Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1316

(+) Yeah! (+)

Jman_maximum posted...

no one had any issues with RE4 when it came out

They existed, from what I remember, but yeah, it's a small group of people.

Still annoying to see them, though >_>
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Creativename, Lopen, you two are probably my favorite posters here as far as creating interesting, insightful, analysis, and I'm not sure that you actually disagree so much with each other so much as you are talking past each other. This argument has gone in circles for so long that I can't remember who was arguing what in the past anymore, and I kind of feel some people may have been on different sides of the same argument at different points in the past 13 years.

Anyway, I'm glad yesterday's match gave us some resolution.

1. Samus > Mario indirectly right now.
2. Mario > Samus directly right now.
3. Samus > Mario directly is possible.

I think a lot of people have denied either 1 or 3 over the last 13 years, or claimed they are inconsistent with 2. That should settle all the annoying discussion.
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Also, now that I think about it, maybe SFF in general was bigger in 2004 than now. Look at Link/Ganondorf, Link/Yoshi, Link/Megaman, Crono/Magus, etc. Maybe SFF has just gotten weaker in general over the last 13 years, and now Mario cannot pull off half as much SFF as he could get on Samus in 2005. That actually lines up pretty well with Link's SFF power against Ganondorf and Pikachu too.
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At least Lopen used logic, so more.
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Ulti, you were fine when defending your Mario pick before the match. You've been super annoying about it ever since the match, proclaiming that it was obvious and never articulating an argument with more substance than "lol x-stats."
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UltimaterializerX posted...

Guys, level with me. When I was defending my Mario pick was I more or less annoying than Lopen is being?

Because if I was even close I am genuinely sorry.

Even at my worst I can't touch you in terms of being annoying you've nothing to fear your crown is very safe,
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For the rematches, Mega Man looks worse and Bowser looks better in the pictures. Yet Mega Man is doing better and Bowser's doing about the same as last time. That's more evidence that popular characters aren't that pic-sensitive, as long as it's not something completely different like Sprite Snake.

So far the vote totals are a lot lower than MM/Pika and Crono/Bowser part 1. The original matches had 8308 votes at 21:35, while today's matches have 7496 votes at the same point in time. I suppose it does make sense that Mega Man fans know for a fact that MM can swing this match the other way, while Pikachu fans are perhaps saying... "Eh, Pikachu already won before. I don't care that much if he wins again".
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red sox 777 posted...

1. Samus > Mario indirectly right now.
2. Mario > Samus directly right now.
3. Samus > Mario directly is possible.

Also I will say that I've never said 3. I think Samus > Mario in 04 was not possible. There's a difference. And it mostly goes down to "a 60-40 isn't flipping in one year without damn good reason beyond it making the numbers look nicer"

In general though only Ulti has ever denied 3. He gives the Mario camp a bad name. I don't think most of us have denied that.

A lot of people have denied Mario > Samus directly was possible when Samus seemed stronger indirectly which we've seen pretty conclusively is wrong now. So to me that Mario/Samus match was a victory for Mario/Samus still being an easy Mario win even in 04 when he was weaker.

Like I just want people to admit they made a bad pick. Saying "nah the logic was there Mario just went up and screwed us" is such a copout, especially off the heels of a match where an indirectly weaker Mario won.

I make mistakes all the time in these things. Saying you made a bad pick isn't hard!
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Haste_2 posted...

For the rematches, Mega Man looks worse and Bowser looks better in the pictures.

Disagree on both accounts.
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Haste_2 posted...

So far the vote totals are a lot lower than MM/Pika and Crono/Bowser part 1.

Also this is incorrect - we're currently tracking 250 votes ahead of the original set of matches.
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Haste_2 posted...

For the rematches, Mega Man looks worse and Bowser looks better in the pictures. Yet Mega Man is doing better and Bowser's doing about the same as last time. That's more evidence that popular characters aren't that pic-sensitive, as long as it's not something completely different like Sprite Snake.

There's also some rationale that maybe the characters may not be as picture sensitive as they used to be with lower votals with a greater percentage of people really familiar with these characters.

Snake's ugly ass green NES spirte may be less potent now than it would be in 2007.
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Snake's ugly ass green sprite would have absolutely mattered against someone like Pikachu. Maybe not as much as it did in the past, but yeah. It's just he was against another character who is likely hurt by sprites as well.
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Haste_2 posted...

So far the vote totals are a lot lower than MM/Pika and Crono/Bowser part 1.

The original matches both happened on separate days, so you have to make sure you're comparing the vote totals from today's matches to those of their original matches.
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KamikazePotato posted...

Snake's ugly ass green sprite would have absolutely mattered against someone like Pikachu. Maybe not as much as it did in the past, but yeah. It's just he was against another character who is likely hurt by sprites as well.

Yeah, he was definitely fortunate to draw Auron and his Record Keeper sprite.
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Frog vs. Magus... who's stronger between the two of them?

Lopen posted...

creativename posted...

I do not have any confidence in trying to predict a 2K4 match between these two, but clearly at this point people should be able to concede a 2K4 Samus victory is no longer something you can dismiss out of hand.

Sure you do because there's no reason to expect any matchup to flip over 10% from year to year without a significant release or factor specific to one of the characters to point to.

Let it be known I predicted this meeting within 1% too, if we're keeping score.

Sorry Lopen, but I've got to side with creative here. Mario went from 47% on Crono to 54% between 2004 and 2005. That's a 7% swing without SFF. Add in SFF and I think a 10% swing is possible. Samus beating Mario in 2004 seems very plausible, if you assume Samus didn't gain much between '04 and '05.

I do agree, however, that Samus could have been stronger than Mario in 2005 (more specifically, equal to what her 2006 match against Snake suggested). Certain matches you pointed out make your theory compelling.
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Haste_2 posted...

For the rematches, Mega Man looks worse and Bowser looks better in the pictures. Yet Mega Man is doing better and Bowser's doing about the same as last time. That's more evidence that popular characters aren't that pic-sensitive, as long as it's not something completely different like Sprite Snake.

For the Samus/Tifa rematch, I'd be very interested to see Samus with a ZSS picture to give us a TJF match. It would also help us determine how much ZSS would hurt Samus. I wouldn't expect ZSS to hurt Samus as badly as we saw in 2006, because the ZSS design was revealed not too long before that match happened, so very few voters were familiar with the ZSS design.
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ZSS doesnt hurt samus as much as 2006. No way

Ill tell you how you can make Samus super weak

https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--uNSI8_2w--/c_scale,f_auto,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/18j3vm5r2nx8xjpg.jpg

Give her that picture and Tifa could beat her. No joke.
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Yuri_LowelI posted...

https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--uNSI8_2w--/c_scale,f_auto,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/18j3vm5r2nx8xjpg.jpg

who the fuck is this

you're telling me this is samus????
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snake_5036 posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--uNSI8_2w--/c_scale,f_auto,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/18j3vm5r2nx8xjpg.jpg

who the fuck is this

you're telling me this is samus????

Errr yeah. Her short hair cut a younger samus from the masterpiece that is Metroid Other M
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LusterSoldier posted...

creativename posted...

But dont the results so far indicate the registered users are more hardcore Nintendo fans?

I thought non-Nintendo characters did better with anonymous voters outside of rallies, especially Square characters. Was I getting the wrong impression?

Anonymous voters do tend to favor non-Nintendo characters more than Nintendo characters, but it was quite interesting that they seemed to favor Samus in a match featuring 2 Nintendo characters.

The registereds being bigger Nintendo fans and favoring Mario is exactly in line with why Mario rSFFs though.

Lopen posted...

I am happy to move on I just don't like people saying calling Mario > Samus by a lot was luck that depended upon Mario boosting when we literally just had a match that proved rSFF exists.

Like thinking Samus got SFFed less in the runback is not weird. It's something I expected, even, given how SFF matches have been going this contest. Spinning that as a point in favor of Samus/Mario being debatable in 04 is just like, what?

Are you strawmanning? At what point did I say Mario wouldnt rSFF her pre 2K5? Even before the rematch I thought I made it clear Id expect him to have rSFFed her back then. The argument was about magnitude.

I have made my claims explicit repeatedly. That Mario in 2K4 would not break 55%. I was firm on this even before the rematch. And that one can no longer with credibility say Mario beating Samus is a 100% lock, which I am only saying after this result.

I think these should be completely non-controversial claims. I believe these are extremely weak claims. I simply cannot see how these should be controversial claims.

Predicting Mario to win with 60% was *partially* luck if your reasoning had nothing to do with Mario rising substantially in relative strength to Samus. Not even a question. I am obviously not saying picking Mario to win via rSFF was luck.

So do you think if Mario got 60% here, that would have somehow helped *my* position? Obviously not. The better Samus did here, the more one can say SFF is wonky. The way you are looking at this match is just bizarre.

At any rate, I think both of us and everybody else would be better off if we let this irritating discussion die. This is a waste of time for all involved.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

ZSS doesnt hurt samus as much as 2006. No way

Ill tell you how you can make Samus super weak

https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--uNSI8_2w--/c_scale,f_auto,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/18j3vm5r2nx8xjpg.jpg

Give her that picture and Tifa could beat her. No joke.

I think ZSS wouldnt even matter anymore. People know it by now; back then it was the fuck is this. Especially as it has cartoony sexiness, which seems to be big on this site now.

That pic looks nothing like Samus though. And isnt sexy to boot.

So theres a rumour going around that Metroid Prime Trilogy will be announced for Switch on the Game awards show Thursday

I mean......if True. I will go Ballistic. 'm not that ethusiastic for HD remasters but a Prime Trilogy on Switch would be fucking awesome.
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creativename posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

ZSS doesnt hurt samus as much as 2006. No way

Ill tell you how you can make Samus super weak

https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--uNSI8_2w--/c_scale,f_auto,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/18j3vm5r2nx8xjpg.jpg

Give her that picture and Tifa could beat her. No joke.

I think ZSS wouldnt even matter anymore. People know it by now; back then it was the fuck is this. Especially as it has cartoony sexiness, which seems to be big on this site now.

That pic looks nothing like Samus though. And isnt sexy to boot.

It doesn't need to look like Samus

Officially it is Samus and Allen wouldn't be breaking any rules by Using that picture. Obviously it would be a Pic Sabotage of epic proportions but Its still Samus in her Teens as a trainee Soldier
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I'd buy Prime Trilogy again if they restore the vanilla versions of Prime 1 and 2 instead of the butchered, no SB'ing versions on Wii/Wii U. Otherwise I'll probably skip them. Those games still look amazing on my HDTV even at 480p. It's wizardry >_>
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snake_5036 posted...

I'd buy Prime Trilogy again if they restore the vanilla versions of Prime 1 and 2 instead of the butchered, no SB'ing versions on Wii/Wii U. Otherwise I'll probably skip them. Those games still look amazing on my HDTV even at 480p. It's wizardry >_>

I'm not bothered by all the glitches and stuff tbh but Yeah games still look good today.

Primes Level Design is still better than most games Today. Absolute Masterpiece that game is. And no I'm not being sarcastic this time.
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Maybe if they released Switch ports, I might finally beat them.
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Yuri_LowelI posted...

creativename posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

ZSS doesnt hurt samus as much as 2006. No way

Ill tell you how you can make Samus super weak

https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--uNSI8_2w--/c_scale,f_auto,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/18j3vm5r2nx8xjpg.jpg

Give her that picture and Tifa could beat her. No joke.

I think ZSS wouldnt even matter anymore. People know it by now; back then it was the fuck is this. Especially as it has cartoony sexiness, which seems to be big on this site now.

That pic looks nothing like Samus though. And isnt sexy to boot.

It doesn't need to look like Samus

Officially it is Samus and Allen wouldn't be breaking any rules by Using that picture. Obviously it would be a Pic Sabotage of epic proportions but Its still Samus in her Teens as a trainee Soldier

Other M is worst Samus by light years
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Keep in mind Lopen predicted Mario with 60% in the Oracle after seeing Mario and Samus in action for 3 rounds in 2005. The Nintendo Boost was already clear by that point.
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Mario/Zero was the big match that told me he might have a chance, kind of like Cloud/Sonic was the first time we all started thinking he could actually beat Link.
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Haste_2 posted...

Sorry Lopen, but I've got to side with creative here. Mario went from 47% on Crono to 54% between 2004 and 2005. That's a 7% swing without SFF. Add in SFF and I think a 10% swing is possible. Samus beating Mario in 2004 seems very plausible, if you assume Samus didn't gain much between '04 and '05.

I think that's a big if, is the main thing. You have to completely ignore Kirby and Ganondorf and then arbitrarily have Samus boost in 06 after everyone else boosted in 05 to make her clowning the men's half in 06 make sense. I do agree if you could trace a root to Mario series specifically like a big Mario game release, and discard Kirby and Ganondorf looking better, yeah, a 10% swing becomes less weird to stomach because double dipping would possibly make some sense, but even then... I would say it gets more and more difficult to successfully make a vote swing the further off you gotta go. It's not "only 3 more percent" it's 3 percent on top of the already almost never seen 7 percent. It's also more impressive to make a percentage swing from a lower starting percentage as your reference point. Like going from 40 to 50 is a more impressive than going from 45 to 55, even if they're both shifting the total by 10%. 40 to 50 is a 25% growth of your vote share while 45 to 55 is about 22%.

Throw all this together and yeah it stretches the limits of plausibility to the point where I'm thinking it's more likely that Mario > Samus in 04 with 60% than Samus > Mario in 04 with any percent. If we're talking "these should be completely non-controversial claims" I would say Samus beating Mario should fit that bill more than Mario not being able to break 55% in 04. I think neither one is completely non-controversial, mind you.

creativename posted...

Predicting Mario to win with 60% was *partially* luck if your reasoning had nothing to do with Mario rising substantially in relative strength to Samus. Not even a question. I am obviously not saying picking Mario to win via rSFF was luck.

So do you think if Mario got 60% here, that would have somehow helped *my* position? Obviously not. The better Samus did here, the more one can say SFF is wonky. The way you are looking at this match is just bizarre.

Well I seem to be remembering the idea of rSFF being considered something that was debatable even as recently as this year (Bowser vs Kirby for example I feel like consensus among most people aside from me and like transience was that Bowser was just stronger than Kirby this year and that Kirby SFFed Phoenix). Maybe it wasn't you who said that, but the idea that rSFF was a widely accepted thing, particularly in 2005, is definitely not true.

And no I think the result that helps your position is if Samus would have just won outright with >= 52% as the stats indicated. Mario winning with 60% again probably helps Ultis caveman chest beating position.

Anyway yeah this is fairly stupid, but whatever. It's the stats topic. Most discussions in here are pretty stupid. Just lean into it I say. If we were sidetracking a more interesting discussion then sure but it's a couple of rematches. Whatever.
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I found an even worse Samus picture.

http://www.digitaleidoscope.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/metroid_kid-1024x576.jpg

this would sink her completely.
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You guys have to stop giving ammo to the saboteurs!
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Calintares posted...

I found an even worse Samus picture.

http://www.digitaleidoscope.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/metroid_kid-1024x576.jpg

this would sink her completely.

Please submit it.
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this would be a good opportunity to test just how much pic sabotage affects the outcome imhotbqh

seriously though don't do it
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most people won't recognize it, and the ones that do won't be best pleased to be reminded of that time Samus turned into a crying little girl instead of fighting Ridley.

I honestly don't know which of those two things would be worse for her.
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red sox 777 posted...

Ulti, you were fine when defending your Mario pick before the match. You've been super annoying about it ever since the match, proclaiming that it was obvious and never articulating an argument with more substance than "lol x-stats."

rSFF was definitely controversial in 2005. But after that most of us clearly believed Mario couldve rSFFed her pre-2K5, even if we (like me) think he simply SFFed her in 2K5.

I do not believe there is much reason to believe Bowser/Kirby was rSFF. This seems like confirmation bias to me. I mean its possible, I just dont see much reason to think its true. I wont deny its a possibility, but I dont buy it. Doesnt have anything to do with Mario/Samus, or anyone denying rSFF is a thing.

red sox 777 posted...

Keep in mind Lopen predicted Mario with 60% in the Oracle after seeing Mario and Samus in action for 3 rounds in 2005. The Nintendo Boost was already clear by that point.

Lopen said that he picked Mario with 60% without thinking Mario boosted relative to Samus.

Thats the entire argument. He isnt saying he was picking Mario to win, but adjusted him up after taking into account a Mario boost. Obviously Id have no problem with that, and would give him credit for it.

He is explicitly denying that a substantial boost by Mario was why he won with 60%.

He is explicitly claiming it was actually possible for Mario to get 60% in 2K4.

I am afraid I simply do not find any of this to be reasonable.

Calintares posted...

I found an even worse Samus picture.

http://www.digitaleidoscope.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/metroid_kid-1024x576.jpg

this would sink her completely.

Imagine Allen sitting in front of his computer with a poster hanging on the wall with Joker there and the text "some people just want to see the world burn" as he send Ulti a PM telling him to submit this
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UltimaterializerX posted...

INTERWEBUSER posted...

Calintares posted...

I found an even worse Samus picture.

http://www.digitaleidoscope.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/metroid_kid-1024x576.jpg

this would sink her completely.

Please submit it.

Done.

Well
This aged well
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UltimaterializerX posted...

INTERWEBUSER posted...

Calintares posted...

I found an even worse Samus picture.

http://www.digitaleidoscope.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/metroid_kid-1024x576.jpg

this would sink her completely.

Please submit it.

Done.

Thanks. I submitted a Wand of Gamelon Link pic the other day.
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UltimaterializerX posted...

In 2005 I do feel that match was obvious. Yesterday proved that moving forward it's no longer obvious.

It kills me to say this but Mario is not what he used to be. Zelda is going to kill him.

Say what?

If you want to see Samus sabotage, I could try submitting art of her from before Melee. She'd look terrible in this look, for instance.

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/metroid/images/a/a3/Samus_artwork_6.png/revision/latest/scale-to-width-down/332?cb=20180817232050
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UltimaterializerX posted...

INTERWEBUSER posted...

Calintares posted...

I found an even worse Samus picture.

http://www.digitaleidoscope.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/metroid_kid-1024x576.jpg

this would sink her completely.

Please submit it.

Done.

Can it be for the Zelda or Cloud match when it happens?

Wackiness can still happen overnight, but Mega Man should be close to feeling safe now.
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creativename posted...

UltimaterializerX posted...

In 2005 I do feel that match was obvious. Yesterday proved that moving forward it's no longer obvious.

It kills me to say this but Mario is not what he used to be. Zelda is going to kill him.

Say what?

creativename posted...

UltimaterializerX posted...

In 2005 I do feel that match was obvious. Yesterday proved that moving forward it's no longer obvious.

It kills me to say this but Mario is not what he used to be. Zelda is going to kill him.

Say what?

I hope so.

Im winning if it does...