Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 88888888888888888888888~

(+) Yeah! (+)

Kirby woulda won this
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I don't buy this Bowser is juiced up unless you mean he's drunk
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Okay yeah Cloud might actually get 62%. What is the FF7 board vote, anyway. Well, Cloud board vote. Tifa and Aeris did just fine!
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Cloud's always had the craziest swings. it's because he's the strongest of the bunch, I think. this is pretty decent by Cloud given the other matches.

man, Mario vs. Sephiroth is going to clear up a lot.
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MasterMoltar posted...

Yuriharts Analysis

My initial thought was that Crono would win this easily, but as Im watching Mega Man hold on for dear life against Pikachu, Im not so sure! Im not convinced that Crono is any stronger than Mega Man, but its honestly looking like Pikachu is the strongest non-Noble Nine Nintendo character at this point. I definitely wouldnt take Bowser over him, so that gives Crono some breathing room. I think hell have enough to get the job done. Either way, this Legends bracket could be crazier than I originally gave it credit for!

Yuriharts Vote: Bowser

Yuriharts Prediction: Crono with 53.13%

Leon, why did you call yourself "Yurihart" in that write-up?
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transience posted...

Kirby woulda won this

amen
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LusterSoldier posted...

MasterMoltar posted...

Yuriharts Analysis

My initial thought was that Crono would win this easily, but as Im watching Mega Man hold on for dear life against Pikachu, Im not so sure! Im not convinced that Crono is any stronger than Mega Man, but its honestly looking like Pikachu is the strongest non-Noble Nine Nintendo character at this point. I definitely wouldnt take Bowser over him, so that gives Crono some breathing room. I think hell have enough to get the job done. Either way, this Legends bracket could be crazier than I originally gave it credit for!

Yuriharts Vote: Bowser

Yuriharts Prediction: Crono with 53.13%

Leon, why did you call yourself "Yurihart" in that write-up?

That's one of the characters from DDLC.

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yes!
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Cannot wait for the salty runback.

Where Pikachu wins by more
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that's gonna be so weird. I wonder how we even analyze those runbacks. I'm so mad that they didn't get shipped to the other side of the bracket, though I guess that makes bracketmaking kinda impossible if you don't get every matchup.
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I had Pikachu winning first and then MM winning in Loser's because "Revenge of the Noble Nine" sounded like a fun narrative

but as you probably just surmised I have no idea either
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I think almost every close match flips in losers. In Pikachu's case I'm sure he got a lot of votes for novelty's sake that'll dry up in the second meeting.
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just wait til when Samus flips Mario
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LusterSoldier posted...

Leon, why did you call yourself "Yurihart" in that write-up?

there's nothing quite like when Luster doesn't understand a joke

I didn't do that
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LeonhartFour posted...

there's nothing quite like when Luster doesn't understand a joke

I didn't do that

So it appears that Moltar did that against your will.
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https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7358

Link SFFs Ganondorf as expected. It might not be as extreme as it was years ago, but blowouts of that kind just don't happen often these days.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7359

Pikachu beats a Noble Nine character! Either Mega Man is on the lower end of the totem pole, or Pikachu is stronger than like half the Noble Nine if you think MM is in the middle of that pack. His performances against near-elites/elites like Yoshi and Zero foreshadowed this, because it turns out those showings were around what Mega Man would do against them.

Crew Predictions: 106/122

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Monika: 104
transience: 103
Kleenex: 98
Leonhart: 97
Guest: 93

Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience gets the point for Link.

transience: 30
Kleenex: 29
Guest: 27 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (4), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96, RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235, DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k, BT, paulg235, TsunamiXXVIII, ctesjbuvf)
Monika: 21
Leonhart: 17
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tennisboy213 posted...

damn, sorry for stealing the guest spot from someone who would have picked Pikachu

So...me, then.

It turns out only one other Oracle even picked the Pikachu win. I hesitate to even call it an "upset" because the Second Chance brackets, for which this is Round 1 and therefore we can be certain that the winner's percentage and the loser's percentage will add up to 100%, said that Pikachu was a 63.55% favorite!

That part actually does surprise me. I had been pretty blustery beforehand, but as the match neared, even I was nervous about Pikachu's chances against Mega Man. It served me well though as it resulted in an Oracle pick just 0.01% off of perfection!

Yeah, I'm really ecstatic about that. Can you blame me? Normally when I make "ridiculous" predictions (compared to the rest of the board), I'm way off base. I finally got one completely, totally right!
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I picked Pika in my Second Chance Bracket. But then I picked Bowser today, so whoops.
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LusterSoldier posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

there's nothing quite like when Luster doesn't understand a joke

I didn't do that

So it appears that Moltar did that against your will.

Just Monika.

Legends Bracket: Round 1 Solid Snake vs. Zelda

Monikas Analysis

member 2005? https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2102

Frog in 2004
Bowser in 2005

...Okay I actually thought there would be more super close matches than that but whatever. Snake was constantly getting threatened by strong-non Noble Nine characters, especially in his pre-Brawl days. Once he became infused with the spirit of Nintendo though, he rocketed from the bottom of the Noble Nine to near the top. His last contest result put him as the #2 character on the site, keeping Link to only 53.5%.

Were five years removed from that though, and the landscape has changed. Metal Gear Solid has fallen in strength across the board, and The Legend of Zelda received Breath of the Wild. Zelda has looked on that Noble Nine level this contest with strong wins in all of her matches so far. The Noble Nine isnt unbreakable as we just saw with Mega Man/Pikachu. Pikachu also looked great all contest and he backed it up against MM. Zelda has looked even better than Pikachu! If Link could beat Snake, whats stopping Zelda?

Well...the fact that shes still not Link. Snake has much less of a reason to fall off the face of the Earth since hes still hanging around with his Smash buddies, which is keeping him relevant. Now, if Snake has fallen back to the weaker Noble Nine, then Zelda has a great shot at winning. I can see it happening, but Im not banking on that. I still see Snake as one of the stronger members of the group. Itll say a lot if Zelda comes really close to the upset (as in shes essentially stronger than like half the Noble Nine), but I believe shell fall short of winning.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: If you're having a bad day, you can always come to me, and I'll talk to you for as long as you need.

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Snake 51%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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transiences Analysis

I've been holding this one in for a while, but I think it's time to let it out. I think Solid Snake is going to *suck* this year, relative to expectations. Let's go through the noble nine (still alive, will never die, etc) and see what they've done since 2013:

Link: Smash 4, Breath of the Wild
Cloud: Smash 4, FF7 remake (trailer, but as we know, that's all you need)
Seph: technically the FF7 remake, but he hasn't been seen yet and also, has kinda sucked?
Samus: Smash 4, new 3DS games, Prime 4 announcement (the trailer is gonna drop during the contest -- believe)
Mario: goddamn everything, but especially Mario Odyssey
Crono: ABSOLUTELY NOTHING, and he's probably not that great this year (I don't believe in Bowser and think his Kirby match is BS)
Mega Man: Mega Man 11, Smash 4
Sonic: Sonic Mania, Smash 4
Snake: umm....?

Look, The Boss got murdered by Zelda and Ocelot almost lost to a trailer character (not even a good one) and got demolished by Ryu. Metal Gear has been put through the shredder the last 5 years. MGS5 looks awful and Quiet almost made a Kingdom Hearts side character look good. Metal Gear Survive, the less said the better. Solid Snake's big advantage from 2006-2013 over the lower NN has been his relevance compared to faded 90s icons and his amazing Brawl appearance. His best case is that he's in Smash 5, but so is literally everyone and his appearance hasn't been anything notable yet. I think Snake falls back down to where he was back then - hanging with the Sonics and the Cronos of the world. Maybe a slight half step above them, but well behind Mario.

So, Zelda. I just can't *quite* get there with her. I think she's legit, but I wonder how legit. She got to abuse Square and Metal Gear, neither of which have really impressed me this year. Squall and Aerith both looked kinda bad. I just feel like she's not a 'real' character and that people won't vote for her when she's up against a true icon like Solid Snake. I do think she makes it close, though -- you just don't kill Nintendo in a setting like this. If Snake gets above 60%, throw everything I said out the window.

transience's prediction: Snake with 54.69%

Leonharts Analysis

Well, after what weve seen so far, you have to give Zelda a pretty strong chance of at least keeping it close, if not outright winning. Now Im one of the few remaining who still believes in Snake. He has one really huge reason to hold up that Big Boss and Ocelot dont. People are actually hyped about him coming back to Smash. Metal Gear Solid as a franchise may be irrelevant these days, but Snake himself is relevant again for the first time in quite a while. I think that helps him.

Plus, Snake has been well above Mega Man and Crono the last few contests, so he has some room to drop off and still be strong enough to win this match. Besides, if its a close match, youve gotta favor Snake. Weve seen him clutch it out in the end more than once. How many clutch Zelda performances can you even name? Go ahead. Ill wait.

Leonharts Vote: Solid Snake

Leonharts Prediction: Solid Snake with 54.41%
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Kleenexs Analysis

Well, we just saw the Noble Nine get broken* a day ago, could it happen here again?

I dont think so. Zelda looked great in the main bracket, no doubt. Totally crushing Squall and Aeris is no joke. Snake is no Mega Man, though. Metal Gear may have not looked great so far this year, but I think Snake is probably immune to that as hes pretty much his own entity at this point. Im not going to go as far as to say Zelda is a fraud, but Im not sure I buy her supposed strength this year yet. I sort of wonder if she was just acting as something of a Link proxy in his absence, sort of like how we saw Majora win GotD. I think hierarchy takes over here, and Snake probably puts a stop to this nonsense. Then again, I also thought Mega Man would do that to the rat and he didnt so who knows.

Kleenexs Prediction: Snake with 55%

Guests Analysis - paulg235

We've just seen a Noble Niner in Mega Man fall to a Non-Noble Niner in Pikachu and I honestly believe we can see it again tomorrow with Zelda and Snake. It feels really weird saying that given how Snake was the clear #2 character behind Link in 2013 (disregarding Draven shenanigans) and had looked legit in contests prior, beating Sephiroth in 2010 and looking great in 2008. But one cannot ignore the red flags that have gone off during the course of the contest. Metal Gear on the whole has looked lacklustre (for reasons I believe to be linked to what I wrote later in this write-up). Ocelot almost lost to Dedede, Big Boss looked unconvincing against Crash (and his performance against Red looked worse when Alucard beat him easily), The Quiet looked like garbage, and The Boss looked against Zelda.

Speaking of the Hyrule princess, that crushing performance over Squall was serious business. Just compare it to how Snake has done against Squall over the years.
Zelda (2018): https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7342-division-5-semifinal-squall-vs-zelda
Snake (2002 and pre-KH1): https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/955-east-division-round-1-solid-snake-vs-squall-leonhart
Snake (2006 and post-KH2): https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2539-patriot-division-round-2-solid-snake-vs-squall-leonhart
Snake (2010): https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3848-gear-division-final-solid-snake-vs-squall

And I usually not someone to use heavily adjusted x-stats, but just for kicks;
Snake (2013c) has a strength of 47.55 against Base Link.
Squall (2013c) has a strength of 37.97 against Base Link.
Snake wins with 60.07% of the vote!

Outside of 2002, Zelda just went and did better than Snake ever could against the FF8 lead.

Zelda's performance over Aeris this year is also impressive given how that match went 12 years ago.
2006: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2549-triforce-division-final-zelda-vs-aeris-gainsborough
2018: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7354-division-5-final-zelda-vs-aerith
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It is very clear that this Zelda is a completely different beast to the one that fought Snake back in 2005 when both characters looked awful in their match pics. Breath Of the Wild is probably the main reason why she has boosted as much as she had.

And what has the Metal Gear franchise done within the past 5 years? Metal Gear Solid V/Ground Zeroes? Remember the outcry when Metal Gear Survive was announced, or how Konami refused to allow Hideo Kojima to appear at that Game Awards show and the host called them out on it, or when they announced Metal Gear Solid 3 pachinko remake? Oh, Snake returns to Smash Ultimate. Whoop-de-doo, where was he in the last game?

I know we all want to see Snake finally topple Link, but personally the more I think about it, the more I think Zelda should beat Snake here. We've been talking about how Sonic could lose against Zelda. Never mind him, THIS is the big upset Zelda is gunning for here. I expect this match to be close, but I'm going all in on the Hyrule Princess.

My Prediction: Zelda (50.22%)

Crew Consensus: Snake CQCs Zelda
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MasterMoltar posted...

Ocelot almost lost to a trailer character (not even a good one) and got demolished by Ryu.

I can't blame you for mixing up Ocelot with Commander Shepard since they essentially had the exact same two matches this year but Ocelot lost to MMX

also once again our percentages are super close
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whew

thanks guest
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The Mana Sword posted...

whew

thanks guest

I'd like to remind you that I was the only one who called Geralt beating Bayonetta when the entire crew went for her.

Don't count your chickens before they hatch...

Edit: Typo.
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the puppet thinks he's a real boy now does he
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Zelda > Snake is an upset worth losing a bracket for.

Aren't the FF characters in KH 3? I haven't watched any trailers though.
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Safer_777 posted...

Aren't the FF characters in KH 3? I haven't watched any trailers though.

After everything you've seen so far do you think that actually helps them?

Snake losing here would kill my second chance bracket, but I honestly think he'll be more comfortable than predicted here.
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holy zeldafear

squall sucks now guys
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transcience posted...

holy zeldafear

squall sucks now guys

that's what I've been saying the whole time!

you'd think people would listen to the Squall fanboy

even I'm not hyping up Zelda to be super strong to make him look better
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wait what zeldafear

we all have like the same prediction
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tran and leon have very different writeups but the same percentage

no one reads the writeups
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transcience posted...

holy zeldafear

squall sucks now guys

Squall sucks, but Zelda projected through Aeris and Ramza makes her look very scary.
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you know who else probably sucks more than they did last time

Ramza
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poor ramza
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transcience posted...

holy zeldafear

squall sucks now guys

But so does MGS

Solid Snake isn't MGS anymore
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LeonhartFour posted...

you know who else probably sucks more than they did last time

Ramza

Why? Now that we have a wider view of the bracket and have seen most of the results, pretty much every FF character outside of Squall (and to a much lesser degree, Auron) has looked static.
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Because the gap between Aerith and Ramza is noticeably bigger than it was in 2013, and it's more likely that FFT continues to become more cult and unknown than that Aerith has gotten a lot stronger.
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Lopen's Unofficial Analysis x1

Zelda v Snake
I basically agree Snake probably isn't going to be great this year. However, I also think Zelda probably isn't quite as strong as Squall and Aeris would imply. What this means is that while Snake should be vulnerable to humiliations, Zelda isn't quite the one to exploit it. Pikachu or Kirby in this slot absolutely.

I will say that if this match were in Mega Man's slot (and I saw the future and knew Pika would upset Mega Man in the normal timeline) I'd feel a bit more iffy about it. Novelty factor is probably missing on this upset though so Snake should eke one out.

Snake with 52.88%
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Legends Bracket: Round 1 Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Auron

Monikas Analysis

hey finally a new 1v1 match

I dont think theres much of a reason to think Auron pulls off the upset here. He struggled throughout his division, and there werent any killers in it. Meanwhile, Sonic should be stronger this year going off of how well the other Sonic Team characters performed. This was already projected to be an easy Sonic win, and I think hell do a little better than expected since I dont think highly of Aurons division at all.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: Life moves quickly, but try not to speed past everything or else youll miss out!

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Sonic 59%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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Leonharts Analysis

This is actually an opportunity for Sonic to look good against an established veteran character for a change! Sonic is coming off of his biggest game in many years, and Auron was probably the least impressive division winner. Not necessarily the weakest, but definitely the least impressive. Hes not going to be riding high on a wave of momentum here.

Of course, watch Sonic still look like crap anyway and established that hes pretty much boned against Snake next round and then against Zelda in the losers bracket!

Leonharts Vote: Auron

Leonharts Prediction: Sonic the Hedgehog with 57.10%

Kleenexs Analysis

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3290-division-8-round-2-sonic-sandbag-auron-sub-zero

Auron wins, next.

Okay, probably not. Who knows where Sonic actually is at this point, but I dont think Auron really poses much of a threat. Auron has looked fine this year, but not like a Noble Nine breaker* and considering he was never at that level to begin with, Sonic would have to have dropped pretty hard to give Auron a shot here. Blue streak speeds by.

Kleenexs Prediction: Sonic with 57%

Lopen's Analysis:

To most people, this match is a boring one. To me? This contest is Sonic's time for redemption. All the creatures of the planet earth have boosted. From bandicoots, to dogs, to apes, and of course as we just saw, to rats.

Who is our strongest creature of the planet earth before this contest? That's right. SONIC SPEED. Built noble nine. Built fast. Blue streak speeds by with super high percentages and people will say Auron has DROPPED!!

Auron has not DROPPED!! This percentage is not an illusion. This is raw power. Sonic will look geared to take on Link after this grand entrance. And he will be. Because he is a creature of earth realm. HogFAQs is coming.

Bet on SONIC SPEED.

Lopen's Prediction:
SONIC SPEED with 64.64%

Crew Consensus: Sonic races on
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I hate hogfaqs
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did transience get deleted from the game
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I'd fill in for him but well I can't this time

He can have my superfluous Snake/Zelda prediction
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