Lurker > Lopen

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TopicAll-Purpose Wrestling Topic 462: twitter.com /BeckyLynchWWE
Lopen
12/04/18 8:35:59 PM
#287
Jakyl25 posted...
8 p.m. 2.26 million viewers
9 p.m. 2.40 million viewers
10 p.m. 2.20 million viewers


Wow.

No third hour drop off. So basically they put out a show that was so bad that it scared away the impatient "just checking in if the show is interesting" crowd
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1316
Lopen
12/04/18 8:32:22 PM
#165
creativename posted...
Theyre on the same boat. No. Theyre not. Mario team was on roids that year,


Also you're the only one I've seen in this topic try to limit the Nintendo boost to Mario. Makes no sense that it would just be Mario. Results don't support it either. Even if you try and exempt Samus at minimum Ganondorf looks monstrous in 05 compared to 04, as does Kirby. And there are other historically Nintendo linked guys like Sonic who also look better in 05.
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1316
Lopen
12/04/18 8:28:13 PM
#163
creativename posted...
I honestly thought this result would bury this Mario/Samus stuff forever.


Why would it? The absurdity of Mario/Samus being close in 04 was based on an entirely different voting ecosystem. 04 was a year where Link blasted Ganon down to 12%. SFF having less effects this year is not weird. For any amount of strength difference you could call for in Mario/Samus you could also say Mario's less likely to SFF her super hard this year too.

If anything this year proves without a shadow of a doubt (through Seph/Tifa or Mario/Samus) that rSFF exists, which throws out the primary defense of Mario beating Samus which was "Mario would not have been able to SFF her if he was weaker"

The only one who it shuts down was Ulti with his "Samus could never have beaten Mario ever" nonsense.
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TopicAll-Purpose Wrestling Topic 462: twitter.com /BeckyLynchWWE
Lopen
12/04/18 8:21:17 PM
#285
Strife2 posted...
Record low Raw rating. Maybe the Man can help Smackdown beat it this week


Awesome. I was thinking Corbin's go away heat may have caused some actual lasting damage to the rating and it seems I was correct
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1316
Lopen
12/04/18 8:15:28 PM
#155
It's possible people were just upset voting when the elim didn't matter and now it's SERIOUS. I kinda thought rematches would just favor the loser but maybe it's more complicated than that. Or maybe it's just noise.
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1316
Lopen
12/04/18 7:49:45 PM
#143
And I will say if anything this year's meeting empowers the idea of indirectly Mario looking weaker than Samus but still whooping her, considering either he or Tifa had to rSFF or else the match projected to 52%+ win for Samus
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1316
Lopen
12/04/18 7:47:31 PM
#140
creativename posted...
So youre just going to pretend 2K5 didnt have the biggest voterbase shift weve ever seen? Really?


2k5 has no reason to disproportionately favor Mario over Samus to that degree. Period. They're on the same boat. I mean you can feel better about the match after seeing yesterday all you want but frankly you really shouldn't. There weren't enough data points in 04 to really feel that confident about a 10% shift. Reasons that the match would be closer this year simply didn't exist then regardless of how you feel about their relative strength in 05 or 04.

As I said this year them being close wasn't really that shocking. I called both meetings correctly and still deny it would be that close in 04. It's simply a null tell. Too much is different now.
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TopicCharacter Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 9
Lopen
12/04/18 6:27:17 PM
#241
I think there's some interesting stuff to consider about how a rematch affects the match, but ultimately Pikachu/Mega Man is the more interesting one to discuss there. No matter what you value rematch deviation at it's hard to think it's going to flip a 55-45
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1316
Lopen
12/04/18 6:04:34 PM
#55
creativename posted...
But a 51.6ish% victory can clearly be flipped depending on year. Youd be in denial to not accept that.


Like if you're going to ask me could Samus/Mario have been Samus's victory in 2017 or 2019 (or even next week)? Absolutely.

But 2005 was not the year of a 51.6% victory. 2005 was the year of a 60% victory. A match flipping on its head by that much in the span of one year with no specific reason to attribute to it, I don't accept as very plausible or likely.
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1316
Lopen
12/04/18 6:00:11 PM
#50
creativename posted...
I do not have any confidence in trying to predict a 2K4 match between these two, but clearly at this point people should be able to concede a 2K4 Samus victory is no longer something you can dismiss out of hand.


Sure you do because there's no reason to expect any matchup to flip over 10% from year to year without a significant release or factor specific to one of the characters to point to.

Let it be known I predicted this meeting within 1% too, if we're keeping score.
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TopicGauntlet Crew Ranks Sci Fi Films I-2
Lopen
12/04/18 5:44:29 PM
#293
Yeah exactly. Basically my feeling is like

As a horror movie Alien is top tier
As an action movie Aliens is quite good, but not like, amazing or anything.

However, generally speaking I like action a lot more than horror, ergo I like Aliens more. But I feel like objectively Alien is probably better at what it's trying to do.

Although I will say some of the improvements Aliens makes to the formula could have been backtracked to Alien and made it better. Like comparing the movies it's definitely not all genre specific or anything.
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TopicGauntlet Crew Ranks Sci Fi Films I-2
Lopen
12/04/18 5:22:41 PM
#291
I can respect Alien > Aliens. Aliens has better pacing and action, and better character interactions, but Alien is the more unique film experience by a lot and stands out among its peers a bit more (largely due to less competition, to be fair), which does mean something.

I'm in the Aliens squad myself but Alien does a lot of things well and in some ways I would call it the movie of the two that is more "essential viewing" despite preferring Aliens, just because you can kinda get "Aliens but better" from a lot of movies imo while Alien to me would be the quintessential suspense driven film.
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1316
Lopen
12/04/18 5:03:37 PM
#35
Bowser this year? Probably

Speedbump was a bit strong though. I'm not expecting a blowout but I think they should be thought of as a clear favorite by a few percent.
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TopicDid anyone try the new Fuck You mode in Kirby Star Allies
Lopen
12/04/18 4:59:40 PM
#6
Knowing that this mode exists makes me very happy and eager to play this game on my new Switch

Hope it doesn't disappoint. Difficulty has always been the major weakness of the Kirby series.
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1316
Lopen
12/04/18 4:53:11 PM
#33
You're using a SFF match to get her expected percentage on Mario which isn't necessarily going to be reliable. Although the intuitive approach would be that Seph is indirectly stronger than Tifa which only helps Samus's case more measuring that way since Mario would ve expected to win outright if Seph > Tifa. But yeah I wouldn't say "she's slightly weaker" is a given. Unfortunately we get Tifa/Samus 2 instead of Tifa vs Mario or Seph vs Samus which would really clear everything up but yeah
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TopicFinal Fantasy Record Keeper Topic 42.b: The Haunted Seven's curse was the purge.
Lopen
12/04/18 4:37:17 PM
#245
No Wind (like 200 myth on an old Cloud/Zack fest banner)
No Earth (like 200 myth on Galuf/Gilg Chain)
No Light (haven't really tried)
No Water (8 billion draws)
2 Ice (Rinoa and 2x Snow, never drawn for either. Daily for Rinoa + 100 gem + Lucky for Snow)
3 Fire (never drew for any. Got Locke on a banner while drawing for Sabin USB, Gilgx2 as consolation while going for Galuf Chain and Vincent on FFVII realm draw)
2 Dark (Seymour + Golbez on 100 gem for Seymour and 15 myth IV Realm for Golbez)
1Lightning (Garnet from draw of a Legend Select)

So yeah basically have terrible luck on drawing for them but it balances out a bit
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1316
Lopen
12/04/18 3:47:46 PM
#29
I think this year had more signs for Samus doing well in Tifa and Zelda going crazy. Hell Chun Li too. The Girl Power sugoi~ factor is real.

Samus's fame in 04 was basically dispatching Sonic easily and putting a up a good number on Cloud. Sonic projected as weak that year through Ryu though.

The STATS said Samus blows Mario up in 04, a stats humiliation which stats purists have pinned on 05 Mario seemingly being stronger than 04 Mario, but I feel like Samus 18 is stronger than 04 or 05 Samus anyway.
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1316
Lopen
12/04/18 3:20:31 PM
#26
snake_5036 posted...
The bad pixel crud hair is an issue with every character with hair in MGSV, tbh. I'm replaying it now and the hair is basically the same as Skyrim's hair on cows and mammoths. Pretty bad to look at these days.


Yes but you can at least properly crop out the image. Quiet's pic this year looked like it was done in MS Paint.
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1316
Lopen
12/04/18 3:19:33 PM
#24
ZeldaTPLink posted...
You think Pika and Mega make it close to Cloud?


I think Cloud being in the third tier and competitive with Mega Man and Pika is more likely than Crono beating Mega and Pika easily. Crono hasn't really done a lot to warrant much faith in him unless you think really highly of Bowser.

We'll see in a few days though.
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1316
Lopen
12/04/18 3:05:17 PM
#20
He got 54.88% on Bowser and lost easily to Cloud dude.

Pika or Mega are going to speedbump him imo.
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1316
Lopen
12/04/18 2:57:02 PM
#17
I'd give Pika way higher than 1 in 10000 of being stronger than Zelda.

Way I see it currently:

1. Link
-tier-
2. Mario
3. Samus
4. Cloud
-tier-
5. Pikachu
6. Mega Man
7. Zelda
8. Snake
-tier-
9. Sephiroth
10. Tifa
Crono
Sonic
Luigi
MMX
Bowser
Kirby
Alucard
Ganondorf
Zero
Yoshi
A bunch of other dudes

So really the idea of a noble nine doesn't fit right now. If I had to shoehorn someone into the top 9 I'd probably wedge Sephiroth or Crono in but both feel too weak to really be on a higher tier than most of the upper carders we have. They both seem really beatable. Heck I still feel like Kirby is probably a better fit than those two, Bowser beating him be damned.
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1316
Lopen
12/04/18 2:45:59 PM
#15
3 guys sandwiched in between a match that ended closer than 51-49 huh? Bold.
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TopicIf It Were Up to Board 8: Snake vs. Sonic and Samus vs. Amaterasu
Lopen
12/04/18 2:36:17 PM
#54
Snake
Samus
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1316
Lopen
12/04/18 2:31:04 PM
#9
For the record I was not saying Quiet would get a ton of design votes if she had a good pic as much as I believe her bad pixel crud hair in her match pic this year got anti-voted.
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Topic~Character Battle X Spread Betting~ Losers Round 2: Pikachu (-1), Crono (-9)
Lopen
12/04/18 2:29:10 PM
#14
MAX on Mega Man and Bowser parlay
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1316
Lopen
12/04/18 2:16:49 PM
#7
UltimaterializerX posted...
Nah this match vindicates the people who thought Samus could win.


Not really. This match is less close in 2004 imo.

The concept of Samus being able to win has at least been proven but I think her best chance ever, barring a new hit metroid game, is going to be in a few days when these two rematch.
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TopicFinal Fantasy Record Keeper Topic 42.b: The Haunted Seven's curse was the purge.
Lopen
12/04/18 2:15:26 PM
#241
Yes I do in fact. I've put like 1000 mythril into water chain banners and have come up dead every time
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TopicFinal Fantasy Record Keeper Topic 42.b: The Haunted Seven's curse was the purge.
Lopen
12/04/18 2:14:33 PM
#239
I wish I could trade one of my three fire chains to you
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1315
Lopen
12/04/18 2:13:50 PM
#496
Quiet wins if she gets a good pic. If she has poorly cropped pixel crud hair again Shantae wins with like 60%
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TopicFinal Fantasy: Brave Exvius Topic 52 - Ready 2B Disappointed? A2-time banner.
Lopen
12/04/18 2:01:57 PM
#268
voltch posted...
FGO is super grindy if you want more than what the event offers, which is never necessary for clearing hard content.

Lopen plays pretty casually and I bet he's close to clearing the shop of any essentials.


That's about right. If you minimalist clear everything you can play like one or two days a week, afk everything else, and still have a viable team since the game gives you so many stamina refreshes.

You can go hardcore grindy on a lot of events, like the current one, but there's really not a ton of incentive to. There's a huge amount of diminishing returns in raising up more than 14 servants or so.
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TopicMario vs. Samus
Lopen
12/04/18 11:55:24 AM
#23
Samus got this on the rematch (I backed off supporting this one after Seph made things respectable with Tifa, but in Loser's Samus got this)
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TopicFinal Fantasy: Brave Exvius Topic 52 - Ready 2B Disappointed? A2-time banner.
Lopen
12/04/18 11:53:27 AM
#258
BakusaiTenketsu posted...
I played FGO for a couple months when it launched. I couldn't get into it, but I tried. I rerolled until I had a Zhuge Liang and Berserker, and kept up with the Joneses for a bit, but the grind burnt me out quick.


What

This game is way more grindy than FGO unless you're Mac Arrowny
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TopicCharacter Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 9
Lopen
12/04/18 11:46:10 AM
#228
Lopen's unofficial analysis x2

Mega Man v Pikachu
Mega Man out for REVENGE. Expect defectors. He'll also have a much better picture this time, probably. Those two combine and he wins somewhat comfortably on the rematch.

Mega Man with 53.85%

Crono v Bowser
Bowser? Not so lucky.

Crono with 53.85%
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TopicMaria ranks all 141 League champs blind
Lopen
12/03/18 8:54:43 PM
#398
I like both Evelynns

In terms of general look and concept I'll take the new one but I felt the old one had better skins in general by a lot. I'd probably most want to use default Evelynn nowadays. Shadow Evelynn was improved but not much else.
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TopicCharacter Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 9
Lopen
12/03/18 8:50:03 PM
#212
Samus will win in like 10 days fear not
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TopicReject Battle X! FINALS - Missile v. CATS
Lopen
12/03/18 8:40:53 PM
#23
CATS
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TopicCharacter Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 9
Lopen
12/03/18 7:52:58 PM
#209
I voted Samus just for upset's sake but I prefer Mario
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1315
Lopen
12/03/18 7:41:39 PM
#266
_SecretSquirrel posted...
What's funny is that Samus isn't even really increasing. Mario is just falling off a cliff.


Half the time rallies/cheating/whatever looks like that because they are both supposed to fall of the cliff due to lowered vote intakes and only one ends up falling because they're artificially being lifted in some way.

I remember people said this like 50 times in the confirmed cheating match of Tommy Vercetti vs Kefka "no unnatural increase he just fell off" and yeah it doesn't mean anything.
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TopicFinal Fantasy Record Keeper Topic 42.b: The Haunted Seven's curse was the purge.
Lopen
12/03/18 7:37:34 PM
#231
I got Vivi's USB from the last select and my Zidane is (unfortunately) quite stacked. Garnet and Eiko are also passable support with their bursts and me having Vivi and Garnet dived. With Amarant and his Ultra to round out the team I should have a vaguely decent shot at 50% on the ???, which is weird to say considering it was one of my weaker realms previously.
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1315
Lopen
12/03/18 7:31:50 PM
#220
26 vote cut from Samus

Make your time Mario.
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TopicShould Link be retired from GameFAQs Contests?
Lopen
12/03/18 7:22:18 PM
#16
No if this site wants to vote Link every time I say let them. Wins over kiddie pool level competition aren't worth it. Just do a legend bracket type thing like this one. Maybe just put Mario/Samus/Link/Cloud in it and let the others live in the normal bracket.
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TopicCharacter Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 9
Lopen
12/03/18 7:07:39 PM
#200
Should've went strong with the double upset Girl Power Sugoi~ at least I would've had some damage control for FAILURE SPEED.
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TopicFinal Fantasy Record Keeper Topic 42.b: The Haunted Seven's curse was the purge.
Lopen
12/03/18 7:00:13 PM
#229
Have about 200 myself. Will mostly be skipping this next fest but I'll do RoP and maybe the Rydia earth banner for a draw or two.
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TopicCharacter Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 9
Lopen
12/03/18 6:15:13 PM
#190
2005 crew was dark times. What a band of goofs
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TopicIf It Were Up to Board 8: Link vs. Zero and Alucard vs. Phoenix Wright
Lopen
12/03/18 2:21:05 PM
#68
Zero
Alucard
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1315
Lopen
12/03/18 2:14:37 PM
#54
Isn't MWC one of the biggest Link supporters out there

You can't really complain about Mario's character while being a hardcore Link supporter. That double standard is way too glaring.
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TopicCharacter Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 9
Lopen
12/03/18 1:49:51 PM
#165
I actually agree with you. Think pretty much every close match (like 53-47 or closer) will flip in Loser's. Guess time will tell

Of course Mario COULD beat Samus this time with like 65% just because I'm always wrong somehow even when consensus thinks I'm right
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TopicCharacter Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 9
Lopen
12/03/18 1:25:21 PM
#163
Lopen's Unofficial Guest Analysisx2

Zelda v Sonic
To hell with it, I'm going down with the ship here. To me this is a bunch of my theories lining up vs "dude I don't know this contest at all I'll just go with the flow here" and well, if I was one to give up on things cause I don't know I would've quit these things long ago to save face because I obviously don't know this contest at all. Let's explain why Sonic will win.

- Snake overperformed vs Auron cause of the infamous FF/MGS SFF. I thought it was mostly PS Era FF but FFX getting some of it wouldn't be surprising. This makes Sonic appear weaker than he should be.
- Sonic will HIERARCHY Zelda here even if he's indirectly a bit weaker as a respected figure in the Nintendo community.

These two combine and it means Sonic will squeak out a close win.

And with this, I've guaranteed Sonic won't win. Sorry Sonic :(

SONIC SPEED with 52.85%

Samus v Mario
When Seph/Tifa started I was ready to just put "GIRL POWER SUGOI~" and have Samus win with 53% and call it a day. Now I do think "GIRL POWER SUGOI~" exists but I'm less convinced it's enough to flip anything here. Mario beat Samus by more than Sephiroth had beaten Tifa and Tifa ultimately didn't win by much in the end as Seph did huge damage control after the opening bit, so while I expect Samus to make it much closer this time around, I don't think she can quite win outright. The power gap is just too high.

Mario with 52.85%
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Topic~Character Battle X Spread Betting~ Legends Round 2: Zelda (-10), Mario (-13)
Lopen
12/03/18 11:30:47 AM
#13
Max parlay on Sonic and Samus
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TopicFate/Grand Order Topic 13: Merry Christmas...?
Lopen
12/03/18 11:29:36 AM
#43
Still at 0 boxes.

I blame buying a Diablo 3 switch for Black Friday and realizing what an actual fun game feels like to play again

What a pity. The rewards on this one are pretty sweet but I don't think I'm going to get past the base amount of boxes here.
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