Board 8 > Election Stats and Discussion - Part 2

(+) Yeah! (+)

SantaRPidgey posted...

wait does that mean only around 300k people in Wisconsin didn't vote? Is that sus?

Those are registered votes, some people never vote.

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Susan Collins's opponent conceded. Congrats to Senator Collins - what a survivor! So if there is some chance of AZ being in play, then Pennsylvania would still be relevant, so I'll update it:

80% estimated in | Trump +8.1% | Trump +567k

Biden has cut about 140k off of Trump's peak lead, which topped out just a bit over 700k.

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ok Im most interested now in Nevada

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It's pretty wild to think about how it's coming down to a few states where the number of votes that went to candidates other than the major R/D choices would be enough to change the result if they went one way or the other

Like. People's choice to support the Constitution Party (for example) with their vote is an actual significant thing

That's the same thing that happened in 2016

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It remains just as wild today!

Biden has crossed under a 400k gap in Pennsylvania now. Philadelphia votes have been coming in in earnest.

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https://twitter.com/axios/status/1324083101430108160?s=19

Class act all around, really.

They probably should have just donated all that money to Graham's campaign instead. Maybe it would have stopped him from begging.

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Maine-2 has gone to Trump. If Nevada+North Carolina go to Biden and the rest to Trump we will get a 269-269 tie.

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I doubt North Carolina is going to Biden

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I agree, at the very least it would be very unlikely for just Nevada/North Carolina to go to Biden.

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I think Biden may be starting to run short on mail-in votes to count in Philadelphia. Apparently they have only received 350k mail-in votes (with another 70k that were requested and could possibly be received after election day). But they had already counted 40% of the 350k as of early this morning. If they are at 60% now, that leaves 140k mail-in votes received in Philly to count and 70k more that could possibly come in. Assuming 200k mail-in votes split for Biden 87-12 split, that gives 150k more net to Biden from mail-in votes in Philadelphia. I think they may have some more election day vote to count as well, but that would probably come in at something tame like 70-30 instead of the monstrous numbers Biden is putting up with mail votes.

The lead stands at 389k, so 150k net from Philadelphia would leave Biden with a need for substantial non-Philly sources to make that up. He can get maybe 80k more in Allegheny. Maybe 70k in the Philly suburbs. That's pretty much it for blue counties. Biden probably wins the mail in vote in a lot of red counties too, but not sure if he'll get the kind of margins/turnout he'll need.

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Nate Cohn seems to think Biden's on track for taking the lead:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324091547399409667

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It seems weird to me that they don't have an odd number for the electoral college to avoid a tie.

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PrivateBiscuit1 posted...

It seems weird to me that they don't have an odd number for the electoral college to avoid a tie.

Even number of states makes that kind of hard doesn't it.

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I don't have confidence in Trump holding Pennsylvania. Without some kind of past election to reference, it's just too hard to estimate what the percentages will be in the remaining vote. I do feel better about it than Georgia and Arizona.

I hope Maricopa doesn't intend to dump all their remaining count in one single update tonight. Better to release it gradually as it is counted!

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https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/04/least-400-k-ballots-left-count-arizona-republic-

estimates-and-number-certainly-higher/6157997002/

Ah, good news though. There are more than 600k ballots left to be counted in Arizona. Of that, about 420k is early vote in Maricopa County that was either received on Monday or Tuesday or physically dropped off on Tuesday. So if there's 600k outstanding, Trump would need to win a little over 58% to make the comeback.


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Keep in mind there was 600K outstanding or so in 18' with Mcsally and Sinema. Which Sinema won handily and eventually secured her win. It was official by the 12th.

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Yes, I've been reading a bunch about how the trend is expected to reverse this year, so that's actually encouraging to show that this kind of shift can happen.

In Georgia, Trump posts a rare gain on an update and is now at +78k. In Pennsylvania, Trump's lead is now down to 320k.

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Philadelphia reporting they have 120k more mail votes to count. Montgomery County has 50k. Allegheny reported 150k left this morning; I think they have around 50k left based on the reported counts today. Probably another 50k in Delaware County.

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Also there is still a route to 269-269 if Trump wins both Nevada and Arizona and loses Georgia.

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red sox 777 posted...

Also there is still a route to 269-269 if Trump wins both Nevada and Arizona and loses Georgia.

Didn't Biden get Nebraska 2nd?

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linkhatesganon posted...

Didn't Biden get Nebraska 2nd?

Yes, that eliminated the other route. But it made this one open up.

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Speaking of Georgia, I got some data from Dekalb County website. Over the past 5.5 hours, Trump is getting 18% of the votes being counted, which is actually higher than his overall percentage despite these being mail votes. I think Nate Cohn was talking earlier about a 93-7 split with the remaining Dekalb votes, which does not appear to be happening. And while trying to draw inferences from a fairly small number of votes in a deepest blue part of Georgia is probably grasping at straws, Trump needs it at this point, so let me expand:

If the reason Trump is doing better than expected with these Dekalb mail votes is that they were the ones received last, i.e. cast last, it's a good sign for him in Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada.

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turbopuns3 posted...

It's pretty wild to think about how it's coming down to a few states where the number of votes that went to candidates other than the major R/D choices would be enough to change the result if they went one way or the other

Like. People's choice to support the Constitution Party (for example) with their vote is an actual significant thing

That's only because people take ownership of 3rd party votes for some reason. It's also why they feel like a 3rd party vote is like someone breaking into their home and stealing their TV. When really a 3rd party vote mostly comes from the 50%+ of the electorate that does not vote. It's generally a null effect, other than the 5% popular vote funding thing (which unfortunately wasn't even close this time).

It's nice that the duopoly can be made to fear 5000 votes like that though.

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Yeah. I voted for Nader in '00 because I didn't want to support Bush or Gore. It wasn't that I necessarily liked Ralph Nader himself, but he was a semi-viable candidate that wasn't with the major parties.

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It's crazy how hard it is to bind a basic map of the election updates with some live needle-like indicators.

News sites are so damn scarred from 2016. Now it's all just live blogs with "well there's a 10% chance so anything can happen!" every other sentence.

(Oh wait I found 538's, it's nice)

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Further analysis of Dekalb: Initial report of 79k mail-in votes had Trump at 11%. The 40k mail-in votes since then have had Trump at 14%. I think Trump needs this trend to hold up in Pennsylvania.

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Decriminalized shrooms in DC by 75%, damn

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https://twitter.com/rexchapman/status/1324126195823333380?s=10

The whole suppressing the vote thing, or extent of suppression, is debatable. But the intent was there.

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And Biden breaches the 200k barrier in Pennsylvania.

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Trump's lead in PA is now at 164k.

I went through the remaining mail votes to be counted and basically Trump's problem is that he is losing the mail vote badly even in deep red counties. There is still quite a bit of mail vote left to count in those red counties, and it's breaking between 2-1 and 3-1 for Biden. Only in the most extreme counties, where Trump is winning around 90-10 with election day votes, is he actually winning the mail in vote. And there are very few counties like that.

Trump does seem to be doing better with the latter part of the count of the mail ballots within counties, presumably because he's not losing as badly among voters who submitted their ballots later, and the ballots received at the end may have been put into a later batch. We saw that effect in Florida and Arizona.

The strange thing is that he should not be losing the mail vote this badly given the party registration breakdown. The mail vote so far is behaving as if 100% of Democrats and independents voted for Biden and 10% of Republicans too. This is his best hope here - that at some point the results will go more into line with what you'd expect based on the party turnout numbers, perhaps because Republicans overwhelmingly submitted their ballots late. Also, apparently Allegheny is done counting now and there are 29k incorrectly sent ballots, for which they sent replacement ballots, that they are going to review on Friday manually. If a good portion of these are not counted because they would be double votes, that would help quite a bit.

With that said, my best estimate at this point is that Biden carries PA by around 20k.

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This is a nice limited noise topic. Thanks for doing the work to give regular updates.

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In Georgia, Trump's lead is down to 23k. Dekalb has finished counting. Fulton has what appears to be about 10k votes left - based on the last few batches Biden will probably gain +6k net from that. 3 hours ago the secretary of state said there were 90k votes left statewide, and 53k left outside Dekalb and Fulton. I'm not sure how much of that has come in since then, which would represent the amount of votes Biden has to work with to make up that last 17k. At his Atlanta pace that probably wouldn't be hard but he's out of Atlanta votes.

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11k cut in Maricopa based on 62k votes counted. That's.....over 58%. Still on pace!

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red sox 777 posted...

11k cut in Maricopa based on 62k votes counted. That's.....over 58%. Still on pace!

Isn't that pretty much exactly the pace, though? I thought 58% would lead to a photo finish.

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azuarc posted...

Isn't that pretty much exactly the pace, though? I thought 58% would lead to a photo finish.

I'm seeing an estimate of about 470k left statewide. People are saying 17k is in Pima and those votes are probably going to go 50/50 but if that's the case, there should also be over 100k in the rural counties, where Trump should have a substantial advantage. 58% over 470k would yield...75k. So yeah, on track for the photo finish!


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So help me out here
which states are important now?
Where could Trump still get the lead back from?
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Trump absolutely needs Pennsylvania - losing it is an instant loss. If he gets Pennsylvania, he needs two out of the three states of Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. Biden needs to get Pennsylvania, or two out of the three states of Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.

This is based on Trump winning a 269-269 tie due to more Republican state delegations in the House.

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Everywhere I've looked, Biden has already been declared the winner in Arizona for a while.

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Those were a little premature, though they say Biden is still technically favourite.
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I am not sure why it was counted already in the first place
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htaeD posted...

I am not sure why it was counted already in the first place

it wasn't (by ABC). this is literally yesterday's fake news. why respond to the guy in earnest?

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They jumped the gun on that. I don't understand how you call a state that close before any of the election day votes had even been counted, not to mention these 600k late early votes

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red sox 777 posted...

They jumped the gun on that. I don't understand how you call a state that close before any of the election day votes had even been counted, not to mention these 600k late early votes

well who owns Fox News

yeah, it's confirmed that fox and AP calling arizona was a mistake.

in other news, georgia is absurdly close and is 100% in recount territory. already posted in the politics containment topic but it seems relevant to this topic as well.

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