Board 8 > Election Stats and Discussion - Part 2

(+) Yeah! (+)

cerna_zelva posted...

Question that I haven't seen discussed anywhere. I've seen a few outlets mention that Georgia has about 10k overseas military ballots that won't be counted for a while, but how do overseas military ballots affect the other states that are close?

They are likely to favor Trump everywhere, but there just isn't enough of them outstanding to make a big difference. If those ballots haven't arrived by now, they might never arrive because the voter didn't send them. If you figure only 5k of those 10k ballots come in, and they split 2-1 for Trump, that's only about a 1700 vote swing in his favor. Which, in Georgia, could be a big deal, but probably isn't going to matter in other states.

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Philadelphia saying they are almost done with the mail vote count. They will release another 2-3k today, and the remaining votes are all either provisional, military/overseas, or require review. That's good news for Trump. A lot of the ballots requiring review probably don't get counted, he probably does alright with the military vote, and he only lost the election day vote at a 2.4-1 ratio. So Biden's probably only getting a few thousand more from Philadelphia.


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Trump just pulled an 81% update in Arizona. I think this was probably out of Mohave County, which is deep red, but he beat his overall percentage there by 7 points, so seems good. Lead down to 41k.

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Also, uh, Trump has cut 2000 votes off Biden's lead in Nevada in the last 3 hours, with updates averaging in the low 60s. There's 30k in total votes reported in this stretch so it must be coming out of Clark.....there just aren't enough votes elsewhere in the state to add that many. I suppose this is the election day provisional votes now being counted?

Edit: It appears the reduction the votes remaining was mostly caused by reduction in the estimate of remaining votes, not votes coming in. The batch was more like 8000 votes than 30k. But it's probably still out of Clark as that's where 90% of the remaining vote was supposed to be.

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stop

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The discussion and counting shall go on to the end.

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UltimaterializerX posted...

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1324783531139235841?s=21

Hahahahahahaha

https://twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1324783040787144705?s=21

This is such a shit show and I love every second of it.

Our garbage-ass election process deserves this.

I was wondering what happened there on election night! How does a rural Michigan county go from +30 for Trump in 2016 to +30 for Biden this year.

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Well, it looks like it was corrected and Biden is still 150k ahead in Michigan, but Trump should demand a hand recount in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin. And don't do what Gore did, which is only ask for a recount in a few counties that went your way, hoping to pick up votes that way. Recount the whole state, as is fair.

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UltimaterializerX posted...

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1324783531139235841?s=21

Hahahahahahaha

https://twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1324783040787144705?s=21

This is such a shit show and I love every second of it.

Our garbage-ass election process deserves this.

that Charlie Kirk tweet is dumb

there are way more people voting this year, why wouldnt there be more 90 year-olds voting too? There are ways to register without going to a physical location so its not dangerous and if anything the pandemic should have made it easier for them to vote (because mail) and provided them a clear motivation to do it.
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Never mind on what I said about Nevada. Apparently those votes this morning were indeed from counties other than Clark and Clark still has another 60k mail votes to be counted.

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Ulti wants this election to be illegitimate so badly
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He claims he doesn't care, but it's so obvious that he does.

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I still don't think Pa is gonna be close enough for a recount.

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RaidenGarai posted...

He claims he doesn't care, but it's so obvious that he does.

Ulti desperately wants to live in a world where this stuff is true because his real life is that boring and underwhelming.

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UltimaterializerX posted...

Yes but not for the reason you think. Our entire election system and how we vote needs to be burned down, scrapped, and totally rebuilt. This type of garbage is how we do it.

No its not. If 2000 didnt do it, why would this?
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Crossfiyah posted...

Ulti desperately wants to live in a world where this stuff is true because his real life is that boring and underwhelming.

It's really pathetic

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Jakyl25 posted...

No its not. If 2000 didnt do it, why would this?

2000 did do it. Look at how quickly and efficiently Florida counted their votes this year. They were done early on election night, and that's with a lot of people voting by mail.

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while we are talking about our flawed election system, here is an update on the election lawsuits filed in 2016 in key swing states:
https://twitter.com/DrJillStein/status/1322251491781058566

Pennsylvania Provisional Update:

Montour County just came in. It has an overall 60-40 split for Trump, an election day 75/25 split, and the provisionals just came in at 70-30. Only 51-22 so major small sample size warning. This is the first non-deep red county we've seen provisionals from.

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UltimaterializerX posted...

Can someone explain why NC hasn't given an update since election night and why no one is calling Alaska?

In NC, ballots postmarked by Election Day are accepted until the 12th, so...they're probably just waiting.

As for Alaska, I dunno it's Alaska, maybe it just takes a while.

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They haven't counted any mail vote from Alaska yet apparently. I guess they just have to start seeing that come in to make sure it isn't Pennsylvania part 2 where Biden gets 75%+ of the mail vote.

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Best provisional update for Trump so far: Bradford County comes in at Trump 298, Biden 91. Percentages are in line with before - they are consistently a few points lower than the election day vote, but this one comes in close to 2% of the election day votes cast.

Over in Georgia, the provisionals so far have gone Trump 642, Biden 378.

Also, Philadelphia dropped another 2300 votes - I think that's the end of the line for their mail votes without issues. No word from Allegheny yet about what's going to happen to their trove of 35k mail votes.

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red sox 777 posted...

They haven't counted any mail vote from Alaska yet apparently. I guess they just have to start seeing that come in to make sure it isn't Pennsylvania part 2 where Biden gets 75%+ of the mail vote.

Maybe Alaska is delivering their mail in votes by sled dog?

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Jakyl25 posted...

No its not. If 2000 didnt do it, why would this?

More exposure this time.

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Yeah people really are gonna revolt if Trump isn't re-elected

They really love and respect him so much

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Associated Press just called Pennsylvania for Joe Biden, giving him over 270 electoral votes.

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Biden got a lot more votes from Allegheny. Looks like at least 19,000 out of those 29,000 they waited for days to count were not duplicate votes. At 34k, even assuming the other 10k from Allegheny were rejected as duplicate votes, there is just too much lead to overcome even with an outstanding performance in the provisionals. Nonetheless, depending on how he does with them, it may end up close enough for a recount. A recount is unlikely to move the results more than a few hundred, but a hand recount could take weeks.

Similar story in Georgia. Fulton dropped 5000 more votes overnight and Biden's lead is over 7000. There almost certainly just isn't enough provisional and military vote out there to overcome that.

In Arizona, on the other hand, Trump got a very nice 59% update out of Maricopa this morning, and the lead is down to 20k. If he pulls it out, my prediction will end up 47/50, with misses in PA, GA, and NV. NV should be the only miss over 0.5%.

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Update on provisionals from Lancaster:

Trump 1274
Biden 1154

Provisional split: 52-47
Election day split: 72-27
Overall split: 57-41

That's the first big county to report provisionals, and it looks like he may not even get 50% with the provisionals statewide, as he is below his overall numbers here, and undershot his election day percentage by 20 points.

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I want to do a final comparison of my state-by-state predictions with percentages with the results, but the mail votes are taking a LONG time to count in places like California and New York. Guess we'll need to wait a little longer to do that final comparison.

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Looks like almost everything is in. Probably enough is in that I can do my final recap and comparison of my predictions to 538's (I am pretty sure I demolished them on state-by-state percentages).

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