Board 8 > Election Stats and Discussion - Part 2

(+) Yeah! (+)

I predict Trump +1,500 in Georgia.

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We got some more votes out of Pennsylvania including a little over 20k from Philadelphia. The encouraging thing is that Trump got nearly 10% of this batch from Philly compared to the 6% he was getting from earlier mail-in votes there. The pattern of Trump doing better with late mail-in votes than early mail-in votes continues. Still consider Biden the favorite in PA.

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Another drop of 12k or so votes in Philadelphia, and Trump still slightly below 10%. He needs to pick up the pace. It's hard to see him winning if he can't get well above 10% with the remaining Philadelphia votes.

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Nevada time

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Biden now up 12k in NV

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Looks like Biden is decisively winning late mail ballots in Clark County. Trump's last chance is that the same-day voter registration votes break decisively for him.

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That doesn't seem too hard to believe honestly - a lot of people are very invested in this election, or more able to vote due to working from home/unemployment, or both.

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The number of same day registration votes cast in Clark County, Nevada is also extremely high. Nearly as high as the number of regular election day votes. I suppose it's because Nevada mails all registered voters a ballot, while if you aren't registered you can still go register at the polls on election day. It's really really hard for me to imagine same day registration votes breaking for a Republican though. It goes against everything we've heard for the last 20 years since Bush vs. Gore.

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LOL apparently one of the most popular write in choices in Georgia is Mike Pence. I presume the Trump campaign will be suing to count those as Trump vote as soon as they found out.

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red sox 777 posted...

LOL apparently one of the most popular write in choices in Georgia is Mike Pence. I presume the Trump campaign will be suing to count those as Trump vote as soon as they found out.

How many? If it's a couple thousand it could very well be enough to flip the result.

Not that Trump would be successful in court.

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Im hearing that PA has a bit less votes left to count than I was hearing earlier (on CNN) but they are asking to double check their numbers.

feeling like itd be a great time to bet Trump

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That's some real WWE type of shit right there. "Betrayed" by your own partner!

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what would Mike Pence's entrance music be?

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still waiting for Bernie to cash in money in the bank

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370k votes left in PA

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This is giving me Mario v Crono flashbacks

UltimaterializerX posted...

Trump was never going to win Nevada.

Also: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1324093624611532800.html?

This is getting beyond fishy.

Wisconsin has election day registration, so there are now a ton of voters that are on the rolls that weren't when that registered voters number was generated. The final tally will show a much more reasonable turnout percentage.

He's still going on about that? Ulti really doesn't know when to take the loss and move on.

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Also, we know that states targeted for voter suppression tend to have enthusiastic turnout in the next election, at least if it gets any kind of attention. Wisconsin's been marinating in it since April, when a Republican judge ruled that ballots had to be in by election day, instead of postmarked by election day. (Not voter suppression in most circumstances, but here it was done very close to the election, with some people already having sent ballots that would likely not arrive by election day). Dems won that one big, mostly off of the turnout boost that the debate over the decision caused. It wouldn't be surprising if Wisconsin's turnout was up by a lot, even for this high turnout election. Same thing with Georgia.

neonreaper posted...

what would Mike Pence's entrance music be?

https://youtu.be/OusADDs_3ps

And we finally have another Philadelphia update, which brings Trump's lead in Pennsylvania under 100k.

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UltimaterializerX posted...

CNN says there are about 85,000 left in that county. Biden will get about 80% of those, or 68k. I don't see where he's supposed to get the other 30k from, especially once courts get involved and votes get audited.

It is straight up illegal to bar poll watchers and they banned watchers from BOTH parties.

The problem is Biden has been consistently winning the mail-in vote from red counties, and crushing it in purple counties, and there is plenty of remaining mail vote from those counties to count.

I think Trump's last best hope is that the last batch of mail vote is substantially better than earlier ones. This is what happened in Arizona where there was a huge gap between the ballots received on Monday and Tuesday and the ballots received before Sunday. In PA, it looks like they received about 14k more mail votes after Election Day, and these are coming in at around 30% Republican by party registration, compared to 23% before, so Trump's team wants to hope that that reflects a trend. The fact that Trump still only has 516k mail votes in while 620k Republicans voted by mail would be a sign this is possible, although it's probably more likely that it just means a significant number of Republicans who voted by mail voted for Biden.


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Also, if they can get those 14k votes received after election day tossed, and that is split 70/30, that would net them around 5k votes. So if it ends within that Trump may be able to get SCOTUS to help him out, but beyond that it's not looking like the litigation will matter.

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In Arizona news, Trump has been very slowly cutting Biden with non-Maricopa votes and the lead is now under 68k. I'm not sure if the votes are coming from Pima or the rural counties.

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Looks like those 7000 last Fulton votes finally got uploaded. Biden gained about 3,000 and the lead is under 10k.

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At this point I am just not seeing how Trump can hold off this Biden surge in PA with the mail-in ballots. I projected Biden +20k last night and everything I've seen today is consistent with that. Trump is running out of lead with which to work.

Apparently provisional ballots have not been counted yet. As in, they haven't started counting them yet anywhere in PA, and probably anywhere in GA. That's a wild card which is good for the underdog. Normally I'd expect provisional ballots to be pretty strongly blue, but if casting a provisional ballot is predicated on showing up at a polling place, well Trump dominated the in-person voting, so maybe, just maybe, he can win them. At this point the more unknown factors the better Trump's chances are.

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There's Cumberland that just came in. 36k votes that went 66% for Biden. That's the second half of Cumberland's mail votes. The first half went 75% for Biden. This is a red county and Trump won by 11 points there overall. This is why it's so hard for him to hold off this Biden surge. So I checked my spreadsheet from last night, and Trump actually did 1000 votes better than I was projecting there, despite losing nearly 12,000 votes off his lead.

Trump's Very Long and Narrow Pathway to Victory:

1. Hold Biden's lead to under 20k with the mail ballots + election day balots.
2. Win the remaining military ballots that haven't come in yet.
3. Win the provisional ballots.
4. If the election is within 10k or so, win at SCOTUS to get the late-received mail votes thrown out.

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In Arizona, Trump gets a 61% block of 12,000 votes to bring the lead down to 65k. I'm not sure which counties this is coming from, other than that it is not Maricopa.

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UltimaterializerX posted...

They dont have enough outstanding to make up 9,500 without shenanigans, and that state is getting recounted anyway.

Hell they probably all are at this rate. The entire
world is laughing at us.

yeah but not for the reason you seem to think they are
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curious, any idea of military votes are counted yet?
as i'm imagining that's the next angle of votes to come in that lean R.

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From what I'm reading, there probably are only a few thousand that haven't been counted yet. As of this morning, 8,899 that were requested in Georgia and haven't come in. In Pennsylvania, that's 10,478. But, a lot of those votes are probably not going to be returned because the requestor decided not to end up voting. They do have until November 10 to be received, it seems. The longer time is an express carveout of federal law.

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!!!

Trump just scored 16.98% on an update from Philadelphia. It was a 4400 vote block. Remember, he was at 6% for the first 2/3 of the Philly mail vote, and he's been running at 10% today. Probably an aberration, but if he can hold that percentage for the remaining 80k left in the Philadelphia vote, he would only lose....53k. That would be much better than losing 64k.

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Wanglicious posted...

curious, any idea of military votes are counted yet?
as i'm imagining that's the next angle of votes to come in that lean R.

https://bit.ly/3511QJA
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An update with around 17k votes just came in from Philadelphia, and it's another update for Trump far above his average with the mail votes, albeit not as good as the last one. 13.25% that time. We should have around 64k more votes from Philadelphia - if Trump maintains 13.25%, that would yield 47k for Biden.

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250k mail votes left to count in PA. I think it's still trending toward Biden +20k.

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Arizona news! Lead is down to 56k.

Trump getting some excellent updates in non-Maricopa counties (between 58% and 76%). Much of this has come from Pima, where Biden is winning overall by 20 points. If Trump can pull out 58% updates in Pima, this late early vote is clearly breaking very strongly for him and I would consider him the favorite.

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And there's that update from Maricopa. Lead now stands at 46k with Trump getting 57% in that last batch. Trending toward a photo finish.

Georgia is going to come down to the provisional and outstanding military ballots. Should be no call tonight, even if Biden takes the lead.

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This shit is still going on?

Has Trump lost yet?

Not officially. Biden's at 264 EVs.

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Quite a good chance Biden takes the lead in both PA and GA tonight. Trump's last hope is to hit a home run with election day provisional ballots.

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New update from Philadelphia - 13k more votes drop and Trump at 12.7% on that batch. Not good enough. Lead is down to 26k.

There are now 22k mail-in votes received after election day. Based on the party registration numbers, these votes as not as strongly pro-Democrat as the earlier ones, so Biden is winning perhaps 70/30 with them. Tossing them out, supposing they are splitting 70/30 for Biden, would net around 9,000 votes for Trump.

I do think the case to exclude those ballots is a slam dunk IF the Supreme Court applies Bush v. Gore as controlling precedent. The holding was quite clear. In that case, as a matter of federal constitutional law, the will of the Florida legislature controlled over the Florida constitution in the area of setting procedures for a presidential election. And that's the case here - the statute passed by the PA legislature saying ballots have to arrive by election day is an act of the legislature, to which the state supreme court created an exception under the Pennsylvania constitution. But Bush v. Gore says that the state constitution does not matter.

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Oh, good news. At least one county in Pennsylvania has started counting provisional ballots. The current count is:

Trump 319
Biden 74
Jorgensen 8

These are probably from a red county, but 81% is pretty good!

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More info and a lot of extrapolation on that first batch of PA provisionals:

These came from 3 deep red counties. The total election day vote in these counties was 29,599. There were 401 provisional votes accepted, for a rate of 1.35 provisional votes for every 100 election day votes. The election day percentage for Trump in these counties was 86.2%, compared to 79.6% with the provisionals (My earlier 81% was of the Trump/Biden votes only, not factoring in the Jorgensen votes in the denominator).

If that rate of 1.35 provisional votes to 100 election day votes holds up, there were 4,178,428 election day votes, giving us a projected number of accepted provisional votes of....56k. If Trump wins those at the same rate of the election day votes (65%), he would gain....about 17k votes. That's probably still not enough as I think Biden is on pace to get a lead of more than 20k by the time the mail votes are done, but it could possibly bring it within range of making a difference if SCOTUS throws out the late mail votes.

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Found an article saying that the PA SOS confirmed 92,500 provisional ballots were cast across 44 out of 67 counties. They don't have data yet for the other counties. Now I would expect a lot of these ballots will end up not counting, but I do feel a bit better about my provisional ballot theory.

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Overnight Biden took the lead in Pennsylvania and Georgia. Biden's lead now stands just under 9000 in PA. Looks like there is about 85k in mail vote left to count, not including 35k in Allegheny that may or may not be duplicate ballots. Not clear how many of the remaining mail ballots were not counted because they were rejected. Many counties have had a few hundred or a few thousand left to count for a long time, after doing big drops.

And we have another county's provisional votes come in! Tioga County just reported:

Trump 229
Biden 68
Jorgensen 2

That's 76.7% of the Trump/Biden votes for Trump, which is a little above the overall Trump percentage for Tioga County, and a few points below his election day percentage. Where the real test for the provisionals will be is when we see a big blue or swing county come in - Trump won the election day vote in every county in Pennsylvania except Philadelphia, so if the provisionals come in here his election day percentages statewide, we may have ourselves a match.

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Question that I haven't seen discussed anywhere. I've seen a few outlets mention that Georgia has about 10k overseas military ballots that won't be counted for a while, but how do overseas military ballots affect the other states that are close?