Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 88888888888888888888888~

(+) Yeah! (+)

It wasn't ever going to be something you can glean anything from because Ganondorf crumples whenever any respectable Nintendo or Nintendolike opponent comes across him aside from Samus who has been suspicious in those situations as well. Sprite doesn't help but it wasn't going to be an accurate estimate regardless.
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Man I wish Vivi was here instead. No weird drama or arguments. Ganondorf continues to suck.
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Samus still beat Ganon pretty well though. basically the same as this result.
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basically, it'd be different if Ganon came out blowing people up and then flopped here. but he's not really been that great this year. I tried to prop him up based on Zelda too but one got 51% on Snake and another got 52% on Vivi. they're just not that close.
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Samus is on another level than any of the guys we're talking about. She beat Mega Man easily when MM was coming hot off of his clutch win against Charizard and this year she's projected to get like 61% on Luigi.
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Unless Snake is actually weak now, and Auron is gonna 60-40 Sprite Snake.
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oh right sprite Snake

why hasn't anyone ever just used the MGS1 in-game model
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I don't agree that Ganondorf hasn't looked good. His only bad match is the Chun-Li one.
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KamikazePotato posted...

I don't agree that Ganondorf hasn't looked good. His only bad match is the Chun-Li one.

The 52% on Vivi wasn't that convincing.

edit: Ganon's only good match apart from destroying Neku was his 56% on Dante, but I think Dante probably fell.
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Vivi crushed DK who crushed Leon/Tidus.

Just did some match and if you set Tidus=Yuna, Ganondorf is currently projected to beat Bowser by a little bit. We'll have to see how the numbers shake out by the end of today.
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KamikazePotato posted...

Vivi crushed DK who crushed Leon/Tidus.

Just did some match and if you set Tidus=Yuna, Ganondorf is currently projected to beat Bowser by a little bit. We'll have to see how the numbers shake out by the end of today.

Yeah, 2010 xstats had Mega Man over Ganondorf (he got a sprite in his loss too) with 58%, which seems almost entirely in line with the result here.

I think maybe Ganondorf and Mega Man have both mostly stayed constant since then while Pikachu got a massive boost.
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squexa posted...

KamikazePotato posted...

Vivi crushed DK who crushed Leon/Tidus.

Just did some match and if you set Tidus=Yuna, Ganondorf is currently projected to beat Bowser by a little bit. We'll have to see how the numbers shake out by the end of today.

Yeah, 2010 xstats had Mega Man over Ganondorf (he got a sprite in his loss too) with 58%, which seems almost entirely in line with the result here.

I think maybe Ganondorf and Mega Man have both mostly stayed constant since then while Pikachu got a massive boost.

So if night vote pushes MM down and he has like 56% by the time this ends, this can be attributed to a bit of everything (MM weakening, Pikachu boosting, Ganon staying constant or deboosting a little).

any thoughts on Alucard/Bowser? Im more convinced that the Kirby match is bs each passing day.
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Alucard being super strong is weird but I guess it redeems Cloud and Div 3 a little?

Then again div 3 doesn't exactly deserve redemption.

Still think Kirby was rSSF'd though.

Makes Cloud look really good, that's for certain.

Wonder how well Cloud/Crono lines up. If Crono gets like 48% on Cloud then we get to throw transitive results out the window, which could be fun.
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KamikazePotato posted...

Makes Cloud look really good, that's for certain.

Wonder how well Cloud/Crono lines up. If Crono gets like 48% on Cloud then we get to throw transitive results out the window, which could be fun.

Isn't that right about what today predicts? Within 2% at any rate.
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transcience posted...

any thoughts on Alucard/Bowser? Im more convinced that the Kirby match is bs each passing day.

I don't think Kirby looked very impressive in retrospect. Guile was an unknown. Phoenix was SFF'd, which is easily possible since all his games debuted on DS or 3DS. Isaac is a character from a niche, neglected, super dead series and has no reason to be anything other than garbage these days.
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The nature of the Phoenix Wright fandom and fervor for his character makes it hard for me to really buy Phoenix Wright getting SFFed.

Then again I would've said the same about Kirby to some extent and that (apparently?) didn't stop Bowser so who knows.

Unless Phoenix Wright gets a lot of votes just on his reputation as a "neat character" from fan osmosis or things like Marvel 3 rather than people having actually played his games.
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y'know, maybe Alucard's not out of this yet
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Huh, is Alucard going to do this?

How did Kirby lose to this?
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The Hierarchy is a hell of a thing.
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this makes crono look pretty weak tbh. compared to what people thought at least
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LeonhartFour posted...

Huh, is Alucard going to do this?

How did Kirby lose to this?

Kirby's lost to Alucard too...!
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so, uh

Tifa or Bowser (since Alucard and Bowser are looking essentially the same)
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Answer to that is basically "Bowser or Luigi?"
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Safer_777 posted...

Sonic is a cheater confirmed. Or Tidus. Or both!

We caught vote stuffing at a 2:1 ratio for Tidus.

The Mana Sword posted...

I wonder how long peoples memories are in this contest. Maybe theres enough bitterness over Mega Man barely loosing against Pikachu that hes getting a bit of a bump in the runback.

Guess we can see if Snake manhandles Auron tomorrow too.

Isn't that a thing we'd expect him to do anyway? Looking at how Zelda actually had a worse prediction percentage in Second Chance than in initial brackets, it's clear that MGS is still very much beloved. Zelda's just boosted insanely; it wouldn't surprise me at all if Snake isn't as weak as last round made him look, and we've just still been underestimating Zelda.

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

transcience posted...

any thoughts on Alucard/Bowser? Im more convinced that the Kirby match is bs each passing day.

I don't think Kirby looked very impressive in retrospect. Guile was an unknown. Phoenix was SFF'd, which is easily possible since all his games debuted on DS or 3DS. Isaac is a character from a niche, neglected, super dead series and has no reason to be anything other than garbage these days.

Except that seems to be the exact opposite of what these results suggest. Estelle-Isaac was a classic "DAT TOP OPTION" match, right down to the seeding (they tend to be more common in 7-10 matches than 8-9s), and like so many of the DAT TOP OPTION matches of the past, the top option in question had boobs while the bottom option didn't. (Yes, I know, the matches were arranged left/right this contest. Changes nothing.) Or at least, it would've been if your assumption that Isaac and his series were nothing but garbage was correct. 64.63% suggests otherwise! Not that it should really matter, because 70-30 was a pretty hard barrier to clear in this contest. That's the power of SFF! And then Kirby broke 68% on Phoenix. Pretty impressive!
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TsunamiXXVIII posted...

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

I don't think Kirby looked very impressive in retrospect. Guile was an unknown. Phoenix was SFF'd, which is easily possible since all his games debuted on DS or 3DS. Isaac is a character from a niche, neglected, super dead series and has no reason to be anything other than garbage these days.

Except that seems to be the exact opposite of what these results suggest. Estelle-Isaac was a classic "DAT TOP OPTION" match, right down to the seeding (they tend to be more common in 7-10 matches than 8-9s), and like so many of the DAT TOP OPTION matches of the past, the top option in question had boobs while the bottom option didn't. (Yes, I know, the matches were arranged left/right this contest. Changes nothing.) Or at least, it would've been if your assumption that Isaac and his series were nothing but garbage was correct. 64.63% suggests otherwise! Not that it should really matter, because 70-30 was a pretty hard barrier to clear in this contest. That's the power of SFF! And then Kirby broke 68% on Phoenix. Pretty impressive!

Garbage is not all created equal. Isaac is garbage; the fact is that Estelle was super obscure turbofodder garbage. Her boobs are probably the reason she didn't do even worse than that. Besides, there's no evidence yet to suggest DAT LEFT OPTION exists and it is not logical to assume it does.

And 70% on a fodderliner is not that convincing. If Isaac is worth 20% on Base Link then Kirby is worth like 34% on BL. Not a safe bet to beat Bowser by any means, and certainly not Crono.
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So I would guess neither of you have actually played Trails in the Sky, or else you wouldn't postulate that Estelle got a noticeable boost from her sex appeal.

Also, Tsunami, Allen corrected the second chance stats, and over 42% of the site actually picked Zelda to beat Snake.

Whether or not people have played the game, a cute anime girl making a :D face is bound to draw some extra votes.
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Sure, but that's kind of a different thing than pinning it on TJF.

so much for the plan. thanks for the two points, crew
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Crew Predictions: 111/128

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Monika: 109
transience: 108
Kleenex: 103
Leonhart: 102
Guest: 99

Crew Accuracy Challenge: paulg235 gets the point for Zelda, Leonhart gets the point for Sonic, MetalmindStats gets the point for Samus, and Monika gets the point for Mario.

transience: 30
Kleenex: 30
Guest: 30 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (4), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96 (2), RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235 (2), DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k, BT, paulg235, TsunamiXXVIII, ctesjbuvf, MetalmindStats)
Monika: 22
Leonhart: 18
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And so the last thing to truly get excited about for me falls. What a bad contest
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Losers Bracket: Round 1 Solid Snake vs. Auron

Monikas Analysis

Snake
Legends Round 1 - 49.68% vs. Zelda

Auron
Legends Round 1 45.68% vs. Sonic the Hedgehog

So I thought Snake/Zelda would be very close, but I didnt think Zelda would actually be on the winning end of that. I also thought that it would be less of Snake dropping in strength and more that Zelda is really strong now.

That being said, if Snake is in that middle Noble Nine range, he should do better on Auron than Sonic did. Based on how Aurons division looked, Sonic only winning with 54% looks kind of bad for him. If Snake cant do better than that, then Id say the same thing about him. It would show that even he isnt immune from the MGS drop.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: Dont get upset over sprites, think of it as the characters showing a new side of themselves, ahaha!

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Snake 58%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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transiences Analysis

Outside of another bad sprite picture, it's hard to see Auron doing well here. Snake's always done a number on Squall and Auron is a slightly weaker Squall, this year notwithstanding (but also maybe this year as well). Snake probably cleans up here.

I want to say that this match is more about Zelda than anything else, to see if she's legit, but I'm not sure if it really reveals anything intimate. If Auron can get as close as he did to Sonic then that's eye-opening about Snake's strength, but if Snake goes big here I'm not convinced it's all that impressive. I don't think a lot of Auron and I think Sonic looks pretty bad as a result. Hopefully our picture creators don't do too much of a number on Snake, but at this point in the contest's life, with this old hat audience, I have a hard time believing that pictures mean a whole lot.

transience's prediction: Snake with 59.63%

Leonharts Analysis

This match seems pretty straightforward to me. Even if Snake is weaker these days, hes been clearly stronger than Sonic ever since being announced for Brawl back in 2006. This should also give us a good idea of what Zelda vs. Sonic should look like. If Snake blows Aurons doors off, Sonics in big trouble. Its kind of a shame Auron has fallen off to the point that he cant really provide any interesting matches himself though.

Leonharts Vote: Solid Snake

Leonharts Prediction: Solid Snake with 57.57%

Kleenexs Analysis

Here we have Noble Nine break #2 (Im currently writing this ~2 hours before the end of the Snake/Zelda match, it looks like Zelda has it locked up but who knows). Its still tough to say if Zelda just boosted through the roof or if everyone she faced has fallen off the face of the planet. Its probably a combination of both, but regardless of how far Snake may have fallen, I dont think Auron has a shot, even if he looked kinda good against Sonic (or does Sonic suck? probably!). Anyway, Snake can take some time and lick his wounds with what should be a pretty easy bounce-back match for him.

Kleenexs Prediction: Snake with 55%

Crew Consensus: Snake puts Auron to rest.
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Lopen's Unofficial Analysis x2

Auron v Snake
I've said it time and time again but I really think Solid Snake is being overrated this contest due to resting on his laurels, and that Sonic is likely stronger than him outright this year.

So now that we've established that Snake's ceiling here is like 54, we add Solid **** to the mix? Solid Snake's chances drastic go down. Expecting a Snake Frog 04 style "why is this so close" affair with Snake squeaking by

Solid Snake with 51.87%

Seph vs Tifa
In the days of 2005 round 2, we'd be hyping a Tifa win here. But yeah, Mario is thought as clearly above Samus at this point, so this should be pretty straightforward. It is worth saying (and I'm sure everyone will) that these two had a 1v1 before and Tifa came out looking really good, so I expect that to happen even moreso this time. She is the plucky underdog after all.

Sephiroth with 51.87%
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what if we added kurt angle to the mix

Auron with 133 and a third
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MetalmindStats posted...

So I would guess neither of you have actually played Trails in the Sky, or else you wouldn't postulate that Estelle got a noticeable boost from her sex appeal.

Also, Tsunami, Allen corrected the second chance stats, and over 42% of the site actually picked Zelda to beat Snake.

Oh, the second chance stats were wrong? I know they seemed weird but this is the first I'm hearing of a correction.

*checks corrected stats*

WOW THAT IS EPIC. I had already calculated the number of second chance brackets, and it was an even number. Though when it gets right down to it, the number is also low enough that if it were an odd number, it would show up as 49.99%/50.01% anyway.

That's legitimate. That is a perfect 50-50 prediction for Crono-Bowser.
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TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Oh, the second chance stats were wrong? I know they seemed weird but this is the first I'm hearing of a correction.

Yes, I filled out a feedback ticket to get Allen to look into the Second Chance stats. Not all of them were incorrect, though. He actually admitted that Pikachu's number was correct, which was surprising. Board 8 got utterly humiliated by the casuals on Mega Man/Pikachu. The BOP had Mega Man with 82.50% of the brackets on this board.
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Moltar, you listed me twice on the guest accuracy list. I should be on 3.

Proud to have called the Zelda upset while the crew stuck with Snake. Second time this contest I've been on the right end of the prediction whereas the crew went opposite. :)
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Losers Bracket: Round 1 Tifa Lockheart vs. Sephiroth

Monikas Analysis

Tifa
Legends Round 1 - 41.07% vs. Samus Aran

Sephiroth
Legends Round 1 40.75% vs. Mario

Hierarchy?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3849

Hierarchy. Though Mario just managed to swing like 8943% aganst Seph the other day so maybe this could change too. I highly doubt it though, as inter-series hierarchies are usually way more stable. While these two may be close in strength indirectly, between FF7 fans, I dont think their preference has changed too much over the years.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: Not a fan of FF7? Try DDLC instead!

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Sephiroth 53%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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Guest's Analysis - Luster Soldier

We've got another rematch from 2010 taking place, and this rematch could be somewhat debatable now. Tifa's result against Sephiroth in 2010 could have been inflated slightly due to the site being upset about Sephiroth knocking out Missingno one round earlier, so the 2010 result might not be an accurate measure of Tifa's strength relative to Sephiroth in that year. The rematch is more up in the air this time due to Cloud and Sephiroth looking weaker this year. Before 2010, a match between these two would likely involve some SFF, but Sephiroth being much weaker should also reduce his ability to SFF weaker characters from the same game.

Going on known results in this contest, Mario's 59.25% on Sephiroth and Samus's 58.93% on Tifa would suggest Sephiroth defeats Tifa. Mario has more reason to boost than Samus because Mario's strength is more closely tied to the general status of Nintendo on the site. When Nintendo is doing poorly on the site, Mario won't be as strong. And if Nintendo is strong on the site like it is right now, it reflects itself in a stronger Mario. There's also Mario Odyssey, which may have given Mario another possible reason to boost. It seems unlikely that Samus is indirectly stronger than Mario, which is really the only chance of Tifa > Sephiroth happening.

Rallies won't be a factor in this match unless it's very close. Even then, you're quite limited on where to succesfully rally for Tifa. Hentai rallies might be the only effective way to rally for Tifa when she's facing Sephiroth. Rallying for Tifa in a general Final Fantasy community like the various subreddits simply won't work. There will be too much backfire in any general Final Fantasy community for a Tifa rally to work there.

Luster Soldier's Bracket and Second Chance Bracket: Sephiroth

Luster Soldier's Prediction: Sephiroth - 53.70%

Kleenexs Analysis

Weve seen this match before a number of times, and Sephiroth always comes out on top. I dont see any reason for that result to change. I do think Tifa will end up performing a little bit better than she has in the past, but not enough to really pus for the upset. So Sephiroth gets to move on and get trashed by the other Nintendo character in the bottom part of the bracket next round.

Kleenex's Prediction: Sephiroth with 55%

Leonharts Analysis

I guess you could look at their matches against Samus and Mario and determine who is stronger based on that, but I think this is a situation where that blasted HIERARCHY would intervene. Its just hard to imagine a scenario (short of a rally) where Tifa beats Sephiroth here. Not that I would be opposed, of course, but I do think Mario is stronger than Samus both directly and indirectly, so either way, Seph wins. I dont think he applies any major SFF here though.

Leonharts Vote: Tifa Lockhart

Leonharts Prediction: Sephiroth with 55.55%

transiences Analysis

Don't worry, Zen, I've got you.



transience's prediction: Sephiroth with 57.67%

Crew Consensus: slay sephy slay
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Hierarchy.
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Guests letting us down. Don't sign up if you aren't gonna get your write-ups in the day before (especially at this stage when there are only 4-6 signups).
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whoa, im always higher than everyone this round
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paulg235 posted...

Guests letting us down. Don't sign up if you aren't gonna get your write-ups in the day before (especially at this stage when there are only 4-6 signups).

read again!
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Heh, I noticed Moltar listed the write-ups for Tifa/Seph in the order of lowest prediction to highest prediction. Of course, that wouldn't have been possible if Moltar didn't have the lowest prediction in this match since his write-up always comes first.
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transcience posted...

paulg235 posted...

Guests letting us down. Don't sign up if you aren't gonna get your write-ups in the day before (especially at this stage when there are only 4-6 signups).

read again!

The order was different than usual, my bad.

but doesn't explain Auron/snake.
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Just Moltar.
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