Board 8 > Coronavirus Topic 9

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/coronavirus-pandemic-may-not-have-started-in-china-experts-say-20200706-p5599t.html

Maybe not from China? Ehhh.

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Nick Cordero has died from covid-19.

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Even after googling, I still dunno who that is <_<

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Me either, but it was front page CNN. A 41 year old Broadway actor.

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https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1279862637510242305

Funny how when it comes to countries, everyone just uncritically accepts that the only reason the US might be having more cases than other countries is horrible management and a selfish populace who is too stupid and selfish to take basic precautions. No other explanation is possible.

Wonder if that logic applies here?

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i'd say horrible management is the main reason the US is having more cases.

people in general are stupid and selfish. that's not exclusive to the US at all.

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Corrik7 posted...

Me either, but it was front page CNN. A 41 year old Broadway actor.

He was focused on because his battle with the disease was relayed by his wife through video updates. There was also the factor of him being perfectly healthy prior to contracting it. But yeah, he received ECMO (extracorporeal membrane oxygenation) which caused clots in his right leg, consequently needing amputation. He eventually recovered enough to come off ECMO but was still in a coma for a while longer. He regained consciousness sometime in May. Then a week ago it was announced that his lungs were basically destroyed and he needed a double transplant.

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SmartMuffin posted...

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1279862637510242305

Funny how when it comes to countries, everyone just uncritically accepts that the only reason the US might be having more cases than other countries is horrible management and a selfish populace who is too stupid and selfish to take basic precautions. No other explanation is possible.

Wonder if that logic applies here?

https://www.epi.org/blog/black-and-hispanic-workers-are-much-less-likely-to-be-able-to-work-from-home/

hard to work from home and self quarantine with that. and before you counter with it being a decision they can make, well, for a lot of people they can't just not work

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Racial_wage_gap_in_the_United_States

well there's my monthly post in the politics topic
and i wasted it on replying to smartmuffin =(

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Aecioo posted...

https://www.epi.org/blog/black-and-hispanic-workers-are-much-less-likely-to-be-able-to-work-from-home/

hard to work from home and self quarantine with that. and before you counter with it being a decision they can make, well, for a lot of people they can't just not work

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Racial_wage_gap_in_the_United_States

well there's my monthly post in the politics topic
and i wasted it on replying to smartmuffin =(

Yeah, African-americans and latin-americans get it more readily due to lower income households. Projects with shared ventilation is bad. They are less likely to follow the news and congregate. Also, can't just not work or work from home as an option.

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Yeah, poor people being more likely to get sick and die isn't a mind-blowing revelation, even before COVID-19.

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If the explanation is poverty, why are so many nations that are abysmally and shockingly poor, compared to the US, doing so much better?

India's numbers are a couple orders of magnitude better than ours. Is it because they have better living conditions? Less poverty? Better jobs? More working from home?

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SmartMuffin posted...

If the explanation is poverty, why are so many nations that are abysmally and shockingly poor, compared to the US, doing so much better?

India's numbers are a couple orders of magnitude better than ours. Is it because they have better living conditions? Less poverty? Better jobs? More working from home?

Because I personally know two people with family in India...

It's because their government actually reacted immediately and shut down transportation going in and out of their country.

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Fewer people with the disease for one thing. India for example didn't start spiking until recently and could very well overtake the United States once this is all done with. The United States was unlucky and handled the situation poorly, that's sometimes how life is.

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It's because their government actually reacted immediately and shut down transportation going in and out of their country.

Isolationism does seem to work, so long as you're willing to commit to doing it indefinitely.

Of course the disease isn't nearly deadly enough to make "no more international travel" look like an acceptable cost.

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SmartMuffin posted...

If the explanation is poverty, why are so many nations that are abysmally and shockingly poor, compared to the US, doing so much better?

India's numbers are a couple orders of magnitude better than ours. Is it because they have better living conditions? Less poverty? Better jobs? More working from home?

They test less than us.

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Yeah, comparing other countries is more difficult because everyone measures tests differently. Heck even in different places within the country things are measured differently.

For my area, the stat I look at is hospital capacity.

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https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/06/health/spain-coronavirus-antibody-study-lancet-intl/index.html

Okay this is CNN so I want to unpack from the actual article and just focus on the numbers.

5% of the population has antibodies. Let's start there.

Spain's population is like 47-50 million.

Spain has approximately 250k confirmed cases.

For 5% of their population to have antibodies... It means that 2.35 million people in Spain have had the virus.

Now, we also have another study that says antibody presence to tests fades quickly but that the immunity remains achieved within tcells regardless of antibodies showing.

Thus, there may be even MORE than this amount that have had the virus.

So 2.35 million+ and 250k confirmed cases. That means only 10.6% of the cases were confirmed that existed (at most). Thus for every confirmed case likely another 9 went undiagnosed.

At least.

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https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1280254674449436672

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i could totally see prageru making that argument

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SmartMuffin posted...

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1280254674449436672

I don't know who that is, but I'm hoping he's making a correlation =/= causation joke to bait dumb people.

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charmander6000 posted...

I don't know who that is, but I'm hoping he's making a correlation =/= causation joke to bait dumb people.

Former NYT reporter who has decided to hitch a ride to fame by adding a veneer of respectability to COVID denialism

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Corrik7 posted...

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/06/health/spain-coronavirus-antibody-study-lancet-intl/index.html

Okay this is CNN so I want to unpack from the actual article and just focus on the numbers.

5% of the population has antibodies. Let's start there.

Spain's population is like 47-50 million.

Spain has approximately 250k confirmed cases.

For 5% of their population to have antibodies... It means that 2.35 million people in Spain have had the virus.

Now, we also have another study that says antibody presence to tests fades quickly but that the immunity remains achieved within tcells regardless of antibodies showing.

Thus, there may be even MORE than this amount that have had the virus.

So 2.35 million+ and 250k confirmed cases. That means only 10.6% of the cases were confirmed that existed (at most). Thus for every confirmed case likely another 9 went undiagnosed.

At least.

I mean Spain has around a 10% mortality rate so it's quite clear they are either only testing vulnerable people or people who are quite sick. The adjustment puts the mortality rate at just under 1% which is more in line with the 0.3%-1% death rate that's been estimated...

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charmander6000 posted...

I mean Spain has around a 10% mortality rate so it's quite clear they are either only testing vulnerable people or people who are quite sick. The adjustment puts the mortality rate at just under 1% which is more in line with the 0.3%-1% death rate that's been estimated...

Estimate is pretty much at .4% to .65% now I believe. Again, this is an at least number because again Antibodies for tests disappear relatively quickly but immunity remains. Though of course this varies greatly by your age range itself.

For example, we know the US is catching more cases than Spain caught, but if not, we would be around 10%+ infected right now and not just about 1%. Herd immunity and natural social distancing would be very possible.

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Keisha Lance-Bottoms has tested positive for the virus.
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And, like the vast majority of people, she is completely asymptomatic and would have never even known she had it if she wasn't an elite with privileged access to testing.

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I'm convinced the number of people who are asymptomatic far outweighs those with symptoms. Or maybe that's already known?

Just speaking from when I had it and the number of people who would have been exposed to me before I knew I had it. Yet only one person showed symptoms and they were someone I interacted with for like 10 seconds from completely across the room so may not have even got it from me. Obviously I hoped I didn't pass it on to anyone but I'd bet that most of them were asymptomatic

ShatteredElysium posted...

I'm convinced the number of people who are asymptomatic far outweighs those with symptoms. Or maybe that's already known?

Just speaking from when I had it and the number of people who would have been exposed to me before I knew I had it. Yet only one person showed symptoms and they were someone I interacted with for like 10 seconds from completely across the room so may not have even got it from me. Obviously I hoped I didn't pass it on to anyone but I'd bet that most of them were asymptomatic

Afaik the chance of you giving covid to a given person over a single interaction is not super high. Recall that without mitigation it has an R0 of somewhere between 2 and 3, so thats the average number of people someone would be infecting; most of them would have been interacting with many more people than that. But thats still enough to cause the virus to grow out of control without mitigation.

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Trump says all schools need to open in the fall.

Desantis orders all k-12 schools open in August right after in Florida.

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August isn't even...

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Who the fuck elected the dumbass running Florida??

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To be fair, studies in multiple countries have said schools are low risk and the American Pediatrics recommends schools opening.

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Schools have pretty much been closed world wide.

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https://www.usnews.com/news/education-news/articles/2020-06-29/pediatric-group-calls-for-children-to-return-to-schools-despite-coronavirus

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-23/school-children-don-t-spread-coronavirus-french-study-shows

France

https://academic.oup.com/jpids/article/doi/10.1093/jpids/piaa070/5849922

America

https://www.ntvg.nl/artikelen/de-rol-van-kinderen-de-transmissie-van-sars-cov-2/volledig

Netherlands

https://journals.lww.com/pidj/Abstract/9000/The_Role_of_Children_in_the_Dynamics_of_Intra.96128.aspx

Israel


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https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/status/1280374566280445952

well holy fucking shit, look who finally found some balls

I swear this is the FIRST time I've seen him defend himself and his state against an attack from the left. Maybe his dumb ass has finally figured out that CNN is NOT his friend and is not giving him advice that is in his best interest...

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california has both way more inhabitants than texas and a way higher population density than texas so no shit they're getting hit harder.

really wish the anti-lockdown people would cherry picking statistics to make stupid gotcha arguments. "hey this island with a population of 10 had no lockdown and there were no covid cases at all! CHECKMATE LOCKDOWN COMMIES"

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california has both way more inhabitants than texas and a way higher population density than texas so no shit they're getting hit harder.

On a PER CAPITA BASIS California has almost twice as many deaths as Texas.

Texas has the 39th most deaths per capita of all 50 US states (meaning 38 states are worse, many by multiple factors). Literally every state with fewer deaths per capita than Texas is very small and/or heavily rural.

Check the data yourself:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

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Texas has less than 1/4 as many "deaths per capita" as the US average.

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Per Wikipedia, there are only 6 states in the US that have at least one city of over 1M residents. Here they are, along with their deaths per capita:

New York (1659)
California (163)
Illinois (571)
Arizona (249)
Texas (94)
Pennsylvania (532)

Among those states, you can easily see that Texas has far and away the best outcomes. It's not even close. But sure, keep insisting that Texas is the woefully mismanaged state with all the problems.

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Among the 10 states with fewer deaths per capita than Texas, the largest city in any of those states is Portland, OR. Texas has six cities larger than Portland. Two of the six are over 2x larger than Portland.

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SmartMuffin posted...

Per Wikipedia, there are only 6 states in the US that have at least one city of over 1M residents. Here they are, along with their deaths per capita:

New York (1659)
California (163)
Illinois (571)
Arizona (249)
Texas (94)
Pennsylvania (532)

Among those states, you can easily see that Texas has far and away the best outcomes. It's not even close. But sure, keep insisting that Texas is the woefully mismanaged state with all the problems.

From what I understand, PA and NY are so high because they ordered nursing homes to take covid-19 patients and wiped out a lot in nursing homes. I think like 90% of deaths in PA is from nursing homes. Which again they ordered the patients into, all while Levine was removing her grandmother from them for her safety


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Overheard a dumb old overweight asshole having a conversation at the park talking about how masks contribute to people needing to go on ventilators and everyone should just be taking 10 pills of vitamin C a day.

These people..

Bolsonaro tested positive for real this time.

I remember back sometime around late March when a big Brazilian media group claimed he tested positive and then it was later rescinded. I think it was because of a contaminated initial test.

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Governor just ordered that specific counties have to wear masks in all indoors public places, and outdoors when you have to be in close contact with people. My county isnt on the list but it might be soon, or the city council might pass something to require it.

At work they finally instituted a mask policy for customers, but theres not really any enforcement. Putting the signs up for it did seem to increase usage though, before it was probably less than 25% and now its probably 90%, but about a third of those people arent wearing it correctly over their nose and mouth.

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Esuriat posted...

Bolsonaro tested positive for real this time.

I remember back sometime around late March when a big Brazilian media group claimed he tested positive and then it was later rescinded. I think it was because of a contaminated initial test.

He said in an interview he thought he had already gotten it.

Dude is crazy and real dangerous.

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He's claiming to be treated with HCQ too, so that'll be "lovely" seeing him claim it saved his life. Especially if the truth is an actual efficacious treatment like convalescent plasma is what really pulls him through.

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wait i thought bolsonaro couldn't get it because he's so healthy

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SmartMuffin posted...

Per Wikipedia, there are only 6 states in the US that have at least one city of over 1M residents. Here they are, along with their deaths per capita:

New York (1659)
California (163)
Illinois (571)
Arizona (249)
Texas (94)
Pennsylvania (532)

Among those states, you can easily see that Texas has far and away the best outcomes. It's not even close. But sure, keep insisting that Texas is the woefully mismanaged state with all the problems.

I think the most important metric here is time from first known case of community transmission (plus some fudge factor for "purposefully not testing to make it seem it's all fine") to time to first government action. Once you do some funny math by assuming a 3 day doubling = double the number of cases, is Texas still impressive?

California had the fastest response yes, but I would guess that its initial load would be much much much higher than Texas due to the largish Asian population (I haven't looked this up, if Texas has a comparable population then I'm just flat out wrong about this)

Lol our governor is so dumb. It's kinda funny. Spike in cases in Allegheny county so he shuts down bars and restaurants in Allegheny county... Which of course people who still wanna go to them will just go to different counties then that are not shut down. So now he is gonna 2 weeks shut down 3 surrounding countries. It's like he doesn't understand human behavior at all lol.

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Yeah, same thing happened in Italy back in March. They closed a small area so people went to other areas, bringing the disease with them.

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Corrik7 posted...

Lol our governor is so dumb. It's kinda funny. Spike in cases in Allegheny county so he shuts down bars and restaurants in Allegheny county... Which of course people who still wanna go to them will just go to different counties then that are not shut down. So now he is gonna 2 weeks shut down 3 surrounding countries. It's like he doesn't understand human behavior at all lol.

All of my friends and family in Allegheny County are saying this exact same thing. It's fucking ridiculous


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