Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 354: Josh and Ted's Seditious Adventure

(+) Yeah! (+)

Manchin said pre-election that he would not kill the filibuster but I think he might be amenable to reforming it so it actually has to be a talking filibuster and not a "kill all action forever with no effort" button. We'll see though.

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I think Johnson could flip if we had a good canidate to go against him but Wisconsin Democrats kind of suck so I'm not expecting a good one.

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If we entertain dreamworld scenarios for a bit, I also assume Manchin would favor an incremental increase toward a $15 minimum wage. Perhaps an expansion of Social Security and Medicare as well - his state is quite poor and old.

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Oh well obviously Manchin as swing is 10000% preferable than McConnell blocking literally everything. But Manchin as swing is far less preferable than either Sinema or Tester, which is what we might've had if the NC nominee could've kept his stupid tiny penis in his pants and out of his texts.

I'm just being greedy now considering how things looked a week ago, but it would be nice if we weren't at the whims of Manchin until 2022 at the very least.

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Given how the party in power traditionally fares in midterms I would operate as if I expected to lose control in 2022 regardless of the map.

gotta go fast

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Suprak the Stud posted...

Oh well obviously Manchin as swing is 10000% preferable than McConnell blocking literally everything. But Manchin as swing is far less preferable than either Sinema or Tester, which is what we might've had if the NC nominee could've kept his stupid tiny penis in his pants and out of his texts.

I'm just being greedy now considering how things looked a week ago, but it would be nice if we weren't at the whims of Manchin until 2022 at the very least.

Cunningham would have probably lost anyways because Trump carried the states IMHO. These races generally go as how the presidency goes in toss up elections.

We know there was a polling error in NC.

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TotallyNotMI posted...

I think Johnson could flip if we had a good canidate to go against him but Wisconsin Democrats kind of suck so I'm not expecting a good one.

Yeah, Johnson is an incumbent, 2022 is not a favorable year for dems considering we now have both houses and the presidency, Wisconsin has been trending red, and Wisconsin democrats kinda suck as you pointed out.

I just don't think that's a very likely target at this point. Pennsylvania seems most likely out of all of them.

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xp1337 posted...

Manchin said pre-election that he would not kill the filibuster but I think he might be amenable to reforming it so it actually has to be a talking filibuster and not a "kill all action forever with no effort" button. We'll see though.

More Ted Cruz reading Dr Seuss on the senate floor pls

The only thing that makes me feel mildly better is both Warnock and Kelly are actually good candidates and not just nothing empty suits keeping the seats warm. Under normal circumstances I'd view them as pretty big underdogs in 2022 without knowing their opposition, but I think they both at least have somewhat of a chance.

Don't know much about NV.

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xp1337 posted...

Given how the party in power traditionally fares in midterms I would operate as if I expected to lose control in 2022 regardless of the map.

gotta go fast

I've got a better idea. The Democrats should spend the first year of Biden's term trying to negotiate with Republicans. When this leads to nothing getting done, change the rules to make it easier to do stuff without them. Finally, spend the second year of Biden's term doing nothing because election year, then be shocked when the GOP takes both houses of Congress.

Wait, did I say "better"? I meant "more realistic".
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Corrik7 posted...

Cunningham would have probably lost anyways because Trump carried the states IMHO. These races generally go as how the presidency goes in toss up elections.

We know there was a polling error in NC.

Georgia polls were crazy accurate again, so I guess there absolutely has to be truth to the idea that Trump on the ballot messes with polling somehow. The trend at least has held true for 2016, 2018, 2020, and now the Georgia elections.

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While there's no doubt Manchin will have a lot of pull, I feel there will be more instances of Republicans who "can't afford to vote no on certain things" voting with the Democrats.

McConnell not bringing those up for a vote protected them, but now they don't have that protection.

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NV has been trending blue. Trump did well here because this was one of the few states where his financially exhausted campaign actually spent a lot of money. I'd say Cortez-Masto is the favorite in two years.

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Corrik7 posted...

I think that people here and on twitter tend to idolize people a lot. Comey for a bit. Avernatti or whatever. Fauci. Abrams. There is probably a ton of different examples. Mueller. Etc.

I think they are always looking for a hero. A president who was running it up in the primaries everywhere with African American vote wins with increased African American turnout in states, despite winning less of a share of African American votes than predecessors. Did Abrams probably help? Probably. Is she the reason why he won and the senators won? Probably not.

https://twitter.com/mrrager1987/status/1346691584230879233?s=21

This last tweet said it best. Like Im very glad she helped turn Georgia blue, but some of these people are absolutely nuts, especially when you consider the odds of Dems losing the Senate in 2 years and the Presidency in 4.

Like...chill out lol, youre being creepy as hell, and Id say this if it was about anyone, including Bernie, before anyone gets silly

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Oh god Tony you missed the best one

https://twitter.com/gretchenwhitmer/status/1346819096160186370?s=21
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Losing the senate in 2 years? Am I remembering wrong I thought the senate map in 2022 was crushing for republicans

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lmao

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I mean those are clearly...

Hold on let me check my notes here.

Uh. I think they're called "jokes".

And that dude has spent most of the past couple days rage tweeting about the #fraudsquad so he can go kick rocks, tbqh. What a weird time to be like "ackshully Abrams is only pretty ok and people who think she did a great job are simps".

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

Losing the senate in 2 years? Am I remembering wrong I thought the senate map in 2022 was crushing for republicans

I mean I checked the map and with democrats in control of WH, House, and Senate, I think it is harder for them than republicans. You can double check my work if you want but I don't see that as a great map for democrats.

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Yeah Abrams can take a bow on this one and those are super clearly all fun and games.

Awesome, great work.

Now time for progressives to fucking hammer the democrats. This is a lot different world than 12 years ago with Obama. I don't expect everything, but they are going to give something.


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What?

Like, the dude saying my wife said I could leave her for Stacey Abrams was obviously joking, but theyre all based on a very real hero worship thats going on.

Im not um actually ing anything, and Id appreciate you of all people not pulling this shit.

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https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1346845109736845318?s=21

Fucking died @ scoundrels
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Suprak the Stud posted...

I mean I checked the map and with democrats in control of WH, House, and Senate, I think it is harder for them than republicans. You can double check my work if you want but I don't see that as a great map for democrats.

I don't see a single seat aside from GA that I'd even blink about them losing whereas that vacant senate seat in PA seems like a good pickup opportunity.

I just don't see the democrats really in many losable races.


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CaptainOfCrush posted...

NV has been trending blue.

Really? That's not what it looks like based on the last few presidential elections there.

2008: Democrats by 12.50% (5.22% above national margin)
2012: Democrats by 6.68% (2.82% above national margin)
2016: Democrats by 3.42% (1.33% above national margin)
2020: Democrats by 2.39% (2.06 below national margin)

Personally I don't know that much about NV (and they have the incumbency advantage in the 2022 Senate race), but this definitely doesn't look like a state trending towards the Democrats.
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Yeah, there's some idolization going on with her that doesn't match up. It's a change in voter law that contributed the most by far: the default in the 2016 aftermath was to opt in voter registration when getting a drivers license. Net result, their registrations almost doubled. On top of that the breakdown compared to 2020 showed it wasn't the black vote that flipped the state either: high income went +7, college grads +6, suburban +6, those 65+ +5, areas that went for Obama previously +5. Black voters just were +1% and areas that were 80% black went 0.5% towards Trump. Here:

Detailed Turnout Data Shows How Georgia Turned Blue https://nyti.ms/35HLTZv

Basically was old people, the suburbs, and rich people that made the shift. College grads increase may be attributed to the 2016 law too.

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I mean we haven't had a good democratic candidate since 2008 so it makes sense.


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DoomTheGyarados posted...

Now time for progressives to fucking hammer the democrats. This is a lot different world than 12 years ago with Obama. I don't expect everything, but they are going to give something.

Dems not doing anything with this would be heading right for a thwomping in 2022. Which of course means it will probably happen. I know people have pointed out things Manchin would definitely help with, but I see him more getting in the way over the next couple years than anything. And as for republicans crossing over, I can think of maybe three that might vote with dems occasionally on good stuff, and all of them are less likely than Manchin, imo.

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

What?

Like, the dude saying my wife said I could leave her for Stacey Abrams was obviously joking, but theyre all based on a very real hero worship thats going on.

Im not um actually ing anything, and Id appreciate you of all people not pulling this shit.

I wasn't talking about you, but the dude you just linked to is literally UM ACKSHULLY-ing in the tweet (ok well not literally but the gist of his tweet is "hey guys you shouldn't be celebrating Abrams that much").

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https://twitter.com/walldo/status/1346847469276168198?s=21

Ok Rudy
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Xeybozn posted...

Really? That's not what it looks like based on the last few presidential elections there.

2008: Democrats by 12.50% (5.22% above national margin)
2012: Democrats by 6.68% (2.82% above national margin)
2016: Democrats by 3.42% (1.33% above national margin)
2020: Democrats by 2.39% (2.06 below national margin)

Personally I don't know that much about NV (and they have the incumbency advantage in the 2022 Senate race), but this definitely doesn't look like a state trending towards the Democrats.

Thank you! I was going to look through the numbers, but I knew at least the ones from 2020 were not all that encouraging.

Like I know very little about her as a candidate other than she is a reliable D vote on everything, but I don't know how that'll play in 2022. And I don't think Kelly is safe in Arizona either. He's a very good candidate for the state but Arizona is only marginally blue and I don't know how well that holds up in 2022 in what is (based on historical standards) going to be a good year for republicans.

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https://twitter.com/rebtanhs/status/1346855118914920454?s=21

Somehow they managed to find him even with the camo
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Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/rebtanhs/status/1346855118914920454?s=21

Somehow they managed to find him even with the camo

He should be taking an oath under Trump, obviously.

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Stacey Abrams is getting a disproportionate amount of praise and there's a lot of cringeposting but I think downplaying her contribution while not mentioning all the other organizing going on in Georgia is pretty cynical. Her strategy works, there needs to be more people doing it, the positive energy around it is good, it just isn't all on her.

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Joint session starts in an hour.

I guess my stance is republicans (particularly Purdue) survive if only two of the following occur:

1) Trump doesnt spend the past two months crying on Twitter and telling his base their votes dont matter
2) McConnell allows for a vote on the bigger stimulus
3) Abrams spends the past four years on an intense and meaningful get out the vote effort

So is she solely responsible for what happened? Of course not. But like HDT says above, minimizing her contribution because ??? doesnt make sense right now when everyone is in a celebratory mood and she undoubtedly helped.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

Stacey Abrams is getting a disproportionate amount of praise and there's a lot of cringeposting but I think downplaying her contribution while not mentioning all the other organizing going on in Georgia is pretty cynical. Her strategy works, there needs to be more people doing it, the positive energy around it is good, it just isn't all on her.

I mean, a lot of this reeks as "stop having fun guys" but you are absolutely right that we should not and can't forget the many, many other activists and volunteers who helped the outreach efforts that made this possible. I've made sure to mention that in other topics myself.

UshiromiyaEva posted...

Joint session starts in an hour.

Yep. House starting up right now (c-span crew represent) though though I think they're just doing set-up for the joint session at 1.

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have we talked about ossoff's Thrawn trilogy tweets yet. that's the important thing.

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https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1346860213178085383?s=21

Oh hell yeah, bipartisanship aka nothing I actually want will get done.

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colliding posted...

have we talked about ossoff's Thrawn trilogy tweets yet. that's the important thing.

not as important as the possible formation of the senate anime caucus

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I'm in for a Senate anime caucus.
It's a long time coming but the make catgirls real caucus needs to ride that wave.

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idk is any of this stuff stuff you want? seeing as it is coming from biden himself?

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1346850884064587777

because that sounds like a nice list to me even if he may not go as far as i may like on all of them

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charmander6000 posted...

While there's no doubt Manchin will have a lot of pull, I feel there will be more instances of Republicans who "can't afford to vote no on certain things" voting with the Democrats.

McConnell not bringing those up for a vote protected them, but now they don't have that protection.

I agree. It won't happen as often as I'm sure we'd like, but the "moderate" Republicans in purple states are going to be pressured if the dems have any idea what they're doing*

*my expectations are low

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Rumor is that Biden is going to pick Merrick Garland for AG: https://twitter.com/tylerpager/status/1346866803524448258

Eh, not the biggest fan of this pick even though the troll game is pretty decent. Doug Jones would have been the better pick of the contenders. This is only okay because of the GA wins. If we didn't have the Senate I'd be at peak rage over a judicial vacancy.

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Peace___Frog posted...

the "moderate" Republicans in purple states are going to be pressured if the dems have any idea what they're doing

While this could happen to some extent, there are two reasons I doubt it becomes a big thing:

1) Only one-third of the Senate is ever up for reelection soon. The rest are pretty much free to do whatever they want because voters won't remember anything for that long.

2) Even purple-state Republicans have to worry about getting primary challenges from their right. Having a good record for reelection means nothing if it'll cost you your seat anyway.
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What time are they announcing and certifying the results?

I wanna know if I made $200 or not, lol.

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Peace___Frog posted...

I agree. It won't happen as often as I'm sure we'd like, but the "moderate" Republicans in purple states are going to be pressured if the dems have any idea what they're doing*

*my expectations are low

List of moderate republicans in purple states:
Susan Collins

She just won reelection and it is pretty clear her safe will always be 100% safe no matter what she does. You have Romney and Murkowski in that mix too, but of the three the only one I could see maybe being to the left of Manchin is Murkowski based on the coalition she's built in Alaska and how she's already gone around the republican party once there.

I dunno I'm just not very optimistic about this scenario happening at all.

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

What time are they announcing and certifying the results?

Starts at 1 PM. However, for every state the Republicans successfully object to (need at least 1 House Rep and 1 Senator) it's 2 hours of debate.

The thinking is they're going to object to 6 states: AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA, WI so that's 12 hours right there so we may not know until early tomorrow morning.

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There just aren't moderate republicans in purple states any more. They've all been booted. There are republicans in purple states but they either are retiring, not moderate, or just won reelection (or some combination of those three).

There are only six senators left that represent a party opposite the one that won their state in the 2020 presidential election. I just don't think there is going to be a lot of pressure for them to do anything other than toe the party line.

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xp1337 posted...

Starts at 1 PM. However, for every state the Republicans successfully object to (need at least 1 House Rep and 1 Senator) it's 2 hours of debate.

The thinking is they're going to object to 6 states: AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA, WI so that's 12 hours right there so we may not know until early tomorrow morning.

or they object to 50 states and pointlessly drag this out as long as possible
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NFUN posted...

or they object to 50 states and pointlessly drag this out as long as possible

...yes. hypothetically they could object to everything and drag this out 102 hours (I assume DC can be objected as well)

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NFUN posted...

or they object to 50 states and pointlessly drag this out as long as possible

They gotta be careful there because there is a portion of their base that believes they're actually being genuine, but if they start objecting to California it's going to lose them when they realize they're just bullshitting.