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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/03/21 3:53:43 PM
#382
Speaking of gambling I just bought 75 $22 BP Calls expiring 2/19 and I'm up $225 right now.

This is pod racing not this stupid AMC/GME stuff.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/03/21 2:36:33 PM
#349
Well I'm talking more if you had multiple contracts, though with single contracts it can work too

Say for example you bought a bunch of $500 calls on GME instead of a $150 one, because you had reasonable confidence it'd get above $500. Say those ran you I don't know, $100 each, and you bought 30 of them.

If it runs to $300 in an hour, and the price becomes $200 each, you'd ideally want to sell half of them then, even if you're sure it's going to get above $500, because you could be on pace for $500 and still miss because people profit take.

Again you'd never buy with the intent to just hope the math goes your way on the volatility, but if it does, take the money, at least some.

With one contract, you might consider selling it if it doubles in value a day after you bought it even if it can give you 5x value because you're unlikely to be that right the whole time-- you can always rebuy the contract with some of your profits later.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/03/21 2:24:07 PM
#345
ExThaNemesis posted...
So I did finally watch a video I understood that used a home-buyer example. Tell me if I'm misunderstanding but.

You're looking to purchase a house in a housing development. You can buy a call option to buy the house from the developer at $400,000. You need to pay a premium to the developer (or down payment on the house) of $20,000 to lock in your contract. The time frame can be for however, we'll use three years.

Now say, two years in and everything looks grand and zoning gets approved. The actual price of the house is now $600,000, but you exercise your option and buy it for $400,000 like your contract was agreed upon.

So to put that in a GME example... you buy a call option for GME to go to $150 and set the date for idk, Friday?

Say we rocket to $300 a share again. When you exercise your contract, you get the agreed upon shares for $150.

In either case the seller/broker keeps your premium.

Am I way off base here?

That's exactly right.

So effectively your contract would be worth ($300 - $150 x 100) or $15000 at expiration should this happen-- you don't actually have to exercise, you can sell, and you can do so at any time. And this is why I say you take the price of the contract into the math. If say that contract costs you $3000 up front you should not buy the contract unless you're dead certain that the stock price can reach $180 by some point before expiration.

Now keep in mind if it's $180 at any point the contract value will be at minimum $3000 so you'll break even at worst, but that say if you bought the contract when GME was priced $100, getting to $125 (halfway there) does not mean that the contract is worth $1500. It could be worth more or less depending on how far you are from expiration and how volatile the stock has been. You're only guaranteed money if the stock price is above your strike. If it's below, yeah it could be higher or lower than what you paid but don't screw with it-- sell some to control risk but don't buy with the intent to game that.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/03/21 2:16:30 PM
#339
I actually understand the Math too but you should never game the Math itself. That just sounds like a terrible idea to me.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/03/21 2:06:54 PM
#335
I don't have a guide but I know how they work and I'll try to help people understand.

Here's the super dumbed down version-- you shouldn't ever buy an option if you can't at least imagine the price going above or below your target number. Volatility is weird and you don't want to play games with it if you can avoid it (unless you're selling a covered call or put, in which case it's only your friend). Selling is almost more simple as long as you never sell naked and don't ever buy your contract back if it's not in the green, but I'll keep it to buying for now.

Call = goes up
Put = goes down
Expiration = good until date-- if it doesn't end above your call or below your put the contract won't likely have any value
Strike = The price your contract is used at. This is what you're buying at. For instance $15 call or whatever

TARGET NUMBER = So rule I use is take the strike and add the price of the contract to that (or subtract the price of the contract for a put). For example with blur's case he'd be aiming at Gamestop to fall below $4.38 ($5 - $0.62 contract price). In the case of my AMC calls I'd be aiming for AMC to get above $13.25 ($13 + $0.25 contract price).

Now as for why my contract costs such and his costs such, there's a lot of wacky underlying math that you don't need to know, but if the price of the stock moves more the price of the contract goes up is the gist. Really though you just need to know what your target price is, and what the expiration of the contract is. If you don't think you can reach those, then don't play the game. That's how you lose. The underlying Math will screw you. You should always go in with the idea that your contract could reach your target price before it expires. If it goes green beforehand, definitely sell some of them if you have multiples to remove your risk, don't hold, but don't place some super far out bet EXPECTING it to go green beforehand, because it won't necessarily ever.

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TopicBoard 8 Ranks: The Marvel Cinematic Universe (PHASE 1)
Lopen
02/03/21 1:21:08 PM
#130
I don't really agree Thor 1 is that similar to Thor 2. I did rank them somewhat closely but depending on what you're after they have very different appeal to them.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/03/21 1:15:30 PM
#321
StartTheMachine posted...
What calls are you selling? So you're basically just looking for buyers hoping to get lucky for a huge in the money call, but realistically it's probably just going to trade sideways

I have 1400 shares

I sold the right to buy those 1400 shares from me expiration next Friday for $11 a pop for $1700

If it rockets way past $11 that sucks for me but if it goes sideways or down I get $1700 for nothing.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/03/21 1:13:26 PM
#319
StartTheMachine posted...
Selling puts or calls? Or either based on what the hell you think it will do the next day?

Well you can only sell calls if you own 100 of the security unless you sell naked (don't sell naked) so I was referring to selling puts for GME in particular

For instance if you put up $6000 as collateral (so it's not naked) you can sell a put of GME for $855 that expires on Feb 12, which unless GME falls below $60 below then you just get $855 for not being able to invest your $6000 for a bit over a week.

With your first post you had the same situation but at $1900 for Feb 26 IIRC. You basically get 33% return on investment just betting GME doesn't fall below $60 before the 26. Seems easy.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/03/21 1:09:31 PM
#317
There is a reason I'm selling calls on AMC right now. If it goes anywhere but to the moon I make a lot of money.

Granted I really should've waited until after the rocket to sell but at least I bought some before the rocket. Seemed like a good hedge.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/03/21 1:05:30 PM
#314
StartTheMachine posted...
I still don't need it to break 20 to make a shitton of money I'm assuming. I don't fully understand what I did wrong there.

That assumption is what you did wrong there

Right now the price on GME options is being heavily heavily driven by the volatility greek

So basically if it does anything but go way down and fast you lose money fast. If it stabilizes at all the price tanks a ton. If it goes up the price tanks a ton.

That's why I was saying sells seem like super easy money right now.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/03/21 1:00:37 PM
#309
Just be happy we were here to tell you to not do that

That's an easy $6k loss. You'd probably lose like $3k within a week too.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/03/21 12:55:48 PM
#307
Like if GME dropped to $60 tomorrow you could probably unload those contracts for a small gain. A really small one. Like the volatility is so high and the endpoint is so far out that that's still carrying the price for the most part, being closer to right means little in that situation.

But like the reason volume is so low is that no one is really interested in the contract. And for good reason. You lucked out a bit that only a small amount were able to fill because of this.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/03/21 12:53:49 PM
#305
I have no idea what the chart means I just know what Puts mean and what Calls mean and what influences price (volatility and the underlying share price)

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/03/21 12:52:39 PM
#303
I would say rule of thumb with options never buy them if you don't think being In The Money at any point is viable. It's fine to sell them well before expiry, and in fact you should sell some if you're well ahead of schedule

But you should always base the endpoint on the possibility. You shouldn't gamble on it surging in one direction ahead of schedule and being able to unload well before expiration.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/03/21 12:50:17 PM
#302
IF you're buying options you need to need to know what they symbolize

You're basically buying an inverted warrant with expiration Nov 19th that gains value as GME goes down and is "in the money" if GME goes below $5

Theoretically due to how volatility influences price it COULD become more valuable than that price even if it doesn't, but you're playing a very dangerous game because as time of the contract decreases and volatility decreases the value of the contract decreases.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/03/21 12:47:05 PM
#297
We breakin $9

TO THE MOON SON

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/03/21 12:44:45 PM
#295
So... you do realize if GME never goes below $5 those will expire worthless right

So you basically want to get out as soon as you can when they show as green. Time is not your friend with this investment.

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TopicBoard 8 Ranks: The Marvel Cinematic Universe (PHASE 1)
Lopen
02/03/21 12:26:33 PM
#126
Inviso posted...
There's a reason why War Machine is like, the most forgettable Avenger.

I mean with Iron Man around War Machine kinda is forgettable in general.

It works!

Anyway with all this talk about Loki fanboying I thought I was gonna be behind more people. Turns out I'm not and I should have known better because Loki is the best.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/03/21 12:25:29 PM
#289
Oh also I used a lot of the proceeds (about 2/3s of them) from the $13 EOW to double down and get 14 EOW $13 calls in addition to unselling mine, so I guess if we're splitting hairs I'd be at cost basis of $11.67 if these $13s expire worthless.

Of course if it goes to the moon before Friday I'm going to rake. Technically if a bunch of WSB people did as I did and cashed out Robinhood and moved to another broker they'd be able to reinvest now-Friday depending on timing so we do have some moon upside here.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/03/21 12:11:42 PM
#288
I still have my AMC.

Readjusted my sold calls from $13 EOW (exit gain of $40 per contract) to $11 End of Next Week (gain of $123 per)

So my cost adjusted AMC is now at $11.37. Technically I sell at a very small loss if those $11s get cashed out but feels strong.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/03/21 9:30:24 AM
#236
Colegreen_c12 posted...
You don't sell puts on GME unless your doing like a $20 strike price but your not going to get much for it.

He is literally doing a $20 strike

I mean I guess it's possible GME drops back to less than $17 in the next few months but I wouldn't call it guaranteed money

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/03/21 8:58:33 AM
#228
I'm looking at that chart and feel like selling puts is the way am I misreading something

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TopicCan't believe the Gatekeeper won CYL5 in FEH.
Lopen
02/02/21 8:16:02 PM
#7
Denning should have been in instead

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/02/21 8:15:07 PM
#194
After reading Mark Cuban's AMA I feel a lot better about AMC.

Still going to average down with sold calls but we'll have our day. Someday. WSB is too stubborn to just let the market makers win.

(GME still too expensive to hell with that noise)

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TopicBoard 8 Ranks: The Marvel Cinematic Universe (PHASE 1)
Lopen
02/02/21 7:12:46 PM
#84
I may or may not have mentioned Kat Dennings as a positive in my write-up <_< >_>

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/02/21 6:42:51 PM
#189
Yeah I'm no longer super confident that's why I'm spamming $13 call sells to try and bring my cost down. I do think if you've got 100 share groups that selling calls will be pretty lucrative if you've got a $7 entry.

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TopicBoard 8 Ranks: The Marvel Cinematic Universe (PHASE 1)
Lopen
02/02/21 6:35:19 PM
#78
Nah. I know eddv likes a few of the well liked MCU movies

I won't spoil the list but it's not gonna be full reverse mode. I do expect to see a good amount of insanity though.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/02/21 6:32:57 PM
#186
If you're even humoring the $1 PT you probably should get out if it opens green tomorrow morning. Nothing wrong with a 10-20% return on your investment.

That being said I don't think it will go below $4 ever. If you think you can diamond hands through a 50% drop then see you on the moon brother.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/02/21 6:26:30 PM
#183
The price target of $1 is a bad joke

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/02/21 4:15:03 PM
#163
Okay so basically if at anytime AVCT is above 11.50 this thing will surge and the expiration date is 2025

So it's like a 11.50 call that expires 1/25

That's actually a really good buy for $0.60. Count me in.

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TopicBoard 8 Ranks: The Marvel Cinematic Universe (PHASE 1)
Lopen
02/02/21 3:54:07 PM
#70
Well with this topic at least you are. I think you like maybe 1/4 the field at best. That's gonna cause some weird rankings particularly down low.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/02/21 3:49:28 PM
#157
Alright how does the AVCTWarrant work. What is our target price and timeline and what do you think is a good price for it.

I just realized I'm on E-Trade now so I can buy some

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TopicBoard 8 Ranks: The Marvel Cinematic Universe (PHASE 1)
Lopen
02/02/21 3:41:23 PM
#67
Iron Man 2 seems like a decent pick to me. Could actually (again) see Eddv putting Thor 1 in the top 10 and I think we may have enough Loki freaks that it'll have a healthy selection of 16-20s for Thor 2.

Captain Marvel is a sneaky pick though if you wanna overthink the hint. Not sure who is thinking that one is top 10 good.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/02/21 3:32:37 PM
#154
"Jungle has 100 bananas. Wall Street Smarties have borrowed 60 bananas (most are not real, they just wanted more to manipulate prices). Stupid Apes buy 80 real bananas because they like that banana. Wall Street can now only sell 20 bananas legitimately, while it will be clear the other 40 bananas are fake (even though they spent real money on them).

SEC doesnt realize more bananas are owned than exist. When they find out they gonna be hella mad."

This is the best thing I've gotten out of WSB.

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TopicBoard 8 Ranks: The Marvel Cinematic Universe (PHASE 1)
Lopen
02/02/21 3:15:46 PM
#61
Nailed it. Though I didn't expect Eddv would be actually positive on the movie-- just expected "not overly negative"


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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/02/21 3:00:49 PM
#147
My advice is buy AMC now if you are willing to hold long or you are able to sell covered calls

If you just want a quick WSB surge realize you're gambling almost as hard as Gamestop at this point. That don't mean it can't happen but it should be upside to your play not why you get in

I will say I don't think the stock can go much lower. It was trading at $4.5 before the games just on bankruptcy news, and bankruptcy news now is better than that news. Of course shares are diluted but still, it's in MUCH better position now than it was a month ago when it was at $2-$3

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/02/21 2:40:56 PM
#141
Menji posted...
Disclosure - I bought mine a couple weeks back

This is the proper way to play Earning Reports

Buy a few weeks before, sell on the run up (or hold through if you have the utmost confidence)

Very high chance Amazon actually drops after the ER even if it's fairly ho-hum.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/02/21 1:33:29 PM
#128
Nanis23 posted...
Realistically, why would AMC go back to pre-covid price in a normal market?

Well no, it wouldn't.

If you're long it will though. I agree with Chris that it's a good hold now.

That being said if you wanted a squeeze pop, I'm not sure anymore. I think a lot of shorts probably covered. But we'll see. A lot of short sells were well under even the current price so we could still see it go up.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/02/21 1:27:02 PM
#122
I was not expecting AMC to drop back down this low, personally. I figured $11 was about the bottom. I overestimated diamond hands or underestimated market manipulation.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/02/21 1:22:49 PM
#120
Sunroof posted...
So a stock can be at $13.74, but I can effectively buy it at $12.19? And then when I sell it, will it sell at the non-$1.55 deducted amount?

So you'll be obligated to sell it at $12.50 at any point before Feb 19th. However if it goes lower than $12.50 by Feb 19th, and you hold through contract expiration you can later sell it for higher than $12.50, and you keep the up front you got from the sold calls when that happens

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/02/21 1:19:13 PM
#117
So the way you lose money is if EVRI goes well below entry price and you holding contracts dissuades you from panic selling. This is all kinda theory, but let's lay out a hypothetical

For instance say the stock price goes down to $9 by 2/19. Say under normal circumstances you would have panic sold at $12 for a $7000 loss, and because of your contracts you chose not to. That means because it's now at $9 you'd lose $12000 more.

BUT you'd still have the shares when the contract expires, and you'd have the price they gave you for the contracts, so your situations after contract expiration would be as follows

No contracts - Lost $7000, 0 shares of EVRI
$15 contracts - down a net change of $17400 value, but you still have 4000 shares of EVRI
$12.5 contracts - down a net change of $12800, but you still have 4000 shares of EVRI

If it goes up or breaks even you always win. And if you just hold you may go back up to the starting point anyway so you still win.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/02/21 1:06:58 PM
#110
I'm happy to go into details as you need.

The key is you do it with stocks you are very confident will not crater into the ground. That's why I'm planning to do it with AAPL, despite the relatively lower premium per share than certain other companies. Keep in mind you're basically getting that premium monthly (or weekly if you choose a stock with weekly calls), so it becomes stable income, and that because the Feb 19 Call is about 50% in you'll be getting a higher amount for the full month call, so you'd be getting a bit more than the figures I'd outlined for March once the Feb contracts expire. For instance the March 19 call prices are $1 for the $15 and $2.10 for the $12.5, which means you'd be getting $4000 or $8200 up front, using that same logic outlined above, but would need to hold through March 19 instead.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/02/21 12:58:55 PM
#106
So @Sunroof let's go into the theory a bit on why I think covered calls are really smart for you.

Sunroof posted...
Im usually buying $50k at a time. So if it was at $13, then thatd be around 3,846 shares.

Let's round up to 4000 shares for the sake of argument, and let's assume you get in at current prices (when I started writing this post). That assumes a $13.74 share price, the 2/19 $15 call being $0.40, and the 2/19 $12.5 call being $1.55. So my strategy for you would be to do the following.

  1. Buy shares as usual
  2. Sell covered calls on literally every share you own (sell to open)
  3. Wait until the contracts expire. You never buy these contracts back ever. As you get better at this you can open it up as an option but for now just assume you'll never sell them.
In basic terms the net effect of what you're getting here is this.

  • Your money becomes "held" in EVRI because you're obligated to hold onto the stock through 2/19 to fulfill the contract as needed
  • You reap the upfront cost. For the $15 call you make the price x 100 x 40 (number of contracts you hold). So you sell the $15 call you make $0.40x100x40, or $1600. For the $12.5 call you make $1.55x100x40, or $6200.
  • If the price of the stock is equal to or higher than the strike when the contract expires, you must sell at the strike. For the $15 call that means you're selling your EVRI at about a 10% gain which is win/win. You'd make a profit of $1.26 on each share, so $5040,as well as keeping your contract fee of $1600, for a total gain of $6640. For the $12.5 call, you're technically selling at a loss, but even at $12.5 you'll make a small net gain on the transaction (your effective cost on the stock becomes what you paid for it, $13.74, minus the price of the contract, $1.55 or $12.19, meaning you basically bought 4000 shares at $12.19, sold at $12.50. You basically make $1240 in this case.
  • If the price is lower than the strike, you keep the stock, meaning you got $1600 or $6200 for free, just as a price for freezing your $50k in place. Now this can be somewhat a bad thing. For instance if EVRI dropped to $9, you'd be holding bags at some level. But if you want to damage control this outcome the $12.5 call sell is a bit better for you, as you'll always keep the full contract premium
  • Of course if the price goes way up, your gains limited-- for instance if it goes up to $20 before 2/19, you're still only making $6640 with the $15 call sells and $1240 with the $12.5 call sells
But either way, it's guaranteed very safe money if you really believe in the stock you're backing. I'm doing this with AAPL once my E-Trade money clears.

You can get more advanced with it later, but for now I'd start with this. Let me know if this made sense.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/02/21 12:07:49 PM
#94
masterplum posted...
Yep. Im up 4K on GME calendar puts

I've made about 30k between AMC and GME total (cashed out, not still in the game-- I'm giving my cost basis on AMC since I sold most of my shares for $13 but chose to hold these which means it was a bad idea to hold them unless I can get out at or above $13 (or bring cost basis to the share price)) in spite of "holding bags" here on AMC so yeah lol.

Also I made about $800 on puts on GME and $3000 on calls on GME.

But yeah keep being jealous LotM.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/02/21 11:14:36 AM
#65
I think the hedgies are buying a lot of AMC right now. Covering the $9 calls from last week is probably doable at these prices. Should still be some decent short interest but I'm less confident we'll see any sort of Gamestop nonsense on this one.

No plans on buying these $13 calls back if I get ejected so be it. Losing confidence in a squeeze. People were too scared.

That being said if the stock price finishes the week at $12 I'll be selling calls again, not exiting.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/02/21 11:00:52 AM
#63
@sunroof how many shares of EVRI are you typically swinging. I want to explain calls in the way I think you should use them a bit better.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/02/21 10:01:41 AM
#57
Effective share cost down to $12.37. Gonna track this. No plans to sell any shares soon.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/02/21 9:58:11 AM
#56
Sold a bunch of $13 calls that expire Friday for about $900. Much less confident in a major squeeze soon if we're going below $9. Mid term may still happen though. Keep in mind Gamestop took a long time to reach its peak squeeziness.

Still not selling at a loss but if those are cashed I'd be at the break even from my first sellout so I'm cool with it.

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TopicStock Topic 19
Lopen
02/02/21 9:21:17 AM
#35
Sunroof be VERY CAREFUL with options. I would advise never buying and never selling them unless you have the collateral

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TopicBoard 8 Ranks: The Marvel Cinematic Universe (PHASE 1)
Lopen
02/02/21 2:03:30 AM
#49
Related to Eddv my money is on it being Hulk and Eddv having it at like 9 cause whedon stink isn't all over it

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