Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1295

(+) Yeah! (+)

The league of Draven has folded.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis, and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages
---

At least tomorrow should be interesting. Anyone think King K Rool might actually rival Shepard seeing how the contest has gone so far? I dont see Quiet being a threat to aqua sadly and go go KOSMOS. Drake looked pitiful so what chance does ellie stand to even get 35%?
---

I'd take Shepard > Ocelot and Dedede > K. Rool without thinking much about it, so I don't see that match being close.
---

This is about the right percentage for a weak a** LoL character. Really irritates me that griefers took over the last contest though.... :/
---

Draven is now winning in four countries: Peru, Belarus, Zimbabwe, and Myanmar.
---

Wreath posted...

At least tomorrow should be interesting. Anyone think King K Rool might actually rival Shepard seeing how the contest has gone so far? I dont see Quiet being a threat to aqua sadly and go go KOSMOS. Drake looked pitiful so what chance does ellie stand to even get 35%?

Shepard should at least break 65%. He almost doubled Olimar last time and Olimar kind of stood out in the match picture. Plus Pikmin 3 had just come out IIRC.
---

@LinkMarioSamus I will give you a hint. King K Rool is in Smash. Shepard is not. And yeah I know Olimar is in Smash too. But ME Andromeda hurt ME a lot.
---

Shepard is also not in Andromeda.
---

True that. Still I think he can do it. Barely.
---

Makes you wonder what a non antivoted noble nine character would of had put on Draven here (Samus, Snake and Mario)

How high into the 90% + range would they be at?

Bolto4 posted...

Makes you wonder what a non antivoted noble nine character would of had put on Draven here (Samus, Snake and Mario)

How high into the 90% + range would they be at?

Snake 99.9%
---

Bolto4 posted...

Makes you wonder what a non antivoted noble nine character would of had put on Draven here (Samus, Snake and Mario)

How high into the 90% + range would they be at?

Mario does get anti-votes, but Snake or Samus might have had a chance at 95%.
---

Xeybozn posted...

Bolto4 posted...

Makes you wonder what a non antivoted noble nine character would of had put on Draven here (Samus, Snake and Mario)

How high into the 90% + range would they be at?

Mario does get anti-votes, but Snake or Samus might have had a chance at 95%.

Snake & Samus

The people's champs.
---

I keep thinking the percentage can't realistically keep going lower but then it keeps going lower.
---

Ammy has been averaging 89% since 6 A.M. so it can certainly still keep going lower.
---

Even Link's biggest win was around 91%.
---

Draven still has 0% in North Dakota.
---

Safer_777 posted...

Even Link's biggest win was around 91%.

91.35% to be precise
---

In a way, this was a good opponent choice for Draven to look terrible

Who on Earth is gonna anti-vote such a good dog
---

By the way, what does "rise to heaven" mean? What's that a reference to? No entry on the B8 Wiki for it, far as I can tell.

@The_Owner_of_FF9
It's what FFVII's percentage used to do back in the day; it had a terrible board vote and bad power hour but spent the rest of the match increasing its percentage, typically ending around its highest of the match.
---

woke up fearing draven would have gained some ground and he managed to lose even more

lmfao
---

wasn't the early registered vote a higher % then the unregistered for Draven?
---

im317 posted...

wasn't the early registered vote a higher % then the unregistered for Draven?

I think so. They were most likely all bracket votes (mine included).
---

It's just so good. 88.5 should be Ammy's target here.

Maybe I'll go play Okami now.
---

I'm disappointed.
Draven had a 1 update, but still no 0 I think.

Still laughing at Draven
---

I think the answer is yes, but are we passed the point where not even a 2013-esque rally can save Draven?

I'll start laughing when we get there.
---

TheOneAboveAll3 posted...

I think the answer is yes, but are we passed the point where not even a 2013-esque rally can save Draven?

I'll start laughing when we get there.

Technically they can still surpass it with those votals they had, but I don't think there is enough time for it.

And that's if the Subreddit allowed rallies, which it doesn't.

Ultimate Draven swung about 20k votes in 4 hours in both round 2 and the finals.

So it's possible.

Barely.
---

I still can't believe that a character who finished first in the Stats in a contest will finish last in the stats in the next contest! Eh whatever. He won 1 time I guess.
---

This match is cathartic.
---

Has anyone posted a link to the poll on the Subreddit telling them it's by far the biggest blowout in round 1? =p Even though Ammy is doing well, Lara Croft is doing well enough that I'm no longer 85+% confident in Ammy winning next round....

And... dang, it looks like the trends have changed for Sephiroth. I was expecting him to be at like 73% at the end of the day. Strange. Maybe it's because people are forced to force in all matches that Sephiroth was benefitting early on... or something? (honestly, no idea) 70%, though... is not really that impressive. I guess it's a little better than he looked in 2013, but not much.

Also, Richter's doing a bit better than I expected. I guess he's not far from Simon in contest strength.
---

Safer_777 posted...

I still can't believe that a character who finished first in the Stats in a contest will finish last in the stats in the next contest! Eh whatever. He won 1 time I guess.

It will be fun to see how much Draven 2013 gets on Draven 2018. It would also be fun to see how high Link's x-stat will go if we extrapolate from Draven's match this contest all the way up to Link when making Draven 2018 = Draven 2013! Link's x-stat would be something like 500%!
---

Haste_2 posted...

Has anyone posted a link to the poll on the Subreddit telling them it's by far the biggest blowout in round 1? =p

Why would you troll people who can vote us into oblivion?
---

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2009-ruin-division-round-2-kefka-vs-wesker

Different times and not a sprite round, but even so that is not a good look for Sephiorth.

Also Wesker won another update a while ago.
---

KamikazePotato posted...

This match is cathartic.

Glad I'm not the only person to use that word to describe this.

"Glorious" is another descriptor I'd use.
---

@Haste_2 Sephiroth is doing as expected actually. Above 70%. Also someone said that the strongest Draven from 2013 vs Draven 2018 would be around 99%-1%. Now that is something!
---

XIII_rocks posted...

KamikazePotato posted...

This match is cathartic.

Glad I'm not the only person to use that word to describe this.

"Glorious" is another descriptor I'd use.

I messaged a friend that justice is finally being served. The word cathartic was very much used in that conversation.
---

i mean Wesker is a lot stronger now than he was in 2005 (seriously 2005 wesker is pathetic)

still, funny performance to me
---

friendly reminder that Wesker once lost to Lloyd Irving

something to watch for since Ryu is facing Lloyd next...!
---

Safer_777 posted...

@Haste_2 Sephiroth is doing as expected actually. Above 70%.

With a FFVI boost and a FFVII deboost and taking that poll into account, it actually looks even worse. It suggests Kefka > Sephiroth might actually be a possibility nowadays.
---

Wesker in 2005 was before Resident Evil 5, which is what made him worth anything in contests to begin with.

This performance is on part with what Sephiroth would have done in 2013. Which I suppose is bad news if you were hoping he would rebound, but its still Top 10 level strength.
---

KamikazePotato posted...

Wesker in 2005 was before Resident Evil 5, which is what made him worth anything in contests to begin with.

Oh yeah, I'm being facetious, of course. Wesker would beat Lloyd easily now.

I just think Ryu has a good shot at matching or beating Seph's number since Fox got 68% on Lloyd in 2010.
---

Wesker (through Ken) got 36% against Ganondorf in 2010 so this isn't a bad performance. It still puts Sephiroth in noble nine territory, just not 60/40ing the entire bracket except for Link and Cloud.
---

Match LXI: (3) Ryu vs. (14) Lloyd Irving

Previous Contest Performance

Ryu - 2013
Round 1: 56.19% against Yuri Lowell (26.41%) and Face McShooty (17.40%)
Round 2: 14.32% against Draven (66.52%) and Mega Man X (19.15%)

Lloyd Irving - 2013
Round 1: 23.62% against Pikachu (52.93%) and Big Daddy (23.45%)

Analysis

Too bad Ryu got a predictable path this contest as the Smash boost likely would have made things debatable against an elite character. Though there are some people still hoping for the Sephiroth upset. Unless the direct turned GameFAQs into a bunch of haters Ryu will likely continue the trend of all things Smash overperforming.

Tales of Symphonia may have been a board favourite, but Lloyd has never really amounted to much. We saw him getting utterly crushed by Pikachu in 2013 and while its believable that Lloyd may have suffered a bit of SFF due to being pseudo-Nintendo, at this point so is Ryu. I feel there is a decent chance that Ryu will outdo Sephiroths performance against Wesker which will likely cause a lot of people to hype the upset.

charmander6000s Bracket: Ryu > Lloyd Irving

charmander6000s Prediction: Ryu wins, 68.73% - 31.27%




Match LXII: (6) Commander Shepard vs. (11) King K. Rool

Previous Contest Performance

Commander Shepard - 2013
Round 1: 54.01% against Captain Olimar (29.50%) and Kain (16.48%)
Round 2: 41.60% against Aerith Gainsborough (39.64%) and Tharja (18.76%)
Round 3: 11.34% against Draven (44.65%) and Link (44.02%)

King K. Rool - N/A
N/A

Analysis

With Nintendo characters on an upswing and newer characters on a downward spiral even matches like this have gain some debate. There is some limit though. While it is expected that Shepard will drop in strength that doesnt mean hell become fodder. Garrus may have equalled Ramza, but at worst Ramza is high fodder so it is not like he took a huge drop in strength. Regardless, Shepard has shown to be significantly stronger than Garrus.

King K. Rool is here due to being announced for Super Smash Bros. Ultimate. Before the announcement I imagine he would be weak fodder. Diddy Kong was quite weak in 2008, though he did have to contend with Captain Falcon in the match. Even with Ultimate I doubt he would rise above many of the other lower tier Nintendo characters which should place him out of reach of Shepard.

charmander6000s Bracket: Commander Shepard > King K. Rool

charmander6000s Prediction: Commander Shepard wins, 60.12% - 39.88%
---

Match LXIII: (7) Ellie vs. (10) KOS-MOS

Previous Contest Performance

Ellie - N/A
N/A

KOS-MOS - 2013
Round 1: 35.90% against Vincent Valentine (53.50%) and Dunban (10.61%)

Analysis

With The Last of Us performing well during the games contest I suspected that Joel and Ellie would have some strength. Joel proved that is the case by putting up a respectable performance against Ike. If Ellie can be as strong as Joel I imagine the potential for an upset is there. However, I feel Ellie would be a step below Joel, even if she ended up with a higher seed.

That doesnt mean KOS-MOS will get an easy win. If there is any drop in strength by her we could still have a match. I guess one of the positives of GameFAQs being a bunch of old men is that characters from series no longer producing games can still retain their strength for longer. I doubt her cameo in Xenoblade 2 will provide her of any significant boost so shell have to hope she is still at around the fodder line.

charmander6000s Bracket: KOS-MOS > Ellie

charmander6000s Prediction: KOS-MOS wins, 58.58% - 41.42%




Match LXIV: (2) Aqua vs. (15) Quiet

Previous Contest Performance

Aqua - N/A
N/A

Quiet - N/A
N/A

Analysis

Its a bit fitting that the last match of the round was one of the last picks I locked in for my bracket. I ultimately went with Aqua in the hopes that a keyblade would make the match picture. I guess not. Both Sora and Riku underperformed this round though the same can be said about the Metal Gear characters and to make things complicated all of their opponents had reason to be stronger so they may not even be weaker in the first place.

Im quite nervous in backing a PSP character though Aqua has had roles in other games besides Birth by Sleep. It also helps that GameFAQs didnt exactly take a liking towards Metal Gear Solid V, but I feel Quiet was one of the better parts of the game. Im going to stick with my bracket, but I honestly wouldnt be surprised if Quiet easily wins here.

charmander6000s Bracket: Aqua > Quiet

charmander6000s Prediction: Aqua wins, 53.72% - 46.28%
---

In this bracket, who is the median character in strength? Meaning.. the exact 50th percentile character(half would win, half would lose)

Meaning... out of 136 total characters who is the 68th strongest?

Some choices:

Shulk
Lightning
Zidane
Ramza
Revolver Ocelot
King Dedede
Shadow the Hedgehog
Tails
Tidus
Noctis
---

SuperNiceDog posted...

In this bracket, who is the median character in strength? Meaning.. the exact 50th percentile character(half would win, half would lose)

Meaning... out of 136 total characters who is the 68th strongest?

Some choices:

Shulk
Lightning
Zidane
Ramza
Revolver Ocelot
King Dedede
Shadow the Hedgehog
Tails
Tidus
Noctis

Any of them except shulk

Probably still Tidus sadly

Actually I'd say Magus
---

Magus is a good pick. He seems to be right on that line
---

Why couldn't he give Quiet a picture as zoomed out as the Lara Croft pic? It seems like he couldn't have zoomed in any more on her pic for this match and that takes away her best chance at winning