Board 8 > Stock Topic 19

(+) Yeah! (+)

ExThaNemesis posted...

I'm just so mad at myself for falling into this when my Crypto plays, ETH and Cardano, were EXTREMELY solid and I ended up being 100% right on them both but I pulled out to try and make a quick buck on GameStop and ended up embroiled in a whole movement.

Yeah ETH has been doing nuts. I haven't been using it for any of my baby gains unless it has a bad hour for me to hop in on just because it keeps setting new highs for itself and I have been preferring to pick coins that have had more variance but have been reliably reaching the threshold I would need them to reach before rotating out.

Algorand for example had a -3% hour earlier as part of an otherwise +8% day and my chunk in Eos had just matured (hit +4%) so I switched it to Algo, which rallied back from it's bad hour and has already been rotated again.

I still have next to no understanding as to what factors are important for the different coins to move on a large scale but I figure that understanding will come with time and for now I'll just focus on small scale trends and try not to make an assumptions that the coin i'm getting into will hit a price point it's never reached before.

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tyder21 posted...

Word -- Exam C was ass.

Yeah. I've been a lot happier without the exam stress. It was all good experience and I still enjoy it as a curiosity / hobby, but having that tied to my job success was a pressure I couldn't shake in the long run.

Plus I feel like the health insurance industry is probably struggling right now, unless the increased mortality is offsetting increased life costs? Either way, the company I'm at now has had its stock increase by about 50% in the time since I've joined and is doling out extra bonuses left and right.

I've typed up and deleted a number of posts in this topic series, idk how acceptable it would be to say "hey guys this company in an industry no one here pays attention to its doing REALLY WELL," especially when I'm only familiar with the financials in one of multiple divisions. Probably better to just not risk the inside trading potential? Idk.

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ETH is thankfully completely offsetting my GME loses. Not that either position is very large.

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Sony has been very impressive the past year. Good job holding.

I currently have $83k to play with. I have $25k in Tesla and $51k in GOOG, so Im set on tech stocks I reckon. I want to keep at least $50k for any future must buys like GME used to be. So that gives me around $33k to play with. Recs?

I want to consult the ER calendar but dont have the time to look it over in detail.

Damn there were people who got burned on GNUS?

I haven't used stop limits in a while but for something THIS volatile it's always a good idea. If I had done my strategy of raising stop limit bids as the price moved during the very first day of the AMC run, would have probably walked out with 130k. Quite the difference from 75k.

I'm just glad all of this was a pleasant detour on the true American rocket ship. You know what I'm talking about. Looks like some people were loading the boat today.

I should give a heads up that if AVCT somehow doesn't release news during ER this March, I do think warrants will drop pretty substantially, maybe to .50 or below because they've already been running up on ER hype. But I'll just be averaging down if that happens. I had a 25k win in AVCTW earlier that I never sold, because I'm too paranoid of missing the real run to 2+

That stock has hilariously no volume lately. No one's really trading it, everyone is just waiting.

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Regarding GME
I have been following SIGL ever since Musk tweeted "Use Signal" for curiosity purposes
And this is just amazing how much time it takes for a stock to go back to it's original level
It's been 16 market days and it's still 550% increase from the original price

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When a stock is really on the rise how far below the current price do you want to set a Stop? Like I imagine you set it too close then you could end up selling on a tiny dip of an otherwise unblemished ascent, but when you set it too far you are passing up on getting those peak gains.

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Forceful_Dragon posted...

When a stock is really on the rise how far below the current price do you want to set a Stop? Like I imagine you set it too close then you could end up selling on a tiny dip of an otherwise unblemished ascent, but when you set it too far you are passing up on getting those peak gains.

Take it from the master of the early stop who learned the hard way too many times: set stops at a price that is slightly above your purchase price. That way you cant possibly lose money and it wont hit on a silly dip. Then, watch the stock like a hawk (if you can) and increase the Stop price as it goes up, never coming within like 10% of where it was a few minutes ago.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

When a stock is really on the rise how far below the current price do you want to set a Stop? Like I imagine you set it too close then you could end up selling on a tiny dip of an otherwise unblemished ascent, but when you set it too far you are passing up on getting those peak gains.

Yeah, it's different with every stock obviously. With this one, when it rallied hard, I would have tried to keep it about 2 dollars from trading price and raise it when it moved 2 more ahead (so stop at 14, price at 16, move to stop to 16 when price hits 18). But actually, maybe even three dollars apart, becauss the first day of AMC was suuuuuper volatile.

I've had success with playing pump and dumps like GNUS doing this. And AMC was essentially a pump and dump, the full steaming dump just took until Robinhood stepped in.

E: You can also just do a $2 trailing stop like this lol. That's what trailing stops are. Look them up if you don't know about them!

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What's so sad about what's going on right now is that WSB is just pouring all of their cash into trying to continue to pump these, probably very few people selling (since they're likely all bagholders at this point), and they're just making institutions and HFT algos all the money. Giving it right back to them.

Those guys went too far cult too fast

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StartTheMachine posted...

What's so sad about what's going on right now is that WSB is just pouring all of their cash into trying to continue to pump these, probably very few people selling (since they're likely all bagholders at this point), and they're just making institutions and HFT algos all the money. Giving it right back to them.

Those guys went too far cult too fast

That depends on how much short interest there still is. You don't need 100% short interest for a stock to squeeze. It also depends on the willingness to sell of the holders. In some senses the situation is more dangerous for the shorts now, because anyone who has not sold at this stage is probably a true believer and is not going to sell except at a much higher price. If the number of shares shorted exceeds the number of shares held by true believers, the shorts are in trouble.

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Come on. Give me even a decent sized run up in the last few hours so I can get the fuck out.

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red sox 777 posted...

That depends on how much short interest there still is. You don't need 100% short interest for a stock to squeeze. It also depends on the willingness to sell of the holders. In some senses the situation is more dangerous for the shorts now, because anyone who has not sold at this stage is probably a true believer and is not going to sell except at a much higher price. If the number of shares shorted exceeds the number of shares held by true believers, the shorts are in trouble.

But they have infinite money to play with and all of the institutions in their pocket. Retail can't afford to sit and throw money at a manipulated stock price forever.

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Yeah I just imagine the market makers fucking with this AH again with a gap down or something

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Damn NAKD 30% up. Knew that had potential here.

And fucking KOSS. Have you all seen the float on that thing? Super low which causes it to rocket, AVCT style. Damn I may play that one soon. Check the one month chart and see what you missed. Almost GME like gains if you got in early and got out fast. But you know, that's basically impossible.

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ExThaNemesis posted...

But they have infinite money to play with and all of the institutions in their pocket. Retail can't afford to sit and throw money at a manipulated stock price forever.

The time is limited on the short side by the time it takes for the long shares to be concentrated in the "diamond hands" as they put it. As long as there are shares held by people like you or me who are willing to sell at a non-infiniti-squeeze price, the shorts can keep buying and selling. But it's possible that as this trading goes on, weak hands get shaken out and more and more of the float ends up being owned by the true believers.

As this happens we would expect volume to go down. In the extreme mathematical theoretical case, if 100% of the shares are in the hands of people who will only sell for absurdly high prices, one single market order to buy 1 share will send the price to the lowest ask on the price ladder, which would be somewhere between Mars and Jupiter, instantly putting the shorts into a margin call and forcing them to submit market orders to buy back all their shares.

It's a very interesting dynamic problem.

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That wouls be pretty incredible. But it's just obvious that day traders will come in and out of these things and inevitably sell their shares to shorts.

I get your point though, if it was 100% true believers day traders wouldn't even be able to buy either. Now that would be incredible but that's not how humanity works. I don't see it happening.

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Peace___Frog posted...

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I think it's hilarious that the actuarial field has somehow been labelled as low-stress. I think something like 10% of candidates who sit for Exams P/FM end up completing all of them. Most of that drop-off is probably people asking themselves "why would I continue subjecting myself to this?"

Insurance industry in general was hit fairly hard by 2020. I work in Property/Casualty, so I'm a bit disconnected from the goings-on in Health, but I think Health was amusingly one of the less-affected sectors. There was a whole lot of deferred elective medical procedures. I mean hey, look at CVS stock, already an almost complete recovery from the initial COVID-scare drop despite controlling Aetna. COVID didn't hit them as hard as was initially anticipated.

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Hot take: Stop Limits are bad because they are by definition Sell Low.

If you are worried a stock is so volatile you might lose all your money you need to either reduce your position or sell at the current price.

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Extha also seems way too result's oriented to ever succeed in stock picking. He's going to lose his shorts chasing money

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masterplum posted...

Hot take: Stop Limits are bad because they are by definition Sell Low.

If you are worried a stock is so volatile you might lose all your money you need to either reduce your position or sell at the current price.

This is why I always put stop limits only after the stock has run a bit. Yeah, if you put them right when you get in, well, you might as well not have bought there. At that point ride it out unless you somehow perfectly timed a buy order before a massive sell off or something

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masterplum posted...

Extha also seems way too result's oriented to ever succeed in stock picking. He's going to lose his shorts chasing money

I'm a gambler, not a trader.

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Especially with volatile stocks. If it jumps around you are just asking to sell at the worst possible moment. It could be down at that price for seconds before bouncing back up and you will sell it right there at the bottom

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ExThaNemesis posted...

I'm a gambler, not a trader.

I would get out TBH. Has all the downsides of real gambling without the upside of being able to leave the casino if that is what you are looking for

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masterplum posted...

I would get out TBH. Has all the downsides of real gambling without the upside of being able to leave the casino if that is what you are looking for

I disagree, ExTha should stay. Because to be fair, I started off as more of a gambler who got lucky, then got unlucky, which caused me to become an actual investor.

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It was looking for a while like a run up was possible today but not now. Fuck.

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So is anything coming from AOC, Cruz, etc. bitching about RH, or is all that bluster going to be quietly dropped now that the 24-hour news cycle has moved on?

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ExThaNemesis posted...

It was looking for a while like a run up was possible today but not now. Fuck.

It's trading at like a fifth the volume we saw last week. If restrictions are ever fully lifted, I will for sure buy AMC shares pre-market that day.

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Speaking of gambling I just bought 75 $22 BP Calls expiring 2/19 and I'm up $225 right now.

This is pod racing not this stupid AMC/GME stuff.

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I sold a little GME today at $99 and $105. Not really the price points I wanted but it felt overly risky so I cut the position a bit.

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I feel like anything other than leaps is just terrible value for buying options

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As I continue to brush up on terms and strategies I just read an article about Loss Psychology that seems appropriate to the conversation of gambling vs investing:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/loss-psychology.asp

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this guy im interviewing for a position mentioned he likes to learn about the stock market

I couldn't help replying with a "GME, baby!"

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$DOGE making a move?
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Also, as has been discussed in this topic over the past few months, I agree that stop loss orders are generally bad. It's a great way to sell low. Don't invest what you're afraid to lose - if you feel so much fear that you need to set a stop loss, it's a sign you put in too much into that investment. Diversify as needed (including with cash if that is necessary for you to feel comfortable).

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Correction to post #364: that should read "If the number of shares shorted exceeds the number of shares not held by true believers".

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Muahah, I got my money off Coinbase and onto Binance. Thanks for the free $36 sucker, time to become a millionaire.

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I feel like I need to get in the crypto game. Maybe I will move $25k into one of these coin apps and throw it all in ETH?

Which is the best coin platform?

If you are US then a lot of platforms are not available. Binance.us has seemed the most attractive thus far.

Coinbase is ass except for the free money. I don't know too much about any others, but a few others that I tried to sign up for informed me that I could not use them because they cannot operate in the US.

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Is Coinbase bad? It's bar far the one I hear about the most so it must be doing something right

I've been hearing about Binance lately because of Doge but I'd only heard it once or twice before that.

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Coinbase seems absolutely atrocious for day trading. The conversion fee is 20x the fee for binance to buy/sell, and that's not including any other flat rate fees to cash out. It's real bad, lol

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I wouldnt be day trading, and I live in the US. I plan on throwing $25k into ETH. So with that being said, Binance?

I've been using Coinbase for 2 months and I like it except for the commissions and not having DOGE available. All I've used it for is to buy and hold BTC though, with minimal trading. So the commissions aren't a huge deal for me.

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Only put any in ETH if you're willing to just walk away for a few years. Like don't even open the app or anything.

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Yeah that would be my plan for ETH. Unless Bitcoin is better? I dont plan on messing with DOGE due to the high commission fee per trade.

Sunroof posted...

I wouldnt be day trading, and I live in the US. I plan on throwing $25k into ETH. So with that being said, Binance?

LOL I really don't think you can hold. Even Coinbase's huge commissions probably wouldn't stop you from closing out a trade quickly to lock in a gain. So yeah, given that you are going to trade frequently anyway, go for the one with lower commissions.

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https://www.sec.gov/oiea/investor-alerts-and-bulletins/risks-short-term-trading-based-social-media-investor-alert

Lol RH alerted me to this warning
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I reckon crypto is a lot different from stocks and I wouldnt want to daytrade. Take back what you said or else!