Board 8 > Election Stats and Discussion - Part 2

(+) Yeah! (+)

1 AM ET Update:

Pennsylvania:

With 64% of estimated votes in, Trump is leading by 14.6%, with a vote lead of 669k. Philadelphia County is up to 46% in.

Michigan:

With 58% of estimated votes in, Trump is leading by 8.4%, with a vote lead of 281k.

Wisconsin:

With 72% of estimated votes in, Trump is leading by 4.5%, with a vote lead of 115k.

Georgia:

With 85% of estimated votes in, Trump is leading by 5.4%, with a vote lead of 238k. Fulton and Dekalb just had another results drop - Fulton now at 72% and Dekalb is at 39%.


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Its over

Kureejii Lea posted...

Its over

For who?

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Looking like Biden wins. Vegas says so too now!

No way Biden wins

As if America will allow Biden to win

Trump will win to keep the trollin. Rollin

Anyone who thinks Trump won't win are delusional.

I'm British so I couldn't care less. But still.

Not sure I agree with the NYT Needle on Georgia. It looks like the vast majority of votes counted so far in Fulton are mail votes. Most of the Dekalb counted vote is also mail vote.

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Clark County and Washoe County just dropped a lot of votes in Nevada. I think this is the mail/early vote since it came all at once and immediately went to 75%/82% of estimated votes. +10 for Biden in Clark County which is slightly below what Hillary got in 2016. But if it is indeed the mail-in vote, Trump has a chance.

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And there's the big drop for Dekalb County. That was like a 110k swing for Biden. Lead now stands at 118k. Dekalb is now at 79%, Fulton is at 72%, Clayton is at 84%, Gwinnett is at 97%, and Cobb is at 89%.

So we got the huge bloc of Dekalb votes out of the way - that's the bluest county in Georgia.

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And there it is. Trump's lead has crossed 700k in Pennsylvania. We are getting very close to the point where Trump's lead will be larger than the remaining number of registered voters in Philadelphia County.

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Vegas odds now have Trump as a 2/3 favorite.

Pennsylvania: 74% in | Trump +12.7% | Trump +678k

Michigan: 71% in | Trump +7.5% | Trump +301k

Wisconsin: 82% in | Trump +4.0% | Trump +119k

Georgia: 92% in | Trump +2.2% | Trump +102k

Arizona: 82% in | Biden +5.0% | Biden +131k

Nevada: 79% in | Biden +2.5% | Biden +27k

We just got some more votes out of Fulton County. Biden cuts 16k votes, but Fulton now showing as 80% in per NYT, as is Dekalb.


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red sox 777 posted...

Vegas odds now have Trump as a 2/3 favorite.

Already back closer to 50/50

https://www.actionnetwork.com/politics/election-odds-predictions-trump-biden-betting-presidential-race-2020

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Whats the path for Biden to win it?

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Flip 2+ states out of Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania with mail-in ballots

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Which two are most reasonable to flip?

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Don't really know. North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia all have the slimmest margins right now (~100k) but I've heard Pennsylvania has the most mail-in ballots to count.

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Georgia is currently the closest of all those funny enough, but Wisconsin is also almost equally as close. Both are around 100k votes. But both also have 94% reporting in.

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how is Kanye West doing?

firefdr posted...

how is Kanye West doing?

currently auditioning to be Trump's new press secretary if he wins again

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Looks to me like flipping any of those states is unlikely at this point

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The county with Ann Arbor in it did a big drop and is now at 98% reporting. Trump's lead is down to 241k (5.7%).

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assuming 6 outstanding states, current Biden paths to victory:

PA + GA
PA + MI
PA + NC
GA + MI
any 3 of MI, GA, NC, WI, NV, except NC + WI + NV

Trump paths:

MI + GA + PA (a tie)
any 4 of WI, NC, MI, GA, PA
NV + any 3 of MI, NC, GA, PA

did this fast, hopefully I didn't miss any

edit - forgot to add AK to Trump's total which changes things a bit

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Washtenaw county is the one youre referring

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Milwaukee just came in and now Biden has a lead of just under 9,000. Green Bay looks to be the only major source of votes left and it is showing as 51% reporting.

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Wisconsin!

Still going huh

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Wayne County just did a big drop, although it's not reflected on the NYT map yet:

https://www.waynecounty.com/elected/clerk/election-results.aspx

This shows Biden now leading by 217k in Wayne County, which is 130k more than before, which would reduce Trump's lead to 67k.

Per that website NGamer's been citing, there should be an additional 89k or so mail-in votes that have not yet been counted. If those break 78/22 as the existing mail votes have in Wayne, Biden would gain about 50k. Looks like it's going to be very close.

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Also, I am both increasingly thinking Trump has Pennsylvania, and increasingly thinking that it's not going to be the pivot point state. Hard to see a path forward for Trump if he loses either Michigan or Georgia, given what we learned about the Nevada in-person vote being exhausted.

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Biden is the real life Mario! ;)

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Tg

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Zylothewolf posted...

Biden is the real life Mario! ;)

I was going to ask if that makes Trump Crono, but that's impossible.

Crono knows how to keep his mouth shut.
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Kinda unreal the results arent done by Election Day.

Not really. A lot of states don't count mail in ballots right away, and that was most of the vote this year. If they don't count them early, and in some cases like PA where some areas haven't even started yet, what do you expect?

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There was plenty of notice that mail-in ballots would increase this election. Tell everyone whos mailing their ballots to do so before, say, November 1 or else it wont be received by Election Day and therefore not counted.

This has all been insane

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Sunroof posted...

Kinda unreal the results arent done by Election Day.

honestly thinking about the past couple days its crazy to me that we ever know on Election Day

its such a huge undertaking to count all these votes, it seems like they shouldnt rush the process. This would be less of a mess if it was just universally agreed upon that everyone would release their results at the same time on Friday or something.
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i always assumed the chance we would know the outcome on election day was 0%.

which makes it kinda annoying to see the gazillion "YUP THIS IS OVER" posts (from both sides). also expected, though, as this board is well known for prematurely calling contest matches.

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Biden gets a big update out of Montgomery County (Philly suburbs) to bring Trump's lead under 600k. Montgomery is nearly exhausted of votes though (at 85% now).

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Sunroof posted...

Kinda unreal the results arent done by Election Day.

You mean like in 2000, where Al Gore was ahead in Florida on Election Day and Bush won thanks to mail-in ballots being counted later?
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Lolo_Guru posted...

I was going to ask if that makes Trump Crono, but that's impossible.

Crono knows how to keep his mouth shut.

Seems more like Magus/Knuckles.

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Biden wins as long as he maintains his lead in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin right?

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Yes.

firefdr posted...

how is Kanye West doing?

Well, he posted a tweet saying he voted for the first time ever and voted for himself and nothing else on his ballot, as evidenced by the picture he took and illegally shared with everyone on social media.

He conceded the election though, but has high hopes for Ye 2024.

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

i always assumed the chance we would know the outcome on election day was 0%.

which makes it kinda annoying to see the gazillion "YUP THIS IS OVER" posts (from both sides). also expected, though, as this board is well known for prematurely calling contest matches.

I am more of a I WANT THIS TO BE OVER kinda guy.
And I dont even live in america either!
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https://twitter.com/ChrisDJackson/status/1324027105982763011?s=19

Finally, something I can be proud of in my state!

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Why is it that I'm seeing WI as being actual level done but the NYT hasn't updated it as called?

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538 answered that:

The Wisconsin Elections Commission Administrator has told NBC reporters that all the votes are in. If theres nothing more to count, then Biden would seem to have won that state by 20,697 votes, but thats still within the 1 percent margin that would allow the Trump campaign to request a recount, though. Also, just in case youre seeing one of the many disinformation scams out there, Wisconsin has 3,684,726 active voters and counted 3,288,771 votes. ABC News has not issued a projection here, as the Decision Desk wont project races where the margin is within 1 percentage point.

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wait does that mean only around 300k people in Wisconsin didn't vote? Is that sus?

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This is going to be really tragic if Trump ends up losing this due to Nebraska-2.

I think Wisconsin and Michigan are done. Thinking Trump holds on to Pennsylvania and Georgia. Looks like Trump cut 40k off of Biden's 130k lead in Arizona this morning without touching Maricopa County yet.......that's the pace we need although obviously it's quite a hard task.

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