Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1316

(+) Yeah! (+)

Crisis....is getting closer to averted. But will take a few more updates to feel safe.
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watch pikachu go up right now
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red sox 777 posted...

Crisis....is getting closer to averted. But will take a few more updates to feel safe.

Waht Crisis?

PIkachu winning again? We aren't safe from that

IF you mean Bowser then he had no chance tbh. You can reverse a 51/52 defecit in a week due to more votes or whatever but not 55/45
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SlugSh0t posted...

watch pikachu go up right now

That's what the previous trends predict, so...
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lol pikachu
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SlugSh0t posted...

watch pikachu go up right now

How much you wanna bet he never takes the Lead ever again in this match?
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Yeah, that was supposed to be a cut, Pikachu.
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SlugSh0t posted...

lol pikachu

Link Brutalised this poor thing last round. He's too weak now. Needs Hyper Potion of some kind.
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Yuri_LowelI posted...

SlugSh0t posted...

watch pikachu go up right now

How much you wanna bet he never takes the Lead ever again in this match?

Im good, I dont care who wins too much, but would have liked to see pikachu beat crono..I dont think mm can beat crono.
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Yuri_LowelI posted...

red sox 777 posted...

Crisis....is getting closer to averted. But will take a few more updates to feel safe.

Waht Crisis?

PIkachu winning again? We aren't safe from that

IF you mean Bowser then he had no chance tbh. You can reverse a 51/52 defecit in a week due to more votes or whatever but not 55/45

Bowser obviously. And I know there's no chance, but I've been burned too many times before. Knuckles/Magus, Sonic/Crono, Crono/Vincent 2007, Crono/Missingno, CT/SSBM.....

CT was winning with a lot more than 55% too. Try 61%. And rising fast.
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Pikachu took the lead for first time eight hours into the first match... he has plenty of time as long as MM doesn't get several hundred votes ahead.
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Imagine a Chrono Trigger remake with Dragon Quest XI graphics.
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Registered voters heavily preferred Mario, but anon voters preferred Samus a little. And that looks like one of the biggest flips in the contest in that regard.

nice update ;D..stopped the bleeding both
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SlugSh0t posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

SlugSh0t posted...

watch pikachu go up right now

How much you wanna bet he never takes the Lead ever again in this match?

Im good, I dont care who wins too much, but would have liked to see pikachu beat crono..I dont think mm can beat crono.

MM could. Who knows. But I think Crono beats Both.
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SwiftyDC posted...

Imagine a Chrono Trigger remake with Dragon Quest XI graphics.

Imagine a Sequel with those graphics that ends up being better than the original and Crono being in Smash.
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Yeah, Crono was already shooting for the stars by now, so it's intriguing that he's struggling so much now.
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Legends and Loser Bracket, Round 2

Zelda vs. Sonic the Hedgehog
Registered Vote Result:
Zelda - 5224 (56.33%)
Sonic the Hedgehog - 4050 (43.67%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Zelda - 5762 (56.66%)
Sonic the Hedgehog - 4407 (43.34%)

Samus Aran vs. Mario
Registered Vote Result:
Samus Aran - 4398 (47.43%)
Mario - 4875 (52.57%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Samus Aran - 5154 (50.68%)
Mario - 5015 (49.32%)

Not much difference on Zelda/Sonic, and the registered users preferred Sonic slightly more than Zelda.

Mario performed about 3% better with registered users and Samus outright won the anonymous user vote. The bracket prediction stats for both bracket contests suggests that Mario was the outright favorite over Samus, so bracket voting would have played a factor in Mario winning the registered user vote. I don't know if these voting splits actually proves the existence of rSFF or not.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub
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you suck bowser
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Excellent!
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Great update for Crono and MM. I think their updates are going to be correlated pretty well today. I feel like having Crono/Bowser in the other poll rather than Link/Ganondorf should help MM a little bit. Link is always a big vote draw and his voters will lean Nintendo.
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But... The future refused to change.
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I still think he's doing well overall considering he's the only character in the entire LEgends Bracket that hasn't had new appearances in a game for 20+ Years. Pikachu has bhad millions and even now a movie star, MM has had smash appearance and a few 2D releaes. WE all know about Bowser. The FF characters appear in KH or other games to keep them relevant. Crono? Nothing .

The only thing he has thats of modern appeal is that DBZ AKira Toriyama art style that people can recognise.
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paulg235 posted...

But... The future refused to change.

Well, only for one side of the coin though.
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That was quite the update by Crono. Wow.
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Hope Im not speaking too soon but looks like MM got this.

Kill_It.RaT

We need to be spared another CT/Pokemon match.
red sox 777 posted...

creativename posted...

red sox 777 posted...

Ive also said before that I think SFF is wonky, sensitive and unpredictable. I think this match and Link/Ganon more or less confirm that.

I think the other side to this is the idea that SFF is extremely stable (i.e. Mario will gain 10 points from SFF against Samus regardless of whether he's starting from 52% or 44%). Although I don't think that's what Lopen is arguing either.

I don't know that these matches have shown much regarding which is more stable - SFF relationships or ordinary strength. We are talking about matches 13 years apart. The Sephiroth/Tifa spread moving 20 points in that same span is more surprising (and it's a change in their ordinary strength by all appearances, there was no SFF in either of their paths in 2005).

But the Mario will gain 10 points is clearly false. Unless you think Sephiroth rSFFed Tifa or had a massive pic advantage or something.

I mean theres no way in hell Mario indirectly gets 58-42d by Samus. So clearly SFF is not stable in that way.

Yeah, I could see it being more stable than overall strength though. I do agree that SFF should respond to the overall strength gap changing, but I never thought it made sense for it to "pivot" at 50/50. Like the event horizon of a black hole, we shouldn't notice any major change in the SFF relationship by crossing that line other than calling it rSFF. It's just that normally, SFF dynamics are so strongly correlated with overall strength that it's really rare to see SFF in favor of a character who is at 50% or worse indirectly.

Is there anyone claiming it pivots/flips? I think everyone agrees pre-2K5 Mario rSFFs Samus, its a debate of degree.

im317 posted...

Hyrule Warriors was big for Ganon with its story mode.

How many people played that game though? I dont think it was a hit right?

I think if that game never came out, it probably doesnt affect things much. Link was never going to come close to 88% on Ganon again, Hyrule Warriors or no.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

I still think he's doing well overall considering he's the only character in the entire LEgends Bracket that hasn't had new appearances in a game for 20+ Years. Pikachu has bhad millions and even now a movie star, MM has had smash appearance and a few 2D releaes. WE all know about Bowser. The FF characters appear in KH or other games to keep them relevant. Crono? Nothing .

The only thing he has thats of modern appeal is that DBZ AKira Toriyama art style that people can recognise.

CT didn't even get included in the SNES Mini :(
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*checks results*...

WAHAHA! My Oracle is so screwed right now...
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The Noble Nine are fighting back!

Yuri_LowelI posted...

God Damn Mega Man.

Just Beat this Rat already. Really want to see Crono/MM

Ooohhh. Crono/Mega Man would be fun.
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creativename posted...

How many people played that game though? I dont think it was a hit right?

It sold over a million on Wii U, but that's all I know

i dont think there's reliable info on the 3DS and Switch sales
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How much of a lead does MM need before Europe absolutely Rapes MM?

I'm guessing MM needs to be 200 minimum by 12am PST
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Yuri_LowelI posted...

I still think he's doing well overall considering he's the only character in the entire LEgends Bracket that hasn't had new appearances in a game for 20+ Years. Pikachu has bhad millions and even now a movie star, MM has had smash appearance and a few 2D releaes. WE all know about Bowser. The FF characters appear in KH or other games to keep them relevant. Crono? Nothing .

The only thing he has thats of modern appeal is that DBZ AKira Toriyama art style that people can recognise.

You know, that is a very good point. Chrono Trigger remains one of the most popular Squaresoft games ever, at least among their hardcore fanbase. Why hasn't Crono ever been in a Kingdom Hearts game?
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snake_5036 posted...

creativename posted...

How many people played that game though? I dont think it was a hit right?

It sold over a million on Wii U, but that's all I know

i dont think there's reliable info on the 3DS and Switch sales

I got it on Switch. Really good game and Although Ganon was relevant in it Zelda definitely boosted from from that game if anhyone did. She was awesome in Hyrule Warriors.
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TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

I still think he's doing well overall considering he's the only character in the entire LEgends Bracket that hasn't had new appearances in a game for 20+ Years. Pikachu has bhad millions and even now a movie star, MM has had smash appearance and a few 2D releaes. WE all know about Bowser. The FF characters appear in KH or other games to keep them relevant. Crono? Nothing .

The only thing he has thats of modern appeal is that DBZ AKira Toriyama art style that people can recognise.

You know, that is a very good point. Chrono Trigger remains one of the most popular Squaresoft games ever, at least among their hardcore fanbase. Why hasn't Crono ever been in a Kingdom Hearts game?

I thought KH was FF only?

BEcause SE don't give a shit about Chrono Trigger except making ports.

All that fucking money they wasted on 15 Development and they can't even do a Remake? Fuck that awful company.
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I definitely suspect Hyrule Warriors helped Zelda. Sure, its sales put it far from the biggest Zelda games, but it still opened the series up to fans of a different style of game, and HW Zelda is super-cool.

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

You know, that is a very good point. Chrono Trigger remains one of the most popular Squaresoft games ever, at least among their hardcore fanbase. Why hasn't Crono ever been in a Kingdom Hearts game?

Square all but ignores Chrono Trigger for... some reason.
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Yuri_LowelI posted...

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

I still think he's doing well overall considering he's the only character in the entire LEgends Bracket that hasn't had new appearances in a game for 20+ Years. Pikachu has bhad millions and even now a movie star, MM has had smash appearance and a few 2D releaes. WE all know about Bowser. The FF characters appear in KH or other games to keep them relevant. Crono? Nothing .

The only thing he has thats of modern appeal is that DBZ AKira Toriyama art style that people can recognise.

You know, that is a very good point. Chrono Trigger remains one of the most popular Squaresoft games ever, at least among their hardcore fanbase. Why hasn't Crono ever been in a Kingdom Hearts game?

I thought KH was FF only?

BEcause SE don't give a shit about Chrono Trigger except making ports.

All that fucking money they wasted on 15 Development and they can't even do a Remake? Fuck that awful company.

It's not FF only; Neku was in one of them.
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I hope it's the same reason they avoid the FFVII remake. They know they can't do it justice.
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Yuri_LowelI posted...

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

I still think he's doing well overall considering he's the only character in the entire LEgends Bracket that hasn't had new appearances in a game for 20+ Years. Pikachu has bhad millions and even now a movie star, MM has had smash appearance and a few 2D releaes. WE all know about Bowser. The FF characters appear in KH or other games to keep them relevant. Crono? Nothing .

The only thing he has thats of modern appeal is that DBZ AKira Toriyama art style that people can recognise.

You know, that is a very good point. Chrono Trigger remains one of the most popular Squaresoft games ever, at least among their hardcore fanbase. Why hasn't Crono ever been in a Kingdom Hearts game?

I thought KH was FF only?

BEcause SE don't give a shit about Chrono Trigger except making ports.

All that fucking money they wasted on 15 Development and they can't even do a Remake? Fuck that awful company.

one of the KH games had TWEWY characters
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Both Crono and Megaman now doing better than last round.
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creativename posted...

So youre just going to pretend 2K5 didnt have the biggest voterbase shift weve ever seen? Really?

2k5 has no reason to disproportionately favor Mario over Samus to that degree. Period. They're on the same boat. I mean you can feel better about the match after seeing yesterday all you want but frankly you really shouldn't. There weren't enough data points in 04 to really feel that confident about a 10% shift. Reasons that the match would be closer this year simply didn't exist then regardless of how you feel about their relative strength in 05 or 04.

As I said this year them being close wasn't really that shocking. I called both meetings correctly and still deny it would be that close in 04. It's simply a null tell. Too much is different now.
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Chrono Trigger DS got outsold by the like 14th re-release of FFIV.

"Why doesn't this company remake very niche games?"
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I guess Pikachu got his novelty win over Megaman and people don't care as much now
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And I will say if anything this year's meeting empowers the idea of indirectly Mario looking weaker than Samus but still whooping her, considering either he or Tifa had to rSFF or else the match projected to 52%+ win for Samus
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WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Chrono Trigger DS got outsold by the like 14th re-release of FFIV.

"Why doesn't this company remake very niche games?"

Which FFIV release outsold CTDS? If you are talking about the DS one, that was a fulll fledged remake.
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WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Chrono Trigger DS got outsold by the like 14th re-release of FFIV.

"Why doesn't this company remake very niche games?"

CT dS was a friggin port.

No it didn't. CT DS did very well. Especially in Europe where it made it's Debut

Also CTDS was a friggin Port

I'm talking a FFIV esque Remake or FF3(original)
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Then00bAvenger posted...

I guess Pikachu got his novelty win over Megaman and people don't care as much now

Hopefully the same applies to Zelda when Snake faces her again.

EDIT: Damit. Forgot Samu will take him out before then. Ahh well.
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Yuri_LowelI posted...

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Chrono Trigger DS got outsold by the like 14th re-release of FFIV.

"Why doesn't this company remake very niche games?"

CT dS was a friggin port.

No it didn't. CT DS did very well. Especially in Europe where it made it's Debut

Also CTDS was a friggin Port

I'm talking a FFIV esque Remake or FF3(original)

CTDS wasn't a port, either.
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snake_5036 posted...

creativename posted...

How many people played that game though? I dont think it was a hit right?

It sold over a million on Wii U, but that's all I know

i dont think there's reliable info on the 3DS and Switch sales

Oh. Thats a hit then, thanks for the correction. Still, I doubt it made much difference for Ganon against Link, and Ganon wouldve done much better than the first time regardless of it the game existed.

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

I still think he's doing well overall considering he's the only character in the entire LEgends Bracket that hasn't had new appearances in a game for 20+ Years. Pikachu has bhad millions and even now a movie star, MM has had smash appearance and a few 2D releaes. WE all know about Bowser. The FF characters appear in KH or other games to keep them relevant. Crono? Nothing .

The only thing he has thats of modern appeal is that DBZ AKira Toriyama art style that people can recognise.

You know, that is a very good point. Chrono Trigger remains one of the most popular Squaresoft games ever, at least among their hardcore fanbase. Why hasn't Crono ever been in a Kingdom Hearts game?

Because they are out of touch and do not know what their fans want.

Their fans want more games like Octopath Traveler IMO. Those game would also be less risky than massive budget titles. They should make more higher quantity of budget games IMO, and do remakes in different art styles.

I like Octopath. But it's not even in the same Stratosphere as CT. Octopath is a 8/10 game at best

IF they want to do those style of games then please put more effort into their storytelling. Gameplay is great though.
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TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Chrono Trigger DS got outsold by the like 14th re-release of FFIV.

"Why doesn't this company remake very niche games?"

CT dS was a friggin port.

No it didn't. CT DS did very well. Especially in Europe where it made it's Debut

Also CTDS was a friggin Port

I'm talking a FFIV esque Remake or FF3(original)

CTDS wasn't a port, either.

It was just about as much of a port as RE2/RE3 and RECV were for DReamCast and Gamecube.

All they did was ad a few extra bits and cleaned up the image.

Remake is remodelling the entire game either in 3D or with compeltely new Textures. CTDS had none of this.
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