Yeah. The Chrono Cross loss was huge in terms of opening up options here. If Shatter doesn't beat it, it probably wins the contest uncontested. I don't quite think Hope was unbeatable, but an Umineko win against NieR also probably would have given it the win. I'd have given it around an 80% chance of winning the contest, if not higher, had it won that. As it is, I think AT2 and NieR are pretty close to each other in terms of "odds to win" and the East Winner lags them by a bit, but isn't totally out of this yet. (Though I'd argue they almost definitely are if AT2 beats NieR tomorrow)
-- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
Remaining from FS is Triumph and The Plan, with Nightpath on standby. I agree with the sentiment that Barkley just hasn't been challenged yet; the songs are decent, but not champion-caliber, other than Space Jam and jtt.
Ed, where you been? Missing you in b8vgm, (as well pretty much all the rest of y'all.)
I like both round 5 songs tomorrow better than the respective round 6's. Second Tower and Shadowlord are decent, but not turbo-awesome to me. On a personal level, I could take Holy Orders or jtt over them. I know that's not likely to happen for the board vote, but that's why they play the game, right?
Quick look at the East Finals since I more or less covered the West Finals with my "every case" thing.
Guilty Gear X v Frozen Synapse: I'm almost tempted to say an analysis isn't possible because Frozen Synapse only knows how to win and it doesn't matter what it's facing. However, ignoring that... I think at this point it might be safe to say that Frozen Synapse's "style" for lack of a better term, is just pretty liked overall here, and so barring some pretty extreme cases, it's going to be in most matches it's in in some form or another. I think this is the case here too. ...I think this is a toss-up. At first I was leaning Guilty Gear X, but now I'm leaning Frozen Synpase, and now I'm thinking of switching back again. I really have no idea who takes this. Should be a good match.
...And I think with this I can officially say I like the Slot 5 song for everything in the Final Four more than their Slot 6 songs.
After AT2/NieR ends I'll probably take a look at both possible match-ups for the finals there. The alternative is to look at 4 cases again, and I'd rather not do that again. (Spoilers: I think the AT2/NieR winner has the advantage, but I'll try to make it a little more interesting than that)
-- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
azuarc posted... Second Tower and Shadowlord are decent, but not turbo-awesome to me. On a personal level, I could take Holy Orders or jtt over them. I know that's not likely to happen for the board vote, but that's why they play the game, right?
I think The Second Tower is awesome, but Rustling Throb ~Cloche~ (the Alt. option) is miles ahead of it IMO.
Wow, I can't believe that second half for AT2 there. Inwardly I felt that, despite saying NieR had the advantage, that SPHILIA had a fairly good at shot at "winning" the anti-vocals crowd over SotA / Fate, and that if it could do that it'd be in good position to win, but I would never have anticipated it having that kind of finish. I'm thrilled, of course, but wow. That might be the shock of the contest for me so far.
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Winner's Bracket Finals Analysis:
AT2 v Guilty Gear X (The Second Tower v Holy Orders): Both of these matches are rather interesting in my mind. In both of these matches I feel like The Second Tower should have the clear advantage, but both give me some cause for concern, but for different reasons. For Guilty Gear X, it's a little less substantial, as it was Guilty Gear X that sent EXEC_SPHILIA home in VGMC5 with Awe of She. However, I think regardless of my feelings on the songs, The Second Tower is much stronger on the board than SPHILIA, and that it's by far the board's favorite AT2 piece. At the same time, I think that Awe of She is stronger than Holy Orders. That adds up to a match that I have to think The Second Tower takes. But I'm taking nothing for granted here. I do think AT2 would rather face Guilty Gear X though.
AT2 v Frozen Synapse (The Second Tower v The Plan): Again, at the very beginning I'll state that I think AT2 has the advantage here. However, in this event I pretty much have to be nervous by default, because Frozen Synapse just refuses to lose. Now, I have to imagine that The Second Tower is well beyond anything else it has had to face in the contest before. By a wide margin. Nevertheless, Frozen Synapse seems determined to make every match it's in an adventure. Especially its more recent matches where it's taken Perfect Dark and Barkley in extremely close matches. As I was saying previously, it seems that Frozen Synapse's style has been fairly popular. This strikes as a bit of an intangible factor that AT2, and perhaps no OST, can really infringe upon. Frozen Synapse seems to have its core supporters who like that style, and I don't think you're going to find another OST that's going to be able to fight to draw those supporters to its side. I certainly don't think The Second Tower can, at least. That said, I think The Second Tower's high popularity on the board will be enough to carry it through here, but I think Frozen Synapse has, by far, the better chance of leading the East Bracket to victory.
~~~
Overall: Let's just say that while I think AT2 wins both these matches, I'd be surprised if Guilty Gear X pulled off the win, whereas with Frozen Synapse I wouldn't be that surprised. Personally disappointed maybe, but not surprised. It would get me to start wondering what it would take to actually beat it though. I'm fairly certain The Second Tower is one of the more popular songs on the board, so if it fails to take down Frozen Synapse, I'll start wondering just what can. Obviously Scars of Time and Dreams of the Shore, but I'll start wondering about "What ifs" like dreamenddischarger.
-- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
From: Advokaiser | #255 azuarc posted... Second Tower and Shadowlord are decent, but not turbo-awesome to me. On a personal level, I could take Holy Orders or jtt over them. I know that's not likely to happen for the board vote, but that's why they play the game, right?
I think The Second Tower is awesome, but Rustling Throb ~Cloche~ (the Alt. option) is miles ahead of it IMO.
Fun fact: Back when I was "panicking" over AT2's Round 2 and 3 matches (Mostly Round 2 v DKC2, because once Chiru went down I felt Round 3 wouldn't be too much of a problem) I was basically going, "Why, oh why did I not put Rustling Throb ~Cloche~ in one of these slots instead?" (The answer was because I was paralyzed by being aware that there's a sizable portion of the board that doesn't like vocals, and so I wanted to avoid them wherever possible. SPHILIA was an exception because it did fairly well for itself in VGMC5, so I extended it more trust.)
Personally, I like Rustling Throb ~Cloche~ more than The Second Tower as well, but based on previous VGMC results, I don't think there's much argument that The Second Tower is the board's favorite AT2 song, so there was never a doubt in my mind that it would be Song 6. Granted, Rustling throb ~Cloche~ was never in a VGMC, but The Second Tower made the Final Four of the ToC, beat Time of the Dreamwatch, MGS2 Main Theme, and was pretty much the only non-Scars of Time song that Dreams of the Shore didn't completely obliterate. (Everything else it faced got at least doubled. Not that The Second Tower ever truly endangered Dreams of the Shore, but it did at least hold it under 60%, and nearly got itself to 42% for the match) I can't imagine Rustling Throb ~Cloche~ pulling those feats off.
-- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
little salty because in my mind that makes it the FOURTH game that GGX has beaten that it had no business beating, but in the end you have to just appreciate that it did so well in spite of being a game no one has played anyway, that alone is pretty miraculous given how this board tends to be
I'm a little disappointed it came this far to lose to that GGX song. While the GGX song had a decent intro, it kinda felt less cohesive overall.
Still happy it made it this far. I love the Frozen Synapse soundtrack and bought it after a short while of playing the game. The game itself is pretty awesome too; I need to play some more matches.
Only other person who appears to have finished one is Tsunami, whose bracket A looks distrubingly like mine, but calls for a rather remarkable run from a game that lost in W1 for bracket B. Bracket A will be very boring to watch if we're the only two -- it'll be a matter of who wins: Touhou 6 or Touhou 8.
edit: Oh look, Mycro took Neotokyo to win bracket A. There's a shocker. =p And your bracket B winner is...Ecco the Dolphin?? You're the second person I've looked at who gives Sonic 3 one pretty long ride, though. I thought it was an outlier when Tsunami did that.
Bringing this over to the discussion topic rather than the match itself:
Even if it gets that far, winning twice against AT2 is not going to be an easy task. I have a feeling CC will win the first time and drop the second.
It's entirely dependent on the TBA rounds, IMO. I'd be shocked if Chrono Cross drops any of its Song 4-6 rounds. Time of the Dreamwatch x2 is the only real "vulnerable" spot it has, in that Time of the Dreamwatch is the only song there I think can be beaten. And glancing at the bracket, I don't expect it to be all that likely. The Second Tower needed OT to beat it VGMC's ToC. Something like Hope could maybe pull it off, but it's going to just miss a chance to face Time of the Dreamwatch. I disagree on Hope having a shot against Dreams of the Shore. Granted, not much else is going to have a better shot than Hope.
I think there's only 3 places Chrono Cross has a realistic chance of losing, and they're all the rounds that are TBA. Even taking AT2, obviously it depends on how those are going to be run, but I think CC has the advantage.
If we assume it's Song 1 v Song 1, Song 2 v Song 2, etc. here's how I see these stacking up in a direct comparison:
Moon-Dwelling Demon v Magical Dreamers God's Footprints v Girl Who Stole the Stars (Toss-up, maybe slight lean AT2) Waltz of Gears v Life ~ A Distant Promise (Pretty heavy lean CC) Mechanical Maze v Time of the Dreamwatch EXEC_SPHILIA/. v Dreams of the Shore The Second Tower v Scars of Time Rustling Throb ~Cloche~ v Fragment of a Dream (Toss up, lean to CC)
So, really, AT2 desperately wants to catch one of CC's earlier songs because it wants no part of the later ones. Even if we assume it's not necessarily going to be a straight song # match-up, I don't think anything AT2 (or anyone) has can match up against Dreams of the Shore and Scars of Time. The Second Tower is potentially the only one with a shot at Time of the Dreamwatch, although it's plausible in my mind that Moon-Dwelling Demon could make a run at it too. The rest of Chrono Cross's field is definitely beatable, but... let's just say AT2 needs some luck with how those two matches end up being set up if it wants to win.
-- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
I am going to Florida for my sister's wedding for five days. I might be able to get internet there, but in case I cannot or I run out of time, here are my votes for the next five days. I wanted to listen to the tiebreakers in case it came to that, but ran out of time. Hopefully, if one happens, I can catch it on the appropriate day.
azuarc, feel free to copy/paste my write-up for the day in the appropriate topic so people can see and account for my votes.
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November 9th
Roaring Tides (Clannad) vs. Balamb Garden (Final Fantasy VIII) Run Past Through the Plains (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs. till dawn (ClaDun: This is an RPG) Main Theme (Plok) vs. Camanis (Tyrian)
Roaring Tides Run Past Through the Plains Camanis
First match is pretty darn good, I really like both pieces. Roaring Tides surprised me with how much I enjoyed it, and it edges out Balamb Garden by a bit. For the second match, I originally was not planning on using Run Past Through the Plains. However, listening to it again, I find I like it more than I thought I did. till dawn is, in my opinion, a definite downgrade from the piece used in round one, and I really did not care for it. Nice idea with these "for fun" matches. Main Theme did not appeal, and while Camanis is average, it is passable, unlike Main Theme.
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November 10th
Stone Man (Mega Man 5) vs. Air Man (Mega Man 2) Futuremachine (Jets'n'Guns) vs. King Dedede (Kirby's Epic Yarn) Unlimited Moment (Ninja Gaiden II) vs. Industrial Area (Breath of Fire: Dragon Quarter)
Stone Man King Dedede Industrial Area
The first match is sort of iffy all around. Stone Man has some catchy parts, and nothing in particular appeals to me in Air Man, so Stone Man wins by default. The second match, I have to admit, I have a liking to King Dedede's theme overall. I would not be surprised at all if Futuremachine takes this match, and it is a good theme. I just prefer listening to King Dedede by a bit. Third match had a surprise in that I sort of liked Unlimited Moment. Industrial Area is more interesting and it still gets my vote easily, but props to Unlimited Moment for being better than I thought.
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November 11th
Festival of Servants (Castlevania: Symphony of the Night) vs. Examination ~ Allegro (Phoenix Wright: Trials & Tribulations) Mischievous Robot (Cave Story) vs. Slider (Super Mario 64) Route 10 (Pokémon Black/White) vs. Everything in These Hands (.hack//G.U. Vol 1//Rebirth)
Examination ~ Allegro Mischievous Robot Everything in These Hands
Augh, why Festival of Servants? That may be one of my least favorite Symphony of the Night tracks. Examination ~ Allegro is above average, and therefore it wins in this match up. Give Symphony of the Night almost anything else and it probably would have been different for me. Mischievous Robot is sort of catchy, and Slider... well, needless to say, I am still wondering why Super Mario 64's soundtrack got into this contest. Almost anything against Slider would win for me, even Festival of Servants if it came to that. Oddly, I think the "for fun" match pieces are both better than all four of the others. Route 10 is a really nice route piece, but it has the misfortune of being against Everything in These Hands, which is a great track.
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You laugh at my Celtic Guardian, until I use my Scapegoat, and then United We Stand, Mage Power, and 3 Axe Of Despairs, with Gaia Power out. 11900/7800
Pale Watchers (Bastion) vs. Elebit Mischief (Elebits) Cordova Town (Castlevania: Curse of Darkness) vs. Abel's Ark (Xenosaga Episode III: Also sprach Zarathustra) Vendetta Preps (Bully) vs. Jet Set Medley Future (Jet Set Radio Future)
Pale Watchers Abel's Ark Vendetta Preps
Wow, I really wound up enjoying Pale Watchers. I'm not sure what exactly made me like it so much, but it appealed far more than Elebit Mischief. That piece is not bad, it just fails to suit my tastes. For my preference, very easy match. The second match is pretty good. I like Cordova Town, it is definitely an interesting piece. However, I love Abel's Ark, to the point that it wins despite me liking Cordova Town. Vendetta Preps is oddly enjoyable, and Jet Set Medley Future falls into the category of being not my type of music. I have not found any Jet Set Radio songs I particularly care for to this point, this is no exception. It also does not help things by being a medley. In general, I really do not care for medleys. This is actually my least favorite Jet Set Radio track so far, which probably says a lot about how much medleys fail to appeal to me.
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November 13th
Flowers Blooming in the Church (Final Fantasy VII) vs. Predestined Fate (VVVVVV) People of the North Pole (Final Fantasy X) vs. Dr. Wily Stage 2 (Mega Man 3) Deference for Darkness (Halo 3: ODST) vs. Because I Love You (Earthbound)
Predestined Fate People of the North Pole Because I Love You
Flowers Blooming in the Church is a pretty track, though I am a bit puzzled as to why it was chosen over so many other Final Fantasy VII tracks. It might win against some VVVVVV tracks, but Predestined Fate actually happens to be my favorite on the OST, so tough luck with that draw. People of the North Pole is one of the best tracks for Final Fantasy X, in my opinion. Dr. Wily Stage 2 is actually a pretty good Mega Man piece, but it is totally outclassed here. Deference for Darkness managed to bore the heck out of me, and even worse, it's a long piece too. Boring plus long equals augh. Because I Love You is okay. Okay is much better than what Deference for Darkness was.
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How the heck did that break the character limit? Oh well. There you have it.
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You laugh at my Celtic Guardian, until I use my Scapegoat, and then United We Stand, Mage Power, and 3 Axe Of Despairs, with Gaia Power out. 11900/7800
Very general Loser's Bracket prediction: Chrono Cross to win, and then probably destroy AT2 when they meet up. Twice. Honestly, I'd probably say Chrono Cross is the favorite to win the whole thing, followed by AT2, followed by "everyone else," with Umineko probably having the best chance of the remaining field.
-- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
I have to install AT2 as my favorite because it took winners bracket, CC dropped a round to shatter. let's not forget either that mitsuda is a very mainstream game composer and this board loves the niche
The thing about Chrono Cross is that even though it needs to beat AT2 twice is that it has two songs that are pretty much automatic wins. A third that is a coin-flip at worst if faced against AT2's strongest songs, and probably another automatic win if not. It's beatable in the other three locations, but it's still not going to be easy.
It all comes down to how those rounds will play out. I'm fairly sure that once we're told how they will be conducted I could make a fairly accurate prediction of what will happen. AT2's only real chance here is that it has two opportunities to be presented with a favorable match-up. So it can afford drawing Scars of Time or Dreams of the Shore... once, at least.
-- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
scars of time is the only one I consider near automatic, dreams of the shore is beautiful but it is a minimalist down beat song, this board has ADD and can turn on a song like that in an instant even if they'd vote for it otherwise
xp1337 posted... AT2's only real chance here is that it has two opportunities to be presented with a favorable match-up.
This is such a tremendous advantage, though, that I would think AT2 would beat even Chrono Cross. About the only way I would favor CC is if the finals was song 6, and then song 5. Even if AT2 has only a 1 in 3 chance of victory in each round, that still gives it the advantage. Or, if one of the rounds is a virtual automatic for CC, if the other is 50/50, that still gives AT2 the edge.
Basically, the only way I can imagine that the winner's bracket champion would NOT beat the loser's bracket champion is if something semi-ridiculous had bubbled to the top in the WB, and a total overall powerhouse happened to drop a match with an incredibly unlucky draw and still rose to conquer the LB. AT2 may not be in the top 3 in terms of favorites when we started, but it's pretty close, probably 4th actually. I also wouldn't say that CC got a tragic draw against Shatter, either.
My real reason for posting: do people like the idea of the just for fun matches? It gives us something new to look at while we do the also-rans, and you can always ignore it if it's not your thing.
However, because it is "just for fun," I'm not going to take it TOO seriously, and because it's only five rounds at most (and we have six songs,) I might pass over a song here and there or just go to song #2 for tiebreakers or some such. Or I might not. Just trying to cut out the weak links in the more abbreviated format.
Don't get me wrong, I agree that only having to win one of two is a huge advantage. I think where we disagree is where AT2 is starting relative to Chrono Cross. I think it's so far back of Chrono Cross that AT2's advantage doesn't even bring it to breaking even with Chrono Cross in terms of chances to win. That I think AT2 even has a chance at all is how I apply that advantage. If you reversed their fortunes and told me that AT2 had to win twice against CC I'd tell you there was virtually no chance of it.
It is tricky talking about the probabilities though because you haven't revealed how those rounds will go. I've been mostly assuming that it's still going to be Song # v Song #. In which case I think AT2 can only be sure it wins 1 out of 7, and that it's probably guaranteed to lose at least 3, if not up to 4 or 5.
If it's not necessarily Song # v Song # (for instance you choose a random song from AT2 against a random song from CC), I think that probably helps out AT2 a bit, but I'd have to actually think about the probabilities there, but I don't think it hurts AT2.
-- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
My real reason for posting: do people like the idea of the just for fun matches?
I think it's pretty good. If only because I'm interested in seeing how G.U. does, even in its more limited form. The only "bad" thing is that it'll probably suffer from reduced votals, but that's not really a fault with the concept. It'll just obscure how they'd "actually" have performed, but that's not overly important.
-- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
I think AT2 has the best chance, whatever gets out of losers has to win twice and it's proven to be a strong soundtrack as well. CC doesn't have a free ride to the end of losers even...GGX got to winners finals, beating 5 better soundtracks along the way, anything can happen even if it shouldn't.
If only because I'm interested in seeing how G.U. does, even in its more limited form.
Well... this seems to be appearing to set itself up as a major letdown for me! The only consolation prize I have here is that I can keep telling myself, whether its right or wrong, that the "full power" G.U. would have won here. Instead of Everything In These Hands, it would have been Full Force ), and I'm fairly sure Full Force would be noticeably better received, but perhaps that's just me being overly optimistic. Everything In These Hands would still have been on that list, but in a different spot (4th)
...Yes, I do know what my original list for G.U. was, in case you were wondering. >_>
-- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX