Board 8 > Stock Topic 31

(+) Yeah! (+)

So I haven't sold any SPCE today. Normally I would, but I thought about it, and this FAA news is genuinely really good news. With this plus the successful test flight I feel like the stock deserves to be above its February peak, and it's still got another 10% or so to go to breach that.

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You long on it yet, red sox?

I convinced one of my friends not to sell after February's crash because he only had the stock for 10 months. He is very thankful today.

I sold about half my shares in January-February, at around $57 average IIRC, because I was worried about the risk from the test flight. Turns out that was the right call! I bought back some of the stock in the 20s in March and April.

None of my shares are going to be long term until early August though, and there's a bigger batch from December. I am probably going to sell a significant amount before the next test flight to reduce risk even if that realizes short term gains.

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Updated (useless) stats on distribution of gains and losses, since I love stats:

Since March 2020, I've bought a total of 58 stocks or crypto at various times. Of these, I have a gain on 23 of them, representing 173% of total net gain, and a loss on 35, representing -73% of total net gain.

• My #1 stock accounts for 63% of total net gain.
• My top 2 stocks account for 98% of net gain.
• Top 3 stocks account for 117% of net gain.
• Top 20% of picks account for 164% of net gain.
• Top 50% account for 172% of net gain.
• Bottom 50% accounts for -72% of net gain.
• Bottom 20% accounts for -54% of net gain.
• Bottom 3 stocks account for -27% of net gain.
• Bottom 2 stocks account for -22% of net gain.
• Worst stock accounts for -16% of net gain.

I am quite happy with this distribution. Accepting losses has historically been difficult for me, so I'm happy that I've been very able to realize small losses when I feel more confident in other stocks. Some earlier version of me would care too much about "breaking even."

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Alright, I'll bite on SOFI assuming it isn't up a bunch on Monday.

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I have it on mediocre authority that COIN is going to rise this week.

Off to a good start.

What was the authority?

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A friend of mine who obsessively tracks Wyckoff charts.

WYNN has been down lately, I put in $108k. No call on this one, terrible premium prices.

Such a mixed day. Between my 3 main brokerage accounts, my largest is up and my smaller ones are down.

Also, go SOFI. Wish I bought the dip this morning though, but I still made money since Friday.

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I believe that crypto is set to take off again. I put $108k into BTC, though I am disappointed that I didnt just keep it in from the get go.

I have $200k in Vanguard for stocks but nothing is calling my name at the moment. Recommendations?

Crypto has been nice today, but I'd like it to jump juuuust a bit more.

I was able to close a couple of my positions that I had doubled and quadrupled down on as the prices fell for small gains and then reopen those positions at my standard volume, but I still have a few others where the price is still just a hair beneath where I need it to be so I can close those as well. ADA to 1.43, DOGE to 0.326 and VTHO to 0.0074 will make me very happy.

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Tech probably rallying on Delta variant concerns?

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SPCE getting crushed today with a 15% drop. There doesn't seem to be any news that would justify this, so I added a bit. Will probably be relatively quick to sell today's new shares if it goes back up.

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I was looking at futures this morning and they were all down. The Dow and S&P 500 are up, though NASDAQ is down. With earnings season coming up, I'm getting the feeling that futures traders don't feel confident about the market.

I'm considering reducing my positions and holding cash. Or just using a lot of cash I haven't touched yet for investing to buy the dip when it happens. I just feel like we're approaching another market peak.

Now futures are looking pretty good. haha

I still feel like going in on ETFs to do something more passive, but I also feel like waiting and striking for stocks that might dip after earnings.

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Great day for LK holders! +27% on news that the company finally issued its corrected financials for Q3 and Q4 2019.

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Put half in etfs and keep half to play with?

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That's what I'm thinking about doing. I have another brokerage account set up for ETFs. So that way I have a fun account and a serious account, in addition to serious retirement accounts.

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It's rarely a good idea to put too much in cash. Hard to time market crashes.

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memes getting destroyed today

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My friend said that Bitcoin is going to go up to $37k this weekend, based on the Wyckoff chart. Lets see if he is accurate once again.

Richard Branson's test flight announced for July 11. Should be lots of green for SPCE tomorrow.

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Its up 26% AH!

Even with the big AH surge, it's actually still just below where it peaked on Monday. The huge drop this week didn't make sense to me. I think we deserve to be above the February peak on this news plus the successful test flight in May plus the FAA approval - let's see $63 tomorrow hopefully!

Also, congrats to everyone who held Hertz. My rough calculations are that based on the combined value of the cash paid out, the shares in HTZZ, and the warrants (HTZZW), HTZGQ shareholders as of close yesterday are seeing about a 30% gain today from the exit from bankruptcy and the ticker change. I'm seeing a total value of approximately $11.6 for each share of HTZGQ.

Which means that last Summer, when HTZ surged from under $1 to the $5-$6 range....it was still undervalued.

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Alright guys. One of my cases is hitting ultra speed again and has taken me out of commission the past week. This will continue for another week, at least. Im going to be MIA for a bit. As such, I put $130k into BTC before it hits $37k by Monday, hopefully.

rgbp and eeenf starting to take off again. Lookin good from here

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https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-cyberspace-agency-says-didi-illegally-collects-user-data-2021-07-04/?utm_source=reddit.com

Amazing

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rgbp doin work today so far

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ow my portfolio

Been holding onto cash for a little while, might do some shopping today. What's good? Might grab some more SOFI or ACI, maybe some SCHD though I'm not sure if I should be so focused on dividend stocks/ETFs like ACI and SCHD.

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Zachnorn posted...

ow my portfolio

Been holding onto cash for a little while, might do some shopping today. What's good? Might grab some more SOFI or ACI, maybe some SCHD though I'm not sure if I should be so focused on dividend stocks/ETFs like ACI and SCHD.

nvda

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Why has NVDA been on such a tear lately?

Looks like its doing a split price 7/20. That scares me to get in now.

Sunroof posted...

Looks like its doing a split price 7/20. That scares me to get in now.

Splits are good right?

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Yeah but Im saying its price has been running up
based on the news, and will soon plummet.

WYNN is cratering. Yummy entry price.

I feel like the market is now getting concerned about the Delta variant.

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Wynn is cratering for good reason and should probably be lower due to the Corona problem in Vegas. I'm not considering it till $80

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red sox 777 posted...

I feel like the market is now getting concerned about the Delta variant.

Knew I should have sold on Friday.

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I havent been paying attention. Theres a variant of covid that is affecting vaccinated people?

Sunroof posted...

I havent been paying attention. Theres a variant of covid that is affecting vaccinated people?

The vaccines seem to still help but they aren't as effective as against previous variants. Also keep in mind that most of Wynn's pre-pandemic business was in Macau, which is still more or less shut down.

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Wynn will flourish when/if China ever returns to somewhat normalcy.

Its one of the few stocks that hasnt surpassed its pre-covid prices. Airlines and cruise lines are the only other fields I can think of that fit that criterion.

Vaccine is only 50% effective against delta variant is what I've been hearing

Which long term we'll be fine but Wynn kinda needed the money to start coming in asap. Don't like gambling or cruise stocks right now.

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Like keep in mind all of these businesses are hemorrhaging money. They're taking loans and stuff but they're going to need to start selling assets and such to keep afloat eventually, which is gonna hurt their revenue line, on top of the debt they're taking on.

I think airlines are good buys off this panic dip because I think they've got a shorter road to recovery overall (and will receive more backing from governments and whatnot to keep afloat-- air travel on the whole is more important than pure leisure) so their current position looks more realistic.

But I really don't want anything with Wynn yet. To me that's a scary one.

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Makes sense. Someday, though, itll return to glory.

I bought an Aug 06 $105 put on Wynn . Looks like a good target to crater on lowered earnings guidance on the Aug 03 earnings call and if we get some hysteria in the next month it could get there before earnings.

We'll see these PUT plays haven't been working out lately but I'm going with it. Feels like a weird hedge on my BP Aug 20 calls.

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I will say if the Wynn put prints I'll immediately turn around and put the proceeds into long calls on Wynn. The 2023 calls will look tempting if it falls that far.

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Thats quite the decline, but it could happen.

I havent had any money in the stock market for a few weeks now. Its mostly in BTC which Im down in. I have around $150k in Vanguard waiting to be invested.