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Topic	Hearthstone Topic:Madness at the Darkmoon Faire
metroid composite 11/25/20 1:41:00 PM #126:	dowolf posted... But we can still justify quite a bit higher than your value. Both your new suggestions push it lower btw. dowolf posted... First, you should not be dusting cards as soon as you open them, since if they get nerfed, you get the full dust value. If we're accounting for nerfs, then commons and rares are worth EXTRA dust and the value of a pack increases by a noticable margin. Right now, they are nerfing about 10% of the cards from expansions. Accounting for nerfs, and sticking with your assumption that every epic and legendary you open is a card so good you would craft it, the new expected dust value of a pack is 255.9. Which means 1 epic + 1 rare is worth 782 gold. (Using my "50% of cards are bad and won't get used" assumption, 643 gold). dowolf posted... Therefore, that dust isn't immediate value; it's value 1.5 years down the line. That should depreciate its worth somewhat in your mind When you get the dust doesn't really matter though? Unless your dust count is sitting at 0. If you want to talk about depreciation, I think the more significant depreciation is saving gold and packs for the mini-set--this means getting fewer epics and legendaries from the set at launch. If you save 2000 gold/the equivalent in packs (roughly what's needed to get the rares from the mini-set), that's 1 legendary and 4 epics you don't get to open until the middle of the expansion. Maybe by then you've crafted a few legendaries and epics, so duplicate protection means you're more likely to open bad ones dowolf posted... Second, a guaranteed legendary should be worth more than an expected legendary. I mean, it's an average of 1 legendaries for 20 packs (Well...1.09 if you add golden and non-golden together 1 non-golden legendary, and 0.09 golden legendaries). You could theoretically open no legendaries or 10 legedaries. If you open no legendaries, obviously that's worse. If you open 10 legendaries, obviously that's better. This is why we use the average. Sometimes it's more (better) sometimes it's less (worse) but the average outcome is 1 legendary. --- Cats land on their feet. Toast lands peanut butter side down. A cat with toast strapped to its back will hover above the ground in a state of quantum indecision <cite>metroid composite posted [p:947592324] in Hearthston... [t:79106207]...</cite> <quote>dowolf posted... </cite> <quote>But we can still justify quite a bit higher than your value.</quote> Both your new suggestions push it lower btw. dowolf posted... </cite> <quote>First, you should not be dusting cards as soon as you open them, since if they get nerfed, you get the full dust value.</quote> If we're accounting for nerfs, then commons and rares are worth EXTRA dust and the value of a pack increases by a noticable margin. Right now, they are nerfing about 10% of the cards from expansions. Accounting for nerfs, and sticking with your assumption that every epic and legendary you open is a card so good you would craft it, the new expected dust value of a pack is 255.9. Which means 1 epic + 1 rare is worth 782 gold. (Using my "50% of cards are bad and won't get used" assumption, 643 gold). dowolf posted... </cite> <quote>Therefore, that dust isn't immediate value; it's value 1.5 years down the line. That should depreciate its worth somewhat in your mind</quote> When you get the dust doesn't really matter though? Unless your dust count is sitting at 0. If you want to talk about depreciation, I think the more significant depreciation is saving gold and packs for the mini-set--this means getting fewer epics and legendaries from the set at launch. If you save 2000 gold/the equivalent in packs (roughly what's needed to get the rares from the mini-set), that's 1 legendary and 4 epics you don't get to open until the middle of the expansion. Maybe by then you've crafted a few legendaries and epics, so duplicate protection means you're more likely to open bad ones dowolf posted... </cite> <quote>Second, a guaranteed legendary should be worth more than an expected legendary.</quote> I mean, it's an average of 1 legendaries for 20 packs (Well...1.09 if you add golden and non-golden together 1 non-golden legendary, and 0.09 golden legendaries). You could theoretically open no legendaries or 10 legedaries. If you open no legendaries, obviously that's worse. If you open 10 legendaries, obviously that's better. This is why we use the average. Sometimes it's more (better) sometimes it's less (worse) but the average outcome is 1 legendary. --- Cats land on their feet. Toast lands peanut butter side down. A cat with toast strapped to its back will hover above the ground in a state of quantum indecision</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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