Board 8 > Xenoblade Chronicles 3 Mafia: 1-2 Something A Bit Meatier

(+) Yeah! (+)

Peace___Frog posted...

Anyway, we know that igcd is overseas so i don't really fault him for his disappearance. He also said he'd be busy and was looking for summary posts!

Jc, on the other hand, i am frustrated with.

No I'm pacific time I just work nights

Here's why Ultis attack on Sultan didn't make sense

He himself put out the perspective slip argument
He let it be defeated immediately based on little

To me it felt more like he was trying to make a justification to place a vote on the guy who was getting some heat.

Kinda like what he did with me, except replace "vote guy who is getting heat" with "vote guy who is expecting me"

All of Ulti's votes have been cart before the horse followed by immediately abandoning the cart

Expecting me = suspecting me

Ulti also immediately says blah blah pennance vote lynch of me

It's fake. I don't think as town he just accepts that after a long hiatus

IfGodCouldDie posted...

If you read the sign up topic I explain that I work nights in a remote part of the country service is extremely spotty. Right now we are staged waiting to go up a mountain and haul rocks down.

Just to be clear, I was saying that I WASN'T being hard on you, because I understand people need time to do real life things. I was responding to Lopen chastising me for taking more than 8 minutes to respond to a post.

I would still like if you went back and responded to our last exchange though!

EDumey posted...

Just to be clear, I was saying that I WASN'T being hard on you, because I understand people need time to do real life things. I was responding to Lopen chastising me for taking more than 8 minutes to respond to a post.

I would still like if you went back and responded to our last exchange though!

Can you please quote it here, we are very close to getting started so im likely not going to come back to the topic until I'm done work just so I don't get lost in topic.

Ultimaterializer posted...

I dont mind if I end up as a penance lynch so people get it out of their system, but please make sure it leads to killing that dude once I flip. Or we could just kill him today, whatever.

This is never something Ulti says as town after a several month break.

Note he also said we could also kill me after saying he wasnt sure I was scum, then said I was town. Guy has flipped on me like 90 times.

Peace___Frog posted...

As far as not-posters go, hb has had a similar presence to red, star has made one post that i can recall, and all chang did was piece together jc's claim.

Which he would have been doing as scum anyway, assuming jc is town (which I'm leaning towards as of recently).

Still think plum is possibly scum but that push has come and gone, and I'm doubtful that i can get anything going there.

##unvote
##vote: chang

excuse me i also defended sultan against ulti's misunderstanding and called lopen town!

but if you want some general thoughts here are some in no particular order

i am feeling good about the following:

lopen - he's acting completely certain that his pet theories are 100% true, an absolute lopen special. slight chance he's emulating his town play although if he's already softening the stance on JC / not totally confirmation biasing his way through everything. but maybe just natural improvement!

red - red doesn't say a lot on day 1 but imo posts like 1.368 just sound like town red to me. he's acting as a steering force and that's a good thing for him

chaeix/jc - honestly i just believe the claim plain and simple. if he's alive on day 4 we kill him.

sultan - we've seen in the past what it looks when scum sultan tries to feign a little cluelessness to match his town self and it hasn't been effective. either there's been marked improvement there or we are simply seeing town sultan here - a little gullible / quick to believe joke posts, sometimes hard to parse through

plum - not sure i believe that outright claiming a non-xenoblade character and feigning confusion over whether or not he's even a miller is within a scum plum range. feels fairly compelling to me to be town, but I would re-evaluate this if someone had evidence to the contrary

then some people i'm iffy on for now:

sbell - he's been doing like a full readthrough with his thoughts kind of thing but I haven't been particularly impressed with the thoughts up through now. he's been mostly stuck on sultan and plum this whole time who are pretty solid in my book. idk maybe he hasn't gotten to anything juicier yet and i can re-evaluate when he does!

Death - 1.103, 1.107, and 1.108 are so weird to me. it kind of feels like a genuine moment of panic like "oh shit maybe i really DID just get shot". and props to sultan for calling this out in the moment. more down to let the IGCD claimed shot play itself out and not lynch death d1 though imo. i always feel weird about death though

IGCD - I kinda believe he has a gun and shot death but I also kinda feel like he's more likely to be scum if that's true. way easier to feel empowered enough to take that shot with a team backing you up. like a "just have a little dustup with somebody and then shoot them" is totally a possible 'set play' for scum

everyone else i either haven't seen enough from to get anything or need more time to evaluate - a couple to note - Han (once he posts his big list of reads at the end of day 1 I can better evaluate my feelings on him) and Edumey (my gut is feeling good but it's my first game with them so treading a bit more carefully)

oh yeah also EDumey and 5tarscream what pronouns do each of you use? Don't believe I've played with either of you before

Analysis of reactions to JC claim. It is an interesting claim because if true scum don't particularly want him lynched either.

Hbthebattle posted...

It fits with the game. And if it fits with the game JC claiming early might be able to be the way he can survive.

Seems like honest attempt to digest

Hbthebattle posted...

Are we actually sure about that? Is not trading deathplaces the whole mechanic of Bodyguard, a super common role?

At this point he is stretching hard in a way that feels like he is flexing that he solved the role-- no this doesnt make sense but the proudness in something that doesn't really make sense seems genuine. I don't think he does this as scum regardless of JC's alignment. Hb probably town.

(Sorry posted in wrong topic)

IfGodCouldDie posted...

Can you please quote it here, we are very close to getting started so im likely not going to come back to the topic until I'm done work just so I don't get lost in topic.

You said
IfGodCouldDie posted...

My reasoning is that you seem to be very willing to throw out suspicion on people despite the fact that you clearly aren't really reading the game. It comes across more as you're getting your information second hand from somewhere else instead of here.

I responded
EDumey posted...

I don't think I've thrown out much suspicion at all actually. Just JC, and a comment about your interaction with Plum. It seems odd to say I'm not reading the game, then try to attribute something to me that I haven't done.

To be a little less adversarial, I'll just say I didn't think the reason you came up with for not liking me made much sense, so I'm wondering if you just are making a gut call or if there's something specific you didn't like.

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

If that is true it can't be stopped that sucks if true

Sultan basically said this role is stupid repeatedly and doubted claim. Scum Sultan I believe doesn't bus JC here or he believes JC is telling the truth.

Sultan probably town.

masterplum posted...

Oh shoot

I think JC is town

Plum doubts, then turns hard based on hb's theory which isn't really as amazing as hb thinks it is.

If JC scum, plum scum.

htaeD posted...

I suppose that could work actually

Death convinced by hb logic of Bodyguard being a good analog (it's not)

If JC scum, Death scum.

changmas posted...

oh yeah also EDumey and 5tarscream what pronouns do each of you use? Don't believe I've played with either of you before

he/him is fine for me.

Death and Plum look bad if JC is town too actually. Jumping back off on hb's argument feels faked

I'd be up for lynching them

HanOfTheNekos posted...

I mean, honest, if you're Town and have this role, you're playing it almost in the way you should. I'd imagine however that you'd prefer Scum to shoot you, if you're doomed to die anyway (unless you really believe someone will save you)

As said before to me this play makes no sense for Han to defend to me. Don't think Han defends in this way if JC is his mate. I think Han looks bad if JC is town

Chang posts a hint dump on JC and then believes JC on not much

I think if JC town, Chang scum. But they aren't both scum

Edumey believes the claim on not much apparent thought either

If JC town, Edumey scum.

Ulti's analysis of the claim actually is one of the best and I am doubting my read of him (and JC) as scum as a result.

Based on JC reactions

1. Sultan - town
4. Edumey - scum
6. Death - scum
7. Ulti - town
10. Hb - town
15. Plum - scum
16. Chang - scum

These are my reads in a vacuum of the reactions. Unlisted had insufficient data or some good and bad.

Ultimaterializer posted...

I think Justin is town. His claim makes no sense as scum. If he had a scum power role, he wouldn't claim "I die on day four". He'd just claim something busted to get some shot off tonight before dying tomorrow

Aforementioned Ulti logic
Very sound, shows attempt to digest game
Ulti probably town
Apologies in order

Death overall best lynch taking all data in

##Unvote:
##Vote: Death

changmas posted...

red - red doesn't say a lot on day 1 but imo posts like 1.368 just sound like town red to me. he's acting as a steering force and that's a good thing for him

I'm not going to say I'm not town because that'd be dumb and a lie but I definitely haven't had the will to keep up anything that I'd call a steering force.

Did lopen say he doesn't feel as strong that someone is scum anymore because not enough scum voted for the person he felt was scum?

Lopen posted...

At this point he is stretching hard in a way that feels like he is flexing that he solved the role-- no this doesnt make sense but the proudness in something that doesn't really make sense seems genuine. I don't think he does this as scum regardless of JC's alignment. Hb probably town.

it absolutely makes sense if you've played the game! sacrificial roles are not forbidden >_>

Lopen posted...

As said before to me this play makes no sense for Han to defend to me. Don't think Han defends in this way if JC is his mate. I think Han looks bad if JC is town

What's the benefit for a scum!Han to defend the play if he thinks it's bad? Couldn't he easily get town points by acting as a "town leader" while coaching less experienced players?

Catching up on 1-2 now.

I feel Lopen is very town, SBell and plum too.

Not feeling Peaf, Sultan or JC.

Peaf pushing Dumey on his statement about if one is scum we kill the other seemed a little fishy. Like PEaf was trying to get Dumey to vote one and even if they flipped town go after the other. MAkes me feel like maybe he knew they are both town and was looking for an easy buddy up then turning on Dumey with a you killed them and you must have known.

Dumey's explanations and thought process felt good to me. Made sense and was clear in his thinking.

My first thought on JC's claim was that he was either fishing or he was desperate to buy time to get a power off. That could be a town power but it could just as easily be a scum power and like others have said I'm not sure of the benefit of claiming it D1 as town. Like if you thought you'd be a major N1 target for scum then yeah you'd maybe claim and look for protection but you said yourself you wouldn't be. There's little reason to think you'd need to claimas town 1st post.

I feel like most of Sultan's defence has come from other people basically saying Sultan didn't mean that, Sultan doesn't read, Sultan is wishy washy at the best of times. HE hasn't really given me anything himself.

IfGodCouldDie posted...

Fuck it, im just going to claim my flavour to completely remove the misconceptions people are having about what I have said about my flavour I am "that BANGer of a soundtrack"

I suppose there are worse ways to die.

Thoughts on Ulti. I feel like his throw a vote on everyone with only a tiny sample is more town Ulti. He's supremely confident in his mafia ability and if he thinks for a second something is even a little off he'll dive on it and start voting without trying to get more information. He's just that confident in his own reads. What looks like a lazy vote to most people is just Ulti's over-confidence.
Can someone explain to me why nobody other than Lopen and I have suspicions of JC trying to buy time as scum? Like I just don't see why everyone is suddenly like oh yeah that makes sense. Like I get he's hinting town power but that to me just looks like he's going further down the buy myself time rabbit hole. He's either dropped the ball horribly as town with his weird decision making, or he's scrambling as scum.
I also don't like Chang just saying oh that seems legit with no knowledge of the flavour or the character. I read the wiki too and it doesn't seem to make sense to me to have Mio as doomed. Death knows the flavour best it seems. Can you give me an idea of if Mio as doomed town makes any sense flavour wise.

It does, but it also makes sense as a fakeclaim to make as scum. So its a nultell overall. Though I also dont think we should lynch Changmas today.

Also really Lopen?
Your last straw for voting me is that?
I didnt mean I believed a literal BG could stop Changsmas' supposed death.
I just meant that a BG was equivalent to the role I theorized existing before HB's post.
Conveniently you leave that out.

htaeD posted...

I suppose there are worse ways to die.

There are worse ways to die than being shot D1 because Corrik said so? I'm not sure I agree.

htaeD posted...

It does, but it also makes sense as a fakeclaim to make as scum. So its a nultell overall. Though I also dont think we should lynch Changmas today.

Also really Lopen?
Your last straw for voting me is that?
I didnt mean I believed a literal BG could stop Changsmas' supposed death.
I just meant that a BG was equivalent to the role I theorized existing before HB's post.
Conveniently you leave that out.

Do you mean Chang or JC?

5tarscream posted...

There are worse ways to die than being shot D1 because Corrik said so? I'm not sure I agree.

It was more a joke about how much the soundtrack slaps
I would still be mad if I died of course.

Oh and yeah Chaeix/JC I meant
Changmas I was okay with since he was the first to point out how Ulti read Sultan wrong.

What do you make of the two miller claims?

I believe Plum, but I dont see that as a miller claim
I also believed Lopen, but I find myself disagreeing with him more than not. So I am less sure about him.
Would be an easy thing to counterclaim if you were scum after all.

Still thats just a slight suspicion.

So what do you see plum's claim as if it's not a miller? I agree that it doesn't exactly fit the usual explanation of scanning as scum but being town given the supposed alignments. I'm not really sure wtf to make of it.
That being said, if we're to believe plum and IGCD's claims then we can all but disregard Ben's opening post on alignments. Neither of them falls into any of the 3 factions.

Just a nilla is what I will guess out loud.

And like I already said, we can ignore the part about the 2 good factions. The story is more about everyone VS Moebius.

That said Moebius does have the best bossbattle music, so IGCD could be scum or indy!
(This is a joke. I dont think IGCD claims his flavor if he actually is Indy)
But you are right in that it might disprove my safelist assumption.
Not sure it does, but I also dont know if it matters.

Lopen posted...

This is never something Ulti says as town after a several month break.

Note he also said we could also kill me after saying he wasnt sure I was scum, then said I was town. Guy has flipped on me like 90 times.

I'm also kind of inclined to believe that Ulti is laying the nonchalance on too thick.

changmas posted...

IGCD - I kinda believe he has a gun and shot death but I also kinda feel like he's more likely to be scum if that's true. way easier to feel empowered enough to take that shot with a team backing you up. like a "just have a little dustup with somebody and then shoot them" is totally a possible 'set play' for scum

Problem with this is me and death had no dust up prior to that, Corrik just wanted someone shot and I obliged.

EDumey posted...

To be a little less adversarial, I'll just say I didn't think the reason you came up with for not liking me made much sense, so I'm wondering if you just are making a gut call or if there's something specific you didn't like.

I'll be very honest with you. Everything I do is based on gut. I'm constantly asked to explain and everytime i do, it moves people away from my correct feeling and towards my incorrect feelings. Me explaining my instincts never goes well in convincing anyone of anything.

IfGodCouldDie posted...

Problem with this is me and death had no dust up prior to that, Corrik just wanted someone shot and I obliged.

I cant decide what to do with this.

If you are town you should be banned from mafia for not trying to win.

So do I take this seriously? Do I just policy vote you? Do I wait to see if death actually dies?

I think Lopen is town. He is flailing hard compared to last game with arguments I dont agree with at all. That makes me think he isnt regulating his posts as much.

Red needs to show up and do something. He is a good enough player that letting him not post all day shouldnt be the expected norm

masterplum posted...

I cant decide what to do with this.

If you are town you should be banned from mafia for not trying to win.

So do I take this seriously? Do I just policy vote you? Do I wait to see if death actually dies?

I think Lopen is town. He is flailing hard compared to last game with arguments I dont agree with at all. That makes me think he isnt regulating his posts as much.

Red needs to show up and do something. He is a good enough player that letting him not post all day shouldnt be the expected norm

Someone didn't learn about "its not whether you win or lose, its how much fun you have."

Lopen posted...

Aforementioned Ulti logic
Very sound, shows attempt to digest game
Ulti probably town
Apologies in order

His logic came to the exact opposite conclusion that you did (and you got very worked up over). But you think it's sound now?

IfGodCouldDie posted...

Someone didn't learn about "its not whether you win or lose, its how much fun you have."

Someone didnt learn about "fun at the expense of someone else is not really funny"

htaeD posted...

Someone didnt learn about "fun at the expense of someone else is not really funny"

With this logic no day vig or town killing role should ever shoot their shot because they might kill someone and that person would no longer have fun.

changmas posted...

excuse me i also defended sultan against ulti's misunderstanding and called lopen town!

You're right, i forgot about those.

I'm leaving my vote on you though because that's a nice catch up post and all... but I don't get any sense that you're doing much with the information that you provided. You gave town reads, "iffy" reads, and then named han and dumey as people you want to see more from? Where's a single scum read? Are you scared to list a teammate and bring attention to them, or are you scared to start a train on someone that you know is town? There's people with multiple votes on them, such as myself. You think the two people on me are town! But you don't want to call me anything?

I feel like dumey has given a lot to work off of. You say you feel good about him but are treading carefully because it's your first game with him...? I was honestly feeling that he was town after the lopen exchange, but this feels like a bad attempt at giving a non-read on your partner.

Chang is my top priority now.

IfGodCouldDie posted...

With this logic no day vig or town killing role should ever shoot their shot because they might kill someone and that person would no longer have fun.

I mean day1 they shouldnt unless they are damn sure

IfGodCouldDie posted...

I'm also kind of inclined to believe that Ulti is laying the nonchalance on too thick.

He's so braggadocious so the time to the point where he's a parody of himself, his nonchalance is always thick.

htaeD posted...

I mean day1 they shouldnt unless they are damn sure

In my defense making the correct shot day one or day 5 is going to be a crap shoot regardless.

IfGodCouldDie posted...

With this logic no day vig or town killing role should ever shoot their shot because they might kill someone and that person would no longer have fun.

I'm going to post my role pm and get modkilled because it will be fun

masterplum posted...

I'm going to post my role pm and get modkilled because it will be fun

Ok? The only person's fun you ruin in that scenario is your own.

Yeah, I'm just out on playing with IGCD ever again (assuming this isn't an elaborate ruse)