Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 88888888888888888888888~

(+) Yeah! (+)

LeonhartFour posted...

did transience get deleted from the game

Screenshot of Doki Doki Analysis Crew:

https://imgur.com/a/2AIzpKk

gee thanks moltar
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LeonhartFour posted...

did transience get deleted from the game

who is transience

LeonhartFour posted...

Because the gap between Aerith and Ramza is noticeably bigger than it was in 2013, and it's more likely that FFT continues to become more cult and unknown than that Aerith has gotten a lot stronger.

Actually yeah, I just checked and you're correct. Alas, poor Ramza
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FINE MOLTAR I'LL POST IT MYSELF (this analysis kinda sucks anyway)

transience's analysis

Auron sucks! That's my analysis here. I've been underwhelmed by him the last two rounds and his FF8/10 brethren tell the same tale. Dude had a cakewalk of a bracket and shouldn't be here. He's the worst of the big bracket.

Sonic's probably around where he's always been, helped out by Sonic Mania and the weird icon boost. I think Sonic goes kinda big here compared to what we had been seeing. If Sonic struggles to get 55 here, we should expect bad things in the future.

transience's prediction: Sonic with 59.88%
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Yes, poor Ramza...
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LeonhartFour posted...

did transience get deleted from the game

ahaha whoops~

(legit accident because I was in a rush and had to go)
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"accident"

it's too bad -- or maybe good, depending on your viewpoint -- that we couldn't see Sonic/Auron before Zelda/Snake. Sonic/Auron feels a lot like Zelda/Squall to me. if Sonic can do a similar number then I'd say the Squall/Zelda result is more Squall than Zelda. if Auron keeps it close, I'd give Zelda a ton of credit for blowing Squall up.
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in other words, if Zelda/Snake is close and Sonic/Auron is not, I'll say that Snake sucks. if Zelda/Snake is close and Sonic/Auron is close, I'll give Zelda credit and look super forward to Sonic/Zelda.
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neeeeext
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snaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaake
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oh hey zelda's making a match of this

I don't believe it though
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Zelda's making a match of it like Bowser was against Crono.
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soniiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiic
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Speaking of making a match of it:

Blue Streak speed backwards
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whoa Auron too. every match is close these days!
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So it appears that Auron actually hasn't dropped in strength at all. Auron had to maintain his full strength to be threatening Sonic like this.
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Just how strong is Rosalina

I guess we live in a world where Geralt would get like 55% on Sonic now !
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what the

if auron doesnt collapse after this i'm legit shook
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er, 45% rather
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auron rSFFed geralt obviously
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Man just how low will be Auron's prediction percentage here.

Man, Magus looks amazing right about now.
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So let's say this now before we start moving goalposts all day long: what end result here is good for Sonic? Auron probably loses to Bowser and Bowser got 45% on Crono.
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I still think Sonic pushes this out a good bit. 55, maybe 56.

I believe in Snake a little bit more having seen Auron's performance though.
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The Mana Sword posted...

I guess we live in a world where Geralt would get like 55% on Sonic now !

Bandwagon factor! We've seen it plenty of times before.
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Forget about Geralt or anyone else in that trainwreck of a division

Sonic (2013c) has a strength of 41.30 against Base Link.
Sub-Zero (2013c) has a strength of 29.94 against Base Link.
Sonic wins with 63.75% of the vote!

Sonic needs like 56% on Auron to reach this standard.
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!
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Hey KP, what did your KP-stats predict for these two matches?
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so uh

zelda vs sonic who you got
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this year i think more than any other bracket voting is real noticeable
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The Mana Sword posted...

so uh

zelda vs sonic who you got

Forget that

Zelda vs Samus who you got

zelda being the 2nd strongest character was joked about when she was killing squall

....could it actually be a thing
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WarThaNemesis2 posted...

zelda being the 2nd strongest character was joked about when she was killing squall

....could it actually be a thing

I, for one, was not joking at all.

I just lost faith when she failed to double Aerith!
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also congrats Leon maybe squall doesnt suck!!
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Mac Arrowny posted...

Hey KP, what did your KP-stats predict for these two matches?

Snake/Zelda is N/A because most of us expected Snake to drop, but we didn't know how much. If he hadn't dropped, he gets like 57% through Aeris (welp).

If Sonic is static (which is more reasonable), he should get around 57% here.
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redrocket posted...

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

zelda being the 2nd strongest character was joked about when she was killing squall

....could it actually be a thing

I for one, was not joking at all.

I just lost faith when she failed to double Aerith!

if i had taken the crew spot i'd have said aerith was the worst possible result because it didn't make squall comically weak AND it killed hopes of zelda > snake

lol
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hmmmm

I still dont think Zelda wins this
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Zelda always wins
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Snake is very unlikely to lose this match. Once you get past the "what" factor of Snake struggling with like...anyone who isn't Link or Mario, you look at it and see a Nintendo character barely managing a lead in the Power Hour.

With that said, "what".

EDIT: Meant to say that Snake is unlikely to lose. Oops.
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I think Zeldas got like 10 more minutes before her power hour ends. then its Snake time
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i made this gif but i guess it's no longer relevant.


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You never know. This match is super close.

still waiting for that power hour to end
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ZenOfThunder posted...

i made this gif but i guess it's no longer relevant.

hahahahahaha
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Cross-posting from the Stats Topic

KamikazePotato posted...

So I looked at the vote totals for each match, the split between Registered/Anonymous voters in each one. General takeaways I found:

1. There is a small correlation between the number of voters and the number of Anonymous voters. Higher Vote Totals = A Higher % of Anonymous Voters (by a little). However, as the vote totals only rise slightly as the contest goes on, this doesn't amount to much and it's honestly hard to tell if there's even a correlation.
2. There is a much bigger correlation between the length of the contest and the % of Anonymous voters. The longer the contest goes on, even despite the number of voters not necessarily increasing very much, a larger portion of them end up being Anonymous voters. The first two matches had less than 50% of the voters be Anonymous; by the end of the main bracket, the Anonymous voters generally made up about 53% of all voters.

So what does this mean? Well...the day of Cloud/Alucard and Crono/Bowser got the standard number of vote totals and 53.3% of voters were Anonymous. So the week break doesn't look like it's done too much damage to the natural contest momentum.

However! It affected Link/Ganondorf and Mega Man/Pikachu quite a bit. You may be surprised to hear that, despite the supposed rallies going on, those matches received less Anonymous Voters than the next day, both in the percentage and the raw amount. There were less Registered Voters as well. This implies that the week break affected the voter turnout for Link/Ganondorf and Mega Man/Pikachu...especially among Anonymous Voters, who likely weren't as aware of when the contest was coming back as the Registered Voters. So, theoretically speaking, there will be more Anonymous Voters when Mega Man and Pikachu have a rematch. And Mega Man is more popular among Anonymous Voters.

tl;dr - Stats predict that Mega Man has the edge going into his salty runback, as there will be more Anonymous Voters this time around.

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man, Zelda. you go girl. looks like the NN might actually break once and for all with no more possible excuses.

I have no idea what to do with Sonic/Zelda, with the loser facing Snake
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