Board 8 > NFL Conference Championship Discussion Topic

(+) Yeah! (+)

Packers going for 2 before made perfect sense. Taking the PAT last time was dumb though.

Well, yeah, at 19-34 you go for 2. I'm not so sure at 13-34 though.

Edit: That said, if there's an analytics argument saying you go for 2 there I'll retract my objection. I think I'd still probably disagree personally but I haven't gamed it out that much obviously. In my mind, at 13-34 you're facing a deficit of 21. No matter what you do it's a 3-possession game. The only benefit to making it 19 over 20 that I see is the FG argument. But I'm also working under the assumption that looking at the game so far you're probably giving up another scoring drive and for the purposes of assuming you have a shot it has to be a FG in which case if you fail the conversion the FG puts you at 24 and 3 2-pt conversions with no margin for error is an awful spot to be. Obviously 23 is bad too but you can pass on one of those attempts and hope to maintain a bit more game pressure on the 49ers.

I assume the analytics argument is more along the lines of "you need those conversions at some point so try early and figure out the situation asap" but I wouldn't discount the value of game pressure and keeping that info hidden from the opponent a bit longer.

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The idea is you need to score a bunch in a short time. So making the 2 down 13-34 lets you go for 2 twice and score a FG to tie, and you're still afforded the opportunity to both make up for the miss and potentially even account for a FG down the line with later 2-pointers.

Once you give up on going for 2 later though, it makes very little sense to have gone for 2 the first time as you won't be able to recover from the other team scoring a FG.

Ah, I see my edit was late to that response but yeah.

I see your point and maybe the analytics bear it out but I think personally I kick the PAT at 13 and see what happens. I think we both at least agree that the PAT at 19 was super dumb though because you're right, if you commit to that strategy at 13 you gotta stay with it.

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This loss doesnt hurt because I never thought they had a chance to win at any point going into this game.

Hope lost. Despair won

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FFDragon posted...

if KC > SF happens I still win at least $350

Letsa go

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Let's go Jimmy G

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MZero11 posted...

Let's go Jimmy G

Guy has a 3 week rest before the super bowl

linid0t posted...

Guy has a 3 week rest before the super bowl

That didn't go so well for Lamar

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Or Tannehill

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Leonhart4 posted...

Aw yeah Dustin Colquitt

From the University of Tennessee, which has produced two Colquitt punters in the NFL.

I'll never forget the colquitt bowl.

The Broncos chiefs game that was just a giant punting battle starring the two brothers.

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I think they're actually cousins, not brothers!

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Leonhart4 posted...

I think they're actually cousins, not brothers!

Wikipedia is telling me brothers

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Oh, I guess they are. They did have a cousin who punted at Clemson. I guess that's who I was confusing them with!

But they can both have Super Bowl rings if the Chiefs win.

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Andy reid on how he celebrated the win:
"I had a cheeseburger and went to bed"
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It's nice to be able to watch a Super Bowl and not be stressed about winning or losing

life is hard as a patriots fan ya know

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hopefully it's about to get a lot harder if the rest of us are lucky

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Eli Manning planning to hold a press conference to announce his retirement

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LeonhartFour posted...

Eli Manning planning to hold a press conference to announce his retirement

Godspeed you goofy dragon slayer

#FirstBallotHOF

I still think that whether or not Eli gets into the HOF proper he 100% deserves a statue outside of it doing the Heisman pose to keep Brady out.

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Not sure he'll be first ballot, but there's no way a 2-time SB MVP doesn't make it

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Eli definitely will get in the Hall of Fame. The argument has always been more whether he should than if he will.

Rivers you have a better argument for will and should

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End of an era.

Just remember, you can't spell Elisha Manning without 'meh'.

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just like you can't spell Brady without 'bad'

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Can't spell it without rad either!

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Or drab
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Hypothetical:

Some QB wins 2 Super Bowls and 2 Super Bowl MVPs in his first two years

Never plays again

Is he a HoFer?
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Jakyl25 posted...

Hypothetical:

Some QB wins 2 Super Bowls and 2 Super Bowl MVPs in his first two years

Never plays again

Is he a HoFer?

only if one of those wins was against an undefeated team

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Nelson_Mandela posted...

Not sure he'll be first ballot, but there's no way a 2-time SB MVP doesn't make it

I feel like he will be unless like, Brees and Brady retire this year too

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Jakyl25 posted...

Hypothetical:

Some QB wins 2 Super Bowls and 2 Super Bowl MVPs in his first two years

Never plays again

Is he a HoFer?

No.

Eli also has many other boxes ticked such as stats, iron man streak, and whether or not people agree - some superbowl victories carry more weight than others.

18 wins and one Giant upset.

linid0t posted...

No.

Eli also has many other boxes ticked such as stats, iron man streak, and whether or not people agree - some superbowl victories carry more weight than others.

18 wins and one Giant upset.

3 time INT champ

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Jakyl25 posted...

Hypothetical:

Some QB wins 2 Super Bowls and 2 Super Bowl MVPs in his first two years

Never plays again

Is he a HoFer?

Are you asking if a QB wins a ring in 100% of their seasons? Of course

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I definitely would not agree with that unless they had some crazy good stats in those two years. Like if they were mediocre and carried to back-to-back championships by their defense/running game and just happened to win Super Bowl MVP (which many times isn't indicative of much other than that a QB's team won and there was no clear other favorite to win it) twice, it would be pretty obvious they don't belong in.

Eli having two Super Bowl MVPs is less impressive when you realize he wasn't actually even good in the first win, and it's not like it could be awarded to the collective unit of their defense.

would Mahomes be a HoF if he retires after dominating the Super Bowl and basically his first two seasons

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If Mahomes was setting a bunch of statistical records and dominating back-to-back Super Bowls, I'd probably say yes. I think the bar could be lowered a bit though if he was doing it without the amazing weapons he has on offense, not including himself.

I think it depends a lot on why someone retires. I think a career ending injury would be more sympathetic to voters than just walking away at that age.
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Jakyl25 posted...

Hypothetical:

Some QB wins 2 Super Bowls and 2 Super Bowl MVPs in his first two years

Never plays again

Is he a HoFer?

Depends on why he never played again tbh. Untimely death? In. Found guilty of murder? No way

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If Nick Foles wins another SB with any team (as the starter of course) does he get in?

What about Superbowl MVP Joe Flacco, who had probably the best postseason of a QB ever but is otherwise Joe Flacco.

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FFDragon posted...

What about Superbowl MVP Joe Flacco, who had probably the best postseason of a QB ever but is otherwise Joe Flacco.

1 Super Bowl ain't 2

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Eli has stats but they aren't all good ones. Turnovers were a real problem. He was never a top tier qb. Honestly, without SBs he goes in the "hall of very good" but the SBs push him over the edge. Rightfully or otherwise.
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It's not like Favre's interception and fumble records really hurt him, and he only won one Super Bowl and wasn't even the MVP.
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Yeah, but Favre mostly played during a time where high turnover rates weren't frowned upon like they are now. Plus, he has three MVP awards. You can't ever say that Eli was one of the top 5 QBs in the league at any point during his career (or he was borderline). You could make the argument that Favre was many times.

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Yes but favre also won tons of accolades that eli did not.
7 more pro bowls
3 MVPs
1 OPoY
4 passing TDs lead
2 passing yards lead

I must admit after looking over their stats that there are some that are remarkably similar that I didn't realize, so I get the argument. Perhaps eli's stats on his own without the superbowls would still be enough. But he's still not quite on favre's level.
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theawesomestevr posted...

If Mahomes was setting a bunch of statistical records and dominating back-to-back Super Bowls, I'd probably say yes. I think the bar could be lowered a bit though if he was doing it without the amazing weapons he has on offense, not including himself.

I think it's a disservice to Mahomes's skill set to try to diminish his accomplishments by saying he has amazing talent. The dude does things literally no one else can do. He brought his team back from 24-0 in one quarter. If Alex Smith is still the QB and everything else is the same, KC doesn't win that game. Most QBs don't win that game.

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It's not as if the weapons he has outside of kelce are anything special. Hill is a burner so people like to point at him because he makes big grabs, but so does desean jackson. Big whoop. He's fine as a #1 WR but hardly top tier. They plug and play ho-hum RBs. The weapons don't make mahomes, mahomes makes the weapons.
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Yeah, it's not like Hill is the first really fast guy to play at WR before.

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davidponte posted...

Rivers is permanently moving to Florida and he's taking his 15 kids with him.

Brady to the Chargers confirmed.

Rivers to Jacksonville confirmed.

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Corrik7 posted...

Rivers to Jacksonville confirmed.

Foles to Tampa Bay