby no wonder he thinks I've been tunneling Poppy all day.

Listen if Poppy flips town I will leave my list of reads and continue to play but if people want to kill me to verify my townness that's fine.

So listen it's one of the following targets for Corrik

1. Poppy - Corrik talked about a need to verify Poppy's townness as a high priority and needing to. Further he idled his vote on him and talked about voting him in a non-sequitir in the post where he said IF I DIE.
2. Kirby - insane rant about cult leader, sticks out to anyone as an obvious hint as to his target

However, Kirby is verified as not visited per Death's ward. Therefore if Kirby was scum visited by Corrik, Death would have to be scum as well.

Now ctes can talk confirmation bias all he wants, and for day 1, yeah maybe, but Poppy claimed to have looked into Corrik's posts and found nothing. I refuse to believe if you looked you wouldn't at least find Kirby as a possible target. This is Poppy trying to sweep it under the rug. Why? Because either he and Kirby are both scum and both leads lead to scum, or pursuing that thread would lead to him at some point.

Obellisk posted...

IF poppy is lynched and is Town then ...[fill in blank please]

I'll sign off on lynching me tomorrow

HanOfTheNekos posted...

The issue with that is that I'm pretty positive Sultan's lynch was accepted ahead of time. And Lea was a primary Hb pusher so

##Unvote: Red
##Vote: Chang

Red, I'd still like if you had a list of people you thought were Town/Scum

Changmas isn't even lurking really. Read the early part of the day. He was instrumental in helping us find how the shop worked and he helped guide me to untangling the Kirby/Death thing.

You want a reason why you're still scum? This. You're not trying to drive anything you're just dangling lynches and hoping town bites on one.

MZero posted...

Corrik7 posted...
I haven't argued to lynch Kirby. I am doing exactly what I did last game with Ben's doctor claim. HEY IF I DIE LOOK AT THESE THINGS LATER ON BECAUSE SOMETHING SMELLS HERE. IT COULD BE NOTHING OR EVERYTHING. Basically.

My vote is where it is simply due to not deciding what avenue is best today, not because of what I am pushing. It's important to get everything on the board with Kirby though, because if he isn't town. It could be eventually catastrophic. I am operating Kirby as town due to how many people likely can't be paired with him as scum, though ironically this all kinda falls apart if he is 3rd party I suppose. But, for all intents scum would view the 3rd party as town as well right now. And because he tried some bs host read tags argument to confirm as town slyly. But, it's something town absolutely has to be aware of a a possibility going forward.

I mean... this makes it look like he targeted Kirby. HEY IF I DIE in all caps is pretty damning. Only problem is death's ward claim

Like this is a neon sign for players like you.

I know how Corrik would play his role and he literally left "if I die" in caps

ctesjbuvf posted...

So the idea is that Corrik should have went for someone he thought was a good lynch? That's ridiculous regardless of Poppy's alignment.

Corrik wanted to townclear people with his ability. He was using his ability as an investigative role.

The important thing is he would leave a clear hint as to who he targeted, and he would target people who would be tough to determine alignment otherwise, hence his discussion on Poppy being a player we haven't seen. It's not what he thought Poppy was as much as it being clear he targeted Poppy.

Although looking at that post Corrik non-sequitirs into where his vote is just after the IF I DIE comment which may have been his way of telling us the vote is relevant as it relates to his target, if that wasn't already obvious.

I was leaning Kirby too which is why to me it was vitally important to discern Death's truthiness

MZero posted...

also claiming there was pointless, and Han has been not killed N1 as town plenty of times

More evidence Ulti is playing this game to clear himself over all else

UltimaterializerX posted...

He is giving of heavy eaedwards FF7 vibes when he rolled Sephiroth and kept blatantly accusing everyone else of being third party

Didn't happen. I won that game by scumhunting successfully and hiding my extra kills in Red's bulletproof body. Doubt I mentioned third party much. You did a lot, because you were Cloud.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Red, Chang, and Death have ranged from absent to boring to totally useless. Only Death has even bothered playing.

2 out of 3 of those players have more content than you. Glass houses

Obellisk posted...

And it was poppy because corrik was voting him right?

A combination of that and Poppy trying to sweep the Corrik thread under the rug saying he had found no hints as to the possible target (and claimed to have looked) which I found insincere.

THEN I dug into day 1 and found "hey this guy had weird Sultan interactions"

And no I didn't drive this day exclusively into Poppy

I drove this day into figuring out who Corrik targeted, then determined it was Poppy after determining it could only be him or Kirby and that Death + Kirby scumteam didn't make sense and telling the truth made more, THEN drove it into Poppy.