Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 328: Poll Dancing

(+) Yeah! (+)

Corrik7 posted...

Why would they want to stop the count?

I think the basic idea is that minority groups are typically harder to count (probably even moreso than usual given that the Trump administration has given many of them cause to distrust the government), so if you stop counting early you would expect to bias the count towards whiter states.

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https://twitter.com/mattzap/status/1316142614979186688

It's almost as if the unmasking "scandal" was transparent bullshit that tried to turn standard government practice into an anti-Trump conspiracy from the very start...!

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I really wish they would stop. Just... stop.

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I found the Nancy Pelosi v Wolf Blitzer video Corrik was talking about.

Its a difficult watch.

https://twitter.com/shafieikeyvan/status/1316165871862272013?s=21

Retire, you senile old bat.

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California GOP is refusing to dispose of the illegal ballot boxes they set up, says they will continue to use them to gather votes.

Considering it's been stated they're going to be calling the source of every ballot gathered through this method and require the voter NAME the person who they authorized to take their ballot or else it will be disposed of...probably another one that's going to bite them in the ass.

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Trump will just claim it's the Democrats trying to rig the election when that happens. He's desperate.

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How much does it really matter if Trump tries to claim the election was rigged if he loses, anyway? I don't think he has enough support among judges and elected officials for his whining to change anything unless the election is super close.
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Trump has appointed a LOT of judges.

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Xeybozn posted...

How much does it really matter if Trump tries to claim the election was rigged if he loses, anyway? I don't think he has enough support among judges and elected officials for his whining to change anything unless the election is super close.

The worry is primarily for the case where it's close (at least in the EC). If Biden wins the popular vote by 10 points and gets like 4-5 states beyond the tipping point Trump is done. He'll flail around helplessly and maybe end up having to be physically dragged out of the White House, but Biden will be president. If Biden just barely wins back MI+WI+PA, though, I think we can expect to see massive efforts to invalidate votes in every state that's remotely close, and Trump won't need to be successful in all of them to steal the election. (I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that the Supreme Court would let him get away with it even in that situation, but I certainly don't want to be counting on Brett Kavanaugh to do the right thing when it counts).

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The other worry is that Biden wins by a ton but because he takes mail-in voting by a huge margin the "day of" numbers will appear close and trump will cry foul as the counted numbers continue to get worse for trump and better for biden.

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Forceful_Dragon posted...

The other worry is that Biden wins by a ton but because he takes mail-in voting by a huge margin the "day of" numbers will appear close and trump will cry foul as the counted numbers continue to get worse for trump and better for biden.

This is 99% what will happen unless Biden wins huge. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin do not allow counting of mail in ballots until election day for some reason. Trump is going to claimed rigging and his supporters will believe it.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/mattzap/status/1316142614979186688

It's almost as if the unmasking "scandal" was transparent bullshit that tried to turn standard government practice into an anti-Trump conspiracy from the very start...!

Bill Barr wants desperately to James Comey this thing up but no such luck.

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Forceful_Dragon posted...

The other worry is that Biden wins by a ton but because he takes mail-in voting by a huge margin the "day of" numbers will appear close and trump will cry foul as the counted numbers continue to get worse for trump and better for biden.

See, I'm not sure this actually works for Trump when he tries it. Since everybody expects this to happen, the media won't going to call the election for Trump until most of the mail-in votes are counted. The whole thing will end up being Trump declaring that he won without any support, which will work about as well as Trump's claims that he really won California in 2016 but the vote was rigged somehow. A few crazy people will believe Trump, others will pretend to as a show of support for the GOP, but most people will accept the results and move on.

Now if the whole election does come down to just WI and/or PA and they're genuinely close even after mail-in ballots are counted, then it could work for Trump. It's just that right now that looks very unlikely.
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I have a weird question. Has anyone noticed a lot of Republicans complaining how they are polling them for who they are voting for this year and then posting on Facebook how they are fucking with the likely robots (lol) in their responses because it's annoying as fuck they are taking their time to poll them.

While they also every year, including this year, complain how the polls are inaccurate and don't reflect the truth and when you ask why... They always say "well who are they polling. Think about it. How many times have you been polled?".

Lol... Um... Lol.

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The polls in 2016 and 2018 were within the margin of error. 538 was literally a Florida away from nailing everything.

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Corrik7 posted...

I have a weird question. Has anyone noticed a lot of Republicans complaining how they are polling them for who they are voting for this year and then posting on Facebook how they are fucking with the likely robots (lol) in their responses because it's annoying as fuck they are taking their time to poll them.

While they also every year, including this year, complain how the polls are inaccurate and don't reflect the truth and when you ask why... They always say "well who are they polling. Think about it. How many times have you been polled?".

Lol... Um... Lol.

I have noticed both of those but I dont know if they are the same people
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https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1316167099170123776?s=21

It really does sound like hes apologizing for finishing sex early and leaving
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LordoftheMorons posted...

The worry is primarily for the case where it's close (at least in the EC). If Biden wins the popular vote by 10 points and gets like 4-5 states beyond the tipping point Trump is done. He'll flail around helplessly and maybe end up having to be physically dragged out of the White House, but Biden will be president. If Biden just barely wins back MI+WI+PA, though, I think we can expect to see massive efforts to invalidate votes in every state that's remotely close, and Trump won't need to be successful in all of them to steal the election. (I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that the Supreme Court would let him get away with it even in that situation, but I certainly don't want to be counting on Brett Kavanaugh to do the right thing when it counts).

Congress (the new Congress) is ultimately in charge of counting the electoral votes. We had a disputed election in 1876. 2 sets of electoral votes were submitted on behalf of 3 states. Without these 3 states, the Democratic candidate was 1 electoral vote short of a majority. If the Republican won all of these electoral votes, he would win with an EC majority of 1. Congress deadlocked and finally set up a commission of 15 members and agreed to do what they said. 10 members were members of Congress, 5 Republicans and 5 Democrats. The other 5 members were Supreme Court justices, under the theory that they would be nonpartisan. There were 3 Republicans and 2 Democrats. Naturally, the Commission voted 8-7 to count the Republican slate of votes for all 3 states and the Republican won 185-184. (He also lost the national popular vote).

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Saw a clip from Judge Barrett's confirmation hearing. Wow, Senator Hirono is a disgrace. Mitch, please adopt a new rule that extends the rule against impugning the honor of a senator to federal judges (maybe to all witnesses, but certainly federal judges).

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red sox 777 posted...

Saw a clip from Judge Barrett's confirmation hearing. Wow, Senator Hirono is a disgrace. Mitch, please adopt a new rule that extends the rule against impugning the honor of a senator to federal judges (maybe to all witnesses, but certainly federal judges).

Clutch them pearls.

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https://www.newsweek.com/white-house-embraces-herd-immunity-latest-push-end-covid-19-lockdowns-1538430

Fuck all of these people

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I thought were supposed to have a vaccine day now so why would trump not just want to wait for that

seems fishy to me
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https://twitter.com/blakehounshell/status/1316226126692397056

Glad we have a conspiracy theory-peddling lunatic as president
I'm sure that hasn't had any consequences

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Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1316167099170123776?s=21

It really does sound like hes apologizing for finishing sex early and leaving

Someone should ask Stormy Daniels if this sounds familiar.

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https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1316031426618327040?s=21

How big?
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Suprak the Stud posted...

This is 99% what will happen unless Biden wins huge. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin do not allow counting of mail in ballots until election day for some reason. Trump is going to claimed rigging and his supporters will believe it.

While this is definitely Trump's plan given he has literally said it repeatedly, the flip side is that it could actually backfire in other states where they do start counting the early and absentee ballots early, like Florida, so you would expect the initial results to open with a notable Biden lead based on the early voting stats to this point.

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Anyway, let's check in on some of the past rulings by our soon-to-be-SCOTUS justice.

https://twitter.com/richardmarx/status/1316112964437471232

In which Barrett states in a ruling that being called the n-word by your supervisor does not constitute a "hostile or abusive work environment." Notably (in a different case) Kavanaugh of all people was like "that's ridiculous." (Barrett's case was a 2019 one. Kavanaugh's case was 2013.)

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As a matter of law I'm not sure she's wrong; my understanding is that behavior typically has to be a pervasive thing (rather than a one-time incident) to generate a hostile work environment by the legal definition.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/blakehounshell/status/1316226126692397056

Glad we have a conspiracy theory-peddling lunatic as president
I'm sure that hasn't had any consequences

God damn it Trump, stop doing things I can't defend

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xp1337 posted...

While this is definitely Trump's plan given he has literally said it repeatedly, the flip side is that it could actually backfire in other states where they do start counting the early and absentee ballots early, like Florida, so you would expect the initial results to open with a notable Biden lead based on the early voting stats to this point.

So, yes, most optimistic scenario Biden doesn't need Pennsylvania or Wisconsin called the night of because he also wins Florida and Arizona and North Carolina or something along those lines. That certainly is possible and means we all get to go to sleep happy.

However, if the polls tighten a little (not completely unexpected running up to election day), then maybe he loses those states he has 2-3 point leads in at the moment but still wins states he has 6-7 point leads. And democrats are voting early in much higher rates than republicans, and at least one recent polls shows the turnout on election day is expected to be heavier for republicans because of this (democrats still vote in greater numbers overall).

So then we get an absolute nightmare scenario where Biden needs calls from Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and they show slight Trump leads on election night without early voting counted. What happens then? I can't imagine a remotely good outcome there.

So basically I'm rooting for Florida to come through for us just for one time. I don't like being in that position.

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Suprak the Stud posted...

So then we get an absolute nightmare scenario where Biden needs calls from Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and they show slight Trump leads on election night without early voting counted. What happens then? I can't imagine a remotely good outcome there.

Trump declares victory and launches a flurry of legal challenges to have absentee votes thrown out and he causes irreparable damage to the integrity of the election by instilling his 30% base with the belief that no other outcome is legitimate and the divide in the country probably becomes unrepairable.

so like, a good chance the democratic experiment of government in america is dealt a fatal blow regardless of outcome because the trust in the system will be completely shattered

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Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1316031426618327040?s=21

How big?

You heard him Mitch. Bring on the stimulus to make the stock market go up!

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Yeah, her job is to make decisions based on the law. Congress's job is to make and change laws. Judge Barrett was too polite, but the answer to the question of "are you saying it is our job to write good laws?" is absolutely, yes it is the Senate's job to write good laws. Not the Supreme Court's.

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xp1337 posted...

Trump declares victory and launches a flurry of legal challenges to have absentee votes thrown out and he causes irreparable damage to the integrity of the election by instilling his 30% base with the belief that no other outcome is legitimate and the divide in the country probably becomes unrepairable.

so like, a good chance the democratic experiment of government in america is dealt a fatal blow regardless of outcome because the trust in the system will be completely shattered

That is almost exactly what I'm envisioning as well.

And I think there is somewhere between a 1/4 and 1/3 chance it happens.

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Nanis23 posted...

God damn it Trump, stop doing things I can't defend

oh great, now he's just gonna do a rally in blackface tomorrow

Paratroopa1 posted...

oh great, now he's just gonna do a rally in blackface tomorrow

hilarious

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https://www.pghcitypaper.com/pittsburgh/pittsburgh-area-mail-carrier-under-investigation-is-apparent-qanon-conspiracy-theorist/Content

Something something both sides

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So the New York Post published emails supposedly from Hunter Biden, provided by literally Rudy fucking Giuliani, who supposedly got them from a computer repair guy who claimed that Hunter had never picked up his computer (and then this guy... just went through his personal data and gave it to Rudy)?

Anyway, the emails in the piece don't even show the corruption the authors imply, and the piece repeats Shokin's lie that he was investigating Burisma at the time he was fired. They really fucking want their sequel to the Comey letter.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

So the New York Post published emails supposedly from Hunter Biden, provided by literally Rudy fucking Giuliani, who supposedly got them from a computer repair guy who claimed that Hunter had never picked up his computer (and then this guy... just went through his personal data and gave it to Rudy)?

...is this how pompeo "found" clinton's emails too!?!?!

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I thought Hilary buried 10,000 emails in a field near her house, but she didn't bury them deep enough so someone found them and dug them up. :shrug:

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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1316194625405751296

trump comin' back for that seniors vote

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https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1316235966106030080?s=21
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https://twitter.com/ChrisMegerian/status/1316366898297221122

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Maybe we should just ask Chris Pratt, wouldn't he know who shot bin Laden?

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The Hunter Biden story is so absurd I think it might just disprove Truth is stranger than fiction.

They really want a repeat of the email scandal SOOOOOO badly. Luckily they're too incompetent to actually pull it off, and the only people who'll fall for this idiocy are the people who were already voting for Donald Trump.

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LinkMarioSamus posted...

Maybe we should just ask Chris Pratt, wouldn't he know who shot bin Laden?

The Rock knew first
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Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1316235966106030080?s=21

if you wanna see the conspiracy theory Trump retweeted it gets even worse

https://twitter.com/UrbanAchievr/status/1316122210835353603

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Dancedreamer posted...

and the only people who'll fall for this idiocy are the people who were already voting for Donald Trump.

plus all of the politics-as-a-game reporters

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GuessMyUserName posted...

if you wanna see the conspiracy theory Trump retweeted it gets even worse

https://twitter.com/UrbanAchievr/status/1316122210835353603

I read this as "political fanfiction" and honesty I think that's a more accurate description

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https://twitter.com/kevinmkruse/status/1316362290917265408?s=21
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More good explanations on how conservatives think

https://tinyurl.com/y4utf8g2

It's pretty simple.

Empathy is an evolved trait to facilitate social cohesion in a tribe and make sure other members of the tribe survive, since their survival increases your genetic success. So pretty much all humans, minus those with ASPD, have empathy for other humans they view as part of their tribe.

The issue is how a person internally views their tribe and what other humans are part of it. There are many people with what could even be considered an overdeveloped sense of empathy in that they view the human species in totality as "their tribe". Then there are people who at the very least view their own countrymen as their tribe.

Then there are people who only view their race as their tribe, or their gender as their tribe, or specifically their own friends and family and coworkers as their tribe. They have a complete capacity for empathy, but their brain only applies it to humans that they view as their allies. This is tribalism, and it's the root cause of bigotry and spite the world over.

Many conservatives only view other conservatives as part of their tribe, or even more narrowly the actually bigoted ones only view other conservatives of their particular "group" as part of their tribe (e.g., a racist white conservative won't view black conservatives as anything other than tools; a Christian conservative won't view Muslim conservatives as anything other than tools; etc.).

As soon as it's their tribe being affected, then they care. Then they care all too much. But if the "liberals" suffer, they're good. Those guys are an enemy tribe. If the racial minorities suffer, enemy tribe. If the other religious people suffer, enemy tribe. If the "urban people" suffer, enemy tribe. If people from other countries suffer, enemy tribe. And so on and so on.

It's also conspicuously why many conservatives who have a close relative come out of the closet are suddenly now pro-gay. The tribalism short-circuits, and they either need to determine whether the family member is no longer their tribe, or gay people are their tribe. Some go the first way and disown their kid or whatnot. Some have an astounding change of heart where gay people aren't an issue anymore because now they know "one of the good ones" and "that's family".

It all comes down to tribalism. Progressives are much more likely to view people outside of their arbitrary characteristics as part of their tribe. They're concerned with people they've never met, they see or hear of those peoples' suffering, and they want those people to not suffer. Conservatives, not so much. A progressive cares a whole lot that children are being held in cages. A conservative cares a whole lot if their children are being held in cages. They both have empathy, but the conservative's empathy is far more restrictive and narrowly applied.

It's not that all conservatives are sociopaths. They aren't. But they are tribalists, almost uniformly. And the actual sociopaths who message to them abuse that fact to keep them obsessed with petty divisions in order to trick them into voting for rampant corporatist exploitation. Full-blown false consciousness tactics, through and through.

None of these are earthshattering revelations, but people here seem routinely confused about why Republicans are the way they are, so I'll keep posting them as I find them

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