Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1316

(+) Yeah! (+)

redrocket posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

man I didn't think BT could somehow become worse than he already was but he has proven me wrong by how buttfurious he continues to be about Tifa/MMX

"SJWFF"

I still want to know why there's two F's

If two minorities go against each other, the one with the least privilege benefits more from the factor, taking away precious SJW votes from its competition. Obviously the ultimate benefactor would be Fran from FFXII so she can get the furry vote, the hentai vote and a triple SJW factor by being a strong arguably black woman. Zelda and Tifa are shaking right now.

Take notes for next character battle, y'all.
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Ive also said before that I think SFF is wonky, sensitive and unpredictable. I think this match and Link/Ganon more or less confirm that.

I think the other side to this is the idea that SFF is extremely stable (i.e. Mario will gain 10 points from SFF against Samus regardless of whether he's starting from 52% or 44%). Although I don't think that's what Lopen is arguing either.

I don't know that these matches have shown much regarding which is more stable - SFF relationships or ordinary strength. We are talking about matches 13 years apart. The Sephiroth/Tifa spread moving 20 points in that same span is more surprising (and it's a change in their ordinary strength by all appearances, there was no SFF in either of their paths in 2005).
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SJWs are the good guys.

Get over it.

Hmm, no sign of any new match pictures using the known URLs, unless I'm missing something.
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creativename posted...

But a 51.6ish% victory can clearly be flipped depending on year. Youd be in denial to not accept that.

Like if you're going to ask me could Samus/Mario have been Samus's victory in 2017 or 2019 (or even next week)? Absolutely.

But 2005 was not the year of a 51.6% victory. 2005 was the year of a 60% victory. A match flipping on its head by that much in the span of one year with no specific reason to attribute to it, I don't accept as very plausible or likely.
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And Link simply hasn't been able to record those 2004 style blowouts ever since he got returned to a 1v1 main bracket (I think he did have some nice performances in the 4-way era). I blame anti-voting for this, and yeah, I could buy Ganondorf getting 40% of his votes from Link anti-votes.
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Lopen posted...

3 guys sandwiched in between a match that ended closer than 51-49 huh? Bold.

I think you have swayed me on Crono vs Snake for 8. I was leaning towards Snake on that initially, but so many people backing Crono to beat MM/Pika made me think I had Crono too low at 9. I don't agree that Crono belongs on an entirely different tier than Zelda/MM/Pika/Snake though, and definitely not below Tifa/Sephiroth. Fortunately we will get to see where Crono is in relation to MM/Pika soon enough.

Also, I can see MM/Pika beating Snake by a bigger margin than Zelda did, but I think Zelda would beat both of them heads up due to HIERARCHY. If all 3 are beating Snake and lower and losing to Cloud and higher, I think it makes more sense to rank them in order of who beats who rather than minor indirect strength in that Zelda gets 50.3 on Snake and MM/Pika get 51 or w/e.
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Lopen posted...

creativename posted...

I do not have any confidence in trying to predict a 2K4 match between these two, but clearly at this point people should be able to concede a 2K4 Samus victory is no longer something you can dismiss out of hand.

Sure you do because there's no reason to expect any matchup to flip over 10% from year to year without a significant release or factor specific to one of the characters to point to.

Let it be known I predicted this meeting within 1% too, if we're keeping score.

So youre just going to pretend 2K5 didnt have the biggest voterbase shift weve ever seen? Really?

You predicted it accurately with bad reasoning. Weve gone over that. Getting a prediction right lends more credence to ones reasoning, but in no way does it confirm it.

As Ive said, Mario gained at least 4 points in base strength relative to Samus from 2k4 to 2k5. And I also believe SFF powers will tend to increase with relative strength.

Also I think SFF is sensitive, and the 2K4 base couldve had different SFF dynamics than the 2K5 base. Mario team was on roids in 2k5. Mario just seemed straight stronger than Samus that year.

I am definitely not saying Samus would win in 2k4. Im saying its silly to act like its a 100% lock at this point. And I dont think this should be a controversial statement.

red sox 777 posted...

Ive also said before that I think SFF is wonky, sensitive and unpredictable. I think this match and Link/Ganon more or less confirm that.

I think the other side to this is the idea that SFF is extremely stable (i.e. Mario will gain 10 points from SFF against Samus regardless of whether he's starting from 52% or 44%). Although I don't think that's what Lopen is arguing either.

I don't know that these matches have shown much regarding which is more stable - SFF relationships or ordinary strength. We are talking about matches 13 years apart. The Sephiroth/Tifa spread moving 20 points in that same span is more surprising (and it's a change in their ordinary strength by all appearances, there was no SFF in either of their paths in 2005).

But the Mario will gain 10 points is clearly false. Unless you think Sephiroth rSFFed Tifa or had a massive pic advantage or something.

I mean theres no way in hell Mario indirectly gets 58-42d by Samus. So clearly SFF is not stable in that way.

No match pics yet?
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creativename posted...

red sox 777 posted...

Ive also said before that I think SFF is wonky, sensitive and unpredictable. I think this match and Link/Ganon more or less confirm that.

I think the other side to this is the idea that SFF is extremely stable (i.e. Mario will gain 10 points from SFF against Samus regardless of whether he's starting from 52% or 44%). Although I don't think that's what Lopen is arguing either.

I don't know that these matches have shown much regarding which is more stable - SFF relationships or ordinary strength. We are talking about matches 13 years apart. The Sephiroth/Tifa spread moving 20 points in that same span is more surprising (and it's a change in their ordinary strength by all appearances, there was no SFF in either of their paths in 2005).

But the Mario will gain 10 points is clearly false. Unless you think Sephiroth rSFFed Tifa or had a massive pic advantage or something.

I mean theres no way in hell Mario indirectly gets 58-42d by Samus. So clearly SFF is not stable in that way.

Yeah, I could see it being more stable than overall strength though. I do agree that SFF should respond to the overall strength gap changing, but I never thought it made sense for it to "pivot" at 50/50. Like the event horizon of a black hole, we shouldn't notice any major change in the SFF relationship by crossing that line other than calling it rSFF. It's just that normally, SFF dynamics are so strongly correlated with overall strength that it's really rare to see SFF in favor of a character who is at 50% or worse indirectly.
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hylianknight3 posted...

No match pics yet?

It's probably a new theme not related to sprites
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red sox 777 posted...

And Link simply hasn't been able to record those 2004 style blowouts ever since he got returned to a 1v1 main bracket (I think he did have some nice performances in the 4-way era). I blame anti-voting for this, and yeah, I could buy Ganondorf getting 40% of his votes from Link anti-votes.

Ganon is just stronger now?

I mean WTF do peopleexpect Link to do? He got 78% on Ganondorf. Thats NOT his normal strength theres clearly some SFF involved. No way is his natural strength 78% on friggin Ganondorf.
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NowItsAngeTime posted...

hylianknight3 posted...

No match pics yet?

It's probably a new theme not related to sprites

I'm amazed at SB's ability to make themed match pic rounds without cluing us in.
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cmon pikachu/bowser!
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Also Samus has cut and stalled MArio for 7 hours

Absolutely Beast of a performance by her

Confirms that She will clean up the Losers Bracket with Consumate Ease.

Does anyone else think she will get a higher % Against Zelda than Mario? I expect both to beat her but Samus could get something around 55% against Zelda.

Also I'm going to predict she BEats MArio in the REmatch

Smash will be out higher vote totals will occur and She will make up that 700 vote difference.
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Yuri_LowelI posted...

red sox 777 posted...

And Link simply hasn't been able to record those 2004 style blowouts ever since he got returned to a 1v1 main bracket (I think he did have some nice performances in the 4-way era). I blame anti-voting for this, and yeah, I could buy Ganondorf getting 40% of his votes from Link anti-votes.

Ganon is just stronger now?

I mean WTF do peopleexpect Link to do? He got 78% on Ganondorf. Thats NOT his normal strength theres clearly some SFF involved. No way is his natural strength 78% on friggin Ganondorf.

No one expected him to get his 88% again, but that's what he did last time with the full power of the SFF hammer.
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Samus easily won the final hour outright. Not bad.
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Pikachu with a stronger start
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Board vote so far is exactly the same as it was last time.
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red sox 777 posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

red sox 777 posted...

And Link simply hasn't been able to record those 2004 style blowouts ever since he got returned to a 1v1 main bracket (I think he did have some nice performances in the 4-way era). I blame anti-voting for this, and yeah, I could buy Ganondorf getting 40% of his votes from Link anti-votes.

Ganon is just stronger now?

I mean WTF do peopleexpect Link to do? He got 78% on Ganondorf. Thats NOT his normal strength theres clearly some SFF involved. No way is his natural strength 78% on friggin Ganondorf.

No one expected him to get his 88% again, but that's what he did last time with the full power of the SFF hammer.

But Ganons been in more games. He's been in Brawl SSB4 which were popular games. HE was in TP and BOTW somewhat

Link can still SFF anyone i mean look at the damn Pikachu result but Him only getting 78% on Ganon is more of a testament to Ganon having more of a "core" following and not being abolsutely SFF'd to the ground. It doens't show us that Link is Weaker. It's just other characters are more relevant now.
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bowser doing better this time
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Oh, he just stuck -3 at the end of each pic. Silly SB.
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Hey Crono, you don't have to try to give me a heart attack.......get to winning already.
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Match pictures for today's matches:

https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/user/pikachu-f-ange-3.png
https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/user/mega-f-ulti-3.png
https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/user/crono-f-moon-3.png
https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/user/bowser-f-ange-3.png

https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/user/pikachu-b-ulti-3.png
https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/user/mega-b-ulti-3.png
https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/user/crono-b-ulti-3.png
https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/user/bowser-b-ange-3.png
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crono you beat this stinky turtle before

you can do it again
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quick what does crono get on crono
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Thats probably the best Pikachu Pic i've seen in these Contests. Every other time i've antivoted him for being that Cutesy type pokemon that is popular but I generally have grown tired of. But This Pikachu is serious.

Also doesn't MM have any other ecent Artwork? Lokos so basic. I mean have a mean face man or look serious.
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tuxedo pic hurt bowser confirmed
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There've been a lot of moments here where both matches have the same vote margin.
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Mega Man and Crono are both doing a little worse at the freeze than they were the first time around.
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Well, Bowser has kept the lead until the freeze, something he was not able to do last time around.
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Smash is coming out in 2 days. There are more users here than last time. So Naturally Bowser gets a boost from that.
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nah, it was tuxedo bowser that hurt him.
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God Damn Mega Man.

Just Beat this Rat already. Really want to see Crono/MM
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Yuri_LowelI posted...

red sox 777 posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

red sox 777 posted...

And Link simply hasn't been able to record those 2004 style blowouts ever since he got returned to a 1v1 main bracket (I think he did have some nice performances in the 4-way era). I blame anti-voting for this, and yeah, I could buy Ganondorf getting 40% of his votes from Link anti-votes.

Ganon is just stronger now?

I mean WTF do peopleexpect Link to do? He got 78% on Ganondorf. Thats NOT his normal strength theres clearly some SFF involved. No way is his natural strength 78% on friggin Ganondorf.

No one expected him to get his 88% again, but that's what he did last time with the full power of the SFF hammer.

But Ganons been in more games. He's been in Brawl SSB4 which were popular games. HE was in TP and BOTW somewhat

Link can still SFF anyone i mean look at the damn Pikachu result but Him only getting 78% on Ganon is more of a testament to Ganon having more of a "core" following and not being abolsutely SFF'd to the ground. It doens't show us that Link is Weaker. It's just other characters are more relevant now.

Hyrule Warriors was big for Ganon with its story mode.
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At 5 minutes in the original match, Mega Man had 51.36% and a 13 vote lead.
At 5 minutes in the original match, Crono had 50.30% and a 4 vote lead.
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SlugSh0t posted...

nah, it was tuxedo bowser that hurt him.

Bit of both i reckon.

Cloud/Link is on Thursday Correct? Thats going to generate the highest amount of votes so far this contest easily.
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Interestingly, votals are up for Mega/Pika, but down for Bowser/Crono at the 10 minute mark.
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its amazing Meg Man in the UK is this bad this fast. i would have thought the board vote at least would be less lopsided.
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Mega Man is winning at least

Without any Rallies MM has got this. Consider it Called
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Crono and MM both went up on the first updates first time round... and both did so this time.

On the second update last time Crono started pulling away towards a 100 vote lead and MM reached the best % he would see in the whole match while up 100 votes.
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I wanna see pikachu beat crono cmon!
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im317 posted...

its amazing Meg Man in the UK is this bad this fast. i would have thought the board vote at least would be less lopsided.

He's literally Bomberman Level. Honestly MM is nothing in the UK. My first MM related game i played was ZX on DS. I had SNES for 4 years and never played a single MM or MMX game. Nor did I care to play it because i didn't know anyone else that did. The first time i heard of MM was in these contests back in 2002
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Crono used Super Slash
MM used Canonbolt
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I think Mega Man is cursed now. He's got 666 votes. He's doomed.
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So long D Bowser!
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3 people fell off the Top 50. Logicblade, SwiftyDC and Metal_DK did not have Zelda and Mario winning yesterday.

47 people got one wrong and didn't fall very much if at all. SpikeDragon, XIII_rocks, Zylothewolf, TheBiggerWiggle, Vegink, Amyson, Osfan, PSI_NESS, th3l3fty, Moonroof, iGenesis, OrangeCrush980, half_silver28, Cb7799, FFIXOwner, fpce666, Lukejalil, Underleveled, Gyarados, Fart, TylerF, SynergyNR, gitanil, Seanchan, ALAKA, PreseaCombatir, hylianknight3, pyresword, Camden, Captain_Sorzo, tennisboy213, art_of_the_kill, SoraLink2649, Tjian, KeepinItFresh, _SecretSquirrel, creativename, pirate109, Steevo_234, Bane_Of_Despair, SexThaNemesis, dimi161, Z1mZum, Safer_777, swirIdude, stafoc and rpgsruleall also did not have Zelda and Mario winning yesterday.

23 people fell off the Second Chance Top 50. peace__out, WANDER7, Zelink16, heikun, profDEADPOOL, Kineth, MrCrystopher, MisterPanda, 71421326396897, Paladin14x, Emulator, milky_way, Master_Joel, Nightwasp, Keegs77, snowboard340, Varkhal, skeIedragon, Gynthaeres, MageODeath, kg6iwd, ChristianWalker and angelkay16 didn't have Zelda and Mario winning either.

2 people survived the 16 point hit on the Second Chance Top 50. ZeroCopy and Hajelikto manage to survive despite only having one of Zelda or Mario winning.
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Also, the two matches are one vote off from the same percentages.
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How amazing would be it be if we ended up with the exact same % end of the match? I don't think we'll be far off. I expect Crono to do slightly wose and MM to do slightly better(and beat Pikachu)
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