Board 8 > Stock Topic 19

(+) Yeah! (+)

Seanchan posted...

Given those numbers, do you feel I've made a good return? In the same scenario, do you feel like you could have done better getting more personally involved buying individual stocks?

I feel like that is a good return for someone not involved yes. But I also think a managed portfolio could definitely do better yes. It definitely has a learning curve but even learning the basics of stock picking and getting a mixture of good healthy etfs/mutual funds, good big safe stocks that you sell covered calls on and some growth/speculative stocks will give better results IF you do your research and are diligent.

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red sox 777 posted...

All the regulars in this topic has gotten better rates of return than that BUT this topic series was started in March 2020 at the bottom of a deep bear market and we have had an amazing bull market since then. I think it's very hard to make fair comparisons until we see how this topic does in something other than a record setting bull market.

This is a good point, so I'll give you my numbers since April 2020 for better comparison. Beginning balance: $253k, $13k of purchases, $75k of investment return (rate of return ~28.3%).

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/naked-brand-group-closes-50-210500100.html

These guys did an offering yesterday at $1.70. If AMC fizzles in the near term, they could be the best short term reddit play tbh.

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If GME runs tomorrow, I'm going to throw mad money at some March puts. Out of sheer will to get my account back to 100k.

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StartTheMachine posted...

I still can't believe I got greedy on AMC after my account hit 100k and bought back so fast

So so so so so stupid must turn off emotions for trading

Meanwhile GSMGW and IEAWW are way the fuck up if I just stuck with the plan and threw 20k back in each of those when I hit 100k

Always stick to your plan

Just a reminder from yourself from earlier today :D


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I do appreciate that. March puts seem very unrisky, especially as far as options trading goes. But yeah, maybe I don't need to go too hard on them!

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Okay the premiums are insane and I'm a dolt, maybe risky! But this one's kinda tempting.



Using an options calculator. Breakevens at expiry means I need it to drop to at least that price to even break even before I even start making money? I guess the IV is just so insane that it makes the premiums insane too? I've maybe only done like 10 options trades up until now, and they were all buying calls

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sky is falling, sell everything forever.

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

sky is falling, sell everything forever.

buying the sky on the dip

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I'd be careful about $60 puts. Even at $90, GME is worth less than NKLA.

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This is the price it gives me for buying $20 March puts. So basically acxording to that graph, anything under 80 and I'm green and can sell anytime before they expire? If that's the case, this just seems too easy

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It looks like the financial media is going to use WSB the way they use gurus who called the last crash - baselessly pump an investment by saying they are getting into it. Today it's ETH - even though WSB has an express policy of no crypto discussion.

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StartTheMachine posted...

This is the price it gives me for buying $20 March puts. So basically acxording to that graph, anything under 80 and I'm green and can sell anytime before they expire? If that's the case, this just seems too easy

I'm just going to say don't chase getting back to 100k. You're very likely to get there as long as you don't burn money chasing. The market says this bet has a more than 50% chance of going to zero, and I don't disagree with that.

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I guess I'm biased as a GME shareholder of course.

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Ehhh I mostly disagree, though that time table is pretty short we know this stock will crash harder. But longer puts suuure do look tasty with less risk

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Look at this motherfuckin' chart. It's unlosable. It won't be hard to actually sell my puts right?

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if GME goes super high I may unload into puts tbh

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

if GME goes super high I may unload into puts tbh

This is the way

We are reverse DFVs

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I have been subbed to WSB since before the crash last year, I love the guys, but if they want to be what they say are I will take them out back myself.

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Yesterday was really really hard. Lots of uncertainty and depression. I should've stuck with crypto tbh

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Extha how much do you have invested and how much did you lose

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My attitude has always been whatever money goes in is money I've already parted with and whatever happens happens because it's not real money

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

Extha how much do you have invested and how much did you lose

$1,100, down $800 right now.

Not life changing or anything, but I think seeing this happen with money I pulled out of ETH and Cardano is what is really making me the sickest.

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I've taken a $900 hit in two hours playing Craps before but this feels so much more shitty

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ExThaNemesis posted...

I've taken a $900 hit in two hours playing Craps before but this feels so much more shitty

Completely agreed dude. I think the difference is with stocks you think you actually are going to win.

I think its important to only invest in high volatility stocks what you can stomach losing. 80% of my portfolio is in 3 index funds.

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I'm looking at that chart and feel like selling puts is the way am I misreading something

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Lopen posted...

I'm looking at that chart and feel like selling puts is the way am I misreading something

The difference between buying and selling options I still don't get. I just always uh buy then sell

Would I be selling puts to get in all that green

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That's the chart for buying puts right? It's a zero sum game so for selling you flip all the green to red and the red to green.

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That said, GME making moves in pre-market. $114 currently.

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Same with AMC. Up to $8.85 last I saw and will probably get to $9 shortly.

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red sox 777 posted...

That's the chart for buying puts right? It's a zero sum game so for selling you flip all the green to red and the red to green.

So yes why would I want to sell puts instead of buy then. GME ain't gonna last for multiple months

Probably not for multiple days

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StartTheMachine posted...

So yes why would I want to sell puts instead of buy then

You don't sell puts on GME unless your doing like a $20 strike price but your not going to get much for it.

You sell puts on stocks you wouldn't mind owning for a discount so that you either get a premium for free or a discount on purchase price.


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StartTheMachine posted...

So yes why would I want to sell puts instead of buy then. GME ain't gonna last for multiple months

Probably not for multiple days

That's what I thought about NKLA. "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent," as the saying goes.

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Colegreen_c12 posted...

You don't sell puts on GME unless your doing like a $20 strike price but your not going to get much for it.

He is literally doing a $20 strike

I mean I guess it's possible GME drops back to less than $17 in the next few months but I wouldn't call it guaranteed money

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Lopen posted...

He is literally doing a $20 strike

yea but hes buying.

Honestly I wouldn't touch either cause im not confident it will go below 20 and im not confident it wont go below 20.

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GME going from +30% pre market to +5% 3 minutes after Market opens reminded me why I never enter the pre market when it's up so much

I once went into BYND after a few days it wad klling it, pre market looked great too, went in with $12000
Lost $1200 in an instant

lol I know I have much more loss stories than gain stories mostly because my gains are just boring "100 per day by holding a few stocks, $1500 each" and then I lost everything in one day

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Colegreen_c12 posted...

yea but hes buying.

Honestly I wouldn't touch either cause im not confident it will go below 20 and im not confident it wont go below 20.

But I don't need it go down to 20, I don't know if it will hit that either. I'll sell my puts when I'm like 10k profit

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I am pretty annoyed that my limit order to sell GME at $111 didn't execute. It opened at $113.40, so what gives? Probably that my broker wasn't fast enough to catch it, but there's another advantage for rich people using prime brokers with HFT.

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StartTheMachine posted...

But I don't need it go down to 20, I don't know if it will hit that either. I'll sell my puts when I'm like 10k profit

yea your basically hoping the price will tank faster than theta will decay. It's not an unreasonable play but not the kind of thing i like to do

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Oh it's a $20 strike? I didn't even notice that, I was just looking at the chart. Okay, well in that case IMO buying it is almost like throwing your money away. If GME doesn't collapse in the next 2 days that put is probably going to be destroyed by IV crush.

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red sox 777 posted...

If GME doesn't collapse in the next 2 days

he buying it a few months out so hes got time.

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Colegreen_c12 posted...

he buying it a few months out so hes got time.

March 5 right? The thing is GME was at $20 before all this short squeezing started. So there isn't much chance of going below that, and the best chance is probably the crash triggering overly pessimistic capitulation.

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red sox 777 posted...

Oh it's a $20 strike? I didn't even notice that, I was just looking at the chart. Okay, well in that case IMO buying it is almost like throwing your money away. If GME doesn't collapse in the next 2 days that put is probably going to be destroyed by IV crush.

The $20 strike one was out til July.

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I've been brushing up on puts and calls to better understand them because i'd like to know what i'm doing when I have money to invest, but I'm having trouble following this conversation.

-Blur wants to buy a Put. Or is it more correct to say that Blur wants to Write a Put to someone else and they buy the Put from him? (We'll call them person A)

-So Blur receives X from Person A for a contract that says that Blur *will* pay 20.00 per share if Person A exercises the contract. But that is something that person A would only ever do if the price falls below 20.

-The idea is that the Blur will then turn around and sell this contract to someone else before the expiration date so he will no longer be on the hook if the contract is exercised? But then what is the incentive for person B in that scenario?

I feel like I don't see the whole picture yet.

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I think a $20 strike for any time period is still a bad play.

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Calendar spreads make more sense to me than straight up options on GME right now. Bet on GME blowing up eventually but not now

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So Im learning how to read candlestick charts

Are they really as superior to line charts as they seem? They seem like they contain much more actionable information
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Decided to put amc for this Friday. Bit of a hedge given my other positions. Just feel gross about this week.

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Forceful_Dragon posted...

I've been brushing up on puts and calls to better understand them because i'd like to know what i'm doing when I have money to invest, but I'm having trouble following this conversation.

-Blur wants to buy a Put. Or is it more correct to say that Blur wants to Write a Put to someone else and they buy the Put from him? (We'll call them person A)

-So Blur receives X from Person A for a contract that says that Blur *will* pay 20.00 per share if Person A exercises the contract. But that is something that person A would only ever do if the price falls below 20.

-The idea is that the Blur will then turn around and sell this contract to someone else before the expiration date so he will no longer be on the hook if the contract is exercised? But then what is the incentive for person B in that scenario?

I feel like I don't see the whole picture yet.

Blur is talking about buying a put in this case. He is basically buying the right to sell 100 shares of GME at $20 at or before the expiration date.

The idea if he is planning on hold it long term is that the expiration date rolls around and GME is at $15. He then buys 100 shares at $15 and sells them for 20 to the guy he bought the put from.

What hes actually planning on is flipping them, say a month from now GME is 30 dollars. It's a lot closer to 20 than it was before so the idea is that the premium will be higher for the puts. He can then sell them for a profit to person B. Theres a multitude of reasons person B might buy then:

• He thinks its going to go way below 20
• He thinks it will go lower and he can flip it like Blur did
• He's hedging against actual stock to lower his potential downside
• He's doing it in conjuction with other options for some kind of strategy

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And as soon as I say that it rockets up lol. Guess I will see tomorrow if I wasted gains hedging.

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