Board 8 > Coronavirus Topic 9

(+) Yeah! (+)

if that's your position, i don't think you should say "masks are clearly and obviously NOT the answer," though. that obviously implies "masks are total bullshit, they don't work and we should all throw them in the trash."

a better thing to say is "masks are not 100% of the answer." i don't think any sensible person would disagree with that. nobody is saying "man if everyone would just wear a mask covid would be gone in a few weeks!"

like, i think your facebook post is pretty reasonable and if you would present yourself more like that on the board, you wouldn't get into hostile debates here all the time. whether it was your intention or not, your covid posts on the board for the past few months have generally had a belligerent "lockdowns and masks are dumb and don't work and anyone who thinks they do work is a fucking moron" tone.

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Unfortunately people like him just love to tell you what doesn't work, in their opinion, but offer no actual solutions. Mostly because I think their solution is just to shrug their shoulders because they want a return to normalcy at any cost, even human lives.
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Mr Lasastryke posted...

though. that obviously implies "masks are total bullshit, they don't work and we should all throw them in the trash."

No it doesn't. It implies it is not the answer.

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SmartMuffin posted...

" My position IS that there is no particular evidence that masks are the reason some locations have had more or less cases than others.

This is just factually wrong.

UltimaterializerX posted...

The UN estimates between 100 million and 250 million people starving to death if economies are shut down too long. That's just not okay with me.

This number is misleading, it applies primarily to third world countries.

The United States would have near 0 impact on non covid death rate with an extended shutdown.

Also that near 0 is actually misleading, because the error is pretty much entirely on the reduction in overall death rate side of 0.

UltimaterializerX posted...

The UN estimates between 100 million and 250 million people starving to death if economies are shut down too long. That's just not okay with me.

Predictions and hard numbers are very different, and as much as I hate to say it yes, the most impacted of countries are ones where poverty and hunger is already rampant. Putting the blame on shutdowns is just a way out for people who just want to carry on with life as if everything's normal. Any other time most Americans who don't support the shutdowns couldn't give any shits less about Africa.
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Corrik7 posted...

No it doesn't. It implies it is not the answer.

so masks work but they're also not the answer? you can't have it both ways.

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

so masks work but they're also not the answer? you can't have it both ways.

Lol. You just love to fight.

Something can help but not be the answer.

The answer could be a vaccine. It doesn't mean masks, social distancing, and treatments don't help and should be thrown in the trash.

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my point is that the premise that there's one single thing that has to be "the answer" and everything else is "not the answer" is stupid. if you concede that mask wearing has an effect and reduces the spread (as muffin did in his facebook post), then it's obviously PART of the answer. again, it's just not the ONLY thing that reduces the spread and nobody is saying that it is.

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I don't understand people's objection to just wearing a mask anyway. It's barely a mild inconvenience.

My cousin is claiming that ICU beds are full in Pittsburgh hospitals because two girls on Twitter posted it (she is a nurse also).

I responded with

https://triblive.com/local/pittsburgh-allegheny/upmc-doctors-say-latest-coronavirus-cases-less-severe-in-western-pa/

And she responded that why would the girls lie on Twitter. Lol.

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Corrik7 posted...

You just love to fight.

Keep in mind this is said by someone who has spent almost every day for months posting baiting stories and spinning tales of overreactions he can scoff yet but immediately heads to "well I never said it wasn't serious" or "I never said masks don't help at all" whenever he's questioned.

Yet he's clearly looking for those responses.
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v_charon posted...

Keep in mind this is said by someone who has spent almost every day for months posting baiting stories and spinning tales of overreactions he can scoff yet but immediately heads to "well I never said it wasn't serious" or "I never said masks don't help at all" whenever he's questioned.

Yet he's clearly looking for those responses.

I don't think you can show anything you just said since you literally just made that all up.

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https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/07/13/russia-completes-human-trials-of-covid-19-vaccine/#85dc44e7153b

Take that with a huge grain of salt coming from Russia lol.

https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity

Take that with a grain of salt too.

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well, corrik's "you just love to fight" comment is not wrong. i do much enjoy arguing.

that being said...

Corrik7 posted...

I don't think you can show anything you just said since you literally just made that all up.

lol have you ever seen ANY post muffin made about covid in the past several months?

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

well, corrik's "you just love to fight" comment is not wrong. i do much enjoy arguing.

that being said...

lol have you ever seen ANY post muffin made about covid in the past several months?

He accused me of that, not muffin. He quoted me and said remember this is said by someone that yadda yadda.

That said, I did assume he meant muffin at first too until I read the post three more times and realized he was accusing me of that. Lol.

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I assumed he was talking about Muffin, not you, fwiw.

Mr Lasastryke posted...

my point is that the premise that there's one single thing that has to be "the answer" and everything else is "not the answer" is stupid. if you concede that mask wearing has an effect and reduces the spread (as muffin did in his facebook post), then it's obviously PART of the answer. again, it's just not the ONLY thing that reduces the spread and nobody is saying that it is.

It's weird that it falls to me to explain the basic concepts of linear regression, but fine, here goes.

Let's say that scientists are working to answer the question "Why do people in country X seem to get lung cancer more than people in country Y?" They do some studies and they determine that the following factors contribute to whether or not an individual person gets lung cancer: Smoking, Environmental Pollution, Occupation, Diet, and Exercise. Five factors that contribute. So based on that, it's fair to say that "exercising prevents lung cancer." And if we were to notice that Thailand has more cases of lung cancer than Bolivia, we might say "Maybe Thailand should exercise more so that they can have lower rates of lung cancer like Bolivia does."

But wait... it turns out those five factors do not contribute to lung cancer equally. Let's say that the scientists discover that smoking contributes 50% to lung cancer risk, environment contributes 25%, occupation contributes 15%, diet contributes 9%, and exercise contributes 1%. It's still technically true that getting enough exercise "helps" prevent lung cancer. But it's also of completely trivial importance compared to smoking, environment, and occupation. If it turns out that Thailand has more smokers, worse pollution, and more people in high-risk occupations, it's not even worth taking the time to even look at whether or not their rates of exercise compare favorably to Bolivia. We need to focus on the things that actually matter a lot, not the things that matter only a little.

There's little to no data that suggests masks and social distancing matter a lot. Only a small amount of data to suggest they matter a little. And not much of that really... most of the mask/distancing stuff is "common sense" rather than data driven (and I'm pro-common sense... up until it is disproven or made doubtful by actual data!) For as long as they're the only things we're aware of, they're probably worth doing for certain individuals (particularly those at high risk) but almost certainly not worth mandating/requiring. What we really need to do is figure out what the actual important factors are.


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SmartMuffin posted...

There's little to no data that suggests masks and social distancing matter a lot

This is false.

Next.

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No it isn't. Stop lying to promote panic and fear.

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Yes, its false. It was your lie. It is false.

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SmartMuffin posted...

No it isn't. Stop lying to promote panic and fear.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext#%20

Analysis of 172 studies says they help. Of course they help if everyone is using them and properly.

There is no use if some are not using them or using them improperly.

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That has nothing to do with the claim at hand.

Show me evidence that jurisdictions with mask orders outperform jurisdictions without them.

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SmartMuffin posted...

That has nothing to do with the claim at hand.

Show me evidence that jurisdictions with mask orders outperform jurisdictions without them

No. Show me an article saying it doesn't.

SmartMuffin posted...

That has nothing to do with the claim at hand.

Show me evidence that jurisdictions with mask orders outperform jurisdictions without them.

It doesn't matter because it is an issue of compliance or not. Having an order means shit if there isn't 100% compliance.

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SmartMuffin having to move goalposts because his argument is shit and not actually backed up by fact?

Why, I never

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Hong Kong

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StealThisSheen posted...

SmartMuffin having to move goalposts because his argument is shit and not actually backed up by fact?

Why, I never

This made me laugh

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No. Show me an article saying it doesn't.

I don't have to show you an article. I can show you actual numbers. Belgium has 844 deaths per million. The Netherlands has 358. Do they have radically different mask policies?

If not, then something else is the cause of the discrepancy.


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SmartMuffin posted...

I don't have to show you an article. I can show you actual numbers

You pulled up two numbers at random.

This doesn't show anything that you think it does.
Hell you don't even seem to know the mask policy of either at a glance.

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Hong Kong is 99% mask use

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And the last 1% is dead.

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Hong Kong is a small island with stringent quarantine policies.

Every small island with stringent quarantine policies has low numbers and good results.

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Hong Kong is not a small island
The policies aren't that stringent, they're letting in thousands from China every day and giving them 'exemptions' from quarantine

Source: I'm from Hong Kong

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427 sq miles is a small island to be fair but that doesn't really count against it when it has a crazy high population density compared to other small islands.

It's connected to China by land
Anyway we're not doing well since last week, cases just popped up again for no reason (or they won't tell us the reason)

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I stand corrected, so it is. I assumed it was just the island part. So it's just a small country rather than an island.

ShatteredElysium posted...

I stand corrected, so it is. I assumed it was just the island part. So it's just a small country rather than an island.

You mean city of China. China nipped that freedom shit in the bit real quick.

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SmartMuffin posted...

I don't have to show you an article. I can show you actual numbers. Belgium has 844 deaths per million. The Netherlands has 358. Do they have radically different mask policies?

If not, then something else is the cause of the discrepancy.

that doesn't necessarily say anything about the effectiveness of mask usage. if the belgians haven't been social distancing well, then obviously they were going to have more cases than us, since social distancing has been a pretty big deal here. doesn't mean the number of covid deaths in belgium wouldn't have been way higher still if there hadn't been any mask usage in the country. again, all this proves is that mask policy isn't 100% of what affects the number of covid deaths. it doesn't prove at all that it's a negligible factor, which is what you're arguing.

also, according to wikipedia, it's very possible that the reported number of covid deaths in belgium is inaccurate. so this is a bad example to use.

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Me the past 72 hours

headaches, gastrointestinal problems and my middle right finger is swollen with a possible pus abscess on it

Technically all these are possible other symptoms of covid but I haven't had any of the main symptoms.

Checking with occupational health to see if I can get looked at anyway

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It's very possible that the number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths is highly inaccurate everywhere.

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Pretty much, what makes it worse is each nation (or even each province/state) measures differently so even the inaccuracies are in varying degrees. It's this gap in knowledge that's preventing places from properly opening/closing up so the hospital system are not overflowing.

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the problem with the belgium numbers is that they're also counting deaths of people that were only SUSPECTED to have covid.

yeah, obviously they're going to look pretty bad if they're counting "covid deaths" that no other country is counting.

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

the problem with the belgium numbers is that they're also counting deaths of people that were only SUSPECTED to have covid.

yeah, obviously they're going to look pretty bad if they're counting "covid deaths" that no other country is counting.

A lot of places counted suspected covid deaths.

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well, the netherlands isn't. so the comparison muffin was making doesn't work.

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

well, the netherlands isn't. so the comparison muffin was making doesn't work.

Idk if they did or not but New York and PA did. And people slammed them as faking deaths.

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I can't confirm whether or not the stats we get are truly all people who die of COVID-19 or not, but hospitals report any deaths of people who had COVID-19 and passed, even if they technically didn't pass because of COVID-19, as COVID-related deaths in order to get better funding.

Source: My job

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