Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1295

(+) Yeah! (+)

Hoo boy, just woke up and read through the thread. ME3 debate in 2018. This is why I love contest season.
---

ZenOfThunder posted...

should have listened to Ulti and gone full-Femshep

Because "generic Western woman" has been faring much better.
---

It'd definitely be a departure from the norm, but I can't help but wonder how using an N7 logo instead of default Shep would influence the results.
---

I love how generic essentially means any semblance of realism
---

Not necessarily that, but just looking like a "typical" human being without much in the way of a standout appearance.
---

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Oxbridge posted...

Do we go down to 2 matches a day tomorrow, or after round 2 is complete?

After round 3.

Oh snap so 4 a day still?
---

Lol quiet

It boggles my mind how this site doesn't like MGSV. It's literally the only generic open world game that is polluting the gaming space which is any good.

And yes I'm also including BotW in that
---

one reason to dislike MGSV is that it's incomplete, literally. I thought the gameplay was really good, best in the series in term of mechanics but the story was not what you would expect from a MGS game.
---

Same here. I found the ending unsatisfactory and confusing. It introduced a few massive plot holes in the overall series continuity, and now that Kojima is gone, they'll likely never be reconciled.
---

Hailing MGSV while calling BotW generic is hilarious. BotW massively expands on what made MGSV great.

Also I saw someone talking mess about Lucina and Shulk and they both strongly overperformed based on 2013.
---

BotW was a good game ruined by bullshit mechanics. Take away weapon durability and add in more traditional Zelda items and dungeons and that game would have been amazing
---

Can we make a separate topic for the 100000000000th debate on the merits of BotW please thanks
---

woke up to see K Rool gave up the ghost

:(
---

That stuff about Peru is weird considering that country has favored the losing character for like 95% of the matches or something.
---

Match LXV: (1) Dante vs. (9) Lightning

Current Contest Performance

Dante
Defeated Cuphead, 71.59% - 28.41%

Lightning
Defeated Chloe Prince, 74.19% - 25.81%

Analysis

Welcome to round 2. Some people were impressed by Lightnings performance in the first round, but I feel that was more due to Chloe Price being weak. At best, Lightning could be stronger than expected because Donkey Kong did so well last round meaning he could have gotten a boost in 2013 and it was hidden by SFF. Of course, with the way Nintendo has performed I imagine some of that boost was more recent.

Regardless, Dante shouldnt have too much trouble winning this match. I still give him an outside chance at winning the division, but for that to occur he needs to put up decent numbers, likely well into the 60s.

charmander6000s Bracket: Dante > Lightning

charmander6000s Prediction: Dante wins, 63.27% - 36.73%




Match LXVI: (12) Chun-Li vs. (4) Ganondorf

Current Contest Performance

Chun-Li
Defeated Spyro the Dragon, 56.17% - 43.83%

Ganondorf
Defeated Neku Sakuraba, 78.60% - 21.40%

Analysis

Ganondorf had a great performance against Neku which foreshadowed the kind of first round Nintendo was going to have. A second strong performance against Chun-Li will likely seal this division for Ganondorf.

Chun-Li did as expected against Spyro. Between Ken and Chun-Li I always felt that Ken would be slightly stronger though I would keep Chun-Li in the same range, though with Super Smash Bros. Ultimate that may become different. Regardless, with Ganondorf looking stronger I doubt Chun-Li will be able to match the 36% Ken got in 2010.

charmander6000s Bracket: Ganondorf > Chun-Li

charmander6000s Prediction: Ganondorf wins, 68.23% - 31.77%
---

Match LXVII: (3) Vivi vs. (11) Aya Brea

Current Contest Performance

Vivi
Defeated Yu Narukami, 74.89% - 25.11%

Aya Brea
Defeated Victor Sullivan, 59.56% - 40.44%

Analysis

Vivi put up strong numbers last round, but I wouldnt say they were good enough to push him into elite status like his performance in 2013 suggested. Yu did have reason to be a bit stronger given that Persona is on the upswing so if Vivi can have a similar performance he could still easily reach the division final.

While Aya did reach the second round with relative ease that is more due to Sullys weakness than her strength. Given her performance in 2013 there is definitely a good chance that we may see Vivi score a higher percentage her than what he got in the first round. She only got 27% against Sora and even if there is some kind of Square SFF I imagine Vivi would do the same to her.

charmander6000s Bracket: Vivi > Aya Brea

charmander6000s Prediction: Vivi wins, 76.31% - 23.69%




Match LXVIII: (10) Donkey Kong vs. (2) Leon Kennedy

Current Contest Performance

Donkey Kong
Defeated Tidus, 56.93% - 43.07%

Leon Kennedy
Defeated Dragonborn, 68.68% - 31.32%

Analysis

Remember when we were impressed by Leons performance against Dragonborn? Not only did he drop to a more expected number by the end of the match, but newer characters have since been flopping everywhere. Overall Resident Evil characters have had a decent contest so far.

However, I am quite nervous about this match. If Donkey Kongs performance against Tidus was all of him boosting then he should have a legitimate shot against Leon. While the board was a bit down on Final Fantasy at the beginning, I feel the prevailing theory is that they have stayed mostly constant. Both Yuna and Auron performed okay, though one match was against a new character while the other was against a character whom has likely boosted. I think Leon has this, but Donkey Kong could be going for a third match against Vivi.

charmander6000s Bracket: Leon Kennedy > Tidus

charmander6000s Prediction: Leon Kennedy wins, 53.17% - 46.83%
---

I don't really expect Leon to break the 53% barrier after the first few hours.

Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if Donkey Kong pulls the upset here.
---

lordjers posted...

That stuff about Peru is weird considering that country has favored the losing character for like 95% of the matches or something.

Actually, that would make perfect sense if it's a vote stuffer. No reason to stuff for the character that would win naturally, right?

I mean, the alternative is that Peru's tastes run diametrically opposite to the majority of voters to a ridiculous degree. I don't know enough about South American culture to know if they share our love of an underdog, but that's definitely more of an American thing--in Europe, the idea is that it's fine if underdogs get a meaningless victory here and there but when they start going on deep runs, it's upsetting the natural order of things.
---

The bigger issue is that it's unlikely that ~100 people from Peru vote in these things given our vote totals
---

Hey Luster, have you reported the Peru issue to SBAllen?
---

I haven't reported the Peru issue just yet. It's also the weekend, so Allen won't get a chance to read any message sent to him until next Monday at the earliest. I plan to use this time to farther research the issue.

charmander6000 posted...

The bigger issue is that it's unlikely that ~100 people from Peru vote in these things given our vote totals

And the regular polls running during the contest aren't showing elevated vote totals from Peru. They're in line with what they should get based the overall vote totals of the regular polls. The only exception was a regular poll from 2 days ago where the Peru stuffer voted for Pokemon: Let's Go, Eevee / Pikachu! to give it 94.57% in Peru (that's a minimum of 92 votes from Peru).
---

Advokaiser posted...

I don't really expect Leon to break the 53% barrier after the first few hours.

Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if Donkey Kong pulls the upset here.

I dont know if DK pulls the upset, but I do expect him to scare us early with the huge Nintendo vote.

We could end up with yet another match of a Smash character dominating until the dead zone, with the UK vote deciding the winner.
---

LusterSoldier posted...

And the regular polls running during the contest aren't showing elevated vote totals from Peru. They're in line with what they should get based the overall vote totals of the regular polls. The only exception was a regular poll from 2 days ago where the Peru stuffer voted for Pokemon: Let's Go, Eevee / Pikachu! to give it 94.57% in Peru (that's a minimum of 92 votes from Peru).

Just for fun, possible vote totals consistent with 94.57% less than 10000 are multiples of 92, 221, 3186, and 3407.
---

Guys, what number does Dante need to put on Lightning for Cuphead to be equal to Chloe Price?
---

does this new Kingdom Hearts trailer do anything for Sora?
---

Nope
---

Congratulations to Aqua for now being tied for 2nd most wins all-time by a Kingdom Hearts character, along with Riku, Roxas, Kairi, and Ansem.

Sorry, Axel.
---

How unfamiliar I am with Donkey Kong - I always assumed King K. Rool was another monkey like Donkey or Diddy, just even lower in the totem pole than Diddy. lol
---

so did you assume the "K" stood for "Kong" to get around copyright issues

King Kong Rool(s)
---

also both Joel and Ellie started off very slowly and gradually got stronger as the match went along

almost a rise to heaven situation, except they were losing
---

LeonhartFour posted...

Congratulations to Aqua for now being tied for 2nd most wins all-time by a Kingdom Hearts character, along with Riku, Roxas, Kairi, and Ansem.

Sorry, Axel.

Aqua gonna go for three!

KOS-MOS not even blowing out Ellie is bad news!
---

Ellie > Aqua isn't that hard to fathom
---

LeonhartFour posted...

also both Joel and Ellie started off very slowly and gradually got stronger as the match went along

almost a rise to heaven situation, except they were losing

well Ellie has 60.79% in the UK, so i guess TLoU has a good Europe vote.
---

LeonhartFour posted...

Ellie > Aqua isn't that hard to fathom

ya well tell that to testya nomura
---

LeonhartFour posted...

Congratulations to Aqua for now being tied for 2nd most wins all-time by a Kingdom Hearts character, along with Riku, Roxas, Kairi, and Ansem.

Sorry, Axel.

That's some kind of fuzzy math.

I mean it's technically true because Riku never actually got first place in a match during fourways, but he reached the second round both times and the third round in one of them!
---

fuzzy math? is it 2000 again?
---

LeonhartFour posted...

Ellie > Aqua isn't that hard to fathom

Aqua's going to stomp KOS-MOS, CALLING IT NOW
---

The Owner of FF9 posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

Ellie > Aqua isn't that hard to fathom

Aqua's going to stomp KOS-MOS, CALLING IT NOW

Aqua is almost 10% lower in the UK then globally, trends are starting to appear.
---

im317 posted...

The Owner of FF9 posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

Ellie > Aqua isn't that hard to fathom

Aqua's going to stomp KOS-MOS, CALLING IT NOW

Aqua is almost 10% lower in the UK then globally, trends are starting to appear.

Is Xenosaga more popular in the U.K.?
---

wasn't Xenosaga II the only game that released in Europe or something dumb like that
---

LeonhartFour posted...

wasn't Xenosaga II the only game that released in Europe or something dumb like that

Yeah, Episode I and III were never released in Europe, but Episode II was released there. Very unusual.
---

The Owner of FF9 posted...

im317 posted...

The Owner of FF9 posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

Ellie > Aqua isn't that hard to fathom

Aqua's going to stomp KOS-MOS, CALLING IT NOW

Aqua is almost 10% lower in the UK then globally, trends are starting to appear.

Is Xenosaga more popular in the U.K.?

its comparing trends. Ellie rose over time as Europe woke up, well Aqua doesn't appear to do so. meaning KOS-MOS needs a smaller lead after the first hour to hold on next round.

thought i suppose it could be a result of KOS-MOS not being as strong in Europe as opposed to Ellie being strong in Europe.
---

my word Vivi

LOL Lightning weaker than Cuphead

Ganondorf looking vulnerable...!
---

Vivi and Dante looking good after the first minute.
---

Neither had to face a Nintendo character.
---

Saw a lot of ties pressing f5 over and over. But Leon got this in the end for sure.
---

COME ON Lightning!
---

Ganondorf is the most surprising result to me after three minutes.
---

Vivi > Ganon ?

finally, i have actual reason to believe in dante next round

(probably not)
---