Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 88888888888888888888888~

(+) Yeah! (+)

RIP Noble Nine
---

transience posted...

man, Zelda. you go girl. looks like the NN might actually break once and for all with no more possible excuses.

I have no idea what to do with Sonic/Zelda, with the loser facing Snake

Zelda is going to stomp Sonic. Not even based on the Snake match - Sonic is really sucking against Auron
---

Oh my god that topic intro. Hang in there. Moltarnika youre amazing.
---

Zelda/Sonic feels potentially really weird
---

transience posted...

Zelda/Sonic feels potentially really weird

does it? Zelda put up 60% on Squall and Sonic might do 55% on Auron...
---

Sonic vs Zelda is a SFF match if Link vs Sonic tells us anything so indirect comparisons are kinda moot anyway
---

Oh wow just coming back for the first time since the contest resumed and holy crap Pikachu and Zelda
---

we all admit that Mario vs. Sonic would not go as expected, yeah? I don't see why Sonic/Zelda would be much different in that regard.
---

I think Mario would SFF Sonic into the dirt, personally.
---

we'll find out when Sonic beats Zelda!
---

Smart man

Subscribes to SONIC SPEED
---

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7360

Cloud doesn't have any trouble with Alucard, but this is still a really good showing from Alucard here. Either he's way up there in strength now (which also brings a lot of his division up) or Cloud isn't the top Noble Nine character he used to be.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7361

Crono does as expected against Bowser. Bowser didn't look like a Noble Nine killer in the main bracket, and Crono had reason to regain some strength after seeing CT and its characters get stronger. Therefore, we end up with this result.

Crew Predictions: 108/124

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Monika: 106
transience: 105
Kleenex: 100
Leonhart: 99
Guest: 95

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Kleenex gets the point for Cloud, and spooky96 gets the point for Crono.

transience: 30
Kleenex: 30
Guest: 28 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (4), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96 (2), RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235, DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k, BT, paulg235, TsunamiXXVIII, ctesjbuvf)
Monika: 21
Leonhart: 17
---

I guess these matches just drive home that the gap between the Noble Nine and the rest of the field is as small as it's ever been

makes Cloud and Crono look amazing now too

(or Alucard and Bowser look bad)
---

I wonder if MOMENTUM is actually working this year despite it not amounting for jack in 05 or 06.

Or smart voter faqs I guess
---

I dont think momentum is a thing unless you score some kind of unconscionable upset. 2B was the closest weve seen to that. this or pikachu might be second.
---

I thought the break would kill momentum

but yeah I do think a lot of voters just want the Noble Nine to lose for the heck of it at this point

makes me even more excited about Tifa/Samus and Mario/Seph tomorrow

will Seph become the "plucky underdog" of the Noble Nine because he was put in the main bracket?
---

paulg235 posted...

The Mana Sword posted...

whew

thanks guest

I'd like to remind you that I was the only one who called Geralt beating Bayonetta when the entire crew went for her.

Don't count your chickens before they hatch...

Edit: Typo.

Well son of a gun
---

no, people will be furious that cloud won yesterday and vote for Mario in droves to stop the ff7 menace
---

Eh Geralt almost certainly had some of momentum against Auron (that or he's just not linear). No way his 8 pack is that good.
---

LeonhartFour posted...

will Seph become the "plucky underdog" of the Noble Nine because he was put in the main bracket?

I hope so. Seph > Link it's finally time
---

out of curiosity, whats the biggest comeback weve seen this contest?
---

Pretty sure it was Tifa/MMX.

X's lead peaked at 469.
---

alright, so I guess this technically isnt out of reach for snake yet, but zeldas gotta be like 80% to take it at this point
---

Well, Snake's trying to make a run at it!

Dunno if he'll be able to catch her or build enough of a lead of his own even if he does.
---

ugh come on zelda dont blow this
---

zeldas got this. its like an old link/cloud match.
---

Legends Bracket: Round 1 Samus Aran vs. Tifa Lockheart

Monikas Analysis

Tifa has stepped to Samus twice in these contests.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2555
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5259

The first match has been looked at as an over-performance by Tifa since Samus had her less-recognizable at the time Zero Suit picture. With a normal picture in 2013, she did much better, but lol threeways.

Tifa has looked good this year with a strong win over Mewtwo, and close wins over MMX and Luigi. Now, after Pikachu beat Mega Man, Tifa beating MMX is a little less impressive to me, but those wins still put her in that elite category.

The problem is you need to be better than elite to beat Samus. Ive seen Samus as one of the stronger members of the Noble Nine, and her contest history has backed that up. Shes lost to Clinkeroth in their prime and Mario and thats about it (dont come at me about 2013 lol threeways). Tifa would have had to seriously beat down her opponents for me to give her a chance here.

Tifa may overperform again, and with the Noble Nine not looking great so far, it seems like the gap between them and the elites has gotten smaller. Ive still got faith in Samus until she shows weakness to someone outside the top guys.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: Any vote for strong women in games is a good vote! I could beat both of them though because Im the strongest, ahaha!

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Samus 54%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
---

transiences Analysis

Look, I believe in Samus. I think she's going far this year. She's unfortunate to draw Mario so soon because I think she could beat just about anyone besides him and Link this year. Heck, Ridley almost beat Big Boss. She's got to be the favourite over Snake, especially after Zelda is pushing him around today.

But there's just something about Tifa, both this year and against Samus. I would feel better about Samus/Mega Man than Samus/Tifa, and Mega Man X already pretty much beat Tifa or at least equaled her. There's that 2006 match that nearly broke the Noble Nine thanks to what most people think is a huge pic factor -- and yeah, of course, but I also just think Tifa matches up super well against Samus. She kinda neutralizes her advantages.

I'm still picking Samus for sure but man, I just don't feel right here. If this was just two pure strength numbers I'd probably go for about 59%. With this one, though, I'm going much lower.

transience's prediction: Samus with 52.11%

Leonharts Analysis

With each passing match, it seems like the gap between the Noble Nine and everyone else is significantly smaller than its ever been. It also feels like people are actively anti-voting the Noble Nine to see them lose, especially when you look at some of these board votes. So could this finally be the chance for Tifa to finish what she started in 2006?

Yeah, why not. Nothing in this contest makes any sense anymore! Luigi > Samus is finally proven true 15 years later! Seriously though, from what weve seen, not much would shock me anymore. I feel like Samus would have to be way ahead of the non-Link members of the Noble Nine to beat Tifa convincingly, and I doubt she is now. It just feels like its Link and then everybody else now (and even then, Link is closer relative to the field, too. Its just not close enough to matter). So while Samus probably wins, Tifa probably looks really good in defeat for the third time.

Leonharts Vote: Tifa Lockhart

Leonharts Prediction: Samus Aran with 51.51%
---

Kleenexs Analysis

Wait why is Samus a 2 seed? The seeding in the Legends bracket it weird. Anyway, last time we saw this match, Tifa got extremely close to being the first person to break the Noble Nine*, but there some weirdness with the pictures going on there, and franky, I never bought that match as being indicative of Tifas strength. Now, shes definitely good - shes impressed me this contest, and her only real losses have come at the hands of Noble Nine members. So theres no question shes legit. I just think, that given how good Nintendo has looked this year, and how average Square as looked, its a real tough sell to ask her to replicate the kind of showing she had bad in 2006. I definitely think she can come out of this match looking pretty darn good, but Id be fairly surprised if she actually pulled off the upset.

Kleenexs Prediction: Samus with 54%

Guests Analysis - MetalmindStats

I really think theres something to be said about the Legends flopping left and right, something which has made people start to doubt this match. I would guess its more than just a coincidence concerning washed-up characters. That being said, however, Samus is still gaming royalty someone whose respect and iconic status outweighs their lack of recent relevance. The very fact of Samus being a Nintendo character facing a non-Nintendo foe is also important here, which represents the inverse of the common element in the two biggest embarrassments of Legends so far.

Thats not to say that Tifa wont overperform here, because she will, just like the last two times these two fought and, for that matter, like all the times Tifa faces off against fellow female characters. It just means that you shouldnt expect another repeat of their epic 2006 duel that was probably caused in large part by ZSSs lack of recognizability plus potential obvious winner fatigue, or for that matter the current Snake/Zelda match. Instead, this looks to be more of a Sonic/Auron type of match, with what should be a close, but comfortable Samus win that will still make her look off.

Prediction: Samus Aran wins with 54.24%

Crew Consensus: Samus charges up and blasts Tifa away
---

whoa, we are low!
---

I just realized I'm going to be away for the next few days and I have no idea what matches I'm actually going to have to do writeups for, so this will be fun
---

Hard for me to see this going below 54% for Samus. She is really strong.
---

KamikazePotato posted...

I think Mario would SFF Sonic into the dirt, personally.

I wouldn't say "into the dirt". Mario vs. Sonic was one of the great rivalries of the early nineties. Two gaming icons whose peaks were relatively close to each other.

Mario would win, though. He's both more nostalgic (80s vs. 90s) and more current (stayed strong in the late 00s and throughout the 10s while Sonic's new games were largely panned until very recently.)
---

Mario Vs. Sonic should've been done in 2002.
---

lordjers posted...

Mario Vs. Sonic should've been done in 2002.

Mario would've won then, too.

Sonic's best chance would've probably been in 2003, maybe 2004 as well. We've all seen that the hype of a new game is often more valuable than the game itself. Mario upset Cloud in 2002 on Sunshine's release date; once Sunshine turned out to be unpopular, it probably would've been Mario's most vulnerable time. But not too far after that, because you'd have to catch Sonic while his most recent game (outside of the Advance games) was Adventure 2. Once Heroes came out, the window would've closed, and once Sonic '06 happened, it would be a long time before Sonic would be challenging anyone in the Noble Nine.

That's the true irony of that "hype > released games". Sonic's best contest was in 2006, the same year as his most hated game--but that game didn't come out until the holiday season, once the contest was over. It very well may have been cause for his strength in the '06 contest. Remember, we call it "Sonic '06" because the game's actual name is literally just "Sonic the Hedgehog". It should've been his return to greatness, and instead it was his biggest disaster.
---

Mario would SFF Sonic absolutely.
---

Im excited to see the picks for the other match tonight. I wonder if we get a crew curse
---

transcience posted...

Im excited to see the picks for the other match tonight. I wonder if we get a crew curse

Well I guess you just spoiled yours.

I think Leon is on the other side. well see!
---

me and Garetha are doing well as Guests!
---

KamikazePotato posted...

Hard for me to see this going below 54% for Samus. She is really strong.

I mean Snake was just as strong if not stronger
---

I don't see Mewtwo beating Squall.
---

Snake had reason to drop, or at least evidence that he would. Samus...well, I wouldn't be upset if she did bad, but it would be a weird result.
---

Well, what has Samus done to keep her propped up other than a distant promise that Metroid Prime 4 might happen someday?
---

Nintendo being stronger than ever.
---

Hey man, Samus in 2013 most recent game was Other M, and she looked strong as ever that year! Samus is a character based entirely on design and Smash Bros, and that never goes out of style.
---

Alternately: Away from the Wii U.
---

KamikazePotato posted...

Hey man, Samus in 2013 most recent game was Other M, and she looked strong as ever that year! Samus is a character based entirely on design and Smash Bros, and that never goes out of style.

alas poor Kirby
---

If Mewtwo = Squall, what does Samus get on Tifa?

Well, it doesnt go out of style until the Hierarchy is in play

ZSS is the only way Tifa can win because it would invoke cup size Hierarchy
---