Board 8 > Hearthstone Topic:Madness at the Darkmoon Faire

(+) Yeah! (+)

Okay, I'll concede that there's a push here to try to get people into Ranked instead of Casual. I suppose I genuinely don't consider that much of a problem, since Casual tends to be filled with diamond and legend players learning new decks, while jank and non-competitive decks fill the lower ranked MMRs.
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And for what it's worth, I 100% agree that quests needs to function in Tavern Brawl again. I'm not sure why that was taken away; I sincerely believe it's a bug, not a design choice, but it's been hard to see if Blizzard's made a statement on that when so much of the discourse is flooded with people wanting that 10g/3 games back (after complaining about it for 6 years!).
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dowolf posted...

And for what it's worth, I 100% agree that quests needs to function in Tavern Brawl again. I'm not sure why that was taken away; I sincerely believe it's a bug, not a design choice, but it's been hard to see if Blizzard's made a statement on that when so much of the discourse is flooded with people wanting that 10g/3 games back (after complaining about it for 6 years!).

That would be nice if it was a bug (or it wasn't and they reverse course) and tavern brawl counts. For the record I think I usually don't like the Tavern Brawls, but there needs to be some way for F2P/new people to complete the 'play 3 games as...' quests that doesn't require having a deck for every class. They also seemingly got rid of the requirement for games to go to a certain point (mana/health) before they counted for certain quests. You can insta-concede and get credit for the 'play 3 games' quests. I wonder if that was also a mistake.

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ESY16 posted...

For the record I think I usually don't like the Tavern Brawls, but there needs to be some way for F2P/new people to complete the 'play 3 games as...' quests that doesn't require having a deck for every class.

I mean, I do have a collection, and I still queue up three games in casual as priest every couple months because I somehow wound up with three play-three-games quests that overlap on priest.

And yeah, I noticed quests counting even when I concede early too. I haven't insta-conceded, but sometimes it's turn 4 and, despite having played Mana Burn, your opponent puts out double Lightning Bloom, Coin, Desert Hare, Fist of Raden, the 4-mana pirate that gets cheaper by weapon cost, clears your board, and it's just gg's (God I've never wanted nerfs this bad, not even with Demon Hunter at release). It counting for quests has to be a bug, though.
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dowolf posted...

...You know what? It's time for surprise math lesson! YAY!

As someone with two degrees in mathematics, my time has come.

dowolf posted...

Ignoring the first four levels because we got those for free in the old system

It was typically a bit more than that. Launch quests log in bonuses were typically 1 legendary, 3 new set packs, 4 old set packs. So all of that should be subtracted.

(While they did say new events would be happening in the future, launch of a new set is normally considered an "event", and it wasn't this time).

dowolf posted...

2) Two tavern tickets (Total value: 300 gold)

I mean, I'm sitting on about 9 tavern tickets right now. I play arena very occasionally, but not faster than Blizzard gives me tickets. So these don't do a ton for me. Bear in mind they used to give these out with events, which is how I got so many, so this isn't really new added value either.

dowolf posted...

3) 7 packs, two of which are Madness packs. The lowest possible value we can reasonably give the packs is their minimum dust value, 40, so they are worth at minimum 280 gold. (You could very easily argue they're worth more.)

Due to the existence of the mini-set, the Madness packs are effectively 100 gold each because you should be saving them for the mini-set in two months (means you don't need to spend 100 gold at that time).

Minimum value of a pack...it depends. If the player base ends up super gold-starved, to the point where they're struggling to get enough gold to both get all the rares in the January mini-set and get all the rares in the March rotation set, the net value of a pack could be as low as 50 gold (which is to say 100 dust is worth about 48 gold in this scenario). Realistically, I trust that Blizzard will do enough events to give people their rares from the new sets, meaning that people will just be looking for epics and legendaries with extra gold, so old packs (and by old I mean year of the dragon) are probably worth 60. Slightly less old packs (like scholomance and ashes of outlands) IDK, maybe 80? Depends so much how many cards you crafted from Ashes of Outland.

That said, as mentioned above we do need to subtract the extra old packs that were usually given away when a new set launched, so we're left with like 2 Darkmoon packs and 1 old set pack for around 280. Funnily enough the number doesn't actually change here.

dowolf posted...

If you, say, value the legendary at 1600 gold and the epic at 400 (I do!)

Nope, nope, nope, nope. This is the biggest issue I have with your calculation.

2000 gold gets you 20 packs, which gets you (on average) 1 legendary, 4 epics, and 1236 dust assuming you dust all the commons, rares, and golden cards. Just...blatantly more stuff.

Valuing 1 random epic and 1 random legendary at 2000 gold is...just bad math.

So...what is the right value?

If we assume 50% of random legendaries are good and worth crafting, and the other 50% are bad and only worth 400 dust, this means the average value of a random legendary is 1000 dust. Same thing for epics, making the average value 250 dust. But then this also ups the value of a pack. If you dust everything in a pack it's worth 102.7 dust, but if 50% of the epics and legendaries from packs are cards you would consider crafting, and the other 50% are dust fodder, this ups the dust value of a pack to 164.1.

Under normal circumstances this makes the value of a random legendary about 600 gold, and the value of a random epic about 150 gold.

HOWEVER, we're heading into a bit of a gold crunch, where getting all the rares for the upcoming mini-set is going to syphon some gold from nearly all players. This means we also need to throw rares into the equation--changing the assumption to assuming that we don't dust all rares, only dust 50% of rares and would have crafted the rest ups the value of rares in packs to 60 dust, which makes the value of a pack go up to 207.1 Which makes the approximate gold value of a loose legendary 480 gold and the approximate value of a loose epic 120 gold.

So...750 gold for the legendary+epic if there's no rare gold crunch, 600 gold for the legendary+epic if there is a rare gold crunch.

I think it's a matter of opinion whether you use 750 or 600 here. I'm feeling nervous about the added cost of the mini-set so I'm leaning towards using 600, but we're talking a difference of 150 at the end of the day.

dowolf posted... So, with the maximum pessimistic assumptions, we're at 6630 total value, putting us modestly ahead

For me, net value is looking like 6430-6580 depending on my level of pesimism (attributing gold value to the non-gold rewards that were not typically given out to us). Similar total rewards to the old system, just some of it is in the form of packs and cards.

dowolf posted...

The only caveat to this is, of course, that I'm assuming the stated 400XP/hour in Ranked is accurate... and it is! Here, have some data: https://www.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/comments/jw7zw4/xp_per_hour_calculations_win1xp7s_loss1xp10s/ There's even some arguing that 400XP/hour undercounts the actual gains!

The thing I don't like, cause I do a lot of memeing in casual, is that it feels like casual gets significantly less XP than ranked. For instance, I won three games in a row casual with Wild Even Nzoth Reno Rogue. Not exactly a hyper aggro deck, though certainly can do some burst damage (does have oil and eviscerate in the deck). I recorded my xp before and after, I gained....93 XP (roughly equivalent to 3 gold; would have gotten 10 gold in the old system). Either that or my average game length is 4 minutes, which would mean I'm getting about half as much gold as the old system.

Also, not a great change for wild, which tends to have shorter games than standard no matter what you're playing.

Either way, as someone who likes wild, likes casual, and often uses aggro decks to climb back to diamond 5 in standard cause it's a much longer climb than climbing back to rank 5 under the old system, I am definitely losing out with this change. I get that it helps out people who needed some help (dedicated control standard players and battlegrounds players) but for me pretty sure it's going to be substantially negative.

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dowolf posted...

"down 3k" is literally not possible. It's not! At all! Even if you zero out all non-gold rewards and ignore the bonus 13 gold/week and the extra gold you're getting from playtime and achievements (which you of course shouldn't!), you'd still be down only 800! If there's an error in my math, you're welcome to point it out, but~

And if you consider a legendary worth less than 400 gold, I really don't know what to tell you.

I'd get about 6-6.5k or so in gold right now compared to about 7-7.5k before.

1) Casual only seems to get about 250xp an hour, so I'm already getting less for playing as someone that plays ranked, or any other mode for that matter. And that's for winning, so if I want to play some terrible deck just for fun that I know is going to lose most of the games I play before I even play them, I get even less. I seem to get just south of 200xp an hour on average from casual. I understand they do this so people can't just afk in casual all day, but as someone who likes playing casual it sucks.

2) The quest to win seven ranked games is the only quest on that xp tier, so if you reroll it you're guaranteed something worth less. So if I don't want to play ranked I'm down 750xp that week. I used to get to gold each month and then just play in casual for fun, as that's the point where it feels like the rewards for climbing ladder are eclipsed by having to play against the same four or so decks constantly.

3) I really don't like Duels the way it currently is and probably won't be playing it, so I'm not getting any of that xp. I really liked dungeon runs but deck variety is worse in this mode than it's even been in ranked.

4) The expansion achievements that reward xp are locked from casual, so I have to play ranked games with terrible meme decks to try and complete these. Even if I waited until I was on a rank floor and tried to play them there, it's still going to be against mostly meta decks that just want to win and move on and don't care that I need to deal 50 damage with Il'gynoth or whatever, so it would take substantially longer to achieve these than casual and I'd likely not be having that much fun in the process. I'll probably finish very few of these, especially since something like 75% of them require specific epics or legendaries that I don't have and/or aren't interested in anyway.

5) We get a handful of packs, but we lost a handful of packs from the missing legendary quest chain they normally do at the start of the expansion, so I look at them as a wash like the level one legendary that replaced the day one legendary we used to get.

6) After opening packs, if I want a specific epic or legendary I'd craft it with dust. I do not want a random card as a reward unless it's pretty much day one, so I absolutely treat that legendary as worth less than 400 gold. Right now, today, I'd rather have 100 gold, forget about 400 gold, to save for a future pack than any legendary, even one of my choosing. The only use for the legendaries I don't have right now would be to complete the achievements that require them, as the ones I'm actually interested in playing with I already have. When I land on a level that gives me a card or a tavern pass, I just feel like rather than gaining a reward I just lost out on potential gold.

This is why I said 1k-3k depending on if you want to take as an extreme view of it as I do. Even with this I still only expect to lose 1k gold by playing the game the way I want to play it. I sometimes open 50 packs, sometimes 75, so for the most part I could probably be gold neutral and continue to play the same way as I do now, just not with the ability to have a pile of gold ready in case I want to blow it on an expansion i really like. Which in turn leads to...

7) With the mini-expansion, I'll probably want to open another 15 packs or so. I have no idea how the card rarity is going to shake out so it might be more or less, but I look at this as another 1,500 gold or so that I'm going to need to spend to keep up my collection in the same way I used to. I realize this is less 'getting less gold' and more 'have to spend more gold' but they're kind of the same thing in the end.

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Damn. I spent so long typing that up, to be fair slowed down by watching a show at the same time, that I feel like I missed an entire conversation in the process.

ESY16 posted...

This quest can't be rerolled.

Wait, can you actually not reroll it at all? I just asummed it rolled into a lesser quest.

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metroid composite posted...

If we assume 50% of random legendaries are good and worth crafting, and the other 50% are bad and only worth 400 dust, this means the average value of a random legendary is 1000 dust.

My evaluation's certainly optimistic, which is why I included the 400 min baseline that you agree they're worth more than, but I think your evaluation is way too pessimistic. Good legendary rate is probably closer to at least 75%, at this point? My personal evaluation is 100%, because I don't like to dust any standard-playable legendaries (You can always wait till they rotate out!). I realize that this is a level of patience a lot of people don't have, though.

I think it's still fair to assume you're dusting 100% of rares for packs beyond the gold income we get now, since I'm willing to assume gold gain will be enough as f2p to get all the commons/rares (it took me 60 packs to get there for this set, at which point I stopped opening packs entirely).

Wild does get the same XP as standard, for what it's worth.
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As for what Camden said, I'm pretty sure I addressed most of those points in my initial post?

Like, what I've gotten out of this is that I genuinely didn't think so many people mostly engaged in Casual, rather than just play lower-tier Ranked.
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Also, I think the 1236 dust includes the dust you'd get for dusting golden epics/legendaries? So there's a bit of double-counting there.
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Can we please, for the love of fuck, remove Rez Priest from this game.

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Are we talking about the standard or wild variant? Because as someone who loves Priest above all other classes, fuck I hate wild Rez Priest.

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I was talking about standard specifically. I wouldn't be surprised if that deck has 100 winrate against DH right now.

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I don't think I've seen it once, wasn't aware it was a thing in standard that people were really playing.

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dowolf posted...

Good legendary rate is probably closer to at least 75%, at this point? My personal evaluation is 100%

OK, even if we evaluate that 100% of legendaries are good and worth crafting your initial assesssment was still way way off.

If random epics are always worth 400 dust, and random legendaries are always worth 1600 dust, then the average dust value of a pack is 225.5 dust. And if we further assume as you suggest that 6 releases per year won't cause any problems for getting all the rares....

This means 7.1 packs are equivalent to one random legendary, and 1.77 packs are equivalent to one random epic.

Which means 1 epic and 1 legendary are equivalent to 887 gold.

So...sure, 126 more gold if we feel that every random epic and every random legendary is a card so good that we would craft it anyway if we didn't get it on the rewards track. But still way, way, way less than your claim that 1 epic + 1 legendary = 2000 gold. There is no way to mathematically justify 2000; 887 gold is about the highest you can reasonably justify. (Outside of turbo whales who own every epic in the set, but don't own every legendary).

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dowolf posted...

Also, I think the 1236 dust includes the dust you'd get for dusting golden epics/legendaries? So there's a bit of double-counting there.

It assumes you either dust a golden epic/legendary, or keep/use a golden epic/legendary but don't care about the bling of it being golden. I used separate odds for opening non-golden epic and opening golden epic taken from data accumulated from 60,000 pack openings, so no, I didn't double count. My spreadsheet has 8 rarities (4 for non-golden pack openings and 4 for golden pack openings).

Either way, unless you're specifically collecting goldens, opening a golden epic is worth 400 dust, and opening a golden legendary is worth 1600 dust. Either you disenchant it and get that much dust, or it's a card you would have crafted anyway and saved that much crafting cost.

If you actually want golden cards, then the dust value of opening packs goes up (which would up the value of gold compared to non-golden rewards on the reward track).

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You're right that 2k gold is unjustifiable. It was a very lazy upper bound that I just slapped in there for fun at the last minute.

But we can still justify quite a bit higher than your value. First, you should not be dusting cards as soon as you open them, since if they get nerfed, you get the full dust value. Therefore, that dust isn't immediate value; it's value 1.5 years down the line. That should depreciate its worth somewhat in your mind. Second, a guaranteed legendary should be worth more than an expected legendary. I don't have a good way to get an exact value (and as a complexity theorist, I am very happy to just work with bounds, which is why I started with 400 and 2k :) ), but they oughta push you over 1k.
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I mean, MC is at the same value as me, roughly, when I was using the pessimistic assumptions, despite 0'ing out the value of the tavern ticket (which is weird, given you can just immediately resign the run for a pack and a bit of gold or dust, but *shrug*). And here is an alternative calculation that agrees with me: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbnBolNJhYA . Note that that was made before Blizzard swapped the packs for 1350 gold, though it does count both legendaries.
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Camden posted...

I don't think I've seen it once, wasn't aware it was a thing in standard that people were really playing.

Yeah it basically just runs taunts and healing to beat aggro. I doubt it has enough power to actually beat control decks. Here's the list I'm running into the most:

https://www.hearthstonetopdecks.com/decks/big-resurrect-priest-zetalot-darkmoon-faire/

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Yup, I've seen it too. But as someone who is learning ETC Warrior (and is, so far, very bad at it), I can confirm that they fold to control decks :)
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Yeah I played against one as DH and I'm just going to start auto-conceding if I run into it again. I got an achievement to deal 250 damage in one game, burned through every card in my deck, and the other guy still had 15 health left.

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dowolf posted...

But we can still justify quite a bit higher than your value.

Both your new suggestions push it lower btw.

dowolf posted...

First, you should not be dusting cards as soon as you open them, since if they get nerfed, you get the full dust value.

If we're accounting for nerfs, then commons and rares are worth EXTRA dust and the value of a pack increases by a noticable margin. Right now, they are nerfing about 10% of the cards from expansions.

Accounting for nerfs, and sticking with your assumption that every epic and legendary you open is a card so good you would craft it, the new expected dust value of a pack is 255.9.

Which means 1 epic + 1 rare is worth 782 gold.

(Using my "50% of cards are bad and won't get used" assumption, 643 gold).

dowolf posted...

Therefore, that dust isn't immediate value; it's value 1.5 years down the line. That should depreciate its worth somewhat in your mind

When you get the dust doesn't really matter though? Unless your dust count is sitting at 0.

If you want to talk about depreciation, I think the more significant depreciation is saving gold and packs for the mini-set--this means getting fewer epics and legendaries from the set at launch. If you save 2000 gold/the equivalent in packs (roughly what's needed to get the rares from the mini-set), that's 1 legendary and 4 epics you don't get to open until the middle of the expansion. Maybe by then you've crafted a few legendaries and epics, so duplicate protection means you're more likely to open bad ones

dowolf posted...

Second, a guaranteed legendary should be worth more than an expected legendary.

I mean, it's an average of 1 legendaries for 20 packs (Well...1.09 if you add golden and non-golden together 1 non-golden legendary, and 0.09 golden legendaries). You could theoretically open no legendaries or 10 legedaries. If you open no legendaries, obviously that's worse. If you open 10 legendaries, obviously that's better. This is why we use the average. Sometimes it's more (better) sometimes it's less (worse) but the average outcome is 1 legendary.

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skullbone posted...

Yeah I played against one as DH and I'm just going to start auto-conceding if I run into it again. I got an achievement to deal 250 damage in one game, burned through every card in my deck, and the other guy still had 15 health left.

Given how DH has been running roughshod over most decks on the ladder, I'm having trouble resisting calling you a crybaby who just wants free, fast wins. That's probably unfair, but given my experience against DH has been that maybe I should just concede and get it over with, it feels really rich to hear a DH complain about anything.

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dowolf posted...

And here is an alternative calculation that agrees with me: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbnBolNJhYA . Note that that was made before Blizzard swapped the packs for 1350 gold, though it does count both legendaries.

Yeah, that video isn't subtracting out the free legendary and free packs we used to get from the launch event that got moved into the rewards track, which would reduce their estimate by about 1300. (obviously this is before blizzard swapped packs for gold at the end of the rewards track).

(Worth noting that this youtube channel is usually focused on getting a 100% full collection through ridiculous amounts of grinding, which is why they start talking about earning 100 gold per day from the 10 wins per 3 gold, and then talk about how if you grind all the way to level 150 you get slightly more gold than that. They're so different from my playstyle that I usually just make my own spreadsheets).

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I played Priest last expansion and ran the Waterbearer/Khartut/Infiltrator set, but didn't use Vargoth or Mass Resurrection or, obviously, any of the new cards. I still beat Demon Hunter constantly, which was strange considering everyone I talked to and every meta report I saw said the opposite should be happening with pretty much any variety of Priest.

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azuarc posted...

Given how DH has been running roughshod over most decks on the ladder, I'm having trouble resisting calling you a crybaby who just wants free, fast wins. That's probably unfair, but given my experience against DH has been that maybe I should just concede and get it over with, it feels really rich to hear a DH complain about anything.

I mean I'm playing a lot of decks right now and this is basically the first DH deck I've ever tried to play seriously. I'm mainly playing control warlock but sometimes I just need some quick games as a palate cleanser.

Priest decks just seem built to annoy you though so I always hate playing against Priest no matter what I'm playing.

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Rattlegore gives you an alternate wincon, which is really good. I am running a list with two broomsticks, though.
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I considered the Cthun bundle but then I saw I could get Hades for the same price so yay I can ignore it

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I netdecked this list: https://www.hearthstonetopdecks.com/decks/etc-control-warrior-1-legend-xblyzes-darkmoon-faire/

Looks like I'm cutting the Galakrond and the Minefield for a second Broomstick and a Corsair Cache. I kind of want to cut a bladestorm for a minefield? But I figure I need to understand the deck better before I start making changes to it.
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why did the creator of that image go through the effort of blacking out her @ in most of them but then leave her full name visible on one of them

just dont censor any of it if youre going to do that
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I imagine they wanted people to think they were trying to keep it anonymous but just 'made a mistake'.

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UltimaterializerX posted...

https://imgur.com/2UZJBKE

Blizzard employees directly involved in overt racism, and Reddit moderators continue praising this writer, censoring the tweets, and have gone so far as to call them fake.

They are all real and remain on the account.

I've been running searches on twitter and I can't find most of these tweets.

The only one I can find is this one:

https://twitter.com/Authoroux/status/796231788167204868

Which...was written by a completely different woman (a book author with no connection I can see to Blizzard). So...that tweet looks like they photoshopped the Blizzard empoyees face onto the tweet, cause the tweet exists, but on a different account.

So uh, yeah, haven't found any of the other tweets in twitter's search but guessing the rest of this is fake too since none of them are showing up in a search.

(Also can't say I care that much what anyone on the WoW team does, the only reason I ever played WoW was to get to level 20 to unlock a Hearthstone portrait. It would need to be pretty serious for me to pay attention, and one low-level empoyee maybe making tweets that I can't find anymore just doesn't register).

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But you don't understand!

Blizzard
Activision
Worst
Terrible
Conspiracy
Called it
Everyone knows
Failed company
Literally obsessed.

.

Am I doing it right?

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If i hated everyone who was a dick on twitter, I'd have to hate literally everyone.

Granted I'm like halfway there anyways but.
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One of the legendaries I have that has an associated achievement for it, I decided to try and buff totems 100 times. Came across someone that was pretty much playing basic cards in wild and ended up finishing it in one game, which was a very different experience from the others I've tried to finish. No matter what I try and do to tip people off that I have no intentions of winning the game, I haven't found a single person willing to play along.




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Since I've had discussions on multiple different hearthstone forums about how much gold should be attributed to a random legendary (either in the rewards track or as part of a bundle), I made a reddit image with lots of alternative dusting styles/collecting styles:

https://old.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/comments/k2dbwe/how_much_gold_is_a_random_legendary_worth_a/

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At first glance, I don't understand how you're getting the common/rare values. Did you calculate out the probability of a card being nerfed?
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Ah, i have successfully "read the comments," as they say.

Kind of weird to think of where I fit in on that chart. My mindset is closets to "whale" (in that I've probably crafted all the epics I want fairly early, but am still hopeful for legendaries) though I usually only buy whatever things have cosmetics I like >_> But for instance, with a golden legendary, my mentality is usually to keep it around until it rotates out, and then, if it's not wild-viable, I cache it in for any other legendary. I suppose it'd be possible to math out the probability of a random legendary winding up as wild-viable, but once I start to account for the increase in cards/year over time versus the percent increase in the wild cardpool per set decreasing over time, I become a bit too lazy >_> (edit: literally how I think of this value is something like 3k dust, fwiw). Epics are pretty much the same way.

Edit: I wonder if all-golden whale actually overestimates their dust value, since I imagine they're still opening packs after they get 100% of golden commons? Not that I think that appellation applies to any of us :)
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Got bored and decided to try and get the Yogg achievements, not including the one where you need to get absolutely batshit rng lucky and somehow kill your opponent with the Oh My Yogg secret. Seriously, good luck with that.

Played as Rogue so I could Shadowstep him and get three attempts a game, and decided to keep track of how often I rolled each result.

14 - Random rush minions
10 - Classic Yogg
7 - Random 0 cost spells
5 - Steal three minions
1 - Destroy and absorb all minions
1 - Pyroblast party

Thankfully the first use of Pyroblast won the game for me, but the wheel must have been aligned against me because I actually had to keep playing after that to trigger the destroy and absorb effect.

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dowolf posted...

Edit: I wonder if all-golden whale actually overestimates their dust value, since I imagine they're still opening packs after they get 100% of golden commons? Not that I think that appellation applies to any of us :)

Yeah, IDK, I just tossed that one in for fun, so it might not be totally accurate.

I will say opening all golden commons takes a really, really long time, though. There's way more commons than any other rarity (like 54 commons, vs 25 legendaries) and you need two copies of each. And golden commons are barely more frequent than legendaries, so like...by the time you have all the golden commons from a set from opening packs, you have (on average) 3 copies of every legendary.

I guess there's some chance you complete the golden rares before the golden commons? For some reason, golden rares are almost as frequent as golden commons, and there's a lot less of them (32 rares in a set compared to 54 commons) so yeah, they probably complete the golden rares before the golden commons. Golden commons and golden rares should still complete around the same time.

But when you complete all golden commons and all golden rares, I'm not sure how far off you would be from just crafting the rest of the epics and legendaries.

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I think I've played the control warlock mirror about 5 times and my Y'Shaarj has been burned by tickatus literally every game.

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