Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1316

(+) Yeah! (+)

Mega Man is getting close to his peak lead against Pikachu the last time. I think we're done here.
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So is tonight the resurgence of the Noble Nine? Maybe Sonic will find his revenge on Zelda...
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After that start, Crono is almost a full percent ahead of where he was last time at this time. Megaman is about 1.5% ahead of where he was last time. Welcome back, Noble Nine.
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red sox 777 posted...

After that start, Crono is almost a full percent ahead of where he was last time at this time. Megaman is about 1.5% ahead of where he was last time. Welcome back, Noble Nine.

Until Zelda wrecks more homes in the next rounds.

It's possible people were just upset voting when the elim didn't matter and now it's SERIOUS. I kinda thought rematches would just favor the loser but maybe it's more complicated than that. Or maybe it's just noise.
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And Mega Man ended it with quite the thunderbolt.
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Yuri_LowelI posted...

I like Octopath. But it's not even in the same Stratosphere as CT. Octopath is a 8/10 game at best

IF they want to do those style of games then please put more effort into their storytelling. Gameplay is great though.

Octopath has at least as much effort in its storytelling as CT. I don't think anybody would care about CT's story if it came out for the first time today. (I say that as a big fan of CT.)

Also Chrono Trigger outsold FF4 significantly (2M to 1.4M) so lol at calling the former niche in comparison to the latter.
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TheOneAboveAll posted...

So is tonight the resurgence of the Noble Nine? Maybe Sonic will find his revenge on Zelda...

Dream on. He probably loses to Snake by more. Not that it matters since Snake is a N9 himslf
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Lopen posted...

It's possible people were just upset voting when the elim didn't matter and now it's SERIOUS. I kinda thought rematches would just favor the loser but maybe it's more complicated than that. Or maybe it's just noise.

Mega Man vs. Pikachu also suffered from lower votals due to it being the first day back. It's possible some of these Mega Man voters missed the first match.
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Lopen posted...

creativename posted...

So youre just going to pretend 2K5 didnt have the biggest voterbase shift weve ever seen? Really?

2k5 has no reason to disproportionately favor Mario over Samus to that degree. Period. They're on the same boat. I mean you can feel better about the match after seeing yesterday all you want but frankly you really shouldn't. There weren't enough data points in 04 to really feel that confident about a 10% shift. Reasons that the match would be closer this year simply didn't exist then regardless of how you feel about their relative strength in 05 or 04.

As I said this year them being close wasn't really that shocking. I called both meetings correctly and still deny it would be that close in 04. It's simply a null tell. Too much is different now.

Theyre on the same boat. No. Theyre not. Mario team was on roids that year, and Samus is our most stable character with Link. You are in straight up denial trying to pretend Samus was on the same boat as Mario that year.

Im not really sure what the rest of that paragraph means.

But obviously I never claimed there was a 10% shift. I said at most Mario gets 55% in 2K4. And now Im claiming that to say with 100% confidence that Mario beats Samus in 2K4 is now debunked, since a Mario who is closer in strength to her only edged her out. You are being unreasonable if you think it is impossible for a weaker Mario to not be able to lose to her. Mario had some bad performances before 2K5. Why couldnt he lay an egg against her?

Note that I absolutely am not saying Samus beats Mario pre-2K5. I am saying that your prediction of Mario with 60% that you keep bringing up would unquestionably have been wrong in 2K4, as your reasoning did not include the site shift. The only thing up for debate is how wrong it would have been.

Lopen posted...

And I will say if anything this year's meeting empowers the idea of indirectly Mario looking weaker than Samus but still whooping her, considering either he or Tifa had to rSFF or else the match projected to 52%+ win for Samus

Mario seems to be getting 3, maybe 4 points of rSFF here. A Mario who isnt at 48% on Samus to begin with shouldnt be able to whoop her.

I do believe Mario could get more in 2K4 than now despite being weaker, because as Ive said I think SFF is wonky and unpredictable, and Samus might be more sympathetic now precisely because of the first matchs notoriety. But I do not think he would be able to whoop her, unless you have a modest sub-55% definition of whoop.

Im just amazed youre clinging to desperately to these notions. I honestly thought this result would bury this Mario/Samus stuff forever. But I guess this Mario/Samus crap is going to be a zombie meme.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Mega Man vs. Pikachu also suffered from lower votals due to it being the first day back. It's possible some of these Mega Man voters missed the first match.

The match was on pace for less than 28000 votes at one point, but the rally helped out the vote totals and I even think that the later part of the match had some voters that didn't yet know that the contest was back again.
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_SecretSquirrel posted...

Lopen posted...

It's possible people were just upset voting when the elim didn't matter and now it's SERIOUS. I kinda thought rematches would just favor the loser but maybe it's more complicated than that. Or maybe it's just noise.

Mega Man vs. Pikachu also suffered from lower votals due to it being the first day back. It's possible some of these Mega Man voters missed the first match.

Me and Luster did stats on this. The first matches after the hiatus suffered from a disproportionately lower number of Anonymous Voters showing up to vote, which is the demographic that Mega Man and Crono would do better in. The number of Anon Voters has recovered since then.
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creativename posted...

I honestly thought this result would bury this Mario/Samus stuff forever.

Why would it? The absurdity of Mario/Samus being close in 04 was based on an entirely different voting ecosystem. 04 was a year where Link blasted Ganon down to 12%. SFF having less effects this year is not weird. For any amount of strength difference you could call for in Mario/Samus you could also say Mario's less likely to SFF her super hard this year too.

If anything this year proves without a shadow of a doubt (through Seph/Tifa or Mario/Samus) that rSFF exists, which throws out the primary defense of Mario beating Samus which was "Mario would not have been able to SFF her if he was weaker"

The only one who it shuts down was Ulti with his "Samus could never have beaten Mario ever" nonsense.
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pikachu is a fraud
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creativename posted...

Theyre on the same boat. No. Theyre not. Mario team was on roids that year,

Also you're the only one I've seen in this topic try to limit the Nintendo boost to Mario. Makes no sense that it would just be Mario. Results don't support it either. Even if you try and exempt Samus at minimum Ganondorf looks monstrous in 05 compared to 04, as does Kirby. And there are other historically Nintendo linked guys like Sonic who also look better in 05.
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At the 1 hour 25 minute mark in the first match

Megaman had 863 user votes to Pikachu's 854(50.25/49.75)
Megaman had 629 anonymous votes to Pikachu's 503(55.55/44.45)

At the 1 hour 25 minute mark in this match

Megaman had 938 user votes to Pikachu's 836(52.87/47.13)
Megaman had 693 anonymous votes to Pikachu's 598(53.68/46.32)

Users are abandoning Pikachu
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Yeah, I kind of figured Mega Man/Pikachu had a pretty low chance of being close like it was the first time.

Well, this is good news for Snake and Samus.
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I wonder how much of this is a bracket vote effect

A 6% swing is definitely much larger than I thought was likely to happen in one of these rematches.
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It's good news for either Samus or Snake, actually. Since the two face each other first.

Loser's Bracket is weird
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LordoftheMorons posted...

I wonder how much of this is a bracket vote effect

A 6% swing is definitely much larger than I thought was likely to happen in one of these rematches.

Pikachu/MM is going to tighten up a lot overnight.
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I feel like the voters are just being fickle and wanting to flip results for the heck of it.
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LordoftheMorons posted...

I wonder how much of this is a bracket vote effect

A 6% swing is definitely much larger than I thought was likely to happen in one of these rematches.

Shit, I was literally thinking the same thing.
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LeonhartFour posted...

I feel like the voters are just being fickle and wanting to flip results for the heck of it.

Not working out well for Bowser!

These results are (so far) indicative of what would have happened without a neutered Anonymous voterbase. Mega Man really got screwed by timing.
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Lopen posted...

If anything this year proves without a shadow of a doubt (through Seph/Tifa or Mario/Samus) that rSFF exists, which throws out the primary defense of Mario beating Samus which was "Mario would not have been able to SFF her if he was weaker"

This most likely proves the existence of rSFF:

Samus Aran vs. Mario
Registered Vote Result:
Samus Aran - 4398 (47.43%)
Mario - 4875 (52.57%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Samus Aran - 5154 (50.68%)
Mario - 5015 (49.32%)

I thought the stats would be similar to Tifa/Sephiroth with little difference between both groups of users, but looks like I was wrong. Mario had the benefit of being the overall bracket favorite to boost his support with registered users, so it's quite possible that Samus could have won in a match with nothing at stake.
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KamikazePotato posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

I feel like the voters are just being fickle and wanting to flip results for the heck of it.

Not working out well for Bowser!

These results are (so far) indicative of what would have happened without a neutered Anonymous voterbase. Mega Man really got screwed by timing.

Does the Anonymous voterbase also favor Crono?
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KamikazePotato posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

I feel like the voters are just being fickle and wanting to flip results for the heck of it.

Not working out well for Bowser!

These results are (so far) indicative of what would have happened without a neutered Anonymous voterbase. Mega Man really got screwed by timing.

Well, I feel like in a situation where the result wasn't close, they won't bother.

(Sorry, Tifa)
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squexa posted...

Does the Anonymous voterbase also favor Crono?

Yes. Last time, Crono got 54.28% with registered users and 55.94% with anonymous users.
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Could Mario beat Zelda based purely on bracket voting?
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LusterSoldier posted...

Lopen posted...

If anything this year proves without a shadow of a doubt (through Seph/Tifa or Mario/Samus) that rSFF exists, which throws out the primary defense of Mario beating Samus which was "Mario would not have been able to SFF her if he was weaker"

This most likely proves the existence of rSFF:

Samus Aran vs. Mario
Registered Vote Result:
Samus Aran - 4398 (47.43%)
Mario - 4875 (52.57%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Samus Aran - 5154 (50.68%)
Mario - 5015 (49.32%)

I thought the stats would be similar to Tifa/Sephiroth with little difference between both groups of users, but looks like I was wrong. Mario had the benefit of being the overall bracket favorite to boost his support with registered users, so it's quite possible that Samus could have won in a match with nothing at stake.

It proves hentai rallies.
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Lopen posted...

creativename posted...

I honestly thought this result would bury this Mario/Samus stuff forever.

Why would it? The absurdity of Mario/Samus being close in 04 was based on an entirely different voting ecosystem. 04 was a year where Link blasted Ganon down to 12%. SFF having less effects this year is not weird. For any amount of strength difference you could call for in Mario/Samus you could also say Mario's less likely to SFF her super hard this year too.

If anything this year proves without a shadow of a doubt (through Seph/Tifa or Mario/Samus) that rSFF exists, which throws out the primary defense of Mario beating Samus which was "Mario would not have been able to SFF her if he was weaker"

The only one who it shuts down was Ulti with his "Samus could never have beaten Mario ever" nonsense.

Entirely different voting ecosystem

You said it. Not me.

Site shift. Different voting ecosystem.

You want to act all knowing about what a different ecosystem would have resulted in, in 2K4, with different relative character strengths and before a site shift, and I just cant give this credibility.

Lets be clear. Are you saying that Mario getting 60% on Samus in 2K4 is possible? Because i want to be clear on what we are disagreeing on. As Ive said, my claims are that Mario would get no more than 55% on Samus in 2K4, and it is not a 100% lock that he wins.

Are you claiming he pushes 60% in 2K4, and its a 100% lock he wins?

Lopen posted...

creativename posted...

Theyre on the same boat. No. Theyre not. Mario team was on roids that year,

Also you're the only one I've seen in this topic try to limit the Nintendo boost to Mario. Makes no sense that it would just be Mario. Results don't support it either. Even if you try and exempt Samus at minimum Ganondorf looks monstrous in 05 compared to 04, as does Kirby. And there are other historically Nintendo linked guys like Sonic who also look better in 05.

I have literally never seen anyone try and claim Samus boosted from 2K4 to 2K5 other than you.

People did believe in a Nintendo boost, but it was always talked about especially for Team Mario, and Mario himself. It was always Mario is on r01dszz!! Mario was on the warpath against everybody not-Clinkeroth that year.

I have already analyzed your claims of Samus boosting, I do not recall what I said, and I really dont care to bother with that again. It is pointless.

Everything's gonna be ok guys.
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LusterSoldier posted...

Lopen posted...

If anything this year proves without a shadow of a doubt (through Seph/Tifa or Mario/Samus) that rSFF exists, which throws out the primary defense of Mario beating Samus which was "Mario would not have been able to SFF her if he was weaker"

This most likely proves the existence of rSFF:

Samus Aran vs. Mario
Registered Vote Result:
Samus Aran - 4398 (47.43%)
Mario - 4875 (52.57%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Samus Aran - 5154 (50.68%)
Mario - 5015 (49.32%)

I thought the stats would be similar to Tifa/Sephiroth with little difference between both groups of users, but looks like I was wrong. Mario had the benefit of being the overall bracket favorite to boost his support with registered users, so it's quite possible that Samus could have won in a match with nothing at stake.

But dont the results so far indicate the registered users are more hardcore Nintendo fans?

I thought non-Nintendo characters did better with anonymous voters outside of rallies, especially Square characters. Was I getting the wrong impression?

UltimaterializerX posted...

Even *I* have stopped the Samus/Mario trash after yesterday. If you think Samus can ever win that match, you're vindicated. She can, at some point, potentially beat him.

I was happy that result happened, because I really thought it would kill the horribly annoying Mario/Samus stuff.

So naive :\ Le sigh.

Pikachu cut

creativename posted...

Lets be clear. Are you saying that Mario getting 60% on Samus in 2K4 is possible? Because i want to be clear on what we are disagreeing on. As Ive said, my claims are that Mario would get no more than 55% on Samus in 2K4, and it is not a 100% lock that he wins.

Are you claiming he pushes 60% in 2K4, and its a 100% lock he wins?

Well nothing is 100%, but I'd bet every penny to my name on Mario beating Samus in 04 if I could make some sort of wager via time machine.

It's certainly, to me, much much more likely that he gets close to 60% than loses the match. I'd say getting as much as 63% in 04 is more likely than losing. It's more likely a bit lower. It's nowhere near 52%. I feel confident in that much. Close SFF matches just didn't hapoen in 04. That contest is why SFF became a topic for discussion, because they were so lopsided.

creativename posted...

You want to act all knowing about what a different ecosystem would have resulted in, in 2K4, with different relative character strengths and before a site shift, and I just cant give this credibility.

I'm saying the ecosystem was different between NOW and 04/05. Not 04 and 05. 05 was just some characters boosting. The SFF patterns and antivoting habits and stuff weren't that much different. The overall dynamic of the site is way different now than it was then, mostly because of vote totals falling off a cliff.
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Guys.

Come on.
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this is why Samus just needed to win

all the more reason to vote for her in the runback
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KamikazePotato posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

I feel like the voters are just being fickle and wanting to flip results for the heck of it.

Not working out well for Bowser!

These results are (so far) indicative of what would have happened without a neutered Anonymous voterbase. Mega Man really got screwed by timing.

He's actually doing a bit worse with the anonymous base than the first match. It's the users that are making the difference

Crono on the other hand, is basically just doing .5% better with both users and anonymous than last time
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How the fuck are you 30-something year old dudes rehashing arguments about a video game popularity contest from 13 years ago
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UltimaterializerX posted...

Even *I* have stopped the Samus/Mario trash after yesterday. If you think Samus can ever win that match, you're vindicated. She can, at some point, potentially beat him.

My argument has always been a 60-40 ain't flipping over the time of one year. Never that Samus can't win. But I always said you dumbed that match down a lot. I called both matches almost perfectly though, so I mean, on this topic I at least have some credibility on understanding the dynamics at work.

Samus was wrong in 05 and it would be wrong in 04 because we've proven rSFF does exist which was really the only counterargument (most people disagreed rSFF was possible). Someday it might be right. I feel like that someday will probably be a few days from now, but yeah.
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maybe samus doesn't need to win, but we all need to learn to move on after 13 years. this is like watching resident evil fans complain about resident evil 4 still yet >_>
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Resident Evil fans had a problem with Resident Evil 4?
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

Resident Evil fans had a problem with Resident Evil 4?

That it doomed the rest of the series away from being a survival horror genre franchise.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Resident Evil fans had a problem with Resident Evil 4?

Oh, you're incredibly lucky not to have met the sour classic RE fans <_<

Yes, there's a small group of RE fans that still complain about RE4 shifting the focus away from survival horror and garbage camera angles (I say as a classic fan). Like half the users that still post on the old RE boards are still mad about it, and there's people on the RE2make board that bring it up every so often.
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creativename posted...

But dont the results so far indicate the registered users are more hardcore Nintendo fans?

I thought non-Nintendo characters did better with anonymous voters outside of rallies, especially Square characters. Was I getting the wrong impression?

Anonymous voters do tend to favor non-Nintendo characters more than Nintendo characters, but it was quite interesting that they seemed to favor Samus in a match featuring 2 Nintendo characters.
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Samus is less Nintendo-y than Mario, so it makes sense.
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no one had any issues with RE4 when it came out

they only started to retroactively complain about it after RE5, and especially RE6, came out

even then its really just a very small vocal minority.

I am happy to move on I just don't like people saying calling Mario > Samus by a lot was luck that depended upon Mario boosting when we literally just had a match that proved rSFF exists.

Like thinking Samus got SFFed less in the runback is not weird. It's something I expected, even, given how SFF matches have been going this contest. Spinning that as a point in favor of Samus/Mario being debatable in 04 is just like, what?
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